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DUKE

Duke 31 at Northwestern 23

NU
2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:12 · Evan Hull run for 12 yds Evan Hull fumbled, recovered by Duke Brandon Johnson
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:17: NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Personal Foul (Jaheem Joseph) to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST down — DUKE win probability +0.3 pts (now 35%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 15:00: Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the Nwest 3 — DUKE win probability +1.6 pts (now 53%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 14:27: HILINSKI, Ryan pass to the right incomplete intended for GORDON, Thomas thrown to the DUK6. PENALTY DUK Pass Interference on JOINER, Darius enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the DUK6 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). — DUKE win probability +0.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:40: Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete — DUKE win probability +0.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:00: Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete — NU win probability +0.1 pts (now 3%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2DUKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 5:17NU 4th & 8 at DUKE 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    64.7%−3.2
    average punt
  2. Q3 4:00DUKE 4th & 4 at NU 21, up 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.3%−<0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q4 7:44NU 4th & 6 at DUKE 28, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q4 4:23DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 32, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
74.6%
Evan Hull run for 10 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
74.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
74.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+6
74.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 6 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2TD
5 plays · 77 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
74.3%
Jordan Waters run for 5 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+18
74.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 18 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
74.1%
Jordan Waters run for 6 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+9
74.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Waters for 9 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+23
74.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 23 yds to the Nwest 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3MISSED FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 5:1371% → 67%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
70.9%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 7 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
71.1%
Evan Hull run for no gain to the Nwest 32Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+17
71.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 17 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
71.2%
Evan Hull run for 5 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+6
71.3%
Cam Porter run for 6 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
71.2%
Cam Porter run for 4 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+14
71.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 14 yds to the Duke 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
71.3%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 8
OPP 20
-5
71.3%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (Malik Washington) to the Duke 25Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 13
OPP 25
-7
71.3%
Evan Hull run for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 32Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 20
OPP 32
+12
71.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 12 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+38
66.9%
Adam Stage 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
65.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 4 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+9
65.4%
Jordan Waters run for 9 yds to the Duke 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
65.3%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+15
65.0%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Personal Foul (Jaheem Joseph) to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5PUNT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
57.8%
Cam Porter run for 6 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
58.2%
Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-7
58.2%
Cam Porter run for a loss of 7 yards to the Nwest 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6TD
5 plays · 90 yds · 1:2149% → 53%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
51.3%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+9
51.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 9 yds to the Duke 19Similar
Q1 0:04
3RD & 1
OWN 19
-5
48.6%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (Jaylen Coleman) to the Duke 14Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
47.0%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the Nwest 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 0:0039% → 40%
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
38.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 18 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
39.5%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+25
39.4%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Genson Hooper Price for 25 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
41.0%
Evan Hull run for 6 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+4
40.4%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 4 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
41.0%
Cam Porter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 21Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 11
OPP 21
0
40.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:27
3RD & 11
OPP 21
0
40.1%
HILINSKI, Ryan pass to the right incomplete intended for GORDON, Thomas thrown to the DUK6. PENALTY DUK Pass Interference on JOINER, Darius enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the DUK6 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8PUNT
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
32.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for no gain to the Duke 22Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
32.5%
Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 7
OWN 25
-8
32.9%
Riley Leonard sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the Duke 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9DOWNS
10 plays · 38 yds · 2:4928% → 31%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
27.5%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
27.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+15
26.7%
HILINSKI, Ryan pass up the middle incomplete intended for PORTER, Cam thrown to the NWU38; QB hurried by HEYWARD, Shaka. PENALTY DUK Roughing the Passer on HEYWARD, Shaka enforced 15 yards from the NWU32 to the NWU47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
29.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-1
28.5%
Cam Porter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 46Similar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+15
27.5%
HILINSKI, Ryan pass up the middle incomplete intended for LANG, Marshall broken up by RIVERS, Chandler at the DUK42. PENALTY DUK Pass Interference on RIVERS, Chandler enforced 15 yards to the DUK39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
29.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
29.0%
Evan Hull run for 5 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+2
30.5%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Duke 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10PUNT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
26.1%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
26.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 3 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
26.3%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 4:4926% → 10%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
26.4%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-16
26.1%
HILINSKI, Ryan pass to the left incomplete intended for NAVARRO, Donny broken up by RIVERS, Chandler at the NWU36. PENALTY NWU Face mask on ROWLEY, Conrad enforced 16 yards from the NWU30 to the NWU14 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 23
OWN 14
+26
25.8%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 26 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
27.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
26.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 15 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
29.0%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+10
28.4%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 10 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
29.5%
Andrew Clair run for no gain to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
29.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+16
28.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 16 yds to the Duke 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
29.6%
run for no gain to the Duke 16Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
10.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Andrew Clair for no gain to the Duke 16Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
9.9%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13INT
9 plays · 59 yds · 0:0088% → 89%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-15
12.5%
WATERS, Jordan rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the DUK35 (JOSEPH, Jaheem), out of bounds. PENALTY DUK Face mask on DALMOLIN, Nicky enforced 15 yards from the DUK32 to the DUK17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 25
OWN 17
0
12.5%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 25
OWN 17
+10
12.6%
Riley Leonard run for 10 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 15
OWN 27
+25
13.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Eli Pancol for 25 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
11.8%
Jordan Waters run for 11 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
11.8%
Jordan Waters run for 8 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+9
10.8%
Jaylen Coleman run for 9 yds to the Nwest 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
11.5%
Jordan Moore run for 11 yds to the Nwest 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
11.5%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14MISSED FG
5 plays · 34 yds · 2:2396% → 96%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
4.0%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Adetomiwa Adebawore) to the Nwest 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
3.8%
Jaylen Coleman run for 3 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+3
3.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 3 yds to the Nwest 21Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 4
OPP 21
0
4.0%
Jaylen Coleman run for no gain to the Nwest 21Similar
Q3 4:00
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+38
3.6%
Charlie Ham 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
2.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+17
2.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 17 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
2.8%
Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the Nwest 39Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
2.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+15
2.7%
HILINSKI, Ryan pass to the right incomplete intended for NAVARRO, Donny broken up by PICKETT, Joshua at the DUK44. PENALTY DUK Pass Interference on PICKETT, Joshua enforced 15 yards to the DUK46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
3.1%
Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
3.1%
Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+4
3.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 4 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+4
3.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 4 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 3
OPP 39
0
3.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:4397% → 99%
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
3.0%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+6
3.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 6 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+51
3.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 51 yds to the Nwest 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+8
1.1%
Jaylen Coleman run for 8 yds to the Nwest 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
1.1%
Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the Nwest 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
1.1%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17DOWNS
9 plays · 37 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
1.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 5 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
1.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 15 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
1.2%
Evan Hull run for 9 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 1
OPP 46
0
1.4%
Evan Hull run for no gain to the Duke 46Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+2
1.4%
Ryan Hilinski run for 2 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
1.4%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+6
1.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Andrew Clair for 6 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 4
OPP 38
0
1.4%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:00100% → 99%
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
0.5%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+12
0.6%
Jordan Moore run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
50
+3
0.5%
Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+3
0.5%
Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q4 9:57
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
0.6%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
0.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 7 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+6
0.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 6 yds to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+35
0.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 35 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
0.4%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
0.4%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Jacob Gill for 4 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
0.4%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Jacob Gill for 4 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
0.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:44
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+14
0.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 14 yds to the Duke 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
0.4%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
0.4%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:26100% → 100%
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.3%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
0.3%
Riley Leonard run for 4 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
0.3%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:23
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+5
0.3%
Porter Wilson punt for 48 yds , Donny Navarro III returns for 5 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21INT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:520% → 0%
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 8 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 8 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
0.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass interceptedSimilar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
0.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22FG
10 plays · 33 yds · 2:09100% → 100%
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
0.2%
Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+16
0.2%
Jaylen Coleman run for 16 yds to the Nwest 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
0.2%
Jaylen Coleman run for 11 yds to the Nwest 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
0.1%
Jaylen Coleman run for 3 yds to the Nwest 2Similar
Q4 1:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
0.1%
Jaylen Coleman run for 3 yds to the Nwest 2Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
0.1%
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the Nwest 1Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.1%
Jaquez Moore run for no gain to the Nwest 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23FUMBLE
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 8 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+16
0.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 16 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
0.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 13 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
0.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 13 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+17
0.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 17 yds to the Duke 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
0.1%
DUKE Penalty, Offsides (R.J. Oben) to the Duke 16Similar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 5
OPP 16
0
0.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+4
0.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 4 yds to the Duke 12Similar
Q4 0:12
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+12
0.0%
Evan Hull run for 12 yds Evan Hull fumbled, recovered by Duke Brandon JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 15:00
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the Nwest 3
-1.6
FG · Q2 0:40
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete
-0.7
TD · Q2 14:27
HILINSKI, Ryan pass to the right incomplete intended for GORDON, Thomas thrown to the DUK6. PENALTY DUK Pass Interference on JOINER, Darius enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the DUK6 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).
-0.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com