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TOL

Toledo 21 at Ohio State 77

OSU
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:07 · Jesse Mirco punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 116Pregame prior+28.1Home team on offense+31.5Score differential+20.7Blowout margin+9.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.4Garbage-time factor+9.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:11: TreVeyon Henderson 7 Yd Run (Noah Ruggles Kick) — TOL win probability +0.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:10: Julian Fleming 5 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Noah Ruggles Kick) — OSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:41: Dequan Finn 23 Yd Run (Thomas Cluckey Kick) — TOL win probability +1.4 pts (now 4%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 7:16: Marvin Harrison Jr. 7 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Noah Ruggles Kick) — OSU win probability +1.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:47: Julian Fleming 11 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Noah Ruggles Kick) — OSU win probability +1.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3TOL made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
  1. Q1 6:28TOL 4th & 15 at TOL 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:29TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 34, down 14
    Close callPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:08TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 34, down 14
    Close callPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00TOL 4th & 5 at OSU 39, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:16TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 42, down 21
    Close callPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:24TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 42, down 21
    Close callPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:23OSU 4th & 3 at TOL 39, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:07OSU 4th & 3 at TOL 39, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:36TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 3, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:06TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 32, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:48TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 32, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:28TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 30, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:43TOL 4th & 2 at OSU 44, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    -0.0%−0.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:08TOL 4th & 12 at TOL 34, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:38TOL 4th & 12 at TOL 34, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:38OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 43, up 56
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 11 of 11TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:11OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:25TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:52OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 4:29OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 0:10OSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 10:41TOL Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 7:16OSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:47OSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 13:08OSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 10:23TOL Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 5:06OSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 13:49OSU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 11:45OSU Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 7:08OSU Touchdown, up 55 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OSUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 3:4598% → 98%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
97.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 8 yds to the OhSt 26Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 2
OWN 26
0
97.9%
TreVeyon Henderson run for no gain to the OhSt 26Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+4
97.9%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the OhSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
97.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 10 yds to the OhSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
97.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 7 yds to the OhSt 47Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+8
97.9%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 8 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+38
97.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for 38 yds to the Toled 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
97.6%
TreVeyon Henderson 7 Yd Run (Noah Ruggles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:463% → 3%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 7 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+18
97.5%
Dequan Finn run for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
50
0
97.5%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 10
50
+50
97.2%
Thomas Zsiros 50 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Thomas Cluckey Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3397% → 97%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
97.3%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 17 yds to the OhSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
97.3%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Miyan Williams for 10 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
97.3%
Miyan Williams run for 2 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+34
97.3%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for 34 yds to the Toled 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
97.3%
Miyan Williams run for 4 yds to the Toled 8Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
97.3%
Marvin Harrison Jr. 8 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Noah Ruggles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:243% → 3%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.2%
Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
97.2%
Micah Kelly run for 3 yds to the Toled 20Similar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
97.2%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jamal TurnerSimilar
Q1 6:28
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+10
97.1%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 49 yds , Emeka Egbuka returns for 10 yds to the OhSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 1:5997% → 97%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
97.1%
PENALTY TOL UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting OSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
97.1%
Miyan Williams run for 14 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+42
97.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 42 yds to the Toled 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
97.1%
Miyan Williams run for no gain to the Toled 3Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
97.1%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Cade StoverSimilar
Q1 4:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.4%
Emeka Egbuka 3 Yd Run (Noah Ruggles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:213% → 3%
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.2%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
97.2%
Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q1 4:29
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
97.2%
Peny Boone run for no gain to the Toled 34Similar
Q1 4:29
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
97.2%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Emeka Egbuka at the OhSt 29Similar
Q1 3:08
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
97.1%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Emeka Egbuka at the OhSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 2:5897% → 98%
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+21
97.3%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
50
+19
97.3%
Miyan Williams run for 19 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
97.4%
Miyan Williams run for 10 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
97.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for 11 yds to the Toled 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
97.4%
Miyan Williams run for 5 yds to the Toled 5Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
97.4%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSimilar
Q1 0:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.0%
Julian Fleming 5 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Noah Ruggles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:292% → 4%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 2 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 2 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-4
98.0%
Dequan Finn sacked by Jack Sawyer for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+23
98.1%
Dequan Finn run for 23 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
98.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 10 yds to the OhSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
97.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 5 yds to the OhSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
97.9%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Thomas ZsirosSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 39
0
98.0%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 39
+12
98.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 12 yds to the OhSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
97.8%
Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the OhSt 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
97.8%
Micah Kelly run for no gain to the OhSt 23Similar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+23
96.4%
Dequan Finn 23 Yd Run (Thomas Cluckey Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2597% → 99%
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
96.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 12 yds to the OhSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+28
97.0%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 28 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
97.1%
Miyan Williams run for 2 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+5
97.1%
C.J. Stroud run for 5 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+12
97.0%
Miyan Williams run for 12 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
96.9%
Miyan Williams run for 9 yds to the Toled 7Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+7
98.5%
Marvin Harrison Jr. 7 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Noah Ruggles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:522% → 2%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
97.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Mikel Barkley for 10 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
97.6%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
97.6%
Dequan Finn run for 5 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
97.2%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q2 7:16
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
97.2%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Emeka Egbuka at the OhSt 11Similar
Q2 5:24
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
97.9%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Emeka Egbuka at the OhSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 89 yds · 4:3799% → 100%
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
98.5%
Dallan Hayden run for 9 yds to the OhSt 20Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+9
98.5%
Dallan Hayden run for 9 yds to the OhSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
98.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Julian Fleming for 7 yds to the OhSt 36Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+4
98.5%
C.J. Stroud run for 4 yds to the OhSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
98.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 21 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
98.6%
Dallan Hayden run for 11 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
98.6%
Dallan Hayden run for 5 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+10
98.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Stroud,C.J. pass complete short right to Hayden,Dallan for 0 yards to the TOL23, out of bounds at TOL23 PENALTY TOL Holding (Johnson,Dyontae) 10 yards from TOL23 to TOL13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
98.6%
Dallan Hayden run for 2 yds to the Toled 11Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+11
99.6%
Julian Fleming 11 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Noah Ruggles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:470% → 0%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.6%
Micah Kelly run for 4 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
99.6%
Micah Kelly run for 1 yd to the Toled 28Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
99.6%
Micah Kelly run for 1 yd to the Toled 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:281% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.4%
Peny Boone run for 15 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.4%
Dequan Finn pass interceptedSimilar
Q3 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.2%
Dequan Finn pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14TD
4 plays · 48 yds · 1:24100% → 100%
Q3 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+45
99.6%
Dallan Hayden run for 45 yds to the Toled 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
99.5%
Dallan Hayden run for 1 yd to the Toled 2Similar
Q3 14:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.5%
Dallan Hayden run for 1 yd to the Toled 1Similar
Q3 13:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.7%
Mitch Rossi 1 Yd Run (Noah Ruggles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:450% → 0%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 16 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
99.7%
Peny Boone run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 1
50
+10
99.7%
Peny Boone run for 10 yds to the OhSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.7%
Peny Boone run for no gain to the OhSt 40Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
99.7%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jamal TurnerSimilar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+40
99.6%
Jerjuan Newton 40 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Thomas Cluckey Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 2:16100% → 100%
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 7 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
99.6%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Emeka EgbukaSimilar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-5
99.6%
PENALTY OSU False Start (Wypler,Luke) 5 yards from OSU32 to OSU27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+27
99.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 27 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
99.6%
Dallan Hayden run for 4 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
99.6%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Cade StoverSimilar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+3
99.6%
Dallan Hayden run for 3 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q3 10:23
4TH & 3
OPP 39
0
99.6%
Jesse Mirco punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 2Similar
Q3 8:07
4TH & 3
OPP 39
0
99.6%
Jesse Mirco punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:310% → 0%
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
99.7%
PENALTY TOL False Start (Newton,Jerjuan) 1 yard from TOL02 to TOL01. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 11
OWN 1
+1
99.7%
Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the Toled 2Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 2
0
99.8%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 10
OWN 2
+1
99.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Peny Boone for 1 yd to the Toled 3Similar
Q3 6:36
4TH & 9
OWN 3
0
99.8%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 39 yds · 1:30100% → 100%
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+29
99.8%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 29 yds to the Toled 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
99.8%
Dallan Hayden run for 3 yds to the Toled 7Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.8%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Xavier JohnsonSimilar
Q3 5:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.8%
Emeka Egbuka 7 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Noah Ruggles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:180% → 0%
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.8%
Micah Kelly run for 9 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-2
99.8%
Dequan Finn sacked by Javontae Jean-Baptiste for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 32Similar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
99.8%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Mikel BarkleySimilar
Q3 5:06
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+14
99.8%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 50 yds , Jayden Ballard returns for 14 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
Q3 3:48
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+14
99.8%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 50 yds , Jayden Ballard returns for 14 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20TD
13 plays · 68 yds · 4:59100% → 100%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
99.8%
Dallan Hayden run for 4 yds to the OhSt 36Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+3
99.8%
Dallan Hayden run for 3 yds to the OhSt 39Similar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+19
99.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jayden Ballard for 19 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
99.9%
Dallan Hayden run for 7 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+9
99.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jayden Ballard for 9 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.9%
Kyle McCord pass incomplete to Gee Scott Jr.Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
99.9%
Dallan Hayden run for 2 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 28
+21
99.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jayden Ballard for 13 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Judge Culpepper) to the Toled 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
99.9%
No Huddle Hayden,Dallan rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TOL02 (Ragin,D'Andre) PENALTY TOL Illegal Substitution 4 yards from TOL07 to TOL03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.9%
Dallan Hayden run for 2 yds to the Toled 1Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Kyle McCord pass incomplete to Xavier JohnsonSimilar
Q4 13:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Dallan Hayden 1 Yd Run (Noah Ruggles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:210% → 0%
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Micah Kelly run for 4 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
99.9%
Micah Kelly run for 1 yd to the Toled 30Similar
Q4 13:49
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q4 12:28
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jayden Ballard at the OhSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 22TD
2 plays · 74 yds · 0:43100% → 100%
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
99.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Kyion Grayes for 2 yds to the OhSt 28Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+72
99.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jayden Ballard for 72 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23FUMBLE
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:020% → 0%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
100.0%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the Toled 24Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+24
100.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Adam Beale for 24 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
100.0%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the Toled 49Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+1
100.0%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 8
50
+6
100.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Adam Beale for 6 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
Q4 8:43
4TH & 2
OPP 44
-11
100.0%
Tucker Gleason sacked by Javontae Jean-Baptiste for a loss of 11 yards to the Toled 45 Tucker Gleason fumbled, recovered by OhSt Palaie Gaoteote IV , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 24TD
3 plays · 45 yds · 1:35100% → 100%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
99.9%
TC Caffey run for 1 yd to the Toled 44Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+5
99.9%
TC Caffey run for 5 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q4 7:08
3RD & 14
OPP 49
+49
100.0%
T. Caffey run for 49 yds for a TD, (N. Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 3:300% → 0%
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
100.0%
Willie Shaw III run for 1 yd to the Toled 26Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
100.0%
Willie Shaw III run for 1 yd to the Toled 25Similar
Q4 7:08
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
100.0%
Tucker Gleason run for 11 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
100.0%
Willie Shaw III run for no gain to the Toled 36Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
100.0%
Willie Shaw III run for 2 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 7:08
3RD & 12
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Mikel BarkleySimilar
Q4 7:08
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 32 ydsSimilar
Q4 3:38
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 26END OF GAME
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:38100% → 100%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
100.0%
Cayden Saunders run for 1 yd to the OhSt 35Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+5
100.0%
Cayden Saunders run for 5 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+3
100.0%
TC Caffey run for 3 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q4 3:38
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+1
100.0%
Devin Brown run for 1 yd to the OhSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
100.0%
TC Caffey run for 4 yds to the OhSt 48Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+5
100.0%
TC Caffey run for 5 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+5
100.0%
TC Caffey run for 5 yds to the Toled 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:16
Marvin Harrison Jr. 7 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Noah Ruggles Kick)
+1.6
TD · Q2 10:41
Dequan Finn 23 Yd Run (Thomas Cluckey Kick)
-1.4
TD · Q2 0:47
Julian Fleming 11 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Noah Ruggles Kick)
+1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com