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Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadRUTG aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreRUTG score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:20 · Evan Simon pass complete to Sean Ryan for 11 yds to the Temp 15 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:41: Quincy Patterson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rory Bell KICK) — TEM win probability +4.8 pts (now 17%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:05: Shaquan Loyal 43 Yd Interception Return (Jude McAtamney Kick) — RUTG win probability +2.2 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- FG · Q3 7:25: Jude McAtamney 25 yd FG GOOD — RUTG win probability +2.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- FG · Q4 14:55: Jude McAtamney 38 yd FG GOOD — RUTG win probability +4.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:15: E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Smith for 47 yds for a TD, (Rory Bell KICK) — TEM win probability +23.2 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 10 of 12RUTG made the numbers' call on 12 of 12
- Q1 14:07TEM 4th & 2 at TEM 33, tiedClose callPunted · 13.8% before the snapGo for it13.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 4:02TEM 4th & 2 at TEM 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snapGo for it18.8%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.8%average punt
- Q1 12:23RUTG 4th & 4 at RUTG 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snapGo for it85.3%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.3%average punt
- Q1 4:02RUTG 4th & 4 at RUTG 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snapGo for it80.9%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.0%average punt
- Q1 12:23TEM 4th & 3 at RUTG 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.8%52% to convertField goal14.7%−0.158% to makePunt14.4%−0.4average punt
- Q1 4:02TEM 4th & 3 at RUTG 29, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call22.0%52% to convertField goal21.7%−0.258% to makePunt20.5%−1.5average punt
- Q1 4:58RUTG 4th & 5 at RUTG 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.8% before the snapGo for it78.8%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.0%average punt
- Q1 3:49TEM 4th & 7 at TEM 21, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snapGo for it21.2%−0.435% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.7%average punt
- Q1 1:09RUTG 4th & 7 at TEM 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.4% before the snapGo for it76.2%−0.136% to convertField goalTheir call76.3%62% to makePunt74.5%−1.8average punt
- Q2 12:11TEM 4th & 8 at RUTG 43, up 4Close callPunted · 24.6% before the snapGo for it24.7%34% to convertField goal24.3%−0.428% to makePuntTheir call24.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 10:22RUTG 4th & 12 at RUTG 10, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.3% before the snapGo for it71.5%−0.721% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.2%average punt
- Q2 10:14RUTG 4th & 12 at RUTG 10, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.2% before the snapGo for it71.4%−0.721% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.1%average punt
- Q2 10:14TEM 4th & 1 at RUTG 48, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call26.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt25.6%−1.1average punt
- Q2 3:52TEM 4th & 1 at TEM 34, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call25.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt24.1%−1.0average punt
- Q2 2:20RUTG 4th & 2 at TEM 26, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call75.3%57% to convertField goal74.6%−0.664% to makePunt71.4%−3.9average punt
- Q2 0:51RUTG 4th & 15 at TEM 20, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.5% before the snapGo for it73.0%−1.916% to convertField goalTheir call74.9%75% to makePunt70.2%−4.7average punt
- Q3 14:02RUTG 4th & 17 at RUTG 24, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snapGo for it70.4%−3.013% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.5%average punt
- Q3 12:36TEM 4th & 10 at TEM 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snapGo for it25.3%−1.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.6%average punt
- Q3 7:25RUTG 4th & 7 at TEM 7, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.7% before the snapGo for it70.3%−0.628% to convertField goalTheir call70.9%91% to makePunt61.4%−9.5average punt
- Q3 4:10TEM 4th & 2 at TEM 43, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call27.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt26.0%−1.2average punt
- Q4 14:55RUTG 4th & 6 at TEM 20, up 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.0% before the snapGo for it77.1%−0.738% to convertField goalTheir call77.9%75% to makePunt68.2%−9.7average punt
- Q4 6:21RUTG 4th & 23 at TEM 40, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.4% before the snapGo for it56.2%−6.17% to convertField goal61.6%−0.734% to makePuntTheir call62.2%average punt
- Q4 6:21TEM 4th & 1 at TEM 15, down 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call39.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt33.6%−5.7average punt
- Q4 2:25TEM 4th & 4 at TEM 41, down 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call33.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt27.2%−6.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2RUTG made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 6:41TEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call19.3%97% to makeGo for two19.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:05RUTG Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.9%97% to makeGo for two75.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:15TEM Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.0%97% to makeGo for two34.8%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1PUNT11 plays · 8 yds · 10:5811% → 16%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
11.1%
PENALTY TEM False Start (Quarshie,Wisdom) 5 yards from TEM25 to TEM20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+13
11.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for 13 yds to the Temp 33Similar
Q1 14:07
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
11.4%
Mackenzie Morgan punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Aron Cruickshank at the Rutgr 28Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
16.2%
PENALTY TEM False Start (Quarshie,Wisdom) 5 yards from TEM25 to TEM20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+13
15.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for 13 yds to the Temp 33Similar
Q1 4:02
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
16.0%
Mackenzie Morgan punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Aron Cruickshank at the Rutgr 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 10:0589% → 84%
Q1 14:07
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+3
11.4%
Evan Simon pass complete to Johnny Langan for 3 yds to the Rutgr 34Similar
Q1 12:23
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
12.2%
Adam Korsak punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Amad Anderson Jr. at the Temp 27Similar
Q1 4:02
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
16.5%
Adam Korsak punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Amad Anderson Jr. at the Temp 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3TD23 plays · 73 yds · 8:2112% → 20%
Q1 12:23
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+23
12.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 23 yds to the Rutgr 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+7
12.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 7 yds to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q1 12:23
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+18
12.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 18 yds to the Rutgr 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+23
19.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 23 yds to the Rutgr 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+7
19.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 7 yds to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q1 4:02
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+18
19.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 18 yds to the Rutgr 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3983% → 82%
TEMDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0918% → 19%
Q1 4:58
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+6
18.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Smith for 6 yds to the Temp 26Similar
Q1 4:58
4TH & 2
OWN 26
-5
17.7%
PENALTY TEM Delay Of Game (Morgan,Mackenzie) 5 yards from TEM26 to TEM21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:49
4TH & 7
OWN 21
0
18.5%
Mackenzie Morgan punt for 42 yds , Aron Cruickshank returns for no gain to the Rutgr 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 6FG8 plays · 37 yds · 2:4681% → 81%
Q1 3:49
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+29
18.3%
Johnny Langan run for 29 yds to the Temp 30 Johnny Langan fumbled, recovered by Rutgr Sean Ryan for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
18.9%
McAtamney,Jude kickoff 63 yards to the TEM02 Cooper,Malik return 19 yards to the TEM21 (Dean,Austin; Braswell,Christian) PENALTY RUT Offside (Djabome,Dariel) 5 yards from RUT35 to RUT30. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7PUNT10 plays · 43 yds · 3:5119% → 22%
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+12
19.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Smith for 12 yds to the Temp 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
20.5%
Shotgun Warner,E.J. pass incomplete short left to Sanders,Adonicas broken up by Longerbeam,Robert PENALTY RUT Personal Foul (Lewis,Aaron) 15 yards from TEM40 to RUT45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:11
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
21.8%
Mackenzie Morgan punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Aron Cruickshank at the Rutgr 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 8PUNT7 plays · -2 yds · 1:5778% → 75%
Q2 12:11
3RD & 3
OWN 19
-5
22.6%
PENALTY RUT False Start (Brown,Ireland) 5 yards from RUT19 to RUT14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 8
OWN 14
-4
22.8%
Evan Simon sacked by Layton Jordan for a loss of 4 yards to the Rutgr 10Similar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 12
OWN 10
0
24.5%
Adam Korsak punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Amad Anderson Jr. at the Temp 43Similar
Q2 10:14
4TH & 12
OWN 10
0
24.7%
Adam Korsak punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Amad Anderson Jr. at the Temp 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 9INT TD7 plays · 12 yds · 4:0925% → 22%
Q2 10:14
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+5
24.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 5 yds to the Rutgr 48Similar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
25.2%
Ian Stewart run for 13 yds to the Temp 41 Ian Stewart fumbled, recovered by Temp Adonicas SandersSimilar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 23
OWN 41
+14
23.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 14 yds to the Rutgr 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 10DOWNS7 plays · 9 yds · 2:1321% → 21%
RUTGDrive 11MISSED FG11 plays · 14 yds · 3:0180% → 77%
TEMDrive 12END OF HALF5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5124% → 24%
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-5
24.0%
PENALTY TEM False Start (Smith,Jordan) 5 yards from TEM20 to TEM15. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 0:5877% → 74%
TEMDrive 14PUNT4 plays · -15 yds · 1:2625% → 24%
RUTGDrive 15FG11 plays · 46 yds · 5:1177% → 80%
Q3 12:36
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+15
23.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Simon,Evan pass incomplete short left to Cruickshank,Aron PENALTY TEM Pass Interference (Hill,Dominick) 15 yards from RUT49 to TEM36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 16DOWNS8 plays · 25 yds · 3:0924% → 25%
Q3 7:19
2ND & 8
OWN 21
0
23.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for no gain to the Temp 21Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+14
22.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Smith for 14 yds to the Temp 35 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Christian Izien) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
24.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 6 yds to the Temp 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 17FG11 plays · 24 yds · 4:1581% → 84%
Q3 4:10
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+18
19.2%
Evan Simon pass complete to Shameen Jones for 18 yds to the Temp 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 12
OPP 26
+1
18.5%
Evan Simon run for 11 yds to the Temp 15 RUTGERS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Shameen Jones) to the Temp 25Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+3
18.5%
Evan Simon pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for 3 yds to the Temp 22Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+7
19.3%
Evan Simon pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for 7 yds to the Temp 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 18TD2 plays · 60 yds · 0:4019% → 42%
RUTGDrive 19PUNT15 plays · 35 yds · 7:5468% → 64%
Q4 14:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
30.9%
Evan Simon pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for 8 yds to the Rutgr 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
29.9%
Evan Simon pass complete to Al-Shadee Salaam for 4 yds to the Rutgr 42Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+8
29.3%
Al-Shadee Salaam run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
4TH & 23
OPP 40
0
36.1%
Adam Korsak punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Amad Anderson Jr. at the Temp 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 20DOWNS10 plays · 35 yds · 3:5641% → 39%
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+9
41.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 9 yds to the Temp 15Similar
Q4 6:21
4TH & 1
OWN 15
+8
38.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Ian Stewart for 8 yds to the Temp 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+11
41.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Ian Stewart for 11 yds to the Temp 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 21END OF GAME9 plays · 33 yds · 2:2579% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:15
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Smith for 47 yds for a TD, (Rory Bell KICK)
+23.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-5
TD · Q1 6:41
Quincy Patterson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rory Bell KICK)
+4.8