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MINN

Minnesota 34 at Michigan State 7

MSU
2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:58 · Bryce Baringer punt for 48 yds , Quentin Redding returns for 3 yds to the Minn 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 16Home team on offense−1.5Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.6Pregame prior−8.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:57: Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 23 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK) — MINN win probability +5.0 pts (now 67%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 10:14: Matthew Trickett 26 yd FG GOOD — MINN win probability +1.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 12 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST down — MSU win probability +11.0 pts (now 21%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:26: Tanner Morgan pass complete to Nick Kallerup for 6 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK) — MINN win probability +8.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:08: Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 4 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK) — MINN win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6MINN made the numbers' call on 0 of 2
  1. Q1 7:58MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:29MSU 4th & 16 at MSU 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−1.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:14MINN 4th & 6 at MSU 8, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.8%−<0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−6.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:29MSU 4th & 4 at MINN 46, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    27.8%−1.4
    23% to make
    Punt
    28.6%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:45MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 48, down 17
    Close callPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q4 12:25MSU 4th & 17 at MSU 32, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  7. Q4 1:48MINN 4th & 4 at MSU 4, up 31
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q4 1:48MSU 4th & 3 at MINN 42, down 34
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1MINN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:50MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:57MINN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:26MINN Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:08MINN Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:17MSU Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:1060% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
40.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 11 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
40.3%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for no gain to the Minn 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
40.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Dylan Wright for 15 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
40.3%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-5
40.3%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Minn 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+21
40.3%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 21 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
40.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Clay Geary for 11 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
40.3%
Trey Potts run for 5 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 17
-3
40.3%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 20Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+18
40.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 18 yds to the MchSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
39.4%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:5240% → 39%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
39.9%
Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the MchSt 26Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
39.9%
Jarek Broussard run for 3 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
39.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 3 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q1 7:58
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+3
39.4%
Bryce Baringer punt for 48 yds , Quentin Redding returns for 3 yds to the Minn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 5:0160% → 67%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+16
39.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 16 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
39.1%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd to the Minn 40Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+10
39.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
50
+3
39.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+11
38.9%
MORGAN, Tanner pass to the left incomplete intended for WRIGHT, Dylan thrown to the MSU35. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on BRANTLEY, Charles enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the MSU36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
37.9%
Trey Potts run for 4 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 6
OPP 32
-15
37.7%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the MchSt 44Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 18
OPP 44
+6
38.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 6 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 12
OPP 38
+15
38.2%
Tanner Morgan run for 15 yds to the MchSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
33.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 23 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:2831% → 30%
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.2%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
31.0%
Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 2:13
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-8
30.9%
Payton Thorne sacked by Ryan Stapp for a loss of 8 yards to the MchSt 19Similar
Q1 1:29
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
30.4%
Bryce Baringer punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Quentin Redding at the Minn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5FG
14 plays · 66 yds · 6:1568% → 76%
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
32.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Bryce Williams for 1 yd to the Minn 27Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+7
31.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 7 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+6
31.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 6 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
31.2%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
27.1%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+10
27.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 10 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
27.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mohamed Ibrahim for 17 yds to the MchSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+19
26.8%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 19 yds to the MchSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
26.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Clay Geary for 1 yd to the MchSt 11Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+3
25.9%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mohamed Ibrahim for 3 yds to the MchSt 8Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
26.0%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:14
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+26
24.5%
Matthew Trickett 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6DOWNS
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:4523% → 22%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
22.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 11 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
23.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 5 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
22.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 3 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+4
22.4%
Payton Thorne run for 4 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
23.9%
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the MchSt 49Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+5
23.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 5 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
22.9%
Jalen Berger run for no gain to the Minn 46Similar
Q2 6:29
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
22.2%
Payton Thorne pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7FUMBLE
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:4882% → 83%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+26
18.5%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Dylan Wright for 26 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
17.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 17 yds to the MchSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
18.1%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 29Similar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 15
OPP 29
-4
17.4%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 33 Mohamed Ibrahim fumbled, recovered by MchSt Ronald WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:5619% → 19%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
19.3%
Jalen Berger run for 9 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+3
18.7%
Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
20.3%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
20.1%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+3
19.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 3 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q2 2:45
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
19.4%
Bryce Baringer punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9END OF HALF
12 plays · 34 yds · 2:4482% → 90%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
17.6%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Illegal Block (Michael Brown-Stephens) to the Minn 12Similar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 18
OWN 12
+6
14.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 6 yds to the Minn 18Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+3
14.4%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the Minn 21Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+10
14.7%
Tanner Morgan run for 10 yds to the Minn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+19
14.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
50
-15
9.5%
MORGAN, Tanner pass to the left incomplete intended for BROWN-STEPHENS, Michael thrown to the MSU44. PENALTY MIN Pass Interference on SPANN-FORD, Brevyn enforced 15 yards to the MIN35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 25
OWN 35
+5
10.1%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 20
OWN 40
+15
9.9%
MORGAN, Tanner sacked for a loss of 7 yards at the MIN33 (WRIGHT, Brandon). PENALTY MSU Face mask on WRIGHT, Brandon enforced 15 yards from the MIN40 to the MSU45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
10.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Trey Potts for 1 yd to the MchSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10FUMBLE
14 plays · 70 yds · 4:4121% → 20%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
21.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 12 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
22.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Berger for 4 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+18
22.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Daniel Barker for 18 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
23.3%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-10
23.1%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Maliq Carr) to the Minn 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+5
22.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Berger for 5 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+11
20.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 11 yds to the Minn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
21.8%
Jarek Broussard run for 8 yds to the Minn 21Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+3
21.8%
Jarek Broussard run for 3 yds to the Minn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
21.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 6 yds to the Minn 12Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+6
21.8%
Jarek Broussard run for 6 yds to the Minn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
20.4%
Payton Thorne run for 1 yd to the Minn 10 Payton Thorne fumbled, recovered by Minn Justin WalleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11TD
13 plays · 90 yds · 6:5384% → 97%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
16.3%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 11 yds to the Minn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
16.2%
Trey Potts run for 2 yds to the Minn 23Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+13
16.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Dylan Wright for 13 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
15.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 10 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
15.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 15 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
14.9%
Bryce Williams run for 7 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+11
11.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 11 yds to the MchSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
11.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the MchSt 19Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+7
11.6%
Bryce Williams run for 7 yds to the MchSt 12Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+2
11.9%
Tanner Morgan run for 2 yds to the MchSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
11.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the MchSt 6Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
3.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Nick Kallerup for 6 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12INT
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:342% → 2%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
2.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 13 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
2.3%
Payton Thorne pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13TD
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:4497% → 99%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
2.8%
Bryce Williams run for 5 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 5
OPP 23
-10
2.8%
WILLIAMS, Bryce rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the MSU21 (VANSUMEREN, Ben). PENALTY MIN Holding on CARROLL, Quinn enforced 10 yards from the MSU23 to the MSU33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+13
2.8%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 13 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q3 2:52
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+3
2.8%
Bryce Williams run for 3 yds to the MchSt 17 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Maverick Hansen) to the MchSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
2.2%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd to the MchSt 7Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
1.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the MchSt 4Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.6%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 4 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 1:430% → 0%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
0.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 14 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
0.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 6 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 4
OWN 45
-15
0.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jarrett Horst) to the MchSt 30Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 19
OWN 30
0
0.2%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 19
OWN 30
+7
0.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 7 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q4 14:08
4TH & 12
OWN 37
-5
0.2%
THORNE, Payton pass to the left complete for 13 yards to REED, Jayden caught at the MSU50 and advanced to the MSU50 (GOUSBY, Aidan;NUBIN, Tyler). PENALTY MSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on SAMAC, Nick enforced 5 yards from the MSU37 to the MSU32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:25
4TH & 17
OWN 32
0
0.2%
Bryce Baringer punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Quentin Redding at the Minn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15FG
18 plays · 76 yds · 10:37100% → 100%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
0.5%
Trey Potts run for 2 yds to the Minn 22Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+15
0.5%
Trey Potts run for 15 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
0.5%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (Quinn Carroll) to the Minn 32Similar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+5
0.5%
Trey Potts run for 5 yds to the Minn 37Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
0.5%
Trey Potts run for 8 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+10
0.4%
Trey Potts run for 10 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
0.4%
Bryce Williams run for 1 yd to the MchSt 44Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+3
0.4%
Bryce Williams run for 3 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+11
0.4%
Cole Kramer run for 11 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
0.4%
Trey Potts run for 12 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
0.2%
Trey Potts run for 7 yds to the MchSt 11Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+5
0.1%
Cole Kramer run for 5 yds to the MchSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
0.1%
Trey Potts run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 7Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
0.1%
Trey Potts run for 3 yds to the MchSt 4Similar
Q4 4:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
0.1%
Trey Potts run for no gain to the MchSt 4Similar
Q4 1:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
0.1%
Matthew Trickett 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:310% → 0%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
0.0%
Noah Kim pass complete to Maliq Carr for 10 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
0.0%
Noah Kim pass complete to Cade McDonald for 8 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+8
0.0%
Noah Kim pass complete to Cade McDonald for 8 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
0.0%
Noah Kim pass complete to Elijah Collins for 2 yds to the Minn 47Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
0.0%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+5
0.0%
Noah Kim run for 5 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+15
0.0%
Noah Kim pass complete to Cade McDonald for 15 yds to the Minn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
0.0%
Noah Kim pass complete to Germie Bernard for 27 yds for a TD, (Jack Stone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 12 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST down
+11
TD · Q3 3:26
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Nick Kallerup for 6 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)
-8.6
TD · Q1 2:57
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 23 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)
-5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com