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M-OH

Miami (OH) 17 at Northwestern 14

NU
2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:29 · Luke Akers punt for 42 yds , Jalen Walker returns for 6 yds to the MiaOh 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 91Pregame prior+10.1Home team on offense+1.4Score differential−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Garbage-time factor−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:27: Aveon Smith pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 12 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +14.7 pts (now 42%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 8:34: Cam Porter 2 Yd Run (Adam Stage Kick) — NU win probability +21.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:23: Aveon Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +34.0 pts (now 52%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:23: Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete — NU win probability +13.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:21: Graham Nicholson 36 yd FG GOOD — M-OH win probability +33.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10M-OH made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 11:52NU 4th & 5 at NU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:58NU 4th & 5 at NU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:24M-OH 4th & 25 at M-OH 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−0.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:24NU 4th & 1 at M-OH 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.3%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    69.2%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:59M-OH 4th & 5 at M-OH 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:58M-OH 4th & 5 at M-OH 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  7. Q1 14:12M-OH 4th & 3 at NU 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    29.4%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q1 11:53M-OH 4th & 3 at NU 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    29.1%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:09M-OH 4th & 19 at NU 21, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.9%−1.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    25.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    21.5%−4.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:32NU 4th & 5 at M-OH 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    73.8%−1.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:26M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 21, down 7
    Close callPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:20NU 4th & 10 at NU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:29NU 4th & 7 at NU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:59M-OH 4th & 4 at M-OH 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−0.5
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 11:34NU 4th & 15 at NU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−3.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%
    average punt
  16. Q3 10:32M-OH 4th & 16 at M-OH 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−2.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  17. Q3 6:27NU 4th & 4 at M-OH 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    63.5%−0.7
    62% to make
    Punt
    55.5%−8.8
    average punt
  18. Q3 2:03M-OH 4th & 10 at NU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−2.0
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    30.6%−11.9
    average punt
  19. Q3 1:11NU 4th & 7 at NU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−1.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 14:08M-OH 4th & 11 at M-OH 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−3.8
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:24NU 4th & 6 at NU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−1.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:21M-OH 4th & 6 at NU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−10.9
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    21.5%−32.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2M-OH made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 3:36NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:27M-OH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 8:34NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%−0.4
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:23M-OH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:5571% → 70%
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
70.6%
Evan Hull run for 5 yds to the Nwest 15Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+8
70.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 8 yds to the Nwest 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
70.6%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Nwest 24Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
70.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+4
70.4%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 4 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q1 11:52
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
70.4%
Luke Akers punt for 37 ydsSimilar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
69.9%
Luke Akers punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -15 yds · 1:3430% → 30%
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
70.1%
Aveon Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-22
70.1%
Aveon Smith sacked for a loss of 22 yards to the MiaOh 13Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 32
OWN 13
+7
70.4%
Tyre Shelton run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 20Similar
Q1 8:24
4TH & 25
OWN 20
0
70.3%
Dom Dzioban punt for 38 yds , Donny Navarro III returns for no gain to the Nwest 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3TD
12 plays · 58 yds · 4:4870% → 73%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
70.3%
Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+12
70.4%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Marshall Lang for 12 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
70.5%
Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 7
OPP 40
-10
70.5%
WASHINGTON, Malik rush to the right for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA41 (DOWELL, Michael). PENALTY NWU Illegal Block in the Back on PORTER, Cam enforced 10 yards from the MIA40 to the NWU50 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 17
50
+7
70.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 7 yds to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+9
70.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 9 yds to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q1 8:24
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+3
70.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 3 yds to the MiaOh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+23
70.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Marshall Lang for 23 yds to the MiaOh 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
70.7%
Evan Hull run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 3Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
70.7%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 1Similar
Q1 8:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
70.5%
HULL, Evan rush up the middle for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA2 (SALOPEK, Matthew). PENALTY MIA Offsides on BLAKEY, Eli enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards from the MIA1 to the MIA0 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.4%
Ryan Hilinski run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Stage KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:3827% → 26%
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
72.6%
Aveon Smith sacked by Devin O'Rourke for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 23Similar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
72.5%
Aveon Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+7
72.5%
Aveon Smith run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q1 1:59
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
73.6%
Dom Dzioban punt for 48 yds, downed at the Nwest 22Similar
Q1 1:58
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
73.6%
Dom Dzioban punt for 48 yds, downed at the Nwest 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:5729% → 28%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
71.1%
Keyon Mozee run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 27Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
71.2%
Keyon Mozee run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q1 14:13
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+15
71.2%
SMITH, Aveon pass to the right complete for 0 yards to DAVIS, Kevin caught at the MIA32 and advanced to the MIA32 (GALLAGHER, Bryce). PENALTY NWU Horse Collar Tackle on MITCHELL, Cameron enforced 15 yards from the MIA32 to the MIA47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
71.1%
Keyon Mozee run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 45Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+9
71.2%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Jack Coldiron for 9 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q1 14:13
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
71.1%
Aveon Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:12
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
71.3%
Dom Dzioban punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Nwest 10Similar
Q1 11:53
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
71.9%
Dom Dzioban punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Nwest 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6FUMBLE
9 plays · 54 yds · 3:0374% → 75%
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
73.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 17 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
74.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 5 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+6
74.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
50
0
74.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
50
+2
74.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 2 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+18
74.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 18 yds to the MiaOh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
75.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
75.1%
Anthony Tyus III run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 26Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+2
75.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 2 yds Malik Washington fumbled, recovered by MiaOh Ryan McWoodSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7MISSED FG
16 plays · 55 yds · 6:3626% → 28%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
74.4%
Aveon Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+8
74.4%
Kevin Davis run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+10
74.0%
Keyon Mozee run for 10 yds to the MiaOh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
73.8%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 2
50
+12
72.7%
Keyon Mozee run for 12 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
72.9%
Aveon Smith run for 6 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 4
OPP 32
0
72.1%
Aveon Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+8
72.8%
Keyon Mozee run for 8 yds to the Nwest 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
72.1%
Kevin Davis run for 12 yds to the Nwest 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-10
72.1%
MOZEE, Keyon rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the NWU10 (GALLAGHER, Bryce). PENALTY MIA Holding on HOLSKEY, Reid enforced 10 yards from the NWU12 to the NWU22 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 20
OPP 22
-10
72.5%
MIAMI OH Penalty, Illegal Block (Aveon Smith) to the Nwest 26Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 24
OPP 26
+5
73.1%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Kevin Davis for 5 yds to the Nwest 21Similar
Q2 8:09
3RD & 19
OPP 21
0
75.3%
Aveon Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:09
4TH & 19
OPP 21
0
75.3%
Kevin Davis run for no gain to the Nwest 21Similar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+38
72.4%
Graham Nicholson 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 1:4776% → 77%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
76.0%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+27
76.1%
Cam Porter run for 27 yds to the MiaOh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
77.3%
Evan Hull run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 49Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 12
OWN 49
0
76.8%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+7
76.4%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 7 yds to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q2 5:32
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
76.6%
Luke Akers punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jalen Walker at the MiaOh 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0623% → 22%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
76.6%
Keyon Mozee run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 14Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 8
OWN 14
-1
76.7%
Kevin Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 13Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 9
OWN 13
-5
77.2%
MIAMI OH Penalty, False Start (Mac Hippenhammer) to the MiaOh 8Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 14
OWN 8
+13
77.7%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Miles Marshall for 13 yds to the MiaOh 21Similar
Q2 3:26
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
77.6%
Dom Dzioban punt for 59 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:0677% → 75%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
76.7%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Nwest 21Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
76.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+14
76.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 14 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
76.9%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 2 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-2
77.4%
Evan Hull run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 35Similar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
76.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
75.0%
punt blocked by Caiden Woullard blocked by Caiden WoullardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11TD
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:5328% → 42%
Q2 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
72.3%
Aveon Smith run for 1 yd to the Nwest 7Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
72.3%
MIAMI OH Penalty, False Start (Kevin Davis) to the Nwest 12Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
57.6%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 12 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:3166% → 65%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
65.5%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
65.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Jacob Gill for 15 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
67.6%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
67.9%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
66.4%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:29
4TH & 7
OWN 46
+6
64.5%
Luke Akers punt for 42 yds , Jalen Walker returns for 6 yds to the MiaOh 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3039% → 36%
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
61.5%
Keyon Mozee run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 22Similar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+2
61.5%
Keyon Mozee run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 24Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 4
OWN 24
0
62.4%
Aveon Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:59
4TH & 4
OWN 24
0
63.6%
Dom Dzioban punt for 57 yds, downed at the Nwest 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:2564% → 62%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
64.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
64.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
62.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:59
4TH & 10
OWN 19
-5
62.0%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 14Similar
Q3 11:34
4TH & 15
OWN 14
0
61.9%
Luke Akers punt for 31 yds, downed at the Nwest 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:1742% → 37%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-6
58.1%
Kevin Davis run for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 16
OWN 49
0
60.3%
Aveon Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:49
3RD & 16
OWN 49
0
61.2%
Aveon Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 16
OWN 49
0
62.6%
Dom Dzioban punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Nwest 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17DOWNS
12 plays · 58 yds · 4:0565% → 66%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
64.7%
Cam Porter run for no gain to the Nwest 15Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
64.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 10
OWN 15
-12
63.4%
HILINSKI, Ryan pass up the middle complete for 12 yards to GORDON, Thomas caught at the NWU27 and advanced to the NWU27 (BLAKEY, Eli). PENALTY NWU Chop Block on PORTER, Cam enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards from the NWU15 to the NWU7 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 17
OWN 8
+29
63.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 29 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
66.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Genson Hooper Price for 19 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
68.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 6 yds to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+2
68.7%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+3
68.2%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
69.8%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+3
69.9%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 3 yds to the MiaOh 27Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 4
OPP 27
0
68.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:27
4TH & 4
OPP 27
0
66.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18MISSED FG
13 plays · 47 yds · 4:2440% → 42%
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
60.3%
Keyon Mozee run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+10
58.7%
SMITH, Aveon pass to the right incomplete intended for COLDIRON, Jack thrown to the MIA41. PENALTY NWU Holding on AZEMA, Coco enforced 10 yards from the MIA33 to the MIA43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
57.5%
Aveon Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
58.4%
Kevin Davis run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q3 6:27
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+15
57.3%
SMITH, Aveon pass up the middle complete for -3 yards to DAVIS, Kevin caught at the MIA45 and advanced to the MIA45 (HEARD II, Rod). PENALTY NWU Roughing the Passer on ADEBAWORE, Adetomiwa enforced 15 yards from the MIA48 to the NWU37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
56.4%
Aveon Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+9
56.5%
Keyon Mozee run for 9 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q3 6:27
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+2
56.5%
Kevin Davis run for 2 yds to the Nwest 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
55.0%
Aveon Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
55.2%
Keyon Mozee run for 3 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q3 6:27
3RD & 7
OPP 23
-10
56.9%
QB Keeper SMITH, Aveon rush up the middle for no gain to the NWU23 (JOHNSON, Ryan). PENALTY MIA Holding on BREKKE, John enforced 10 yards from the NWU23 to the NWU33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:27
3RD & 17
OPP 33
+7
59.2%
Keyon Mozee run for 7 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q3 2:03
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+43
58.1%
Graham Nicholson 43 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5266% → 63%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
65.8%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
66.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
64.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:11
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
62.8%
Luke Akers punt for 47 yds, downed at the MiaOh 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 2:0341% → 38%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
58.9%
Keyon Mozee run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 11Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+2
58.8%
Keyon Mozee run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 13Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 13
-4
60.1%
Aveon Smith sacked by Adetomiwa Adebawore for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaOh 9Similar
Q4 14:08
4TH & 11
OWN 9
0
62.3%
Dom Dzioban punt for 49 yds, downed at the Nwest 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21TD
12 plays · 58 yds · 5:3466% → 91%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
65.7%
Evan Hull run for 6 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+2
66.7%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 2
50
+5
66.2%
Evan Hull run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
67.4%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 9 yds to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+6
67.6%
Evan Hull run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
69.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Genson Hooper Price for 6 yds to the MiaOh 24Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+7
69.1%
Evan Hull run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
69.1%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 15Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+6
69.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 6 yds to the MiaOh 9Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+5
67.2%
Cam Porter run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
69.1%
run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 2Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
90.8%
Cam Porter 2 Yd Run (Adam Stage Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 22TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:1116% → 52%
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
84.2%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Jalen Walker for 8 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+66
82.0%
Keyon Mozee run for 66 yds to the Nwest 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.1%
Aveon Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5962% → 58%
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
61.1%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q4 7:23
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
60.4%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:24
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
57.6%
Luke Akers punt for 48 yds, downed at the MiaOh 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 24FG
19 plays · 58 yds · 6:0346% → 93%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
54.0%
Kevin Davis run for 10 yds to the MiaOh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
52.7%
Aveon Smith run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+5
49.5%
Aveon Smith run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
49.4%
Keyon Mozee run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 47Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+6
48.8%
Aveon Smith run for 6 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q4 6:24
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+3
48.5%
Aveon Smith run for 3 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
48.1%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Nate Muersch for 2 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 8
OPP 42
-5
48.1%
MIAMI OH Penalty, False Start (Blaine Riley) to the Nwest 47Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+10
48.6%
Keyon Mozee run for 10 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+14
42.4%
Keyon Mozee run for 14 yds to the Nwest 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
38.8%
Keyon Mozee run for 1 yd to the Nwest 22Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+2
37.9%
Tyre Shelton run for 2 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
Q4 0:26
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+1
40.4%
Tyre Shelton run for 1 yd to the Nwest 19Similar
Q4 0:21
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+36
6.6%
Graham Nicholson 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 25FUMBLE
3 plays · 30 yds · 0:1717% → 16%
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
17.0%
PORTER, Cam pass to the left incomplete intended for KIRTZ, Bryce broken up by ROGERS, Camden at the NWU33. PENALTY Before the snap, MIA Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the NWU25 to the NWU30. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+4
19.0%
Cam Porter pass complete to Marshall Lang for 4 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q4 0:04
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+21
16.4%
Cam Porter pass complete to Malik Washington for 21 yds Malik Washington fumbled, recovered by MiaOh Ja'Von KimpsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:23
Aveon Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Graham Nicholson KICK)
-34
FG · Q4 0:21
Graham Nicholson 36 yd FG GOOD
-33.8
TD · Q4 8:34
Cam Porter 2 Yd Run (Adam Stage Kick)
+21.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com