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CSU

Colorado State 7 at Michigan 51

MICH
2022 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2022 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+1.5MICH 99.7%DJ Turner 45 Yd Fumble Return (JakeMoody Kick)AWAY 0 - HOME 30 · Q3 12:12
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Q3 12:12 · DJ Turner 45 Yd Fumble Return (Jake Moody Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 93Pregame prior+31.2Home team on offense+28.3Score differential+24.4Blowout margin+11.8Garbage-time factor+9.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:49: Roman Wilson 61 Yd pass from Cade McNamara (Jake Moody Kick) — MICH win probability +0.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 14:48: Jake Moody 26 Yd Field Goal — MICH win probability +0.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:25: Blake Corum 7 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick) — MICH win probability +1.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:11: Jake Moody 34 Yd Field Goal — CSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:12: DJ Turner 45 Yd Fumble Return (Jake Moody Kick) — MICH win probability +1.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 7 of 7CSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 14:04MICH 4th & 6 at MICH 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:27CSU 4th & 8 at CSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:06MICH 4th & 10 at CSU 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    95.4%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:36CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:48MICH 4th & 8 at CSU 8, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    93.6%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:28CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 32, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:45MICH 4th & 15 at MICH 41, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:20CSU 4th & 16 at CSU 10, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:49CSU 4th & 7 at MICH 47, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:11MICH 4th & 6 at CSU 16, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    96.9%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:12CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 41, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:28CSU 4th & 19 at CSU 26, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:03MICH 4th & 1 at CSU 40, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:33CSU 4th & 3 at MICH 34, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:43MICH 4th & 4 at CSU 4, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:00CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 34, down 44
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 6 of 6CSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:49MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:25MICH Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:12MICH Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:08MICH Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:12MICH Touchdown, up 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:59CSU Touchdown, down 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:43MICH Touchdown, up 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4498% → 98%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.7%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
97.6%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
97.6%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q1 14:04
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
97.6%
Brad Robbins punt for 51 yds , Melquan Stovall returns for no gain to the ColSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:132% → 3%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
97.6%
A'Jon Vivens run for 5 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+8
97.5%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 8 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
97.4%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 9 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+3
97.4%
A'Jon Vivens run for 3 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
97.3%
Clay Millen pass complete to A'Jon Vivens for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 44Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+5
97.2%
A'Jon Vivens run for 5 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 6
OWN 49
-2
97.1%
Clay Millen sacked by Mike Sainristil for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 47Similar
Q1 10:27
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
97.1%
Paddy Turner punt for 33 yds, downed at the Mich 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:3197% → 97%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
97.1%
Blake Corum run for 19 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
97.3%
Roman Wilson 61 Yd pass from Cade McNamara (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:343% → 3%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.2%
Clay Millen pass complete to A'Jon Vivens for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-37
97.1%
Clay Millen pass intercepted Rod Moore return for 37 yds to the ColSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5FG
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5097% → 97%
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
97.2%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
97.2%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the ColSt 13Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
97.1%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Erick AllSimilar
Q1 8:06
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+31
97.1%
Jake Moody 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:223% → 3%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
97.1%
Clay Millen pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 20 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
97.0%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 2 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+1
96.9%
A'Jon Vivens run for 1 yd to the ColSt 48Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
96.9%
Clay Millen pass incomplete to A'Jon VivensSimilar
Q1 6:36
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
97.0%
Paddy Turner punt for 31 yds, downed at the Mich 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7FG
14 plays · 71 yds · 6:2297% → 97%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
96.9%
Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+8
96.9%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 8 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
96.8%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+9
96.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 9 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
96.8%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the Mich 47Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+15
96.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 15 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
96.7%
A.J. Henning run for 6 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+9
96.6%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Blake Corum for 9 yds to the ColSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
96.6%
Donovan Edwards run for 8 yds to the ColSt 15Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+9
96.5%
Donovan Edwards run for 9 yds to the ColSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
96.4%
Blake Corum run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 10Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
96.4%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the ColSt 8Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
96.3%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
97.1%
Jake Moody 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:133% → 3%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.7%
Clay Millen pass incomplete to Tory HortonSimilar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.7%
Clay Millen run for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
96.7%
Clay Millen run for 5 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
96.7%
Paddy Turner punt for 33 yds, downed at the Mich 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:3597% → 97%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
97.1%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+6
97.1%
Blake Corum run for 6 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
97.1%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
97.1%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-8
97.0%
Cade McNamara sacked by Mohamed Kamara for a loss of 8 yards to the Mich 41Similar
Q2 10:45
4TH & 15
OWN 41
0
96.8%
Brad Robbins punt for 43 yds , Melquan Stovall returns for no gain to the ColSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:054% → 3%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
96.5%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the ColSt 18Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
96.5%
Clay Millen pass incomplete to Avery MorrowSimilar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 8
OWN 18
-8
96.6%
Clay Millen sacked by Eyabi Anoma for a loss of 8 yards to the ColSt 10Similar
Q2 9:20
4TH & 16
OWN 10
0
96.6%
Paddy Turner punt for 38 yds, downed at the ColSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 3:4597% → 98%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
97.0%
Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the ColSt 47Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+4
97.0%
Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+7
96.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 7 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
96.8%
Donovan Edwards run for 7 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+19
96.8%
Blake Corum run for 19 yds to the ColSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
96.8%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the ColSt 7Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
98.4%
Blake Corum 7 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12DOWNS
11 plays · 22 yds · 4:162% → 2%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
98.1%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 24Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-3
98.1%
Clay Millen pass complete to Ty McCullouch for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 21Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+14
98.2%
Clay Millen pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 14 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
98.1%
Clay Millen pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 3 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+12
98.1%
Clay Millen run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
50
+2
97.9%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 2 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 8
OPP 48
-11
97.9%
Clay Millen sacked by Michael Barrett for a loss of 11 yards to the ColSt 41Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 19
OWN 41
+12
98.2%
Clay Millen run for 12 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 7
OPP 47
-6
98.1%
Clay Millen sacked by R.J. Moten for a loss of 6 yards to the ColSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13FG
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:3399% → 99%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
98.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+22
98.9%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 22 yds to the ColSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
98.9%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 4 yds to the ColSt 16Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 6
OPP 16
0
98.9%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 6
OPP 16
0
98.7%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Roman WilsonSimilar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+34
98.6%
Jake Moody 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.3%
A'Jon Vivens run for 1 yd to the ColSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15FUMBLE RETURN TD
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:332% → 0%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.2%
A'Jon Vivens run for 3 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
98.1%
Clay Millen pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 10 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
98.1%
A'Jon Vivens run for 2 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+2
98.1%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 2 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 6
OWN 42
-1
98.2%
Clay Millen sacked by Kris Jenkins for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 41Similar
Q3 12:12
4TH & 7
OWN 41
+45
99.7%
DJ Turner 45 Yd Fumble Return (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 2:170% → 0%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.7%
A'Jon Vivens run for 10 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.7%
A'Jon Vivens run for 6 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-1
99.7%
A'Jon Vivens run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 40Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-14
99.7%
Clay Millen sacked by Mason Graham and Rod Moore for a loss of 14 yards to the ColSt 26Similar
Q3 9:28
4TH & 19
OWN 26
+10
99.7%
Paddy Turner punt for 44 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 10 yds to the Mich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:12100% → 100%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
99.8%
Blake Corum run for 11 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
99.8%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Roman Wilson for 4 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+1
99.8%
C.J. Stokes run for 1 yd to the ColSt 44Similar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+4
99.8%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 4 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q3 7:03
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+2
99.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.8%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Luke SchoonmakerSimilar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+18
99.8%
C.J. Stokes run for 18 yds to the ColSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.8%
J.J. McCarthy 20 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:170% → 0%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.8%
Avery Morrow run for 9 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
99.8%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
99.8%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 21 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
99.8%
Avery Morrow run for 5 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+2
99.8%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 3
OPP 34
0
99.8%
Avery Morrow run for no gain to the Mich 34Similar
Q3 2:33
4TH & 3
OPP 34
-8
99.8%
Clay Millen sacked by Mazi Smith and Jaylen Harrell for a loss of 8 yards to the Mich 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 3:08100% → 100%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
99.9%
J.J. McCarthy run for 18 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
99.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Max Bredeson for 3 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+12
99.9%
J.J. McCarthy run for 12 yds to the ColSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
99.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 5 yds to the ColSt 20Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
99.9%
Alex Orji run for no gain to the ColSt 20Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+7
99.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to A.J. Henning for 7 yds to the ColSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+12
99.9%
Donovan Edwards run for 12 yds to the ColSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Donovan Edwards 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:360% → 0%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
David Bailey run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
99.9%
Clay Millen pass complete to David Bailey for 8 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
99.9%
David Bailey run for 6 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+1
99.9%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the ColSt 44Similar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+6
99.9%
Clay Millen pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
50
+3
99.9%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+11
99.9%
David Bailey run for 11 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
100.0%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+34
100.0%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 34 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21TD
16 plays · 72 yds · 6:57100% → 100%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
99.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to C.J. Stokes for 15 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
99.9%
C.J. Stokes run for 3 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+10
99.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Matthew Hibner for 10 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
99.9%
C.J. Stokes run for 2 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+8
99.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Hunter Neff for 8 yds to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
100.0%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 4 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 6
OPP 30
-10
100.0%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Reece Atteberry) to the ColSt 40Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 16
OPP 40
+16
100.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Colston Loveland for 16 yds to the ColSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
100.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Peyton O'Leary for 4 yds to the ColSt 20Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+5
100.0%
C.J. Stokes run for 5 yds to the ColSt 15Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+6
100.0%
C.J. Stokes run for 6 yds to the ColSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
100.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Colston Loveland for 2 yds to the ColSt 7Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
100.0%
Isaiah Gash run for 3 yds to the ColSt 4Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
100.0%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Darrius ClemonsSimilar
Q4 1:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
100.0%
Alex Orji run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22END OF GAME
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:250% → 0%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
Jaylen Thomas run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
100.0%
Jaylen Thomas run for 3 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
100.0%
Jaylen Thomas run for 2 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
100.0%
Jaylen Thomas run for 5 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:25
Blake Corum 7 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)
+1.6
TD · Q3 12:12
DJ Turner 45 Yd Fumble Return (Jake Moody Kick)
+1.5
FG · Q2 14:48
Jake Moody 26 Yd Field Goal
+0.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com