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CMU

Central Michigan 14 at Penn State 33

PSU
2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:46 · Sean Clifford pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 49Pregame prior+37.4Home team on offense+5.2Score differential+0.8Garbage-time factor+1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:25: Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 14 yds for a TD, (Josh Rolston KICK) — CMU win probability +5.2 pts (now 13%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 6:25: Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 8 yds to the PnSt 33 — PSU win probability +2.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:58: Kaytron Allen run for 14 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +2.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:55: Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar PAT BLOCKED) — PSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:43: Sean Clifford 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — PSU win probability +2.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8CMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:38CMU 4th & 17 at CMU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:22CMU 4th & 2 at CMU 44, down 14
    Close callPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:10PSU 4th & 11 at PSU 9, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:10CMU 4th & 1 at PSU 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%−0.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:39CMU 4th & 2 at PSU 2, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    5.6%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:46PSU 4th & 4 at CMU 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    92.0%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    91.9%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:49PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:36CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:27PSU 4th & 3 at CMU 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    90.2%−<0.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    90.0%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:40PSU 4th & 11 at PSU 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:15CMU 4th & 5 at PSU 5, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.0%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    7.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−2.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:30PSU 4th & 8 at CMU 37, up 13
    Close callPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    94.3%−0.2
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:05CMU 4th & 4 at CMU 12, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:12PSU 4th & 1 at CMU 20, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.0%−0.5
    75% to make
    Punt
    96.6%−1.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:37PSU 4th & 13 at CMU 21, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−1.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:37CMU 4th & 7 at CMU 46, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.2%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:09CMU 4th & 2 at PSU 36, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5CMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:42PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:38PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:39CMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:25CMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:58PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:55PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:43PSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    97.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:174% → 4%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
96.5%
Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the CMich 24Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
96.5%
RICHARDSON, Daniel pass to the right incomplete dropped by NICHOLS, Lew thrown to the CMU26. PENALTY CMU Chop Block on SWARTOUT, Brayden enforced half the distance from the goal, 12 yards from the CMU24 to the CMU12 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 22
OWN 12
+5
96.5%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 5 yds to the CMich 17Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 17
OWN 17
0
96.5%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:38
4TH & 17
OWN 17
+5
96.3%
Luke Elzinga punt for 47 yds , Parker Washington returns for 5 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 4:5696% → 96%
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+27
96.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 27 yds to the CMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
96.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for 5 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 5
OPP 27
-3
96.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 30Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+15
96.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 15 yds to the CMich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
96.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for 6 yds to the CMich 9Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+1
96.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the CMich 8Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+4
96.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the CMich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
96.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 5Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
95.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 5 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:484% → 4%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
95.7%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
95.7%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
95.6%
Daniel Richardson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4TD
3 plays · 15 yds · 1:1196% → 96%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
95.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Theo Johnson for 11 yds to the CMich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
95.8%
Kaytron Allen run for no gain to the CMich 4Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:164% → 4%
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.0%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 6 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
96.0%
NICHOLS, Lew rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the CMU33 (CARTER, Abdul). PENALTY PSU Offsides on DENNIS-SUTTON, Dani enforced 5 yards from the CMU31 to the CMU36 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
96.0%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Jalen McGaughy for no gain to the CMich 36Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
96.0%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 8 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
95.9%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:22
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
95.7%
Luke Elzinga punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Parker Washington at the PnSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 2:1296% → 96%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
96.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Liam Clifford for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 9Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 11
OWN 9
0
96.0%
Kaytron Allen run for no gain to the PnSt 9Similar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 11
OWN 9
0
95.9%
Sean Clifford run for no gain to the PnSt 9Similar
Q1 2:10
4TH & 11
OWN 9
+12
95.6%
Barney Amor punt for 48 yds , Jordyn Williams returns for 12 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7TD
12 plays · 45 yds · 4:315% → 6%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
95.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 5 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
95.4%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+4
95.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 4 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q1 2:10
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+2
95.5%
Joel Wilson run for 2 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
95.1%
Daniel Richardson run for no gain to the PnSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+7
95.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 7 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+18
95.1%
Lew Nichols III run for 18 yds to the PnSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
95.0%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the PnSt 8Similar
Q2 13:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
95.1%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
95.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Finn Hogan for 6 yds to the PnSt 2Similar
Q2 12:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
93.7%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Finn Hogan for 2 yds for a TD, (Josh Rolston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8DOWNS
7 plays · 48 yds · 2:4894% → 94%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+26
94.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 26 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
94.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for no gain to the PnSt 45Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+16
94.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 16 yds to the CMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
94.4%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
94.4%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 4
OPP 33
0
94.3%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:46
4TH & 4
OPP 33
0
93.6%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 3:217% → 13%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
93.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Noah Koenigsknecht for 9 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 1
OWN 42
-1
93.0%
Lew Nichols III run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 41Similar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+13
93.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 13 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
92.9%
Daniel Richardson run for 2 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+10
92.9%
Myles Bailey run for 10 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
92.6%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+20
92.7%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 20 yds to the PnSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
92.6%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
87.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 14 yds for a TD, (Josh Rolston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:3690% → 89%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
90.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 8 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+15
90.6%
CLIFFORD, Sean pass up the middle incomplete intended for WASHINGTON, Parker thrown to the CMU33. PENALTY CMU Roughing the Passer on LEE, Quindario enforced 15 yards from the PSU33 to the PSU48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
90.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the PnSt 49Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
90.8%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
90.3%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:49
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
89.3%
Barney Amor punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1312% → 12%
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
88.4%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+3
88.4%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the CMich 6Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 7
OWN 6
0
88.7%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, False Start (Nick Apsey) to the CMich 3Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 10
OWN 3
0
88.7%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:36
4TH & 10
OWN 3
+14
88.5%
Luke Elzinga punt for 45 yds , Parker Washington returns for 14 yds to the CMich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:3890% → 93%
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
90.2%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+8
90.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 8 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+11
89.9%
Kaytron Allen run for 11 yds to the CMich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
90.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 1 yd to the CMich 14Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+14
93.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 14 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13INT
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:538% → 9%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.9%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
91.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 11 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
91.6%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+18
91.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 18 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
90.7%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
90.6%
Daniel Richardson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14MISSED FG
12 plays · 41 yds · 1:0592% → 91%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
91.9%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
91.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Devyn Ford for no gain to the PnSt 20Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+29
91.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 29 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
92.2%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
92.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 4 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+3
91.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 3 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+5
91.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 5 yds to the CMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
91.9%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
91.8%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+56
91.3%
Sander Sahaydak 56 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:2091% → 90%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
91.4%
Sean Clifford run for 15 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
92.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-10
92.0%
ALLEN, Kaytron rush up the middle for a gain of 35 yards to the CMU23 (KENT, Donte), out of bounds. PENALTY PSU Holding on WORMLEY, Sal enforced 10 yards from the PSU42 to the PSU32 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 32
0
91.3%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 32
+7
90.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 7 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q3 12:40
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
89.9%
Barney Amor punt for 51 yds , returns for no gain to the CMich 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16TD
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:4592% → 95%
Q3 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
91.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 4 yds to the CMich 3Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17DOWNS
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:406% → 7%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.0%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
94.0%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 11 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
93.8%
Lew Nichols III run for 8 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+31
93.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 16 yds to the PENNST 40 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
92.9%
Lew Nichols III run for 9 yds to the PnSt 16Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+9
92.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 9 yds to the PnSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
92.8%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the PnSt 6Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-15
92.8%
RICHARDSON, Daniel pass up the middle complete for 6 yards to KOENIGSKNECHT, Noah caught at the PSU3 and advanced to the PSU0, TOUCHDOWN CMU, score nullified by penalty, clock 08:53. PENALTY CMU Pass Interference on YOUNG, Marcus enforced 15 yards to the PSU21 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 21
+1
93.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 1 yd to the PnSt 20Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
-10
93.8%
RICHARDSON, Daniel pass to the right incomplete intended for HOGAN, Finn thrown to the PSU2. PENALTY CMU Holding on SWARTOUT, Brayden enforced 10 yards from the PSU20 to the PSU30 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 30
+25
93.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Noah Koenigsknecht for 25 yds to the PnSt 5Similar
Q3 7:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
93.4%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 58 yds · 4:4594% → 95%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
94.4%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+21
94.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for 21 yds to the PnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
94.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+12
94.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 12 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+20
94.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 20 yds to the CMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
94.8%
CLIFFORD, Sean pass to the left incomplete intended for STRANGE, Brenton broken up by BIGGINS, Nahree at the CMU10. PENALTY PSU Holding on TENGWALL, Landon enforced 10 yards from the CMU39 to the CMU49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+2
94.7%
Sean Clifford run for 2 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 18
OPP 47
+5
94.6%
Sean Clifford run for 5 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 13
OPP 42
+5
94.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 5 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q3 2:30
4TH & 8
OPP 37
0
94.8%
Barney Amor punt for 31 yds, downed at the CMich 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:256% → 5%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
94.0%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 3 yds to the CMich 9Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+3
94.1%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the CMich 12Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 4
OWN 12
0
94.1%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:05
4TH & 4
OWN 12
0
94.6%
Luke Elzinga punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20TD
4 plays · 52 yds · 1:2295% → 99%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
95.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the PnSt 49Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+37
96.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 37 yds to the CMich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
96.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 13 yds to the CMich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.5%
Sean Clifford 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21FUMBLE
14 plays · 53 yds · 5:313% → 2%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.3%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Noah Koenigsknecht for 7 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
97.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 8 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
97.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 6 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+3
97.1%
Marion Lukes run for 3 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+1
97.1%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
50
0
97.0%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 10
50
+5
97.0%
Lew Nichols III run for 5 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+6
97.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 6 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
97.0%
Marion Lukes run for 6 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+15
96.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 15 yds to the PnSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
96.6%
LUKES, Marion rush up the middle for no gain to the PSU18 (JACOBS, Curtis). PENALTY CMU Holding on WILSON, Joel enforced 10 yards from the PSU18 to the PSU28 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 20
OPP 28
-10
97.3%
RICHARDSON, Daniel pass to the left complete for 28 yards to WILSON, Joel caught at the PSU5 and advanced to the PSU0, TOUCHDOWN CMU, score nullified by penalty, clock 09:21. PENALTY CMU Holding on SWARTOUT, Brayden enforced 10 yards from the PSU28 to the PSU38 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 30
OPP 38
+16
97.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 16 yds Carlos Carriere fumbled, recovered by PnSt Kalen KingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22MISSED FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 5:3599% → 99%
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
98.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the PnSt 24Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
98.6%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:12
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+20
98.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Liam Clifford for 20 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
98.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 13 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
98.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 14 yds to the CMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
98.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
98.8%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:12
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
98.7%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:12
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+5
98.6%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offsides (Thomas Incoom) to the CMich 20Similar
Q4 9:12
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+2
98.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the CMich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
98.8%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the CMich 15Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
98.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for no gain to the CMich 15Similar
Q4 9:12
3RD & 7
OPP 15
-6
98.7%
Drew Allar sacked by Dakota Cochran for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 21Similar
Q4 3:37
4TH & 13
OPP 21
+38
98.9%
Jake Pinegar 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23DOWNS
12 plays · 43 yds · 3:282% → 2%
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
98.5%
Daniel Richardson sacked by Dani Dennis-Sutton for a loss of 10 yards to the CMich 11Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 20
OWN 11
+20
98.5%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Myles Bailey for 20 yds to the CMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
98.4%
Jase Bauer run for 12 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-7
98.4%
Jase Bauer sacked by Dani Dennis-Sutton for a loss of 7 yards to the CMich 36Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 17
OWN 36
0
98.5%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 17
OWN 36
+10
98.5%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 10 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q4 3:37
4TH & 7
OWN 46
+10
98.4%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Kenny Brewer III for 10 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
98.3%
BAUER, Jase pass to the left intercepted by DWYER, Robbie at the PSU38. Dwyer return for 26 yards to the CMU36 (FERRIS, Tyden), clock 00:47. PENALTY Before the snap, PSU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the PSU44 to the PSU39. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 5
OPP 39
+3
98.1%
Jase Bauer run for 3 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 2
OPP 36
0
98.1%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 2
OPP 36
0
98.1%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 2
OPP 36
0
98.3%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.3%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:25
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 14 yds for a TD, (Josh Rolston KICK)
-5.2
TD · Q3 11:55
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar PAT BLOCKED)
+3.5
KEY PLAY · Q2 6:25
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 8 yds to the PnSt 33
+2.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com