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PUR

Purdue 20 at Minnesota 10

MINN
2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadPUR aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scorePUR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:51 · Matthew Trickett 28 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Pregame prior+20.0Home team on offense−3.5Score differential−2.0Garbage-time factor−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:06: Bryce Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK) — MINN win probability +13.7 pts (now 71%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 8:06: Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Payne Durham for 4 yds to the Prdue 29 — PUR win probability +7.6 pts (now 37%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 4:57: Mitchell Fineran 25 yd FG GOOD — PUR win probability +21.7 pts (now 70%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:57: Tanner Morgan pass complete to Bryce Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 24 — MINN win probability +9.8 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 3:13: Devin Mockobee run for 2 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK) — PUR win probability +19.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 6 of 8PUR made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 13:25MINN 4th & 10 at MINN 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:45PUR 4th & 8 at PUR 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:36MINN 4th & 1 at MINN 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    67.8%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:07PUR 4th & 6 at MINN 25, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.4%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    31.0%−2.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:51MINN 4th & 10 at PUR 10, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    61.2%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:22MINN 4th & 9 at PUR 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    56.5%−2.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:09MINN 4th & 3 at MINN 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:55PUR 4th & 4 at PUR 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:40PUR 4th & 14 at PUR 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−3.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:39PUR 4th & 2 at PUR 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:06MINN 4th & 13 at MINN 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−3.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:02PUR 4th & 7 at MINN 40, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    42.0%−2.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%−1.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:04MINN 4th & 2 at MINN 43, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%−2.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:57PUR 4th & 8 at MINN 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−2.8
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    19.2%−25.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:58MINN 4th & 11 at MINN 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−1.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1PUR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:59PUR Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:06MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 3:13PUR Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3576% → 76%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
76.3%
Trey Potts run for a loss of 5 yards to the Minn 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
76.3%
Trey Potts run for 5 yds to the Minn 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
76.3%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
75.9%
Mark Crawford punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 2TD
11 plays · 68 yds · 4:2624% → 28%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
75.9%
Dylan Downing run for 11 yds to the Prdue 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
75.8%
Dylan Downing run for 8 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+3
75.8%
Dylan Downing run for 3 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
75.8%
Aidan O'Connell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
75.8%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Payne Durham for 4 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+18
75.8%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Paul Piferi for 18 yds to the Minn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
75.8%
Devin Mockobee run for 10 yds to the Minn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
75.8%
Devin Mockobee run for 4 yds to the Minn 10Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+3
75.8%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Deion Burks for 3 yds to the Minn 7Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+5
75.8%
O'CONNELL, Aidan pass to the right incomplete intended for JONES, Charlie thrown to the UMN0. PENALTY UMN Pass Interference on SMITH, Terell enforced 5 yards to the UMN2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
72.4%
Dylan Downing run for 2 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3INT
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:2673% → 73%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
73.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Trey Potts for 8 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
73.3%
Trey Potts run for 3 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
73.1%
MORGAN, Tanner pass to the left incomplete intended for WRIGHT, Dylan thrown to the PUR30. PENALTY PUR Pass Interference on TAYLOR, Reese enforced 15 yards to the PUR49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
73.6%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
72.8%
Tanner Morgan pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4829% → 29%
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
71.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-15
71.5%
O'CONNELL, Aidan pass to the left complete for 13 yards to SHEFFIELD, TJ caught at the UMN45 and advanced to the UMN40 (WALLEY, Justin). PENALTY PUR Pass Interference on DURHAM, Payne enforced 15 yards to the PUR32 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 25
OWN 32
+5
72.0%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 5 yds to the Prdue 37Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 20
OWN 37
+12
72.1%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Deion Burks for 12 yds to the Prdue 49Similar
Q1 5:45
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
70.8%
Jack Ansell punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0971% → 70%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
71.1%
Bryce Williams run for 1 yd to the Minn 21Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
71.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Bryce Williams for 7 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
71.1%
Trey Potts run for 1 yd to the Minn 29Similar
Q1 3:36
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
69.5%
Cole Kramer run for no gain to the Minn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 6FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2932% → 33%
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
68.5%
Dylan Downing run for no gain to the Minn 29Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
68.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+4
68.8%
Aidan O'Connell run for 4 yds to the Minn 25Similar
Q1 2:07
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+43
67.5%
Mitchell Fineran 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7MISSED FG
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:1667% → 65%
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
66.8%
Trey Potts run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 24Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+66
66.8%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 66 yds to the Prdue 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
68.4%
Trey Potts run for 3 yds to the Prdue 7Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
67.0%
Trey Potts run for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 10Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
66.2%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
65.3%
Matthew Trickett 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 8INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:5434% → 36%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
65.9%
Kobe Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 19Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+7
66.1%
Kobe Lewis run for 7 yds to the Prdue 26Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+5
66.0%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Tyrone Tracy for 5 yds to the Prdue 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
64.1%
Aidan O'Connell pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9FG
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:3564% → 64%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
64.2%
Tanner Morgan run for 2 yds to the Prdue 49Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+21
64.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 21 yds to the Prdue 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
63.7%
Tanner Morgan sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 27Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
63.4%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
62.5%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+45
63.8%
Matthew Trickett 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 10FUMBLE
7 plays · 38 yds · 3:3337% → 44%
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
62.8%
Dylan Downing run for 2 yds to the Prdue 27Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
62.6%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 10 yds to the Prdue 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
61.9%
Dylan Downing run for 4 yds to the Prdue 41Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+14
61.4%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Deion Burks for 14 yds to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
61.0%
Aidan O'Connell sacked by Trill Carter for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 46Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+9
61.1%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 9 yds to the Minn 37Similar
Q2 6:49
3RD & 2
OPP 37
0
56.3%
Devin Mockobee run for no gain to the Minn 37 Devin Mockobee fumbled, recovered by Minn Jalen Logan-ReddingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4060% → 58%
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
60.0%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-3
59.8%
Bryce Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 34Similar
Q2 6:49
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+10
58.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 10 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q2 5:09
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
58.4%
Mark Crawford punt for 43 yds, downed at the Prdue 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1443% → 42%
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
57.5%
Dylan Downing run for 1 yd to the Prdue 14Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 9
OWN 14
0
57.8%
Aidan O'Connell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:09
3RD & 9
OWN 14
+5
58.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Dylan Downing for 5 yds to the Prdue 19Similar
Q2 3:55
4TH & 4
OWN 19
0
58.0%
Jack Ansell punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13INT
5 plays · 43 yds · 2:0459% → 60%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
59.2%
Trey Potts run for 2 yds to the Minn 48Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+5
59.3%
Tanner Morgan run for 5 yds to the Prdue 47Similar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+8
59.6%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 8 yds to the Prdue 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+28
60.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 28 yds to the Prdue 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
59.7%
Tanner Morgan pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 14INT
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:2347% → 51%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
52.8%
Dylan Downing run for no gain to the Prdue 20Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
53.1%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for no gain to the Prdue 20Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+15
54.1%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Personal Foul (Braelen Oliver) to the Prdue 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
50.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
50
0
49.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 10
50
0
49.6%
Aidan O'Connell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 10
50
0
49.0%
Aidan O'Connell pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15END OF HALF
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:2854% → 56%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
53.9%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
53.6%
Bryce Williams run for 6 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+12
54.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Bryce Williams for 12 yds to the Prdue 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
56.3%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:1648% → 48%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
52.0%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 6 yds to the Prdue 28Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-10
50.8%
DOWNING, Dylan rush to the left for a gain of 11 yards to the PUR39 (WALLEY, Justin;HOWDEN, Jordan). PENALTY PUR Holding on MILLER, Eric enforced 10 yards from the PUR28 to the PUR18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 14
OWN 18
+2
52.4%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Tyrone Tracy for 2 yds to the Prdue 20Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 12
OWN 20
-2
53.3%
Aidan O'Connell sacked by Danny Striggow for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 18Similar
Q3 12:40
4TH & 14
OWN 18
+20
52.3%
Jack Ansell punt for 54 yds , Quentin Redding returns for 20 yds to the Minn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17TD
8 plays · 52 yds · 4:3455% → 71%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
54.5%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 20 yds to the Prdue 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
56.9%
Bryce Williams run for 9 yds to the Prdue 23Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+3
56.9%
Bryce Williams run for 3 yds to the Prdue 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
56.8%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for no gain to the Prdue 20Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
56.8%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 5 yds to the Prdue 15Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+10
55.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 10 yds to the Prdue 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
56.8%
Bryce Williams run for 4 yds to the Prdue 1Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.6%
Bryce Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2737% → 37%
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
62.9%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Payne Durham for 4 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
62.2%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Payne Durham for 4 yds to the Prdue 33Similar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
62.2%
Aidan O'Connell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:39
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+4
63.3%
Jack Ansell punt for 53 yds , Quentin Redding returns for 4 yds to the Minn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 3:3365% → 61%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
65.4%
Bryce Williams run for 3 yds to the Minn 21Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+6
65.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Bryce Williams for 6 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+5
64.7%
Bryce Williams run for 5 yds to the Minn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
66.0%
Trey Potts run for 5 yds to the Minn 37Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
67.8%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 5
OWN 37
-8
65.5%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Branson Deen and Kydran Jenkins for a loss of 8 yards to the Minn 29Similar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 13
OWN 29
0
60.9%
Mark Crawford punt for 37 yds, downed at the Prdue 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 5:0441% → 43%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
59.4%
Devin Mockobee run for 1 yd to the Prdue 35Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+2
59.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 2 yds to the Prdue 37Similar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+9
60.2%
Aidan O'Connell run for 9 yds to the Prdue 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
56.8%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Dylan Downing for 2 yds to the Prdue 48Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+9
55.0%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Payne Durham for 9 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-15
54.4%
DOWNING, Dylan rush to the right for a gain of 3 yards to the UMN40 (STRIGGOW, Danny). PENALTY PUR Face mask on MBOW, Marcus enforced 15 yards from the UMN43 to the PUR42 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 25
OWN 42
0
57.8%
Aidan O'Connell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 25
OWN 42
+6
58.1%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Deion Burks for 6 yds to the Prdue 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 48
+12
58.9%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Dylan Downing for 12 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q4 13:02
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
56.8%
Jack Ansell punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:5862% → 62%
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
62.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 15 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
62.9%
Bryce Williams run for 3 yds to the Minn 38Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+3
65.1%
Bryce Williams run for 3 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+2
64.5%
Tanner Morgan run for 2 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q4 10:04
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+11
62.2%
Mark Crawford punt for 46 yds , Charlie Jones returns for 11 yds to the Prdue 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 22FG
12 plays · 70 yds · 5:0743% → 70%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
56.9%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Tyrone Tracy for 4 yds to the Prdue 26Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+8
56.4%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 8 yds to the Prdue 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
55.7%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Kobe Lewis for 3 yds to the Prdue 37Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+28
54.6%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 28 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
50.1%
Devin Mockobee run for 11 yds to the Minn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
49.5%
Devin Mockobee run for 6 yds to the Minn 18Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 4
OPP 18
0
49.4%
Aidan O'Connell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+9
51.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Dylan Downing for 9 yds to the Minn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
49.4%
Dylan Downing run for 1 yd to the Minn 8Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
49.4%
Aidan O'Connell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
51.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
29.8%
Mitchell Fineran 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5940% → 34%
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
39.6%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Bryce Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 24Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
38.8%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:57
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
36.5%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
34.1%
Mark Crawford punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Charlie Jones at the Prdue 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 24TD
2 plays · 70 yds · 0:4573% → 92%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+68
27.3%
Devin Mockobee run for 68 yds to the Minn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
8.1%
Devin Mockobee run for 2 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 25INT
5 plays · 42 yds · 1:108% → 8%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+28
7.9%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 28 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
9.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 5 yds to the Minn 48Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+9
9.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Bryce Williams for 9 yds to the Prdue 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
10.1%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
8.1%
Tanner Morgan pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · 10 yds · 1:5294% → 96%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
5.6%
Devin Mockobee run for 7 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+3
5.5%
Devin Mockobee run for 3 yds to the Minn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
4.4%
Devin Mockobee run for no gain to the Minn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 4:57
Mitchell Fineran 25 yd FG GOOD
-21.7
TD · Q4 3:13
Devin Mockobee run for 2 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK)
-19.2
TD · Q3 8:06
Bryce Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)
+13.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com