Try the model
BUF

Buffalo 10 at Maryland 31

MD
2022 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2022 · SECU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:06 · Jackson Baltar punt for 51 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 119Pregame prior+18.5Home team on offense+19.7Score differential+7.4Garbage-time factor+5.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.9Time remaining+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:14: Antwain Littleton II run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK) — MD win probability +1.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:03: Al-Jay Henderson run for 19 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +3.2 pts (now 9%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:21: Roman Hemby run for 70 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK) — MD win probability +3.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 10:28: Cole Snyder pass complete to Trevor Borland for 4 yds to the Buff 37 — BUF win probability +1.2 pts (now 5%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:49: Antwain Littleton II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK) — MD win probability +1.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 5 of 8BUF made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
  1. Q1 14:12BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:24BUF 4th & 6 at MD 31, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.1%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    7.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:14MD 4th & 4 at MD 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:10BUF 4th & 12 at BUF 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:16MD 4th & 19 at MD 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−0.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:20BUF 4th & 15 at BUF 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:08BUF 4th & 2 at MD 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    7.8%−0.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−2.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:30MD 4th & 4 at BUF 27, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.0%−0.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    90.2%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:23MD 4th & 1 at BUF 41, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    89.8%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    89.3%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:16BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:14BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 47, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:14BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 47, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:22MD 4th & 9 at MD 32, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:06BUF 4th & 17 at BUF 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−1.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:06BUF 4th & 17 at BUF 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−1.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00MD 4th & 3 at BUF 44, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    95.9%−0.8
    27% to make
    Punt
    96.3%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:14BUF 4th & 16 at BUF 19, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:19MD 4th & 3 at midfield, up 24
    Close callPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:07BUF 4th & 10 at MD 16, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:54MD 4th & 6 at MD 46, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:12BUF 4th & 3 at MD 43, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%
    28% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 2 of 3BUF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 12:14MD Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:03BUF Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 14:21MD Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:49MD Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.4%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q1 14:12
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
94.4%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:12
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
94.4%
Jackson Baltar punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Tarheeb Still at the Mary 22Similar
Q1 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.4%
Ron Cook Jr. run for no gain to the Buff 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2MISSED FG
12 plays · 44 yds · 1:486% → 6%
Q1 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
94.5%
Cole Snyder sacked by Henry Chibueze for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 22Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+17
94.5%
(14:12) SNYDER, Cole pass to the left incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Quian thrown to the BUF38. PENALTY UMD Pass Interference on BANKS, Deonte enforced 17 yards to the BUF39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+17
94.3%
(12:24) SNYDER, Cole pass to the left incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Quian thrown to the BUF38, clock 12:24. PENALTY UMD Pass Interference on BANKS, Deonte enforced 17 yards to the BUF39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
94.2%
Cole Snyder run for 9 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+2
94.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
50
0
94.2%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 10
50
+15
94.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 15 yds to the Mary 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
94.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for no gain to the Mary 35Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 20
OPP 45
+9
94.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 9 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+5
94.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 5 yds to the Mary 31Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-10
94.2%
(12:24) SNYDER, Cole pass to the right incomplete thrown to the UMD30, clock 12:24. PENALTY BUF Holding on WALLACE, Gabe enforced 10 yards from the UMD35 to the UMD45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:24
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+41
94.2%
Alex McNulty 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 1:3395% → 94%
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+25
94.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 25 yds to the Mary 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
94.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 14 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
94.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
94.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 6 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+33
94.3%
Roman Hemby 33 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
93.7%
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the Mary 31Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+6
93.7%
Roman Hemby run for 6 yds to the Mary 37Similar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
93.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:14
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
93.6%
Colton Spangler punt for 63 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 10:026% → 7%
Q1 14:12
4TH & 7
OWN 37
-5
94.5%
BUFFALO Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the Buff 32Similar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
93.4%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+1
93.4%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the Buff 24Similar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+10
93.5%
(06:54) SNYDER, Cole pass to the right incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Quian thrown to the BUF27, clock 06:54. PENALTY UMD Holding on BRADE, Beau enforced 10 yards from the BUF24 to the BUF34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
93.4%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-5
93.4%
Ron Cook Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 29Similar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 15
OWN 29
+8
93.5%
Cole Snyder run for 8 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q1 6:54
4TH & 7
OWN 37
-5
93.5%
BUFFALO Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the Buff 32Similar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 12
OWN 32
0
93.1%
Jackson Baltar punt for 48 yds, downed at the Mary 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 3:5493% → 92%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
93.0%
TAGOVAILOA, Taulia pass up the middle incomplete intended for FELTON, Tai broken up by BLADES, Elijah at the UMD24. PENALTY BUF Roughing the Passer on JACKSON, Damian enforced 15 yards from the UMD20 to the UMD35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
93.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 2 yds to the Mary 37Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
93.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+15
93.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 15 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
93.3%
BROWN, Raymon rush to the left for a gain of 8 yards to the BUF40 (FUQUA, Marcus). PENALTY UMD Holding on DUNCAN, Jaelyn enforced 10 yards from the BUF48 to the UMD42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 20
OWN 42
+2
93.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Raymon Brown Jr. for 2 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 18
OWN 44
+11
92.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 11 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q1 1:10
3RD & 7
OPP 45
-12
92.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Daymond Williams for a loss of 12 yards to the Mary 43Similar
Q1 0:16
4TH & 19
OWN 43
+41
92.2%
Colton Spangler punt for 41 yds , Quian Williams returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:408% → 8%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
92.3%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+4
92.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 4 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 21
-11
92.4%
Cole Snyder sacked by Mosiah Nasili-Kite for a loss of 11 yards to the Buff 10Similar
Q2 13:20
4TH & 15
OWN 10
+17
92.3%
Jackson Baltar punt for 38 yds , Tarheeb Still returns for 17 yds to the Buff 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8TD
3 plays · 31 yds · 1:0693% → 95%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
92.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 8 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+21
92.6%
Antwain Littleton II run for 21 yds to the Buff 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.6%
Antwain Littleton II run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9DOWNS
12 plays · 46 yds · 3:066% → 7%
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
93.7%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
93.8%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 8 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+13
93.5%
Mike Washington run for 13 yds to the Mary 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
93.5%
Mike Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 45Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 11
OPP 45
0
93.7%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+17
93.8%
Cole Snyder run for 17 yds to the Mary 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
93.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the Mary 25Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
93.2%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 7
OPP 25
0
93.5%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+5
93.5%
MCNULTY, Alex field goal attempt from 44 yards NO GOOD (wide right) [kick was spotted at UMD34], clock 09:14. PENALTY UMD Offsides on BANKS, Deonte enforced 5 yards from the UMD25 to the UMD20. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:08
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+1
93.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 1 yd to the Mary 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10FG
7 plays · 54 yds · 2:3894% → 96%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
94.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to CJ Dippre for 13 yds to the Mary 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+35
94.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 35 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
94.6%
HEMBY, Roman rush up the middle for a gain of 9 yards to the BUF24 (MUSE, Jahmin). PENALTY UMD Holding on GLAZE, Delmar enforced 10 yards from the BUF33 to the BUF43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 20
OPP 43
+6
94.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 6 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 14
OPP 37
0
94.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 14
OPP 37
+10
94.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 10 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q2 6:30
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+45
95.5%
Chad Ryland 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:275% → 9%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
94.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 9 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
94.2%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
94.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the Buff 36Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
94.6%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+19
94.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 19 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
94.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 9 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+6
94.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 6 yds to the Mary 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
93.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 11 yds to the Mary 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
90.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 19 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12DOWNS
11 plays · 34 yds · 2:4092% → 92%
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
91.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 7 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
92.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 8 yds to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
92.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
92.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 6 yds to the Mary 46Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+4
92.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
50
+9
92.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 9 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 1
OPP 41
0
92.3%
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the Buff 41Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
92.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 1
OPP 41
0
91.5%
Antwain Littleton II run for no gain to the Buff 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
91.1%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:3991% → 95%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.1%
Roman Hemby run for 5 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+70
94.9%
Roman Hemby run for 70 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:055% → 5%
Q3 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Robbie Mangas for 4 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
94.6%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q3 14:21
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
94.6%
Ron Cook Jr. run for no gain to the Buff 33Similar
Q3 12:16
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+18
94.9%
Jackson Baltar punt for 45 yds , Tarheeb Still returns for 18 yds to the Mary 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16INT
4 plays · 19 yds · 1:4895% → 96%
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+22
95.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 22 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
95.5%
Raymon Brown Jr. run for no gain to the Buff 38Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-3
95.5%
Raymon Brown Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 41Similar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 13
OPP 41
0
95.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:145% → 5%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
94.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Trevor Borland for 4 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+4
94.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+3
94.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
94.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
94.6%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
94.8%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:14
4TH & 7
OWN 47
+9
95.5%
Jackson Baltar punt for 42 yds , Tarheeb Still returns for 9 yds to the Mary 20Similar
Q3 7:14
4TH & 7
OWN 47
+9
95.5%
Jackson Baltar punt for 42 yds , Tarheeb Still returns for 9 yds to the Mary 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:5296% → 96%
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
96.3%
Colby McDonald run for 1 yd to the Mary 21Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+10
96.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to CJ Dippre for 10 yds to the Mary 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
96.4%
Colby McDonald run for 1 yd to the Mary 32Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
96.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:14
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
96.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:22
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
96.0%
Anthony Pecorella punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 2:165% → 4%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
95.5%
Cole Snyder run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 34 Cole Snyder fumbled, recovered by Buff Cole SnyderSimilar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-10
95.8%
Cole Snyder sacked by Kellan Wyatt for a loss of 10 yards to the Buff 24Similar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 21
OWN 24
+4
95.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 4 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 17
OWN 28
0
96.3%
Jackson Baltar punt for 51 ydsSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-13
96.5%
TAGOVAILOA, Taulia pass to the left complete for 13 yards to JONES, Jeshaun caught at the UMD19 and advanced to the UMD34 (DOLAC, Shaun). PENALTY UMD Personal Foul on DUNCAN, Jaelyn enforced half the distance from the goal, 11 yards from the UMD21 to the UMD10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 17
OWN 28
0
96.3%
Jackson Baltar punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 4:1796% → 99%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 20
OWN 11
+9
96.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 9 yds to the Mary 20Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+13
96.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 13 yds to the Mary 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
96.6%
Antwain Littleton II run for 6 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
96.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+10
96.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 10 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
96.8%
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the Mary 49Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
97.0%
Antwain Littleton II run for 4 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+3
97.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 3 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+35
96.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 35 yds to the Buff 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
97.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 8 yds to the Buff 1Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.1%
Antwain Littleton II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:351% → 1%
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.0%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 4 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q4 13:49
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-10
99.0%
Cole Snyder sacked by Henry Chibueze for a loss of 10 yards to the Buff 19Similar
Q4 12:14
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
99.1%
Jackson Baltar punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jeshaun Jones at the Mary 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5599% → 99%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
99.1%
Jacob Copeland run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 42Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
99.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for no gain to the Mary 42Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+8
99.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 3
50
0
99.1%
Colton Spangler punt for 46 yds, downed at the Buff 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23FG
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:121% → 1%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
99.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+3
99.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 10Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 4
OWN 10
+10
99.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 10 yds to the Buff 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.2%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+15
99.2%
SNYDER, Cole pass to the left incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Quian thrown to the BUF47. PENALTY UMD Pass Interference on GIBSON, Gavin enforced 15 yards to the BUF37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.1%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+13
99.1%
Mike Washington run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
50
+34
99.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 34 yds to the Mary 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
99.0%
Mike Washington run for no gain to the Mary 16Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
99.0%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
99.1%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+34
99.4%
Alex McNulty 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:0699% → 99%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
99.3%
Colby McDonald run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 41Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+7
99.3%
pass complete to CJ Dippre for 7 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 4
OWN 48
-2
99.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 46Similar
Q4 3:54
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
99.3%
Colton Spangler punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25END OF GAME
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:541% → 1%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.5%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
99.5%
Cole Snyder run for 12 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+9
99.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
50
+5
99.4%
Cole Snyder run for 5 yds to the Mary 45Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
99.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for no gain to the Mary 45Similar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-28
99.4%
SNYDER, Cole pass to the right complete for 28 yards to WILLIAMS, Quian caught at the UMD18 and advanced to the UMD18 (WHITAKER, Lionell), 1ST DOWN. PENALTY UMD Pass Interference on WHITAKER, Lionell BUF Holding on BESSENT, Desmond , Offsetting penalties [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+2
99.4%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
99.5%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
99.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 9 yds to the Buff 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · 9 yds · 1:12100% → 100%
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
99.6%
Raymon Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+4
99.6%
Raymon Brown Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:21
Roman Hemby run for 70 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)
+3.8
TD · Q2 3:03
Al-Jay Henderson run for 19 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)
-3.2
TD · Q2 12:14
Antwain Littleton II run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)
+1.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com