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NEV

Nevada 0 at Iowa 27

IOWA
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Kinnick Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:26 · Matt Freem punt for 40 yds, downed at the Iowa 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 154Pregame prior+11.1Home team on offense+29.8Score differential+21.8Garbage-time factor+7.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.9Blowout margin+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. PUNT · Q1 11:12: Tory Taylor punt for 62 yds for a touchback — NEV win probability +0.8 pts (now 5%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q1 4:36: Kaleb Johnson run for 40 yds for a TD, (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +0.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 0:23: Spencer Petras pass complete to Arland Bruce IV for 21 yds for a TD, (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +0.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 9:42: Drew Stevens 43 Yd Field Goal — IOWA win probability +0.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 2:40: Drew Stevens 33 Yd Field Goal — IOWA win probability +1.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 9 of 15NEV made the numbers' call on 11 of 21
  1. Q1 15:00IOWA 4th & 16 at IOWA 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:12IOWA 4th & 16 at IOWA 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:12NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:44NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 9:44IOWA 4th & 3 at NEV 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    91.9%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 7:11IOWA 4th & 3 at NEV 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    91.2%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q1 7:11NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 11, tied
    Close callPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q1 4:54NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 11, tied
    Close callPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 14:03NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:42IOWA 4th & 7 at NEV 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    90.9%−2.0
    average punt
  11. Q2 9:42NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 42, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  12. Q2 6:57NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 42, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  13. Q2 2:31IOWA 4th & 16 at NEV 44, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    93.8%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%
    average punt
  14. Q2 2:22IOWA 4th & 16 at NEV 44, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    93.8%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%
    average punt
  15. Q2 0:17NEV 4th & 11 at NEV 20, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  16. Q2 0:04NEV 4th & 11 at NEV 20, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  17. Q3 12:11NEV 4th & 3 at IOWA 47, down 17
    Close callPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%−0.5
    average punt
  18. Q3 12:11IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 18, up 17
    Close callPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%−1.0
    average punt
  19. Q3 10:02IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 18, up 17
    Close callPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%−0.9
    average punt
  20. Q3 10:02NEV 4th & 2 at IOWA 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    4.9%−1.0
    47% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−1.5
    average punt
  21. Q3 6:23NEV 4th & 2 at IOWA 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    4.0%−1.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−1.6
    average punt
  22. Q3 5:18NEV 4th & 17 at IOWA 39, down 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.6%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    4.7%
    average punt
  23. Q3 2:40IOWA 4th & 10 at NEV 15, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    93.9%−2.1
    average punt
  24. Q3 2:40NEV 4th & 16 at NEV 19, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  25. Q3 0:39NEV 4th & 16 at NEV 19, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  26. Q4 14:47IOWA 4th & 11 at IOWA 36, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  27. Q4 14:47NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 37, down 20
    Close callPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  28. Q4 12:16NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 37, down 20
    Close callPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  29. Q4 12:16IOWA 4th & 10 at IOWA 35, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  30. Q4 9:26IOWA 4th & 10 at IOWA 35, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  31. Q4 9:26NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 15, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  32. Q4 8:33NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 15, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  33. Q4 8:22NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 46, down 27
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  34. Q4 6:04NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 46, down 27
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  35. Q4 6:04IOWA 4th & 3 at midfield, up 27
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  36. Q4 2:46IOWA 4th & 3 at midfield, up 27
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 4:36IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:23IOWA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 8:22IOWA Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:4896% → 95%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
95.8%
Gavin Williams run for 1 yd to the Iowa 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+2
95.8%
Spencer Petras run for 2 yds to the Iowa 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+21
95.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Arland Bruce IV for 21 yds to the Iowa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
95.8%
Gavin Williams run for 3 yds to the Iowa 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
95.8%
Gavin Williams run for no gain to the Iowa 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 47
-9
95.8%
Spencer Petras sacked by Drue Watts for a loss of 9 yards to the Iowa 38Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 38
0
95.8%
Tory Taylor punt for 62 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q1 11:12
4TH & 16
OWN 38
0
95.0%
Tory Taylor punt for 62 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:285% → 5%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
95.1%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
95.1%
Toa Taua run for 6 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
95.1%
Shane Illingworth pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:12
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
95.1%
Matt Freem punt for 37 yds, downed at the Iowa 35Similar
Q1 9:44
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
94.8%
Matt Freem punt for 37 yds, downed at the Iowa 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:3395% → 94%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
94.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 9 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+4
94.9%
Gavin Williams run for 4 yds to the Iowa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
94.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 7 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 3
OPP 45
0
94.9%
Gavin Williams run for no gain to the Nevad 45Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
94.9%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:44
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
94.8%
Tory Taylor punt for 42 yds, downed at the Nevad 3Similar
Q1 7:11
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
94.2%
Tory Taylor punt for 42 yds, downed at the Nevad 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:176% → 6%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
94.1%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the Nevad 3Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+5
94.1%
Toa Taua run for 5 yds to the Nevad 8Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 5
OWN 8
+3
94.2%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 3 yds to the Nevad 11Similar
Q1 7:11
4TH & 2
OWN 11
+13
94.2%
Matt Freem punt for 42 yds , Arland Bruce IV returns for 13 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q1 4:54
4TH & 2
OWN 11
+13
93.7%
Matt Freem punt for 42 yds , Arland Bruce IV returns for 13 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5TD
2 plays · 40 yds · 0:1894% → 95%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
93.8%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+40
94.6%
Kaleb Johnson run for 40 yds for a TD, (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6INT
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:536% → 6%
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
94.4%
Devonte Lee run for 8 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
94.2%
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd to the Nevad 34Similar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
94.3%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
94.3%
Shane Illingworth pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
94.3%
Shane Illingworth pass interceptedSimilar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
94.0%
Shane Illingworth pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7TD
5 plays · 41 yds · 2:2094% → 95%
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
94.4%
Gavin Williams run for 1 yd to the Nevad 40Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+10
94.3%
PETRAS, Spencer pass up the middle incomplete intended for RAGAINI, Nico thrown to the NEV32. PENALTY NEV Pass Interference on SANDERS, Bentlee enforced 10 yards to the NEV30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
94.4%
Kaleb Johnson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+5
94.4%
Kaleb Johnson run for 5 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q1 0:23
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+21
95.3%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Arland Bruce IV for 21 yds for a TD, (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:205% → 5%
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.8%
Toa Taua run for 5 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.7%
Toa Taua run for 5 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
94.7%
Shane Illingworth pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-2
94.7%
Shane Illingworth sacked by John Waggoner and Lukas Van Ness for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 28Similar
Q2 14:03
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
94.7%
Matt Freem punt for 66 yds, downed at the Iowa 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 4:2195% → 96%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
95.0%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+12
95.0%
Gavin Williams run for 12 yds to the Iowa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
95.1%
Gavin Williams run for 7 yds to the Iowa 25Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+10
95.1%
Gavin Williams run for 10 yds to the Iowa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
95.1%
Spencer Petras run for 5 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
95.2%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+32
95.1%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Gavin Williams for 32 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
95.3%
Kaleb Johnson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
95.3%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 7
OPP 25
0
95.2%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:42
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+43
96.0%
Drew Stevens 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:455% → 5%
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.5%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
95.5%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 4 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
95.5%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Jacob Munro for 10 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
95.4%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 42Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
95.4%
Shane Illingworth pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
95.5%
Shane Illingworth pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:42
4TH & 9
OWN 42
+25
95.6%
Matt Freem punt for 48 yds , Arland Bruce IV returns for 25 yds to the Iowa 35Similar
Q2 6:57
4TH & 9
OWN 42
+25
95.4%
Matt Freem punt for 48 yds , Arland Bruce IV returns for 25 yds to the Iowa 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11PUNT
13 plays · 21 yds · 4:3596% → 96%
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
95.9%
Gavin Williams run for 4 yds to the Iowa 39Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
96.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 4 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+4
95.9%
Gavin Williams run for 4 yds to the Iowa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
96.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Kaleb Johnson for 7 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 3
OPP 46
0
96.0%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+8
95.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Arland Bruce IV for 8 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-7
96.0%
Spencer Petras sacked by Naki Mateialona for a loss of 7 yards to the Nevad 45Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 17
OPP 45
-5
96.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Gavin Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 22
50
+6
95.8%
Gavin Williams run for 6 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 22
50
+6
96.2%
Gavin Williams run for 6 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q2 2:31
4TH & 16
OPP 44
0
96.0%
Tory Taylor punt for 42 yds, downed at the Nevad 2Similar
Q2 2:22
4TH & 16
OPP 44
0
96.0%
Tory Taylor punt for 42 yds, downed at the Nevad 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12PUNT
14 plays · 18 yds · 2:184% → 5%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
95.6%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 1Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 11
OWN 1
+4
95.6%
Shane Illingworth run for 4 yds to the Nevad 5Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 11
OWN 1
+4
95.4%
Shane Illingworth run for 4 yds to the Nevad 5Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 7
OWN 5
+16
95.4%
Devonte Lee run for 16 yds to the Nevad 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
95.1%
Devonte Lee run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 19Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+2
95.3%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+2
95.0%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 10
OWN 21
-1
95.1%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 20Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 10
OWN 21
-1
95.1%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 20Similar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 11
OWN 20
0
95.1%
Matt Freem punt for 50 yds, downed at the Iowa 30Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 11
OWN 20
0
95.1%
Matt Freem punt for 50 yds, downed at the Iowa 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:495% → 5%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
95.1%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Toa Taua for 7 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
94.8%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
94.8%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
94.9%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Devonte Lee for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
50
+3
94.7%
Devonte Lee run for 3 yds to the Iowa 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
94.8%
Shane Illingworth pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:11
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
95.3%
Matt Freem punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Arland Bruce IV at the Iowa 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0996% → 96%
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
95.6%
Gavin Williams run for 5 yds to the Iowa 14Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+4
95.7%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Brody Brecht for 4 yds to the Iowa 18Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 1
OWN 18
0
95.5%
Gavin Williams run for no gain to the Iowa 18Similar
Q3 12:11
4TH & 1
OWN 18
+7
95.4%
Tory Taylor punt for 51 yds , Bentlee Sanders returns for 7 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q3 10:02
4TH & 1
OWN 18
+7
96.0%
Tory Taylor punt for 51 yds , Bentlee Sanders returns for 7 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16MISSED FG
16 plays · 23 yds · 4:445% → 4%
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
95.3%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Toa Taua for 1 yd to the Nevad 39Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+6
95.4%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Jacob Munro for 6 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+13
95.2%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 13 yds to the Iowa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
95.0%
LEE, Devonte rush to the right for no gain to the UI42 (DEJEAN, Cooper;CAMPBELL, Jack). PENALTY NEV Holding on HAMILTON, Trey enforced 10 yards from the UI42 to the NEV48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 20
OWN 48
+9
95.4%
Devonte Lee run for 9 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+8
95.2%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 8 yds to the Iowa 35Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+1
94.9%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Iowa 34Similar
Q3 10:02
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+2
95.2%
Nate Cox run for 2 yds to the Iowa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
94.7%
NEVADA Penalty, Personal Foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 16
OPP 38
-6
95.4%
Devonte Lee run for a loss of 6 yards to the Iowa 44Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 22
OPP 44
0
95.7%
Shane Illingworth pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:02
4TH & 22
OPP 44
+5
95.7%
IOWA Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the Iowa 39Similar
Q3 6:23
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+2
95.8%
Nate Cox run for 2 yds to the Iowa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
95.4%
NEVADA Penalty, Personal Foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 16
OPP 38
-6
95.8%
Devonte Lee run for a loss of 6 yards to the Iowa 44Similar
Q3 5:18
4TH & 17
OPP 39
+57
96.2%
Brandon Talton 57 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17FG
5 plays · 46 yds · 2:3897% → 98%
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+46
96.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 46 yds to the Nevad 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
96.9%
Gavin Williams run for no gain to the Nevad 15Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-7
96.9%
Spencer Petras sacked by Dom Peterson for a loss of 7 yards to the Nevad 22Similar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 17
OPP 22
+7
96.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Gavin Williams for 7 yds to the Nevad 15Similar
Q3 2:40
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+33
98.2%
Drew Stevens 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 2:012% → 1%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.4%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
98.4%
Shane Illingworth sacked by Aaron Graves for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 22Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-3
98.5%
Shane Illingworth sacked by Deontae Craig for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 19Similar
Q3 2:40
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+3
98.5%
Matt Freem punt for 47 yds , Arland Bruce IV returns for 3 yds to the Iowa 37Similar
Q3 0:39
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+3
98.7%
Matt Freem punt for 47 yds , Arland Bruce IV returns for 3 yds to the Iowa 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5299% → 99%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
98.8%
Kaleb Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 36Similar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
98.8%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:39
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
98.7%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
98.8%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 11
OWN 36
+42
98.7%
Tory Taylor punt for 42 yds , Bentlee Sanders returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 2:311% → 1%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
98.8%
Shane Illingworth pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
98.8%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 5 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
98.8%
Shane Illingworth pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 5
OWN 26
+5
98.8%
FREEM, Matt punt 38 yards to the UI36, BRUCE IV, Arland return 12 yards to the UI48 (BARCELOS, Nick). PENALTY UI Running Into the kicker on REXROTH, Jaxon enforced 5 yards from the NEV26 to the NEV31 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
98.7%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to BJ Casteel for 2 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+5
98.7%
IOWA Penalty, Offsides (Chris Reames) to the Nevad 38Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 3
OWN 38
-1
98.7%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 37Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
98.7%
Shane Illingworth pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
98.7%
Matt Freem punt for 39 yds, downed at the Iowa 24Similar
Q4 12:16
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
99.1%
Matt Freem punt for 39 yds, downed at the Iowa 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:5099% → 99%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
99.0%
Kaleb Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 21Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 13
OWN 21
+4
99.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 4 yds to the Iowa 25Similar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+10
99.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 10 yds to the Iowa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.1%
Gavin Williams run for no gain to the Iowa 35Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
99.0%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
99.0%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:16
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
99.0%
Tory Taylor punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Bentlee Sanders at the Nevad 13Similar
Q4 9:26
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
99.0%
Tory Taylor punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Bentlee Sanders at the Nevad 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:531% → 1%
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
99.2%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the Nevad 15Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
99.2%
Shane Illingworth pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
99.2%
Shane Illingworth pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:26
4TH & 8
OWN 15
0
99.2%
Matt Freem punt for 40 yds, downed at the Iowa 45Similar
Q4 8:33
4TH & 8
OWN 15
0
99.2%
Matt Freem punt for 40 yds, downed at the Iowa 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 23TD
1 play · 55 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
99.9%
Kaleb Johnson run for 55 yds for a TD, (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:180% → 0%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Toa Taua run for 6 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
99.9%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 8 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
99.9%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 3 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+5
99.9%
ILLINGWORTH, Shane pass to the left incomplete intended for CAMPBELL, Dalevon thrown to the UI35. PENALTY UI Offsides on LLEWELLYN, Max enforced 5 yards from the NEV42 to the NEV47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 2
OWN 47
-1
99.9%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 46Similar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Shane Illingworth pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:22
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Matt Freem punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Arland Bruce IV at the Iowa 15Similar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Matt Freem punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Arland Bruce IV at the Iowa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:18100% → 100%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
99.9%
NEVADA Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Christopher Love) to the Iowa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
99.9%
Jaziun Patterson run for 3 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+6
99.9%
Jaziun Patterson run for 6 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+3
99.9%
Jaziun Patterson run for 3 yds to the Iowa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
99.9%
Jaziun Patterson run for 4 yds to the Iowa 47Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+3
99.9%
Jaziun Patterson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 3
50
0
99.9%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 3
50
0
99.9%
Tory Taylor punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bentlee Sanders at the Nevad 14Similar
Q4 2:46
4TH & 3
50
0
99.9%
Tory Taylor punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bentlee Sanders at the Nevad 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 26END OF GAME
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:460% → 0%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
100.0%
Cross Patton run for 5 yds to the Nevad 19Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 5
OWN 19
-1
100.0%
Cross Patton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 18Similar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+8
100.0%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 8 yds to the Nevad 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
100.0%
Wesley Kommer run for 7 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+4
100.0%
Wesley Kommer run for 4 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+4
100.0%
Wesley Kommer run for 4 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q3 2:40
Drew Stevens 33 Yd Field Goal
+1.4
TD · Q1 0:23
Spencer Petras pass complete to Arland Bruce IV for 21 yds for a TD, (Drew Stevens KICK)
+0.9
PUNT · Q1 11:12
Tory Taylor punt for 62 yds for a touchback
-0.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com