Try the model
OHIO

Ohio 10 at Penn State 46

PSU
2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Beaver Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreOHIO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDSAFETYFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG+0.3PSU 97.0%Jake Pinegar 25 Yd Field GoalAWAY 0 - HOME 19 · Q2 5:14
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:14 · Jake Pinegar 25 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 73Pregame prior+36.1Home team on offense+14.7Score differential+8.2Garbage-time factor+3.7Blowout margin−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:45: Sean Clifford 1 Yd Run (Jake Pinegar Kick) — PSU win probability +0.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:28: Nicholas Singleton 70 Yd Run (Jake Pinegar Kick) — PSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:34: Sieh Bangura 1 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick) — OHIO win probability +2.0 pts (now 6%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:15: Mitchell Tinsley 7 Yd pass from Sean Clifford (Jake Pinegar Kick) — PSU win probability +2.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:25: Omari Evans 32 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Jake Pinegar Kick) — PSU win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9OHIO made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 12:36OHIO 4th & 14 at OHIO 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:50PSU 4th & 2 at OHIO 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    93.9%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    93.9%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:58OHIO 4th & 6 at OHIO 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:47OHIO 4th & 3 at OHIO 40, down 14
    Close callPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:14PSU 4th & 18 at OHIO 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    94.5%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:12PSU 4th & 3 at OHIO 37, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    94.9%−0.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    94.9%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:14OHIO 4th & 2 at PSU 43, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    5.2%−0.5
    28% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:14PSU 4th & 4 at OHIO 8, up 16
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.0%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    93.9%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:46PSU 4th & 8 at OHIO 25, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    94.8%−2.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:33OHIO 4th & 14 at OHIO 46, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:11OHIO 4th & 2 at OHIO 33, down 26
    Close callPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:39PSU 4th & 20 at PSU 20, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:48OHIO 4th & 5 at OHIO 35, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:44OHIO 4th & 12 at OHIO 23, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:56PSU 4th & 1 at OHIO 32, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:36OHIO 4th & 7 at PSU 21, down 39
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:50OHIO 4th & 3 at PSU 3, down 39
    Close callKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:16PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 41, up 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:19OHIO 4th & 9 at OHIO 8, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:15PSU 4th & 13 at OHIO 42, up 36
    Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    100.0%
    30% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6OHIO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:45PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:28PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:34OHIO Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:15PSU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:25PSU Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:33PSU Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:44PSU Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OHIODrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 2:183% → 3%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
97.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+1
97.3%
Sieh Bangura run for 1 yd to the Ohio 24Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+16
97.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Tyler Walton for 16 yds to the Ohio 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
97.1%
Kurtis Rourke run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ohio 36Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 14
OWN 36
0
97.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Tyler WaltonSimilar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 14
OWN 36
0
97.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Sieh BanguraSimilar
Q1 12:36
4TH & 14
OWN 36
+3
97.0%
Jonah Wieland punt for 44 yds , Parker Washington returns for 3 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 5:5197% → 97%
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
97.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jaden Dottin for 9 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+6
97.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 6 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
96.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 11 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
96.8%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the Ohio 48Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
96.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 15 yds to the Ohio 33 PENN ST Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the Ohio 48Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+8
96.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 8 yds to the Ohio 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
96.7%
Sean Clifford run for no gain to the Ohio 40Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
96.6%
Keyvone Lee run for no gain to the Ohio 40Similar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+8
96.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 8 yds to the Ohio 32Similar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+16
96.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Tyler Warren for 16 yds to the Ohio 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
96.2%
Sean Clifford run for 15 yds to the Ohio 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.5%
Sean Clifford 1 Yd Run (Jake Pinegar Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3PUNT
12 plays · 28 yds · 3:424% → 4%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
96.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Tyler FosterSimilar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-5
96.4%
OHIO Penalty, False Start (Hagen Meservy) to the Ohio 12Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 15
OWN 12
+10
96.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to James Bostic for 10 yds to the Ohio 22Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+6
96.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 6 yds to the Ohio 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
96.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sieh Bangura for 7 yds to the Ohio 35Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+1
96.1%
Sieh Bangura run for 1 yd to the Ohio 36Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+5
96.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Tyler Foster for 5 yds to the Ohio 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
95.9%
Sieh Bangura run for 4 yds to the Ohio 45Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
95.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:14
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
95.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Sam WigluszSimilar
Q1 2:58
4TH & 6
OWN 45
+5
95.8%
Jonah Wieland punt for 45 yds , Parker Washington returns for 5 yds to the PnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4TD
2 plays · 85 yds · 0:3096% → 97%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
95.8%
Singleton, Nicholas rush for loss of 1 yard to the PENNST14, PENALTY OHIO face mask (Houston, Bryce) 15 yards to the PENNST30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
96.5%
Nicholas Singleton 70 Yd Run (Jake Pinegar Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:364% → 4%
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
96.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to James Bostic for 7 yds to the Ohio 28Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+5
96.2%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (PJ Mustipher) to the Ohio 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
96.2%
Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds to the Ohio 35Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+5
96.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Alec Burton for 5 yds to the Ohio 40Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
96.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Sieh BanguraSimilar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 3
OWN 40
+30
96.0%
Jonah Wieland punt for 42 yds , Parker Washington returns for 30 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:3397% → 96%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
96.5%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+14
96.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 14 yds to the Ohio 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
96.5%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Mitchell TinsleySimilar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-3
96.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 41Similar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 13
OPP 41
0
96.3%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jaden DottinSimilar
Q2 13:25
4TH & 13
OPP 41
-5
96.1%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ohio 46Similar
Q2 13:14
4TH & 18
OPP 46
0
96.1%
Barney Amor punt for 45 yds, downed at the Ohio 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7SF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
96.0%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8DOWNS
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:5297% → 97%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
96.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for no gain to the PnSt 36Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+20
96.5%
Sean Clifford run for 20 yds to the Ohio 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
96.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jaden Dottin for 5 yds to the Ohio 39Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 5
OPP 39
-10
96.7%
Sean Clifford sacked by Kai Caesar and Vonnie Watkins for a loss of 10 yards to the Ohio 49Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 15
OPP 49
+12
96.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 12 yds to the Ohio 37Similar
Q2 10:12
4TH & 3
OPP 37
-1
96.6%
Sean Clifford sacked by Jeremiah Burton for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9DOWNS
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:584% → 4%
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
96.0%
Kurtis Rourke run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
50
+7
96.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Tyler Walton for 7 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 3
OPP 43
0
95.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Tyler WaltonSimilar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 3
OPP 43
0
96.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Tyler WaltonSimilar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
96.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Miles CrossSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 4:0097% → 97%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
96.9%
Kaytron Allen run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 3
50
+11
96.9%
Kaytron Allen run for 11 yds to the Ohio 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-11
96.9%
Sean Clifford sacked by John Gregory and Bryce Houston for a loss of 11 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 21
50
+22
96.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 22 yds to the Ohio 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
96.8%
Kaytron Allen run for no gain to the Ohio 28Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+14
96.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 14 yds to the Ohio 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
96.8%
Sean Clifford run for no gain to the Ohio 14Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+6
96.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Devyn Ford for 6 yds to the Ohio 8Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 4
OPP 8
0
96.7%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:14
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+25
97.0%
Jake Pinegar 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 11TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:403% → 6%
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
96.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 15 yds to the Ohio 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
96.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Sam WigluszSimilar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
96.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sieh Bangura for 6 yds to the Ohio 46Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+22
96.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for a loss of 9 yards to the Ohio 37, lat. to Sieh Bangura for 22 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
96.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 12 yds to the PnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
96.0%
Sieh Bangura run for 11 yds to the PnSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+17
96.0%
Jacoby Jones pass complete to Kurtis Rourke for 17 yds to the PnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.0%
Sieh Bangura 1 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 1:1495% → 98%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
95.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 4 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+16
95.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 16 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
95.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Devyn Ford for 7 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+10
95.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 10 yds to the Ohio 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
95.6%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
95.5%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+34
95.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 34 yds to the Ohio 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
98.0%
Mitchell Tinsley 7 Yd pass from Sean Clifford (Jake Pinegar Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
96.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14MISSED FG
6 plays · 50 yds · 1:1498% → 98%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+48
97.8%
Nicholas Singleton run for 48 yds to the Ohio 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
98.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the Ohio 25Similar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
98.0%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Mitchell TinsleySimilar
Q3 13:57
3RD & 8
OPP 25
0
97.9%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Nicholas SingletonSimilar
Q3 13:46
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+42
97.7%
Jake Pinegar 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:133% → 3%
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Will KacmarekSimilar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+25
96.7%
Kurtis Rourke run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
50
0
96.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to James BosticSimilar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 10
50
-3
96.6%
Kurtis Rourke run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 47Similar
Q3 12:17
3RD & 13
OWN 47
-1
96.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Tyler Walton for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 46Similar
Q3 11:33
4TH & 14
OWN 46
0
97.0%
Jonah Wieland punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 2:0898% → 99%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
97.9%
Kaytron Allen run for no gain to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+12
97.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Brenton Strange for 12 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
98.1%
Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+22
98.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Parker Washington for 7 yds to the Ohio 47, OHIO Penalty, Roughing Passer (Keye Thompson) to the Ohio 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
99.4%
Omari Evans 32 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Jake Pinegar Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:140% → 0%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.6%
Nolan McCormick run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 22Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
99.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Nolan McCormickSimilar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+11
99.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 11 yds to the Ohio 33Similar
Q3 8:11
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
99.6%
Jonah Wieland punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Parker Washington at the PnSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:3299% → 99%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
99.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 26Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 14
OWN 26
-6
99.4%
Drew Allar sacked by Bryce Houston for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 20Similar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 20
OWN 20
0
99.4%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Omari EvansSimilar
Q3 6:39
4TH & 20
OWN 20
0
99.4%
Barney Amor punt for 50 yds, downed at the Ohio 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:510% → 0%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.6%
Sieh Bangura run for 5 yds to the Ohio 35Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
99.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Miles CrossSimilar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
99.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Aramoni RhoneSimilar
Q3 5:48
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
99.6%
Jack Wilson punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20TD
3 plays · 52 yds · 1:15100% → 100%
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
99.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the Ohio 49Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+5
99.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 5 yds to the Ohio 44Similar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+44
99.8%
Nicholas Singleton 44 Yd Run (Jake Pinegar Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:490% → 0%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.8%
Nolan McCormick run for 3 yds to the Ohio 28Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Parker Navarro pass incomplete to James BosticSimilar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
99.8%
Parker Navarro sacked by Johnny Dixon for a loss of 5 yards to the Ohio 23Similar
Q3 2:44
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+8
99.9%
Jonah Wieland punt for 40 yds , Parker Washington returns for 8 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 4:00100% → 100%
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
99.8%
Drew Allar run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 5
50
+1
99.8%
Drew Allar run for 1 yd to the Ohio 49Similar
Q3 1:36
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+8
99.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaden Saunders for 8 yds to the Ohio 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
99.8%
Drew Allar run for 8 yds to the Ohio 33Similar
Q3 0:37
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+1
99.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 1 yd to the Ohio 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 32
0
99.9%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+3
99.9%
Drew Allar run for 3 yds to the Ohio 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
99.9%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the Ohio 28Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+28
99.9%
Khalil Dinkins 28 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Jake Pinegar PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 23FG
16 plays · 76 yds · 6:470% → 0%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
99.9%
Parker Navarro run for 1 yd to the Ohio 22Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+14
99.9%
Nolan McCormick run for 14 yds to the Ohio 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
99.9%
Parker Navarro run for 7 yds to the Ohio 43Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+8
99.9%
Parker Navarro run for 8 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
99.9%
Nolan McCormick run for 3 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+8
99.9%
Parker Navarro run for 8 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
99.9%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Nolan McCormick for 14 yds to the PnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
99.9%
Parker Navarro run for 3 yds to the PnSt 21Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
99.9%
Parker Navarro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 7
OPP 21
0
99.9%
Parker Navarro pass incomplete to Nigel Drummond IISimilar
Q4 8:36
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+14
99.9%
Parker Navarro pass complete to James Bostic for 14 yds to the PnSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
99.9%
Parker Navarro run for 4 yds to the PnSt 3Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.9%
Parker Navarro pass incomplete to Tyler WaltonSimilar
Q4 6:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.9%
Parker Navarro pass incomplete to James BosticSimilar
Q4 6:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
99.9%
Nathanial Vakos 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:27100% → 100%
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+13
99.9%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Kaden Saunders for 13 yds to the PnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
99.9%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Liam Clifford for 12 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
99.9%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Tank Smith for 2 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-2
99.9%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Omari Evans for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 41Similar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Khalil DinkinsSimilar
Q4 4:16
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Barney Amor punt for 52 yds, downed at the Ohio 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:570% → 0%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
100.0%
CJ Harris run for 1 yd to the Ohio 8Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 9
OWN 8
0
100.0%
CJ Harris pass incomplete to Keegan WilburnSimilar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 9
OWN 8
0
100.0%
CJ Harris pass incomplete to Keegan WilburnSimilar
Q4 3:19
4TH & 9
OWN 8
+1
100.0%
Jonah Wieland punt for 34 yds , Marquis Wilson returns for 1 yd to the PnSt 9 PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the PnSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 3:04100% → 100%
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
99.9%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Malick Meiga for 6 yds to the Ohio 45Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+6
100.0%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Malick Meiga for 6 yds to the Ohio 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
100.0%
Tyler Holzworth run for no gain to the Ohio 39Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-7
100.0%
Christian Veilleux sacked by Rayyan Buell for a loss of 7 yards to the Ohio 46Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 17
OPP 46
+4
100.0%
Tank Smith run for 4 yds to the Ohio 42Similar
Q4 0:15
4TH & 13
OPP 42
+10
100.0%
Tank Smith run for 10 yds to the Ohio 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
100.0%
Tyler Toledo run for 5 yds to the Ohio 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:15
Mitchell Tinsley 7 Yd pass from Sean Clifford (Jake Pinegar Kick)
+2.7
TD · Q2 1:34
Sieh Bangura 1 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)
-2
TD · Q3 9:25
Omari Evans 32 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Jake Pinegar Kick)
+1.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com