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ILL

Illinois 34 at Wisconsin 10

WIS
2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · Camp Randall Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:34 · Andy Vujnovich punt for 45 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+51.5+25.80−25.8−51.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 117Home team on offense−39.6Score differential−23.3Pregame prior+4.1Garbage-time factor−12.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:30: Tommy DeVito run for 1 yd for a TD, (Caleb Griffin KICK) — ILL win probability +4.4 pts (now 35%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:31: Tommy DeVito 1 Yd Run (Caleb Griffin Kick) — ILL win probability +7.9 pts (now 44%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:24: Tommy DeVito 1 Yd Run (Caleb Griffin Kick) — ILL win probability +8.4 pts (now 65%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 9:03: Caleb Griffin 44 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +7.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:42: Chase Brown 49 Yd Run (Caleb Griffin Kick) — ILL win probability +13.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ILL made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 9:21ILL 4th & 7 at WIS 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    30.8%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:53WIS 4th & 6 at ILL 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    64.6%−1.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:14ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:02WIS 4th & 2 at WIS 27, down 5
    Close callPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:31ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 37, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:59WIS 4th & 11 at WIS 41, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−1.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:53ILL 4th & 4 at WIS 29, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    50.8%−1.0
    58% to make
    Punt
    42.6%−9.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:03ILL 4th & 20 at WIS 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−3.7
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    56.4%−7.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:06WIS 4th & 8 at WIS 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:45WIS 4th & 2 at ILL 47, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.2%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:18ILL 4th & 6 at WIS 13, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    92.9%−2.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:34WIS 4th & 13 at WIS 21, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:22ILL 4th & 2 at ILL 42, up 24
    Close callPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:32WIS 4th & 11 at WIS 40, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:45ILL 4th & 8 at WIS 26, up 24
    Close callWent for it · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    98.2%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ILL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:15WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:30ILL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:31ILL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:24ILL Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    65.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:42ILL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WISDrive 1TD
7 plays · 53 yds · 3:1668% → 69%
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+19
68.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Skyler Bell for 19 yds to the Illin 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-4
68.4%
Braelon Allen run for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 38Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 14
OPP 38
+12
68.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 12 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+3
68.3%
Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the Illin 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
68.4%
Braelon Allen run for no gain to the Illin 23Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+2
68.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 2 yds to the Illin 21Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+21
69.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 21 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:3831% → 31%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
69.1%
Chase Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 24Similar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+35
69.1%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Brian Hightower for 35 yds to the Wisc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
68.8%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Wisc 40Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
68.8%
Tommy DeVito pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+2
68.9%
Tommy DeVito run for 2 yds to the Wisc 38Similar
Q1 9:21
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
69.3%
Hugh Robertson punt for 35 yds, downed at the Wisc 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:5170% → 69%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
69.5%
Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the Wisc 6Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 7
OWN 6
-2
69.5%
Chez Mellusi run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 4Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 9
OWN 4
0
69.4%
Graham Mertz pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4TD
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:5931% → 35%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-3
68.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 19Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 13
OPP 19
0
68.8%
Tommy DeVito pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 13
OPP 19
+13
69.5%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 13 yds to the Wisc 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
68.8%
Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the Wisc 1Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
68.8%
Chase Brown run for no gain to the Wisc 1Similar
Q1 5:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
69.2%
Chase Brown run for no gain to the Wisc 1Similar
Q1 4:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
69.7%
DEVITO, Tommy pass to the right incomplete intended for HIGHTOWER, Brian broken up by SHAW, Jay at the WIS0, clock 04:38. PENALTY WIS Pass Interference on SHAW, Jay enforced half the distance from the goal, 0 yards to the WIS1 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
65.3%
Tommy DeVito run for 1 yd for a TD, (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 4:2667% → 68%
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
66.9%
Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+9
67.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 9 yds to the Wisc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
67.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Eschenbach for 10 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
67.9%
Braelon Allen run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 47Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 13
OPP 47
-3
67.3%
Graham Mertz sacked by Isaac Darkangelo for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:03
3RD & 16
50
+25
66.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 25 yds to the Illin 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
68.1%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Illin 24Similar
Q1 0:23
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+3
68.0%
Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds to the Illin 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
67.5%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+39
67.5%
Nate Van Zelst 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:3933% → 32%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
67.0%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q2 14:31
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+9
66.9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Brian Hightower for 9 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
66.1%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+2
65.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Brian Hightower for 2 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 4
OWN 47
-1
65.8%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Keeanu Benton for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 46Similar
Q2 12:19
4TH & 5
OWN 46
-5
67.0%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (Kendall Smith) to the Illin 41Similar
Q2 12:14
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
67.8%
Hugh Robertson punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7INT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:3467% → 67%
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
66.8%
(12:09) ALLEN, Braelon rush to the left for no gain to the WIS22 (NICHOLSON, Tahveon), clock 12:03. PENALTY WIS Holding on BEACH, Tyler enforced 10 yards from the WIS22 to the WIS12. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 20
OWN 12
+22
66.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 22 yds to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
67.1%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
67.0%
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
66.7%
Graham Mertz pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8TD
11 plays · 47 yds · 2:4835% → 44%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
65.5%
Chase Brown run for 18 yds to the Wisc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
64.3%
(09:56) DEVITO, Tommy pass to the right incomplete intended for BRYANT, Pat thrown to the WIS13, clock 09:50. PENALTY WIS Pass Interference on SHAW, Jay enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards to the WIS15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
64.2%
Tommy DeVito pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+5
64.2%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 5 yds to the Wisc 9Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+4
64.9%
Tommy DeVito run for 4 yds to the Wisc 5Similar
Q2 8:22
4TH & 1
OPP 5
0
65.9%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Offsides ( Yards) to the Wisc 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
64.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Chase Brown for no gain to the Wisc 2 ILLINOIS Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on ADAMS, Isaiah enforced (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 7Similar
Q2 8:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
64.4%
(08:11) WILLIAMS, Isaiah pass to the right complete for 7 yards to CASE, Kody caught at the WIS2 and advanced to the WIS0, TOUCHDOWN ILL, score nullified by penalty, clock 08:06. PENALTY Before the snap, ILL Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the WIS7 to the WIS12. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+10
64.6%
DEVITO, Tommy pass to the right incomplete intended for BRYANT, Pat thrown to the WIS2, clock 08:02. PENALTY WIS Pass Interference on CLARK, Justin enforced 10 yards to the WIS2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
64.3%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Wisc 1Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
56.4%
Tommy DeVito 1 Yd Run (Caleb Griffin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2358% → 56%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
57.5%
Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the Wisc 22Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+5
57.1%
Chez Mellusi run for 5 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 2
OWN 27
0
56.3%
Braelon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:02
4TH & 2
OWN 27
0
55.7%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 56 yds, downed at the Illin 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:2643% → 43%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
57.2%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Brian Hightower for 9 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 1
OWN 26
0
55.6%
Chase Brown run for no gain to the Illin 26Similar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+4
54.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Brian Hightower for 4 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
54.4%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
54.2%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for no gain to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+6
56.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 6 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q2 2:31
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+13
54.5%
Hugh Robertson punt for 28 yds ILLINOIS Penalty, Kick Catch Interference on LEITZSEY, Tailon enforced (-15 Yards) to the Wisc 42Similar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
57.2%
(02:24) GUERENDO, Isaac rush to the right for a gain of 15 yards to the ILL43 (MARTIN, Jartavius), clock 02:17. PENALTY WIS Holding on ESCHENBACH, Jack enforced 10 yards from the WIS42 to the WIS32. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0255% → 52%
Q2 2:01
1ST & 20
OWN 32
0
55.0%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 20
OWN 32
+3
54.0%
Graham Mertz run for 3 yds to the Wisc 35Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 17
OWN 35
+6
52.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Eschenbach for 6 yds to the Wisc 41Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 11
OWN 41
+3
52.3%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 55 yds , Isaiah Williams returns for 3 yds to the Illin 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:3649% → 65%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
50.6%
Chase Brown run for 6 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+12
49.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Pat Bryant for 12 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+22
47.4%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Pat Bryant for 22 yds to the Wisc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
45.7%
Tommy DeVito pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+7
45.7%
Chase Brown run for 7 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 3
OPP 28
-1
45.6%
Reggie Love III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 29Similar
Q3 11:53
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+6
48.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 6 yds to the Wisc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+20
43.9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Michael Marchese for 20 yds to the Wisc 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
43.4%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Wisc 1Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
35.1%
Tommy DeVito 1 Yd Run (Caleb Griffin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14FG
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:1865% → 73%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
35.0%
Chase Brown run for no gain to the Wisc 16Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
34.4%
Tommy DeVito pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 10
OPP 16
-10
35.1%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Keeanu Benton for a loss of 10 yards to the Wisc 26Similar
Q3 9:03
4TH & 20
OPP 26
+44
27.2%
Caleb Griffin 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5329% → 26%
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
28.6%
Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
27.1%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
26.6%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:06
4TH & 8
OWN 23
+11
26.3%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 58 yds , Isaiah Williams returns for 11 yds to the Illin 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:1475% → 92%
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
24.6%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+15
23.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Pat Bryant for 15 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
21.4%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Pat Bryant for 2 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+49
7.7%
Chase Brown 49 Yd Run (Caleb Griffin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4615% → 10%
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
14.5%
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the Wisc 47Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+3
11.1%
Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 5
50
+3
10.6%
Chimere Dike run for 3 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q3 4:45
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
10.0%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18FG
10 plays · 40 yds · 5:1894% → 96%
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
6.2%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 48Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+17
5.8%
Chase Brown run for 17 yds to the Wisc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
5.3%
(03:23) DEVITO, Tommy pass up the middle complete for 6 yards to WASHINGTON, Casey to the WIS29 (HALLMAN, Ricardo), clock 03:10. PENALTY WIS Pass Interference on HALLMAN, Ricardo enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the WIS29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
5.0%
Reggie Love III run for 3 yds to the Wisc 26Similar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+6
4.7%
Reggie Love III run for 6 yds to the Wisc 20Similar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+3
4.5%
Reggie Love III run for 3 yds to the Wisc 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
4.2%
Chase Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 19Similar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 12
OPP 19
0
4.0%
Chase Brown run for no gain to the Wisc 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+6
3.9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Chase Brown for 6 yds to the Wisc 13Similar
Q4 14:18
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+31
4.0%
Caleb Griffin 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:394% → 4%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
4.4%
Graham Mertz sacked by Keith Randolph Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 21Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 13
OWN 21
0
3.7%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 13
OWN 21
0
3.6%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:34
4TH & 13
OWN 21
0
3.6%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0697% → 98%
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
3.5%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+2
3.0%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+4
2.1%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 4 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q4 11:22
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
2.0%
Hugh Robertson punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:433% → 2%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
3.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 21 yds to the Wisc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
3.1%
Graham Mertz run for 4 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
3.0%
Graham Mertz sacked by Jer'Zhan Newton and Gabe Jacas for a loss of 5 yards to the Wisc 40 ILLINOIS Penalty, Offsides (Gabe Jacas) to the Wisc 45Similar
Q4 9:37
3RD & 6
OWN 45
-5
2.7%
Graham Mertz sacked by TeRah Edwards for a loss of 5 yards to the Wisc 40Similar
Q4 8:32
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
2.3%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:4799% → 99%
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
1.2%
Chase Brown run for 12 yds to the Wisc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
1.1%
Chase Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 31Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+2
1.0%
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 11
OPP 29
+3
0.8%
Reggie Love III run for 3 yds to the Wisc 26Similar
Q4 5:45
4TH & 8
OPP 26
0
0.8%
Tommy DeVito pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23Uncategorized
16 plays · 51 yds · 5:101% → 1%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
1.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Eschenbach for 6 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+4
1.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Eschenbach for 4 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
1.2%
Graham Mertz sacked by Alec Bryant for a loss of 7 yards to the Wisc 30Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 17
OWN 30
+15
1.1%
(04:16) MERTZ, Graham pass to the left incomplete intended for DIKE, Chimere broken up by WITHERSPOON, Devon at the WIS47, clock 04:08. PENALTY ILL Unsportsmanlike Conduct on WITHERSPOON, Devon enforced 15 yards from the WIS30 to the WIS45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-15
1.1%
(04:08) MERTZ, Graham pass to the left incomplete intended for SCHIPPER, Brady thrown to the WIS49, clock 04:03. PENALTY WIS Personal Foul on NELSON, Jack enforced 15 yards from the WIS45 to the WIS30 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 25
OWN 30
+12
1.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Markus Allen for 12 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+7
1.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Dean Engram for 7 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+6
1.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Eschenbach for 6 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
1.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 9 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
0.8%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+10
0.8%
MERTZ, Graham pass to the right incomplete intended for DIKE, Chimere thrown to the ILL34, clock 01:38. PENALTY ILL Pass Interference on NICHOLSON, Tahveon enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the ILL31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+9
0.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Markus Allen for 9 yds to the Illin 22Similar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
0.9%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 1
OPP 22
0
0.8%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 1
OPP 36
-5
0.7%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Tanor Bortolini) to the Illin 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:42
Chase Brown 49 Yd Run (Caleb Griffin Kick)
-13.7
TD · Q3 10:24
Tommy DeVito 1 Yd Run (Caleb Griffin Kick)
-8.4
TD · Q2 7:31
Tommy DeVito 1 Yd Run (Caleb Griffin Kick)
-7.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com