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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadWAG aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreWAG score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:31 · Jude McAtamney 49 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:52: Kyle Monangai 2 Yd Run (Jude McAtamney Kick) — WAG win probability +0.2 pts (now 1%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q1 4:51: Aron Cruickshank 40 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Jude McAtamney Kick) — RUTG win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:00: Isaiah Washington 43 Yd pass from Johnny Langan (Jude McAtamney Kick) — RUTG win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:53: Jayvin Little 8 Yd pass from Nick Kargman (Austin Hosier Kick) — WAG win probability +0.4 pts (now 1%) (top driver: WAG has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:02: Johnny Langan 10 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Jude McAtamney Kick) — RUTG win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 2 of 3WAG made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
- Q1 12:19WAG 4th & 4 at RUTG 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%48% to convertField goal0.6%−0.138% to makePunt0.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 12:19WAG 4th & 4 at RUTG 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%48% to convertField goal0.6%−0.138% to makePunt0.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 5:25WAG 4th & 17 at WAG 18, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q1 5:25WAG 4th & 17 at WAG 18, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q1 3:45WAG 4th & 13 at WAG 22, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q2 7:14RUTG 4th & 9 at WAG 14, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.2%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call99.2%84% to makePunt98.8%−0.4average punt
- Q2 6:13WAG 4th & 4 at WAG 26, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q2 6:13WAG 4th & 4 at WAG 26, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q2 4:31RUTG 4th & 7 at WAG 31, up 21Close callKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.2%37% to convertField goalTheir call99.2%−<0.154% to makePunt99.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 2:13WAG 4th & 15 at WAG 36, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q3 15:00RUTG 4th & 5 at WAG 32, up 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%42% to convertField goal99.7%−<0.151% to makePunt99.7%−0.1average punt
- Q3 5:50WAG 4th & 5 at WAG 42, down 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:45WAG 4th & 1 at WAG 44, down 59Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt-0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 1:51WAG 4th & 13 at WAG 22, down 59Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WAG made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 7:52RUTG Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:51RUTG Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:35RUTG Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:53WAG Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.7%97% to makeGo for two0.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:02RUTG Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:06RUTG Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWAGDrive 1DOWNS6 plays · -2 yds · 2:411% → 1%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 40
-6
99.5%
run for a loss of 6 yards to the Rutgr 46 fumbled, recovered by Wagn Nick KargmanSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 46
+8
99.5%
Nick Kargman pass complete to Julian Jordan for 8 yds to the Rutgr 38Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-8
99.5%
Nick Kargman pass complete to Naiem Simmons for a loss of 8 yards to the Rutgr 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 2TD12 plays · 62 yds · 4:2799% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 3PUNT6 plays · -7 yds · 2:271% → 1%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
99.1%
KARGMAN, Nick pass to the right complete for 4 yards to SIMMONS, Naiem caught at the WAG29 and advanced to the WAG29 (JENNINGS, Deion;ABRAHAM, Kessawn). PENALTY WAG Chop Block on RAU, Matthew enforced half the distance from the goal, 13 yards from the WAG25 to the WAG12 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4TD3 plays · 52 yds · 0:3499% → 99%
WAGDrive 5PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:061% → 1%
Q1 3:55
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-5
99.1%
BROWN, Joshua punt 39 yards to the RUT34, fair catch by CRUICKSHANK, Aron. PENALTY Before the snap, WAG Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the WAG27 to the WAG22. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 6TD1 play · 41 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 7PUNT3 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
99.3%
Nick Kargman pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 18 yds to the Wagn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 8TD3 plays · 56 yds · 1:1699% → 100%
WAGDrive 9TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:070% → 1%
Q2 13:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
99.6%
Nick Kargman pass complete to Anthony Thornton for a loss of 2 yards to the Wagn 25Similar
Q2 13:43
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.6%
KARGMAN, Nick pass to the left incomplete intended for JORDAN, Julian thrown to the RUT50. PENALTY RUT Face mask on YOUNG, Avery enforced 15 yards from the WAG25 to the WAG40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
99.6%
Nick Kargman pass complete to Justin Wolf for 7 yds to the Wagn 47Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+6
99.6%
Nick Kargman pass complete to Randy Fizer for 6 yds to the Rutgr 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+24
99.6%
Nick Kargman pass complete to Randy Fizer for 24 yds to the Rutgr 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
99.5%
Nick Kargman pass complete to Julian Jordan for 6 yds to the Rutgr 17Similar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
99.6%
KARGMAN, Nick pass to the left incomplete intended for SIMMONS, Naiem thrown to the RUT0. PENALTY RUT Pass Interference on IZIEN, Christian enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards to the RUT8 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 10INT5 plays · 28 yds · 1:0899% → 99%
WAGDrive 11INT1 play · -5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 12MISSED FG7 plays · 12 yds · 2:1699% → 99%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
99.4%
Evan Simon pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for 3 yds to the Wagn 12Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 7
OPP 12
-10
99.4%
MONANGAI, Kyle rush to the left for a gain of 8 yards to the WAG4 (SMITH, Justin). PENALTY RUT Holding on KONOPKA, Victor enforced 10 yards from the WAG12 to the WAG22 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 17
OPP 22
+1
99.4%
Evan Simon pass complete to Joshua Youngblood for 1 yd to the Wagn 21Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 16
OPP 21
+7
99.4%
Evan Simon pass complete to Kyle Monangai for 7 yds to the Wagn 14Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 16
OPP 21
+7
99.4%
Evan Simon pass complete to Kyle Monangai for 7 yds to the Wagn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:011% → 1%
RUTGDrive 14FG7 plays · 14 yds · 1:4299% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 11 yds · 2:181% → 1%
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.2%
Nick Kargman pass complete to Chase Stafford for 7 yds to the Wagn 32Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
99.2%
Nick Kargman pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 11 yds to the Wagn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
4TH & 15
OWN 36
0
99.1%
Dylan Hach punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Aron Cruickshank at the Rutgr 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 16TD5 plays · 71 yds · 1:1199% → 100%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+22
99.3%
Evan Simon pass complete to Joshua Youngblood for 22 yds to the Wagn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
99.3%
Evan Simon pass complete to Joshua Youngblood for 16 yds to the Wagn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
99.3%
Evan Simon pass complete to Joshua Youngblood for 12 yds to the Wagn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.8%
Johnny Langan 10 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Jude McAtamney Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 17END OF HALF2 plays · 2 yds · 1:020% → 0%
RUTGDrive 18TD9 plays · 65 yds · 2:54100% → 100%
WAGDrive 19INT3 plays · 0 yds · 0:240% → 0%
RUTGDrive 20TD6 plays · 57 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 11:42
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+33
99.9%
Evan Simon pass complete to Al-Shadee Salaam for 33 yds to the Wagn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 21PUNT9 plays · 17 yds · 3:480% → 0%
Q3 9:38
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
99.9%
Nick Kargman pass complete to Trevor Shorter for 7 yds to the Wagn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
99.9%
Branden Rankins run for 1 yd to the Wagn 38 Nick Kargman pass complete to Trevor Shorter for 7 yds to the Wagn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Dylan Hach punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Rashad Rochelle at the Rutgr 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 22TD19 plays · 78 yds · 9:03100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+6
99.9%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Nasir Montgomery for 6 yds to the Wagn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 23DOWNS8 plays · 19 yds · 4:020% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 24TD6 plays · 44 yds · 3:23100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 25PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 2:310% → 0%
RUTGDrive 26END OF GAME4 plays · -10 yds · 1:51100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:02
Johnny Langan 10 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Jude McAtamney Kick)
+0.5
TD · Q2 10:53
Jayvin Little 8 Yd pass from Nick Kargman (Austin Hosier Kick)
-0.4
TD · Q1 0:00
Isaiah Washington 43 Yd pass from Johnny Langan (Jude McAtamney Kick)
+0.3