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MD

Maryland 27 at Michigan 34

MICH
2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreMD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:55 · Brad Robbins punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jeshaun Jones at the Mary 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 92Pregame prior+20.0Home team on offense+4.7Garbage-time factor+0.6Score differential+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:22: Blake Corum run for 33 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +7.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:16: J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 20 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +9.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:10: Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 4 yds for a TD, (Taulia Tagovailoa intercepted ) — MD win probability +22.1 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 0:45: Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to CJ Dippre for 18 yds for a TD, (Billy Edwards Jr. pass to Jeshaun Jones for Two-Point Conversion) — MD win probability +7.7 pts (now 9%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:45: Timeout MICHIGAN, clock 00:45 — MD win probability +7.1 pts (now 16%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 7MD made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 12:25MD 4th & 4 at MICH 35, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.5%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    13.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:10MICH 4th & 5 at MD 34, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.2%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    85.1%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:15MD 4th & 8 at MICH 34, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.5%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    19.2%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:07MICH 4th & 8 at MICH 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:34MICH 4th & 18 at MD 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−1.8
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    66.5%−4.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:36MD 4th & 11 at MD 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−1.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:22MICH 4th & 1 at MD 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    71.7%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    69.8%−2.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:55MICH 4th & 2 at MD 49, up 4
    Close callPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.2%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:17MD 4th & 9 at MD 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:07MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 10, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−1.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:01MD 4th & 9 at MD 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:45MD 4th & 1 at MD 46, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.7%−1.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:28MICH 4th & 8 at MD 20, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−1.7
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    74.3%−11.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:15MD 4th & 13 at MD 33, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:45MD 4th & 12 at MICH 18, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MD made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:52MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:22MD Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:22MICH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:16MICH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:31MICH Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−0.5
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:45MD Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    4.1%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1TD
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
88.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 10 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2FG
11 plays · 40 yds · 2:0511% → 12%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
88.6%
Roman Hemby run for 6 yds to the Mary 31Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
88.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 8 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
88.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to CJ Dippre for 5 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
88.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to CJ DippreSimilar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+15
88.5%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
88.4%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+2
88.3%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 4
OPP 35
0
88.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:25
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+53
88.0%
Chad Ryland 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 4:1088% → 88%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
88.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 6 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
88.0%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
87.7%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
87.7%
Blake Corum run for 11 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
87.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Max Bredeson for 9 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+5
87.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 5 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
87.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
87.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 5 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
87.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:10
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+52
87.8%
Jake Moody 52 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:3812% → 17%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
87.7%
Antwain Littleton II run for 16 yds to the Mary 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
87.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 7 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+12
87.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 12 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
87.1%
Antwain Littleton II run for 2 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+7
87.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Colby McDonald for 7 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+1
86.9%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the Mich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
86.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 4 yds to the Mich 26Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+12
86.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 12 yds to the Mich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
86.2%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the Mich 12Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 8
OPP 12
0
86.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+9
86.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 9 yds to the Mich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
85.8%
Antwain Littleton II run for 1 yd to the Mich 2Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
83.0%
Antwain Littleton II run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 46 yds · 1:4185% → 85%
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+24
84.5%
Blake Corum run for 24 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
85.0%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the Mary 48Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+23
84.7%
Blake Corum run for 23 yds to the Mary 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
84.9%
C.J. Stokes run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 27 C.J. Stokes fumbled, recovered by Mary Ahmad McCulloughSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6FG
6 plays · 39 yds · 1:4617% → 19%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
83.0%
Antwain Littleton II run for 11 yds to the Mary 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+26
82.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 26 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
81.6%
Ramon Brown run for 5 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 5
OPP 31
0
80.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 5
OPP 31
-3
81.2%
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 34Similar
Q2 13:15
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+52
80.9%
Chad Ryland 52 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:4881% → 80%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
80.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 18 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
81.7%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 5
OWN 48
-3
81.4%
Ronnie Bell run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 45Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
80.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Roman WilsonSimilar
Q2 11:07
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
79.6%
Brad Robbins punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jeshaun Jones at the Mary 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8INT
5 plays · 51 yds · 2:1520% → 23%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+11
80.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 11 yds to the Mary 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
79.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 12 yds to the Mary 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
78.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 2 yds to the Mary 33Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+26
77.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to CJ Dippre for 26 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
76.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass intercepted DJ Turner return for no gain to the Mich 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9MISSED FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 5:5678% → 72%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
78.1%
Blake Corum run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 27Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+4
76.5%
J.J. McCarthy run for 4 yds to the Mich 31 J.J. McCarthy fumbled, recovered by Mich Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+9
75.6%
J.J. McCarthy run for 9 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
77.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 9 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+13
77.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 13 yds to the Mary 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+21
77.5%
Blake Corum run for 21 yds to the Mary 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
78.0%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the Mary 17Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-15
77.2%
J.J. McCarthy sacked by Anthony Booker Jr. for a loss of 15 yards to the Mary 32 J.J. McCarthy fumbled, recovered by Mich Olusegun Oluwatimi , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 25
OPP 32
+7
74.5%
Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the Mary 25Similar
Q2 2:34
4TH & 18
OPP 25
+43
72.1%
Jake Moody 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5527% → 27%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.9%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-4
72.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for a loss of 4 yards to the Mary 24Similar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
73.4%
Colton Spangler punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 1:0874% → 82%
Q2 1:30
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+4
74.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 4 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
72.3%
J.J. McCarthy run for 9 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
74.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+15
72.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 15 yds to the Mary 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
74.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 6 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 4
OPP 36
0
74.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+3
74.0%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Mary 33Similar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+33
81.9%
Blake Corum run for 33 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
79.9%
Antwain Littleton II run for 6 yds to the Mary 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 3:0081% → 80%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
80.7%
Blake Corum run for 9 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
81.5%
Blake Corum run for 9 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
81.7%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the Mich 44Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+5
81.4%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+2
80.8%
Isaiah Gash run for 2 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q3 11:55
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
79.8%
Brad Robbins punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jeshaun Jones at the Mary 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 40 yds · 4:2720% → 21%
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
79.6%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the Mary 12Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+3
79.9%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the Mary 15Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+8
81.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 8 yds to the Mary 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
79.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 15 yds to the Mary 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
78.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 6 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+3
77.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 3 yds to the Mary 47Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+1
77.1%
Antwain Littleton II run for 1 yd to the Mary 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
76.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 1 yd to the Mary 49Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
76.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
77.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:17
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
79.3%
Colton Spangler punt for 41 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the Mich 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:5380% → 78%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
79.8%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Mich 13Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 7
OWN 13
-1
79.5%
Blake Corum run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 12Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 8
OWN 12
-2
78.4%
J.J. McCarthy sacked by Gavin Gibson for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 10Similar
Q3 5:07
4TH & 10
OWN 10
+8
77.5%
Brad Robbins punt for 54 yds , Jeshaun Jones returns for 8 yds to the Mary 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4425% → 22%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
75.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 1 yd to the Mary 45Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
75.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:07
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
76.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:01
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
78.4%
Colton Spangler punt for 40 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the Mich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 4:2979% → 92%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
79.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 8 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+19
79.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 19 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
80.9%
Blake Corum run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 2
50
0
81.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Andrel AnthonySimilar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 2
50
+4
80.8%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
81.6%
Blake Corum run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 47Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+14
80.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 14 yds to the Mary 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
82.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Max Bredeson for 6 yds to the Mary 27Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+7
82.0%
Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the Mary 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
91.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 20 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5011% → 34%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
89.5%
Roman Hemby run for 6 yds to the Mary 31Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
88.5%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the Mary 33Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
88.9%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the Mary 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
88.6%
Roman Hemby run for 5 yds to the Mary 42Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+4
88.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 4 yds to the Mary 46Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
89.1%
Antwain Littleton II run for no gain to the Mary 46Similar
Q4 10:45
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+4
89.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
50
+44
89.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 44 yds to the Mich 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
88.4%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the Mich 4Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
66.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 4 yds for a TD, (Taulia Tagovailoa intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19FG
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:3681% → 92%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 4 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q4 8:05
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+49
83.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 49 yds to the Mary 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
88.3%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Mary 20Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
88.7%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the Mary 20Similar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
87.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:28
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+38
91.8%
Jake Moody 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0510% → 11%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
90.2%
Roman Hemby run for 6 yds to the Mary 31Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
88.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass intercepted R.J. Moten return for no gain to the Mich 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:0994% → 98%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
93.6%
Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+5
94.6%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
94.7%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+1
94.7%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the Mary 47Similar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+47
98.4%
Blake Corum run for 47 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 2:262% → 9%
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 9 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
97.6%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the Mary 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
97.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Corey Dyches for 4 yds to the Mary 40Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-7
97.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. sacked by Mike Sainristil for a loss of 7 yards to the Mary 33Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 13
OWN 33
0
98.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 13
OWN 33
+17
98.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
50
0
97.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 10
50
-5
97.7%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mary 45Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 15
OWN 45
-6
97.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. sacked by Mike Morris for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 39Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 21
OWN 39
+23
99.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 23 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+22
99.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 22 yds to the Mich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
98.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+1
98.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for 1 yd to the Mich 15Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 9
OPP 15
-3
99.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. sacked by Derrick Moore for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 18Similar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 12
OPP 18
+18
91.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to CJ Dippre for 18 yds for a TD, (Billy Edwards Jr. pass to Jeshaun Jones for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:2997% → 97%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 11
50
-1
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:10
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 4 yds for a TD, (Taulia Tagovailoa intercepted )
-22.1
TD · Q4 14:16
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 20 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)
+9.7
TD · Q2 0:22
Blake Corum run for 33 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)
+7.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com