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MICH

Michigan 27 at Iowa 14

IOWA
2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · Kinnick Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:20 · Tory Taylor punt for 53 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 2 yds to the Mich 20 MICHIGAN Penalty, Illegal Block (TEAM) to the Mich 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 102Home team on offense−30.0Pregame prior−10.4Score differential−15.0Garbage-time factor−7.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:53: Ronnie Bell run for 16 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +1.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:09: Jake Moody 35 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +2.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:51: J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 12 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +10.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:56: Kaleb Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +13.7 pts (now 17%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:08: Spencer Petras pass complete to Luke Lachey for 5 yds for a TD, (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +5.4 pts (now 6%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 4 of 7MICH made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 8:25IOWA 4th & 4 at IOWA 27, down 7
    Close callPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:30MICH 4th & 9 at IOWA 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    72.6%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:28IOWA 4th & 10 at MICH 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    27.4%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:55MICH 4th & 1 at IOWA 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.9%−1.6
    49% to make
    Punt
    70.5%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:28MICH 4th & 6 at IOWA 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    69.2%−3.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:29IOWA 4th & 16 at IOWA 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:09MICH 4th & 12 at IOWA 17, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−1.1
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    73.6%−2.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:23IOWA 4th & 11 at IOWA 24, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:20IOWA 4th & 29 at IOWA 18, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−2.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:10MICH 4th & 23 at MICH 8, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−2.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:37MICH 4th & 2 at MICH 33, up 13
    Close callPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:41IOWA 4th & 2 at MICH 6, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.9%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    10.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−4.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:01MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 8, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:30IOWA 4th & 24 at IOWA 28, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:53MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 7:51MICH Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:56IOWA Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:19MICH Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:08IOWA Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0278% → 77%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
22.5%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
22.9%
Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
23.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 7 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+6
23.2%
J.J. McCarthy run for 6 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
23.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 14 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
23.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 3 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+6
23.8%
Blake Corum run for 6 yds to the Iowa 28Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+2
24.1%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Iowa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
24.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+10
24.4%
Donovan Edwards run for 10 yds to the Iowa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
23.2%
Ronnie Bell run for 16 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0024% → 24%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
23.7%
Leshon Williams run for 5 yds to the Iowa 26Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+1
23.8%
Kaleb Johnson run for 1 yd to the Iowa 27Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
23.7%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Sam LaPortaSimilar
Q1 8:25
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
23.6%
Tory Taylor punt for 52 yds , A.J. Henning returns for no gain to the Mich 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 4:3076% → 76%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
23.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 12 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
23.6%
Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+5
23.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 5 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
23.6%
Blake Corum run for 6 yds to the Iowa 49Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+4
23.5%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
23.6%
J.J. McCarthy run for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 15
50
+3
24.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 3 yds to the Iowa 47Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+3
24.1%
J.J. McCarthy run for 3 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
Q1 3:30
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
24.4%
Brad Robbins punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Arland Bruce IV at the Iowa 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 49 yds · 2:3225% → 25%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
24.9%
Leshon Williams run for 3 yds to the Iowa 12Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+10
24.7%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Holding (Rod Moore) to the Iowa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+26
24.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Luke Lachey for 26 yds to the Iowa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
25.5%
Kaleb Johnson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 8
50
+8
25.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 8 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
26.0%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Luke LacheySimilar
Q1 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
25.9%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Brody BrechtSimilar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
25.5%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Sam LaPortaSimilar
Q1 0:28
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
24.7%
Tory Taylor punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 6:5275% → 76%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
24.6%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the Mich 25Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+9
24.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 9 yds to the Mich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
24.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 7 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+5
23.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
23.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 12 yds to the Iowa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
23.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Roman WilsonSimilar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+7
23.6%
Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the Iowa 35Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+2
23.6%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q2 10:55
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+3
24.4%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Iowa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
23.5%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the Iowa 28Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+4
23.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 4 yds to the Iowa 24Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 4
OPP 24
-2
23.5%
Blake Corum run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 26Similar
Q2 8:28
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+44
23.9%
Jake Moody 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 15 yds · 4:3123% → 22%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
22.6%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 8 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
23.2%
Leshon Williams run for 2 yds to the Iowa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
22.9%
IOWA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Gennings Dunker) to the Iowa 25Similar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+19
22.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Brody Brecht for 19 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+2
23.9%
Kaleb Johnson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
23.8%
IOWA Penalty, Tripping (Connor Colby) to the Iowa 31Similar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 25
OWN 31
+11
22.1%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 11 yds to the Iowa 42Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 14
OWN 42
+2
22.5%
Leshon Williams run for 2 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 12
OWN 44
-4
22.1%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Gavin Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 40Similar
Q2 3:29
4TH & 16
OWN 40
+13
21.8%
Tory Taylor punt for 51 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 13 yds to the Mich 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7FG
16 plays · 61 yds · 3:1177% → 84%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
22.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for 8 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+3
21.9%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
21.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for 1 yd to the Mich 34Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+11
22.0%
Blake Corum run for 11 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+29
20.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 29 yds to the Iowa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-7
19.8%
J.J. McCarthy run for 3 yds to the Iowa 23 MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Darrius Clemons) to the Iowa 33Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 17
OPP 33
+4
20.4%
McCarthy, J.J. pass incomplete to Bell, Ronnie, PENALTY IOWA pass interference 4 yards to the IOWA29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 17
OPP 33
0
20.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
19.8%
Blake Corum run for 8 yds to the Iowa 21Similar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
19.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 3 yds to the Iowa 12Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+6
19.5%
Blake Corum run for 6 yds to the Iowa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
19.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Luke SchoonmakerSimilar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 7
OPP 12
-5
19.4%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Delay of Game (TEAM) to the Iowa 17Similar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 12
OPP 17
+35
17.2%
Jake Moody 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 12
OPP 17
0
16.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Roman WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 8END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
19.3%
Leshon Williams run for 6 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0720% → 19%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
20.2%
Spencer Petras sacked by Mason Graham for a loss of 9 yards to the Iowa 16Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+8
20.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Leshon Williams for 8 yds to the Iowa 24Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
19.4%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Brody BrechtSimilar
Q3 13:23
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
19.3%
Tory Taylor punt for 43 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the Mich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 5:1983% → 95%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
17.3%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+5
16.7%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+3
16.4%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
14.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 18 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
14.5%
Ronnie Bell run for 10 yds to the Iowa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
15.3%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Iowa 25Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+10
14.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 10 yds to the Iowa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
14.8%
Donovan Edwards run for no gain to the Iowa 15Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+3
14.7%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Iowa 12Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+12
4.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 12 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:008% → 7%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
8.4%
Kaleb Johnson run for 12 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
8.7%
Kaleb Johnson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 39Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+5
7.7%
Kaleb Johnson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 41 MICHIGAN Penalty, Illegal Block (3 Yards) to the Iowa 26Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 21
OWN 26
0
6.9%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Nico RagainiSimilar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 21
OWN 26
-8
6.8%
Spencer Petras sacked by Mikeq Morris and TEAM for a loss of 8 yards to the Iowa 18Similar
Q3 5:20
4TH & 29
OWN 18
+2
6.8%
Tory Taylor punt for 53 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 2 yds to the Mich 20 MICHIGAN Penalty, Illegal Block (TEAM) to the Mich 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 1:3096% → 97%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
3.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 3 yds to the Mich 24Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 7
OWN 24
-21
3.4%
J.J. McCarthy sacked by Deontae Craig for a loss of 21 yards to the Mich 3 J.J. McCarthy fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by Mich Donovan Edwards , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 28
OWN 3
+5
3.5%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the Mich 8Similar
Q3 3:10
4TH & 23
OWN 8
0
3.5%
Brad Robbins punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13TD
9 plays · 44 yds · 2:145% → 17%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
5.1%
Kaleb Johnson run for 6 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+3
5.0%
Kaleb Johnson run for 3 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+17
5.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Monte Pottebaum for 17 yds to the Mich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
5.0%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Nico RagainiSimilar
Q3 0:41
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-15
4.9%
IOWA Penalty, Personal Foul (Logan Jones) to the Mich 33Similar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 25
OPP 33
+3
4.1%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Arland Bruce IV for 3 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 22
OPP 30
+28
3.7%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 28 yds to the Mich 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
17.4%
Kaleb Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0889% → 91%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
11.1%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
11.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 7 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
9.1%
Blake Corum run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 33Similar
Q4 12:37
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
9.3%
Brad Robbins punt for 50 yds, downed at the Iowa 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15DOWNS
13 plays · 78 yds · 6:3913% → 9%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
13.2%
Kaleb Johnson run for 1 yd to the Iowa 18Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+10
13.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 10 yds to the Iowa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+34
13.5%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Luke Lachey for 34 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
14.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Arland Bruce IV for 4 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 6
OPP 34
-1
14.3%
Kaleb Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 35Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+9
12.8%
Leshon Williams run for 9 yds to the Mich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
13.6%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 7 yds to the Mich 19Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 3
OPP 19
0
13.4%
Kaleb Johnson run for no gain to the Mich 19Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+5
11.5%
Leshon Williams run for 5 yds to the Mich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
12.1%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 6 yds to the Mich 8Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 4
OPP 8
0
11.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for no gain to the Mich 8Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+2
9.3%
Leshon Williams run for 2 yds to the Mich 6Similar
Q4 5:41
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+1
9.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 1 yd to the Mich 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1995% → 95%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
5.1%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Mich 7Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+1
5.1%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the Mich 8Similar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 7
OWN 8
0
4.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 7
OWN 8
+1
4.7%
Brad Robbins punt for 51 yds , Arland Bruce IV returns for 1 yd to the Iowa 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · -14 yds · 1:155% → 4%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-9
5.0%
Spencer Petras sacked by Mike Morris for a loss of 9 yards to the Iowa 33Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 19
OWN 33
0
4.4%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Leshon WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 19
OWN 33
-5
4.0%
Spencer Petras sacked by Taylor Upshaw and Eyabi Anoma for a loss of 5 yards to the Iowa 28Similar
Q4 2:30
4TH & 24
OWN 28
0
3.9%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Brody BrechtSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18TD
5 plays · 28 yds · 0:5197% → 100%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
2.7%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the Iowa 24Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+4
1.3%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the Iowa 20Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+20
0.3%
Blake Corum run for 20 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:021% → 6%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
0.6%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Brody Brecht for 19 yds to the Iowa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
0.6%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Brody BrechtSimilar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+17
0.6%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Alec Wick for 17 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
0.7%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Mich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+19
0.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Luke Lachey for 19 yds to the Mich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
6.2%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Luke Lachey for 5 yds for a TD, (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
1.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:56
Kaleb Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Drew Stevens KICK)
+13.7
TD · Q3 7:51
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 12 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)
-10
TD · Q4 0:08
Spencer Petras pass complete to Luke Lachey for 5 yds for a TD, (Drew Stevens KICK)
+5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com