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NMSU

New Mexico State 7 at Wisconsin 66

WIS
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Camp Randall Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:13 · Andy Vujnovich punt for 43 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 26Pregame prior+46.2Home team on offense+1.7Score differential+0.3Blowout margin−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 13:30: Braelon Allen run for 39 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK) — NMSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:56: Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK) — WIS win probability +0.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:22: Graham Mertz pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 18 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK) — WIS win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 11:17: Braelon Allen run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK) — WIS win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 6:09: Braelon Allen run for 2 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK) — WIS win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 6NMSU made the numbers' call on 14 of 14
  1. Q1 10:34NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:34WIS 4th & 2 at WIS 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:57WIS 4th & 2 at WIS 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:13WIS 4th & 13 at WIS 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:18WIS 4th & 13 at WIS 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:18NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:36NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:59NMSU 4th & 11 at NMSU 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:17NMSU 4th & 29 at NMSU 23, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.1%−1.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:42NMSU 4th & 29 at NMSU 23, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:09NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 28, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  12. Q2 4:36NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 28, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:04NMSU 4th & 6 at WIS 12, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.6%
    86% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:31NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 44, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:43NMSU 4th & 14 at NMSU 21, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:53NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 30, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  17. Q3 5:37NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 30, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  18. Q3 0:16NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 30, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:50WIS 4th & 23 at WIS 7, up 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:58WIS 4th & 4 at NMSU 9, up 56
    Close callKicked a field goal · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 9 of 9NMSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:30WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:56WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:22WIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:17WIS Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:09WIS Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:21WIS Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:53WIS Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:41WIS Touchdown, up 55 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:48WIS Touchdown, up 62 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:10NMSU Touchdown, down 57 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WISDrive 1TD
3 plays · 49 yds · 1:2299% → 99%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
98.8%
Braelon Allen run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+4
98.8%
Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
98.8%
Braelon Allen run for 39 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:561% → 1%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Justice Powers for 6 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
98.8%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
98.8%
PAVIA, Diego pass to the left incomplete intended for POWERS, Justice thrown to the NMS40. PENALTY WIS Personal Foul on BENTON, Keeanu enforced 15 yards from the NMS31 to the NMS46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
98.8%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+2
98.8%
Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+3
98.8%
Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q1 10:34
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
98.6%
Josh Carlson punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:3799% → 98%
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
98.6%
Braelon Allen run for 9 yds to the Wisc 18Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+11
98.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Hayden Rucci for 11 yds to the Wisc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
98.6%
Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+9
98.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Hayden Rucci for 9 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
98.6%
Chez Mellusi run for 5 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+3
98.6%
Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the Wisc 48Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 2
OWN 48
0
98.6%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:34
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
98.6%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q1 6:57
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
98.3%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:442% → 2%
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
98.3%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
98.3%
Diego Pavia pass interceptedSimilar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
98.2%
Diego Pavia pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:5598% → 98%
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
98.3%
Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+1
98.3%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Wisc 47Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 5
OWN 47
-8
98.2%
Graham Mertz sacked by Chris Ojoh for a loss of 8 yards to the Wisc 39Similar
Q1 6:13
4TH & 13
OWN 39
0
98.2%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 43 ydsSimilar
Q1 4:18
4TH & 13
OWN 39
0
98.0%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:422% → 2%
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
98.0%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+5
98.0%
Jamoni Jones run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 6
OWN 22
0
98.0%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:18
4TH & 6
OWN 22
+1
98.1%
Josh Carlson punt for 42 yds , Dean Engram returns for 1 yd to the Wisc 37Similar
Q1 2:36
4TH & 6
OWN 22
+1
97.9%
Josh Carlson punt for 42 yds , Dean Engram returns for 1 yd to the Wisc 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:4098% → 98%
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
97.9%
Chez Mellusi run for 16 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
97.9%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+16
97.9%
Chez Mellusi run for 16 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
97.9%
Chez Mellusi run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+17
97.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for 17 yds to the NMxSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
97.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 2Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
97.6%
Isaac Guerendo run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 2Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.2%
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:572% → 2%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.0%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.0%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-1
98.0%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q2 13:59
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
98.0%
Josh Carlson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9TD
4 plays · 56 yds · 1:3798% → 99%
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
98.2%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Syrus Dumas) to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
98.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jackson Acker for 13 yds to the NMxSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
98.2%
Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+18
98.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 18 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10INT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:201% → 1%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
98.7%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
98.7%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 10
OWN 11
-5
98.8%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (Chris Ojoh) to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 15
OWN 6
0
98.8%
Gavin Frakes pass interceptedSimilar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 15
OWN 6
0
98.8%
Gavin Frakes pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11TD
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:4199% → 99%
Q2 11:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
98.8%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.3%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 2:351% → 1%
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.3%
Star Thomas run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
99.3%
Star Thomas run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
99.3%
Jamoni Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 11
OWN 41
0
99.3%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 11
OWN 41
-18
99.3%
Diego Pavia sacked by Nick Herbig for a loss of 18 yards to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q2 11:17
4TH & 29
OWN 23
0
99.4%
Josh Carlson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 37Similar
Q2 8:42
4TH & 29
OWN 23
0
99.4%
Josh Carlson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 2:3399% → 100%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+37
99.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Skyler Bell for 37 yds to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
99.3%
Chez Mellusi run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+13
99.3%
Chez Mellusi run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
99.3%
Braelon Allen run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 2Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.5%
Braelon Allen run for 2 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:330% → 0%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.6%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+4
99.6%
Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.6%
Josh Carlson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 39Similar
Q2 4:36
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.7%
Josh Carlson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15INT
6 plays · 47 yds · 1:38100% → 100%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
99.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Skyler Bell for 4 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 6
OWN 43
-10
99.6%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Wisc 39Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+47
99.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Clay Cundiff for 47 yds to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
99.6%
Graham Mertz pass interceptedSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
99.6%
Graham Mertz pass interceptedSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
99.7%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Illegal Snap on YARRO, Canaan enforced half the distance from the goal ( Yards) to the NMxSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16MISSED FG
17 plays · 82 yds · 2:540% → 0%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 13
OWN 3
+22
99.7%
Star Thomas run for 22 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Lawrence Dixon for 11 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.7%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+10
99.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jamoni Jones for 10 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
99.7%
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
99.7%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+13
99.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for 13 yds to the Wisc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
99.7%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
99.7%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+18
99.7%
Ahmonte Watkins run for 18 yds to the Wisc 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
99.7%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
99.7%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+4
99.7%
Jamoni Jones run for 4 yds to the Wisc 12Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+4
99.8%
Jamoni Jones run for 4 yds to the Wisc 12Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+29
99.6%
Ethan Albertson 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:04100% → 100%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
99.7%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 19Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
99.7%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:290% → 0%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.7%
Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
99.7%
Jamoni Jones run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
99.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 9 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 49
-5
99.7%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
99.7%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
99.7%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:31
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
99.8%
Josh Carlson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19TD
5 plays · 82 yds · 2:10100% → 100%
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
99.8%
Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the Wisc 20Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+10
99.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Clay Cundiff for 10 yds to the Wisc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
99.8%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Keyshaun Elliott) to the Wisc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
99.8%
Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+49
99.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Skyler Bell for 49 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:380% → 0%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.8%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-3
99.8%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
99.8%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:43
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
99.9%
punt blocked by Max Lofy blocked by Max LofySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21TD
4 plays · 48 yds · 1:50100% → 100%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
99.8%
Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+28
99.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 28 yds to the NMxSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
99.8%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+18
99.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Skyler Bell for 18 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:160% → 0%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Ahmonte Watkins run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
99.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 3 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:53
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Josh Carlson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 30Similar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Josh Carlson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:56100% → 100%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
99.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the Wisc 32Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+4
99.9%
Myles Burkett pass complete to Dean Engram for 4 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+37
99.9%
Myles Burkett pass complete to Dean Engram for 37 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
99.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+3
99.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
99.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for 16 yds WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 19
OPP 25
+22
99.9%
Myles Burkett pass complete to Dean Engram for 22 yds to the NMxSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:250% → 0%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Bryce Childress for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Tim Gans run for no gain to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q3 1:41
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:16
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Josh Carlson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 1:26100% → 100%
Q3 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for no gain to the Wisc 20Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for no gain to the Wisc 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Personal Foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 17
-10
99.9%
Deacon Hill sacked by Buddha Peleti and Sterling Webb for a loss of 10 yards to the Wisc 7Similar
Q4 13:50
4TH & 23
OWN 7
0
99.9%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26INT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:340% → 0%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
100.0%
FRAKES, Gavin pass up the middle complete for 56 yards to JONES, J.J. caught at the WIS25 and advanced to the WIS1 (BROWN, Austin). PENALTY NMS Holding on PRECIADO, Gabriel enforced 10 yards from the NMS43 to the NMS33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 20
OWN 33
0
100.0%
Gavin Frakes pass interceptedSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
100.0%
FRAKES, Gavin pass up the middle complete for 56 yards to JONES, J.J. caught at the WIS25 and advanced to the WIS1 (BROWN, Austin). PENALTY NMS Holding on PRECIADO, Gabriel enforced 10 yards from the NMS43 to the NMS33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 20
OWN 33
0
100.0%
Gavin Frakes pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 27TD
3 plays · 37 yds · 1:28100% → 100%
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
99.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+3
99.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+30
99.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for 30 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 28TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:380% → 0%
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
100.0%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
50
+8
100.0%
Tim Gans run for 8 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+2
100.0%
Tim Gans run for 2 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
100.0%
Tim Gans run for 3 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
100.0%
Ahmonte Watkins run for no gain to the Wisc 37Similar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+36
100.0%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Jordin Parker for 36 yds to the Wisc 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Ahmonte Watkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brett Money KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 29FG
8 plays · 66 yds · 4:12100% → 100%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Julius Davis run for 2 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+21
99.9%
Myles Burkett pass complete to Jaylan Franklin for 21 yds to the Wisc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
99.9%
Julius Davis run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+33
99.9%
Julius Davis run for 33 yds to the NMxSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
100.0%
Julius Davis run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+2
100.0%
Julius Davis run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 4
OPP 9
0
100.0%
Myles Burkett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+27
100.0%
Nate Van Zelst 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 30END OF GAME
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:540% → 0%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
100.0%
Tim Gans run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+1
100.0%
Tim Gans run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+6
100.0%
Weston Eget pass complete to Terrell Warner for 6 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
100.0%
Tim Gans run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+5
100.0%
Ahmonte Watkins run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+1
100.0%
Ahmonte Watkins run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
100.0%
Tim Gans run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+6
100.0%
Tim Gans run for 6 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+6
100.0%
Tim Gans run for 6 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:56
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK)
+0.6
TD · Q2 12:22
Graham Mertz pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 18 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK)
+0.6
TD · Q2 11:17
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK)
+0.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com