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MSU

Michigan State 13 at Maryland 27

MD
2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · SECU Stadium
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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:44 · Ben Patton 33 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Home team on offense+3.3Pregame prior+13.7Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:41: Colby McDonald run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK) — MD win probability +3.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:24: Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 8 yds for a TD, (J. Stone Run For Two-point Conversion) — MSU win probability +6.4 pts (now 36%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 4:19: Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Antwain Littleton II for 4 yds to the Mary 24 — MD win probability +4.9 pts (now 69%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:42: Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 5 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK) — MD win probability +8.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 7:54: Chad Ryland 51 yd FG GOOD — MD win probability +4.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 6 of 9MSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00MD 4th & 1 at MSU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.3%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    69.8%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:45MSU 4th & 11 at MSU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:19MD 4th & 4 at MD 28, up 7
    Close callPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:44MSU 4th & 14 at MD 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    23.6%−3.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:17MD 4th & 1 at MD 29, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q3 14:08MSU 4th & 15 at MSU 20, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−2.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:26MD 4th & 7 at MSU 25, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    73.5%−6.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:25MSU 4th & 20 at MSU 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−2.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:25MD 4th & 1 at MSU 47, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    82.5%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:22MD 4th & 10 at MSU 32, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    85.2%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:49MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 36, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:39MD 4th & 1 at MSU 1, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    86.0%−2.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    80.7%−7.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:54MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 3, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:54MD 4th & 3 at MSU 33, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.9%−0.9
    49% to make
    Punt
    90.3%−1.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:24MSU 4th & 10 at MD 19, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%−1.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    5.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−2.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:27MD 4th & 18 at MD 37, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 9:15MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:45MSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:41MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:24MSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    32.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:42MD Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1TD
12 plays · 93 yds · 5:4570% → 71%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
69.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for no gain to the Mary 7Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+6
69.7%
Roman Hemby run for 6 yds to the Mary 13Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+16
69.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 16 yds to the Mary 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+20
69.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 20 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
69.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
69.7%
Antwain Littleton II run for 2 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+21
69.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 21 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
69.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for no gain to the MchSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
69.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 5 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+4
69.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 4 yds to the MchSt 19Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+4
69.7%
Antwain Littleton II run for 4 yds to the MchSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
71.4%
Antwain Littleton II run for 15 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 3:2529% → 33%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+18
70.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 18 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
70.4%
Jalen Berger run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 40Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+5
70.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 5 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+14
70.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Daniel Barker for 14 yds to the Mary 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
70.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 9 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+12
69.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 12 yds to the Mary 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
69.9%
Elijah Collins run for 8 yds to the Mary 12Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+12
66.9%
Elijah Collins run for 12 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 2:0168% → 73%
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+44
68.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 44 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
69.1%
Colby McDonald run for 3 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+15
69.1%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MchSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
69.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Colby McDonald for 14 yds to the MchSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
72.7%
Colby McDonald run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:5629% → 28%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
71.5%
Jalen Berger run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 22Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+10
71.6%
THORNE, Payton pass to the left incomplete intended for COLEMAN, Keon thrown to the MSU43. PENALTY UMD Holding on BANKS, Deonte enforced 10 yards from the MSU22 to the MSU32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
71.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 9 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 1
OWN 41
0
70.7%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 1
OWN 41
-10
70.8%
BERGER, Jalen rush to the right for a gain of 8 yards to the MSU49 (TRADER JR., Dante). PENALTY MSU Holding on SAMAC, Nick enforced 10 yards from the MSU41 to the MSU31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 11
OWN 31
0
71.9%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:45
4TH & 11
OWN 31
+14
72.1%
Bryce Baringer punt for 61 yds , Jeshaun Jones returns for 14 yds to the Mary 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2672% → 71%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
71.8%
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the Mary 22Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+6
71.7%
Roman Hemby run for 6 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
71.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:25
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
71.1%
SPANGLER, Colton punt 38 yards to the MSU34, REED, Jayden return 4 yards to the MSU38 (TRADER JR., Dante), clock 00:25. PENALTY MSU Illegal Block in the Back Before the snap, UMD Illegal Formation , Offsetting penalties. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:19
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
71.1%
Colton Spangler punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6MISSED FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:1629% → 27%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
71.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarek Broussard for 5 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+8
70.6%
Jarek Broussard run for 8 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+18
70.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 18 yds to the Mary 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+19
69.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarek Broussard for 19 yds to the Mary 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
69.6%
Jarek Broussard run for 4 yds to the Mary 8Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 6
OPP 8
-10
69.6%
COLLINS, Elijah rush to the right for a gain of 3 yards to the UMD5 (BARHAM, Jaishawn). PENALTY MSU Holding on BROWN, Spencer enforced 10 yards from the UMD8 to the UMD18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 16
OPP 18
+2
71.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 2 yds to the Mary 16Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 14
OPP 16
0
72.1%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:44
4TH & 14
OPP 16
+33
73.3%
Ben Patton 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2773% → 73%
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
73.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
73.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 8 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
72.9%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the Mary 29Similar
Q2 10:17
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
72.6%
Colton Spangler punt for 56 yds , Jayden Reed returns for no gain to the MchSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8TD
14 plays · 85 yds · 5:5327% → 36%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
73.2%
Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
73.2%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+11
73.8%
Payton Thorne run for 11 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
72.9%
Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+18
72.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Berger for 18 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
71.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Berger for 1 yd to the MchSt 49Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+8
71.8%
Elijah Collins run for 8 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+5
71.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 5 yds to the Mary 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
71.4%
THORNE, Payton pass to the left incomplete intended for COLEMAN, Keon thrown to the UMD7. PENALTY UMD Pass Interference on BENNETT, Jakorian enforced 15 yards to the UMD23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
70.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 1 yd to the Mary 22Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+10
70.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 10 yds to the Mary 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
70.5%
Jarek Broussard run for 4 yds to the Mary 8Similar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
70.5%
Jarek Broussard run for 4 yds to the Mary 8Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
64.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 8 yds for a TD, (J. Stone Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 3:3769% → 80%
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
69.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Antwain Littleton II for 4 yds to the Mary 24Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
69.3%
Antwain Littleton II run for 3 yds to the Mary 27Similar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+15
68.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to CJ Dippre for 15 yds to the Mary 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
70.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 41Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+12
69.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 12 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
71.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 6 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+8
71.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 8 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
72.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
72.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+14
70.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 14 yds to the MchSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
72.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 4 yds to the MchSt 15Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+10
72.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 10 yds to the MchSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
80.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 5 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10MISSED FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 0:2923% → 26%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
77.0%
THORNE, Payton pass to the right intercepted by TRADER JR., Dante at the MSU47 intended for REED, Jayden. Trader Jr. return for 47 yards to the MSU0, TOUCHDOWN UMD, score nullified by penalty, clock 00:29 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY UMD Personal Foul on COLEY JR., Corey enforced 15 yards from the MSU25 to the MSU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
75.2%
Jalen Berger run for 11 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
75.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Berger for no gain to the Mary 49Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-5
76.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Nick Samac) to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+5
78.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 5 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+14
78.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 14 yds to the Mary 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
74.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 7 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+45
74.0%
Jack Stone 45 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:5223% → 21%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for no gain to the MchSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
77.1%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
77.9%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-5
78.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Hank Pepper) to the MchSt 20Similar
Q3 14:08
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+11
78.9%
Bryce Baringer punt for 59 yds , Jeshaun Jones returns for 11 yds to the Mary 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 5:4279% → 83%
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
78.9%
Antwain Littleton II run for 3 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+5
79.0%
Colby McDonald run for 5 yds to the Mary 40Similar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+2
79.3%
Antwain Littleton II run for 2 yds to the Mary 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-4
80.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Colby McDonald for a loss of 4 yards to the Mary 38Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 14
OWN 38
+13
79.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 13 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+3
79.6%
Antwain Littleton II run for 3 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
80.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Antwain Littleton II for 18 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
80.6%
Antwain Littleton II run for 1 yd to the MchSt 27Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
80.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to CJ Dippre for no gain to the MchSt 27Similar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+2
79.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 2 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q3 8:26
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+43
83.2%
Chad Ryland 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5718% → 16%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
82.0%
Jalen Berger run for 14 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
81.6%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-2
81.8%
Jalen Berger run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 33Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 12
OWN 33
-8
82.9%
Payton Thorne sacked by Taizse Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the MchSt 25Similar
Q3 6:25
4TH & 20
OWN 25
+4
84.3%
Bryce Baringer punt for 51 yds , Tarheeb Still returns for 4 yds to the Mary 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14MISSED FG
13 plays · 40 yds · 5:0384% → 88%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
84.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 16 yds to the Mary 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
85.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Antwain Littleton II for 5 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+2
85.2%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+2
84.5%
Antwain Littleton II run for 2 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q3 6:25
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+4
83.8%
Antwain Littleton II run for 4 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
85.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Simeon Barrow for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 44Similar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+5
88.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 5 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+7
88.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 7 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
88.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
88.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 10
OPP 32
0
88.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:22
4TH & 10
OPP 32
+50
87.6%
Chad Ryland 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3313% → 12%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
87.2%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
87.7%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q3 1:22
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
87.5%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:49
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
88.4%
Bryce Baringer punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jeshaun Jones at the Mary 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 85 yds · 4:1088% → 90%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
87.9%
Antwain Littleton II run for 2 yds to the Mary 16Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+10
89.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 10 yds to the Mary 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
89.1%
Antwain Littleton II run for 4 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+68
89.1%
Antwain Littleton II run for 68 yds to the MchSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
90.1%
Antwain Littleton II run for 1 yd to the MchSt 1Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
90.1%
Antwain Littleton II run for no gain to the MchSt 1Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
89.8%
Antwain Littleton II run for no gain to the MchSt 1Similar
Q4 11:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
90.1%
Antwain Littleton II run for no gain to the MchSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:459% → 8%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
91.0%
Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the MchSt 5Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 6
OWN 5
0
91.2%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 6
OWN 5
0
91.6%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Brian Greene) to the MchSt 3Similar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 8
OWN 3
0
91.6%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:54
4TH & 8
OWN 3
0
92.0%
Bryce Baringer punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jeshaun Jones at the Mary 48Similar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
92.3%
TAGOVAILOA, Taulia pass up the middle complete for 10 yards to JONES, Jeshaun caught at the MSU41 and advanced to the MSU42 (BROOKS, Kendell). PENALTY UMD Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on BRANCH, Johari enforced 5 yards from the UMD48 to the UMD43. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18FG
6 plays · 19 yds · 3:0092% → 96%
Q4 10:54
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+12
92.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 12 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+5
92.5%
Roman Hemby run for 5 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
92.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
92.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 4 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q4 10:54
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+3
92.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 3 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q4 7:54
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+51
96.2%
Chad Ryland 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19DOWNS
16 plays · 62 yds · 3:305% → 3%
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
95.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 7 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+12
95.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 12 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
95.0%
Payton Thorne run for 3 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+4
94.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 4 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+4
95.0%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
94.9%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
94.9%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+8
95.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Daniel Barker for 8 yds to the Mary 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
94.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 5 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
94.2%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+4
95.7%
THORNE, Payton pass to the right intercepted by BRADE, Beau at the UMD11 intended for FOSTER, Montorie. Brade return for 19 yards to the UMD30, out of bounds, clock 05:01. PENALTY UMD Offsides on ROYE JR., Andre enforced 4 yards from the UMD30 to the UMD26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+7
95.7%
Jalen Berger run for 7 yds to the Mary 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
95.3%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
95.5%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
95.9%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:24
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+6
97.0%
Payton Thorne run for 6 yds to the Mary 13 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, turnover on downs, . PENALTY Holding on BROWN, Spencer ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20PUNT
12 plays · 24 yds · 3:5198% → 99%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
97.5%
Antwain Littleton II run for 1 yd to the Mary 14Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+5
97.6%
Antwain Littleton II run for 5 yds to the Mary 19Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+26
97.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to CJ Dippre for 26 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
97.8%
LITTLETON II, Antwain rush to the left for no gain to the UMD45 (BRANTLEY, Charles;MANGHAM, Jaden). PENALTY UMD Holding on GLAZE, Delmar enforced 10 yards from the UMD45 to the UMD35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:13
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+5
97.6%
Roman Hemby run for 5 yds to the Mary 40Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 15
OWN 40
-1
97.7%
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 39Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 16
OWN 39
+3
97.7%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the Mary 42Similar
Q4 0:36
4TH & 13
OWN 42
-5
98.5%
MARYLAND Penalty, Illegal Snap on GOUGH, Ethan enforced (-5 Yards) to the Mary 37Similar
Q4 0:27
4TH & 18
OWN 37
0
98.6%
Colton Spangler punt for 47 yds, downed at the MchSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:271% → 1%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
98.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 5 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 21
0
98.6%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Payton Thorne) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:42
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 5 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)
+8.3
TD · Q2 4:24
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 8 yds for a TD, (J. Stone Run For Two-point Conversion)
-6.4
KEY PLAY · Q2 4:19
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Antwain Littleton II for 4 yds to the Mary 24
+4.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com