2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Ross-Ade Stadium
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Win probability · PUR
modelPUR aheadINST aheadconfidence bandkey playPUR scoreINST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:18 · Jack Ansell punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Dakota Caton at the IndSt 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 13:20: King Doerue 4 Yd Run (Mitchell Fineran Kick) — INST win probability +0.1 pts (now 2%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
- TD · Q1 9:57: Charlie Jones 7 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Mitchell Fineran Kick) — PUR win probability +0.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
- TD · Q1 6:44: Paul Piferi 26 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Mitchell Fineran Kick) — PUR win probability +0.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:50: Charlie Jones 36 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Mitchell Fineran Kick) — PUR win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:46: Charlie Jones 5 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Mitchell Fineran Kick) — PUR win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
PUR made the numbers' call on 6 of 7INST made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
- Q1 12:06INST 4th & 16 at INST 19, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q1 7:57INST 4th & 30 at INST 5, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.36% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q1 7:57INST 4th & 30 at INST 5, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.36% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q1 0:27INST 4th & 1 at PUR 1, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.8%59% to convertField goal1.7%−0.294% to makePunt1.2%−0.7average punt
- Q2 12:06PUR 4th & 1 at PUR 24, up 21Close callPunted · 98.2% before the snapGo for it98.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 8:18PUR 4th & 7 at PUR 27, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snapGo for it98.3%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.4%average punt
- Q2 5:08INST 4th & 12 at INST 36, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%average punt
- Q2 2:06INST 4th & 8 at INST 27, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.233% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 10:16PUR 4th & 1 at INST 16, up 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%71% to convertField goal99.6%−0.181% to makePunt99.2%−0.6average punt
- Q3 7:40INST 4th & 21 at INST 14, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 4:46INST 4th & 9 at INST 37, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 13:23INST 4th & 4 at INST 31, down 56Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 10:09PUR 4th & 2 at INST 36, up 56Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%57% to convertField goal99.8%−0.142% to makePunt99.8%−0.2average punt
- Q4 10:09PUR 4th & 2 at INST 36, up 56Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%57% to convertField goal99.8%−0.142% to makePunt99.8%−0.2average punt
- Q4 8:07INST 4th & 4 at INST 41, down 56Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 5:45PUR 4th & 4 at PUR 32, up 56Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it100.0%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 3:25INST 4th & 10 at INST 27, down 56Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 1:14PUR 4th & 3 at INST 48, up 56Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.9%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PUR made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 13:20PUR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:57PUR Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:44PUR Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:50PUR Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:46PUR Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:43PUR Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:54PUR Touchdown, up 55 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartINSTDrive 1FUMBLE2 plays · 5 yds · 0:002% → 2%
PURDrive 2TD4 plays · 30 yds · 1:3398% → 98%
INSTDrive 3PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 1:142% → 2%
PURDrive 4TD7 plays · 58 yds · 2:0998% → 98%
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+22
98.1%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 22 yds to the IndSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
98.1%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Tyrone Tracy for 5 yds to the IndSt 31Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+7
98.1%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Payne Durham for 7 yds to the IndSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
98.0%
Charlie Jones 7 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Mitchell Fineran Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 5PUNT6 plays · -20 yds · 2:002% → 2%
Q1 9:57
2ND & 24
OWN 11
-6
98.0%
Gavin Screws pass complete to Dakota Caton for a loss of 6 yards to the IndSt 5Similar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.0%
SCREWS, Gavin pass to the right complete for 4 yards to COLLINS, Daijon caught at the ISU29 and advanced to the ISU29 (HAMPTON, Bryce), out of bounds. PENALTY ISU Face mask on SCHNEIDER, Spencer enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards from the ISU25 to the ISU11 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:57
4TH & 30
OWN 5
+3
97.9%
Harry Traum punt for 41 yds , Charlie Jones returns for 3 yds to the IndSt 43Similar
Q1 7:57
4TH & 30
OWN 5
+3
97.9%
Harry Traum punt for 41 yds , Charlie Jones returns for 3 yds to the IndSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 6TD3 plays · 43 yds · 1:1398% → 98%
INSTDrive 7DOWNS14 plays · 73 yds · 6:172% → 2%
Q1 6:44
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+17
98.2%
Gavin Screws pass complete to Dante Hendrix for 17 yds to the IndSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+29
98.1%
Gavin Screws pass complete to Dante Hendrix for 29 yds to the Prdue 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
98.1%
Gavin Screws pass complete to Tyce Ferrell for 3 yds to the Prdue 11Similar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+7
98.1%
Gavin Screws pass complete to Dante Hendrix for 7 yds to the Prdue 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 8PUNT8 plays · 22 yds · 2:5498% → 98%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+5
98.2%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 5 yds to the Prdue 7Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 7
+8
98.2%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 8 yds to the Prdue 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
98.2%
DOERUE, King rush to the right for a gain of 7 yards to the PUR22 (KONE, Bilhal). PENALTY PUR Holding on JONES, Charlie enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards from the PUR15 to the PUR7 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 8
+9
98.2%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Tyrone Tracy for 9 yds to the Prdue 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+7
98.2%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to King Doerue for 7 yds to the Prdue 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 9INT8 plays · 34 yds · 1:192% → 2%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+33
98.2%
Gavin Screws pass complete to Dante Hendrix for 33 yds to the Prdue 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
98.2%
Gavin Screws pass intercepted PURDUE Penalty, Illegal Block ( Yards) to the Prdue 1Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
98.2%
Gavin Screws pass intercepted PURDUE Penalty, Illegal Block ( Yards) to the Prdue 1Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
98.2%
Gavin Screws pass intercepted PURDUE Penalty, Illegal Block ( Yards) to the Prdue 1Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
98.2%
Gavin Screws pass intercepted PURDUE Penalty, Illegal Block ( Yards) to the Prdue 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 26 yds · 2:2998% → 99%
Q2 8:18
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
98.5%
Jack Ansell punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Dakota Caton at the IndSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 9 yds · 3:102% → 2%
Q2 8:18
3RD & 8
OWN 40
-4
98.3%
Gavin Screws sacked by Khordae Sydnor for a loss of 4 yards to the IndSt 36Similar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 8
OWN 40
-4
98.3%
Gavin Screws sacked by Khordae Sydnor for a loss of 4 yards to the IndSt 36Similar
Q2 5:08
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
98.3%
Harry Traum punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Charlie Jones at the Prdue 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 12TD5 plays · 61 yds · 1:1899% → 99%
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
98.7%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 8 yds to the Prdue 47Similar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
98.7%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 8 yds to the Prdue 47Similar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
50
+14
98.7%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 14 yds to the IndSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
99.4%
Charlie Jones 36 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Mitchell Fineran Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:440% → 1%
Q2 2:06
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+3
99.5%
Harry Traum punt for 39 yds , Charlie Jones returns for 3 yds to the IndSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 14TD5 plays · 48 yds · 1:2099% → 100%
Q2 2:06
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+1
99.4%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 1 yd to the IndSt 33Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+28
99.4%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 28 yds to the IndSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.6%
Charlie Jones 5 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Mitchell Fineran Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 15END OF HALF1 play · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 16TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:45100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
99.6%
Austin Burton pass complete to Dylan Downing for 15 yds to the IndSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+6
99.6%
Austin Burton pass complete to Drew Biber for 6 yds to the IndSt 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+12
99.6%
Austin Burton pass complete to Deion Burks for 12 yds to the IndSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 17PUNT5 plays · -11 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q3 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-6
99.8%
Gavin Screws sacked by Branson Deen for a loss of 6 yards to the IndSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 18INT TD3 plays · 6 yds · 0:570% → 0%
INSTDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 12 yds · 1:570% → 0%
PURDrive 20TD12 plays · 73 yds · 4:52100% → 100%
Q3 4:46
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+19
99.8%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Deion Burks for 19 yds to the Prdue 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
99.8%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Preston Terrell for 6 yds to the IndSt 45Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+6
99.8%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Collin Sullivan for 6 yds to the IndSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:310% → 0%
PURDrive 22DOWNS9 plays · 23 yds · 3:14100% → 100%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
99.9%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Preston Terrell for 6 yds to the IndSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 2:020% → 0%
Q4 8:07
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
100.0%
Anthony Beacom punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Andrew Sowinski at the Prdue 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 24PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 2:22100% → 100%
Q4 5:45
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
100.0%
Brendan Cropsey punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Dakota Caton at the IndSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 2:200% → 0%
Q4 5:45
3RD & 7
OWN 30
-3
100.0%
Evan Olaes sacked by Sulaiman Kpaka and Yanni Karlaftis for a loss of 3 yards to the IndSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 26DOWNS6 plays · 29 yds · 2:11100% → 100%
INSTDrive 27END OF GAME3 plays · 9 yds · 1:140% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:50
Charlie Jones 36 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Mitchell Fineran Kick)
+0.7
TD · Q1 6:44
Paul Piferi 26 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Mitchell Fineran Kick)
+0.4
TD · Q2 0:46
Charlie Jones 5 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Mitchell Fineran Kick)
+0.2