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SMU

SMU 27 at Maryland 34

MD
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · SECU Stadium
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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:46 · Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 200Home team on offense+18.4Pregame prior+0.1Score differential+2.9Garbage-time factor+5.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:43: Antwain Littleton II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK) — MD win probability +7.2 pts (now 59%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 4:30: Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 48 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK) — MD win probability +15.3 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:30: Velton Gardner run for 5 yds to the Mary 13 — SMU win probability +12.6 pts (now 50%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:29: Roman Hemby 1 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick) — MD win probability +24.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:30: Corey Dyches 5 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Chad Ryland Kick) — MD win probability +23.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 9 of 11SMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 11:50SMU 4th & 1 at MD 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    41.7%−0.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    41.2%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:26MD 4th & 2 at SMU 18, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.6%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    57.7%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:37SMU 4th & 2 at MD 10, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%
    55% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.4%−0.3
    88% to make
    Punt
    38.2%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:26SMU 4th & 6 at MD 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    40.6%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:26MD 4th & 6 at MD 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:12MD 4th & 6 at MD 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:51MD 4th & 6 at MD 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:41SMU 4th & 27 at SMU 39, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−2.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:08MD 4th & 8 at MD 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:08MD 4th & 8 at MD 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:34MD 4th & 23 at SMU 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−2.5
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    29.2%−5.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:17MD 4th & 8 at MD 5, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:23SMU 4th & 1 at MD 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    61.4%−4.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    60.2%−5.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:51SMU 4th & 13 at MD 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−1.9
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    64.9%−1.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:10MD 4th & 9 at SMU 45, tied
    Close callWent for it · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.0%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    54.1%−3.5
    25% to make
    Punt
    57.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:30SMU 4th & 7 at MD 9, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.2 ptsWent for it · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.7%−3.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    18.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−13.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:31SMU 4th & 7 at MD 9, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.8%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    11.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−7.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:26MD 4th & 4 at MD 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:25MD 4th & 4 at MD 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−0.5
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:25SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.7%−5.9
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:46SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.3%−5.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 4 of 4SMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 14:53SMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:43MD Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:30MD Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:29MD Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:30MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.6%−1.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 67 yds · 3:1040% → 40%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
60.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
60.4%
MARYLAND Penalty, Offsides (Mosiah Nasili-Kite) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
60.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
60.4%
TJ McDaniel run for 3 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+22
60.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 22 yds to the Mary 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
60.4%
TJ McDaniel run for 2 yds to the Mary 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+5
60.4%
TJ McDaniel run for 5 yds to the Mary 10Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+2
60.4%
Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds to the Mary 8Similar
Q1 11:50
4TH & 1
OPP 8
0
60.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2FG
7 plays · 74 yds · 3:2460% → 61%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+50
60.4%
Roman Hemby run for 50 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+16
60.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to CJ Dippre for 16 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
60.9%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+5
60.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 5 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 3
OPP 19
-5
60.8%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (Mason Lunsford) to the SMU 24Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+6
60.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 6 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q1 8:26
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+36
61.3%
Chad Ryland 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:4939% → 41%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
61.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 7 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
61.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Velton Gardner for 3 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+34
61.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 34 yds to the Mary 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
60.3%
Velton Gardner run for 2 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+6
60.3%
Tre Siggers run for 6 yds to the Mary 23Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+5
60.5%
Tre Siggers run for 5 yds to the Mary 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
60.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+7
60.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 7 yds to the Mary 11Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+1
60.5%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd to the Mary 10Similar
Q1 4:37
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+27
59.5%
Collin Rogers 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0441% → 41%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
58.7%
Tanner Mordecai run for 4 yds to the Mary 26Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 6
OPP 26
0
58.6%
Camar Wheaton run for no gain to the Mary 26Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 6
OPP 26
0
59.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:26
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+43
58.9%
Collin Rogers 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:1459% → 58%
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
58.6%
Roman Hemby run for 8 yds to the Mary 33Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
59.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 1 yd to the Mary 34Similar
Q1 3:26
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
59.0%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (Mason Lunsford) to the Mary 29Similar
Q1 3:26
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
58.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:26
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+3
57.8%
Colton Spangler punt for 49 yds , Jordan Kerley returns for 3 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 2:12
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+3
57.5%
Colton Spangler punt for 49 yds , Jordan Kerley returns for 3 yds to the SMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1942% → 48%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
58.4%
Tre Siggers run for 9 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
57.8%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
58.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
58.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Velton Gardner for 3 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+8
58.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 8 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
56.5%
Velton Gardner run for 1 yd to the SMU 49Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
56.5%
Velton Gardner run for 1 yd to the SMU 49Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+51
51.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to RJ Maryland for 51 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 4 yds · 2:0252% → 50%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
51.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 4 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
51.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 3 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
51.5%
Antwain Littleton II run for 2 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
50.0%
Antwain Littleton II run for 2 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q2 13:05
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
49.5%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mary 29Similar
Q2 12:51
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+16
50.0%
Colton Spangler punt for 55 yds , Moochie Dixon returns for 16 yds to the SMU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 7 yds · 2:1049% → 50%
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
50.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
50.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+24
50.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 24 yds to the Mary 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-7
49.3%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by Greg China-Rose for a loss of 7 yards to the SMU 49Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 17
OWN 49
+7
50.4%
TJ McDaniel run for 7 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+3
49.7%
Tanner Mordecai run for 3 yds to the Mary 41Similar
Q2 12:45
4TH & 7
OPP 41
-15
50.2%
SMU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 12:45
4TH & 22
OWN 44
-5
51.4%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Sam Westfall) to the SMU 39Similar
Q2 10:41
4TH & 27
OWN 39
+12
49.9%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 38 yds , Jeshaun Jones returns for 12 yds to the Mary 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:5851% → 59%
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
50.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 8 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+4
51.4%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the Mary 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
51.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 14 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
51.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 9 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+7
52.9%
Roman Hemby run for 7 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
52.9%
Antwain Littleton II run for 4 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+7
52.9%
Colby McDonald run for 7 yds to the SMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
52.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 5 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+3
52.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 3 yds to the SMU 4Similar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+3
51.9%
Colby McDonald run for 3 yds to the SMU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.1%
Antwain Littleton II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10INT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:0446% → 47%
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
54.4%
Tre Siggers run for 5 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
53.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:43
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
54.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 15 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
52.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
52.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11TD
1 play · 48 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
68.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 48 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:0033% → 50%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
67.3%
Velton Gardner run for 12 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
66.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
66.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Velton Gardner for 4 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+24
66.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jake Bailey for 24 yds to the Mary 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+17
63.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 17 yds to the Mary 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
50.5%
Velton Gardner run for 5 yds to the Mary 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 1:3443% → 39%
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
43.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 3 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
43.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 13 yds to the Mary 41 MARYLAND Penalty, Personal Foul (Jeshaun Jones) to the Mary 26Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
43.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 6 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
43.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:42
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-5
42.9%
MARYLAND Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the Mary 27Similar
Q2 1:08
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
39.1%
Colton Spangler punt for 48 yds, downed at the SMU 25Similar
Q2 1:08
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
39.1%
Colton Spangler punt for 48 yds, downed at the SMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14END OF HALF
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0860% → 61%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
40.3%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by Jaishawn Barham for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 17Similar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
40.3%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by Jaishawn Barham for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 17Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+10
40.2%
Tre Siggers run for 10 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+1
39.0%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd to the SMU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 15FG
11 plays · 35 yds · 3:2041% → 36%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
40.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 7 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+25
41.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 25 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+17
43.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 17 yds to the SMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
43.4%
HEMBY, Roman rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the SMU6 (PHILLIPS, JR., Jimmy). PENALTY Before the snap, UMD Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the SMU9 to the SMU14. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
-5
43.3%
MARYLAND Penalty, Illegal Snap on BRANCH, Johari enforced (Johari Branch) to the SMU 19Similar
Q3 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
+13
43.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 13 yds to the SMU 6Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
43.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
39.5%
TAGOVAILOA, Taulia pass to the left complete for 6 yards to JONES, Jeshaun caught at the SMU0 and advanced to the SMU0, TOUCHDOWN UMD, score nullified by penalty, clock 12:09. PENALTY UMD Holding on LUNSFORD, Mason enforced 10 yards from the SMU6 to the SMU16 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
-15
38.3%
MARYLAND Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jeshaun Jones) to the SMU 31Similar
Q3 12:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 31
+8
38.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 8 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q3 11:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 23
+41
35.5%
Chad Ryland 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16FUMBLE
9 plays · 72 yds · 1:4763% → 67%
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
36.8%
SIGGERS, Tre rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the SMU26 (NCHAMI, Durell). PENALTY Before the snap, SMU Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the SMU25 to the SMU20. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+7
37.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jake Bailey for 7 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
36.6%
Tre Siggers run for 6 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
36.7%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 11:34
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+15
37.5%
MARYLAND Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jaishawn Barham) to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
35.1%
MORDECAI, Tanner pass to the right incomplete intended for RICE, Rashee broken up by COLEY JR., Corey at the UMD12. PENALTY UMD Roughing the Passer on FINAU, Ami enforced 15 yards from the SMU49 to the UMD36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
35.1%
Tre Siggers run for 13 yds to the Mary 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
34.6%
MORDECAI, Tanner pass to the right incomplete intended for RICE, Rashee thrown to the UMD12. PENALTY UMD Pass Interference on BANKS, Deonte enforced half the distance from the goal, 11 yards to the UMD12 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
33.4%
Tanner Mordecai run for 9 yds to the Mary 3 Tanner Mordecai fumbled, recovered by Mary Ahmad McCulloughSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3035% → 32%
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
34.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+3
34.4%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the Mary 6Similar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 7
OWN 6
-1
33.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Elijah Chatman for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 5Similar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 8
OWN 5
+23
31.6%
Colton Spangler punt for 55 yds , Moochie Dixon returns for 23 yds to the Mary 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 37 yds · 1:3567% → 66%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
33.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+1
33.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Velton Gardner for 1 yd to the Mary 36Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 9
OPP 36
0
33.0%
SMU Penalty, Illegal Formation (Owen Condon) declinedSimilar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 9
OPP 36
0
33.8%
MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive Holding (Tarheeb Still) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
31.9%
Tre Siggers run for 7 yds to the Mary 7Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+7
33.8%
Moochie Dixon 7 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19FUMBLE
1 play · 17 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
42.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Colby McDonald for 17 yds Colby McDonald fumbled, recovered by SMU Kevaris HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20MISSED FG
11 plays · 22 yds · 3:3265% → 65%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
35.1%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+1
35.0%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd to the SMU 49Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+7
35.1%
Tanner Mordecai run for 7 yds to the Mary 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
34.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
34.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+9
34.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 9 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q3 6:23
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+6
36.3%
Tre Siggers run for 6 yds to the Mary 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
33.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-5
33.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to TJ McDaniel for a loss of 5 yards to the Mary 34Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 15
OPP 34
+2
35.8%
TJ McDaniel run for 2 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q3 2:51
4TH & 13
OPP 32
+49
34.7%
Collin Rogers 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:2240% → 67%
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+34
39.6%
Roman Hemby run for 34 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
46.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 4 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+5
46.3%
Antwain Littleton II run for 5 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+3
44.1%
Antwain Littleton II run for 3 yds to the SMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
46.2%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 6
OPP 18
0
46.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+14
43.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 14 yds to the SMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+14
40.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 14 yds to the SMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
42.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 3 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q4 14:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.8%
Roman Hemby 1 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22INT
9 plays · 39 yds · 2:1544% → 49%
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
55.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+10
56.0%
MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ami Finau) to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
55.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Gage Haskin for 7 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 3
OWN 34
-5
52.7%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Jake Bailey) to the SMU 29Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+11
54.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 11 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
52.3%
Camar Wheaton run for 2 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+15
52.0%
MORDECAI, Tanner pass to the right incomplete intended for RICE, Rashee thrown to the UMD38. PENALTY UMD Pass Interference on COLEY JR., Corey enforced 15 yards to the UMD43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
50.3%
Tanner Mordecai run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 46Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 13
OPP 46
0
51.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 23TD
10 plays · 46 yds · 4:4065% → 91%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-6
65.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Gary Wiley and Elijah Chatman for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 48Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 16
OWN 48
+7
61.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 7 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 9
OPP 45
0
63.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:10
4TH & 9
OPP 45
+10
59.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 10 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
66.8%
Roman Hemby run for 6 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+3
67.0%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+12
65.0%
Roman Hemby run for 12 yds to the SMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
66.9%
Roman Hemby run for 6 yds to the SMU 8Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+3
66.9%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+5
90.5%
Corey Dyches 5 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Chad Ryland Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24DOWNS
16 plays · 66 yds · 4:5914% → 12%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
86.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jake Bailey for 5 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
85.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jake Bailey for 6 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
84.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 11 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
82.5%
MORDECAI, Tanner pass to the left incomplete intended for UPSHAW, Austin broken up by STILL, Tarheeb at the SMU47. PENALTY Before the snap, UMD Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the SMU47 to the UMD48. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 5
OPP 48
+1
81.4%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd to the Mary 47Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+11
81.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 11 yds to the Mary 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
81.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 11 yds to the Mary 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
79.9%
Tre Siggers run for 9 yds to the Mary 16Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 1
OPP 16
-1
79.8%
Tre Siggers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 17Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+5
81.7%
Tanner Mordecai run for 5 yds to the Mary 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
79.8%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd to the Mary 11Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+2
79.8%
Velton Gardner run for 2 yds to the Mary 9Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 7
OPP 9
0
81.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 7
OPP 9
0
83.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:31
4TH & 7
OPP 9
0
87.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:0694% → 95%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
94.2%
Roman Hemby run for 5 yds to the Mary 14Similar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
94.7%
Roman Hemby run for 5 yds to the Mary 14Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+3
94.7%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the Mary 17Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 2
OWN 17
-2
94.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 15Similar
Q4 2:26
4TH & 4
OWN 15
0
93.6%
Colton Spangler punt for 46 yds, downed at the SMU 39Similar
Q4 1:25
4TH & 4
OWN 15
0
95.1%
Colton Spangler punt for 46 yds, downed at the SMU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:399% → 9%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
90.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+1
91.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tre Siggers for 1 yd to the SMU 40Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+8
91.3%
Tanner Mordecai run for 8 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q4 1:25
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
90.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:46
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
91.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:29
Roman Hemby 1 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)
+24.1
TD · Q4 7:30
Corey Dyches 5 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Chad Ryland Kick)
+23.6
TD · Q2 4:30
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 48 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)
+15.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com