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PSU

Penn State 35 at Purdue 31

PUR
2022 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2022 · Ross-Ade Stadium
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Win probability · PUR
modelPUR aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playPUR scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:04 · Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:16: King Doerue run for 2 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK) — PUR win probability +14.3 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 1:11: Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 7 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK) — PUR win probability +21.4 pts (now 65%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:44: Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 29 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +33.0 pts (now 75%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:29: Sean Clifford pass intercepted for a TD Chris Jefferson return for 72 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK) — PUR win probability +30.8 pts (now 60%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 0:57: Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 10 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +59.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PUR made the numbers' call on 8 of 10PSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 14:03PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:29PUR 4th & 10 at PSU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    43.3%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:08PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:38PUR 4th & 3 at PSU 18, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.8%−0.2
    79% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00PSU 4th & 2 at PUR 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    52.1%−0.6
    58% to make
    Punt
    49.8%−2.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:20PSU 4th & 6 at PUR 44, down 3
    Close callPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    48.3%−1.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:14PUR 4th & 9 at PUR 4, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−2.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:49PSU 4th & 7 at PSU 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:48PUR 4th & 7 at PUR 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−1.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:51PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−1.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:42PUR 4th & 1 at PSU 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    36.9%−4.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    34.4%−6.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:14PSU 4th & 17 at PSU 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−5.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:04PUR 4th & 18 at PUR 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−7.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:04PUR 4th & 6 at PUR 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−1.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:27PSU 4th & 7 at PSU 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−1.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:50PUR 4th & 30 at PUR 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−10.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:28PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:22PUR 4th & 6 at PUR 45, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%−1.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:13PUR 4th & 5 at PUR 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.5%−3.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PUR made the numbers' call on 4 of 4PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 13:09PSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:43PUR Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:44PSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:02PSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:16PUR Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:11PUR Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:44PSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:29PUR Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−0.7
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:57PSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5764% → 64%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
36.0%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q1 14:39
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
36.1%
Keyvone Lee run for 4 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q1 14:16
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
36.3%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q1 14:03
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
36.4%
Barney Amor punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Charlie Jones at the Prdue 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:3436% → 37%
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
36.4%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to King Doerue for 8 yds to the Prdue 39Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+10
36.7%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 10 yds to the Prdue 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
36.9%
King Doerue run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 9
50
+10
37.2%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 10 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
37.6%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Payne DurhamSimilar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
37.7%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Charlie JonesSimilar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
37.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to TJ SheffieldSimilar
Q1 11:29
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
37.4%
Jack Ansell punt for 36 yds, downed at the PnSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:2163% → 61%
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+9
37.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for 9 yds to the PnSt 13Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 1
OWN 13
+3
37.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the PnSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
37.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the PnSt 19Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+4
37.8%
Parker Washington run for 4 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q1 9:39
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+10
38.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 10 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
38.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+3
37.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
38.0%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
38.6%
Barney Amor punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Charlie Jones at the Prdue 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 4FG
10 plays · 73 yds · 4:3039% → 42%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
38.5%
Dylan Downing run for 3 yds to the Prdue 12Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+11
38.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 11 yds to the Prdue 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
38.8%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Broc Thompson for 9 yds to the Prdue 32Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+4
39.5%
Dylan Downing run for 4 yds to the Prdue 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
39.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Tyrone Tracy for 9 yds to the Prdue 45Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+30
40.4%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 30 yds to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
41.1%
King Doerue run for 1 yd to the PnSt 24Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
41.3%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Payne DurhamSimilar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+6
41.0%
Dylan Downing run for 6 yds to the PnSt 18Similar
Q1 3:38
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+36
41.8%
Mitchell Fineran 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5TD
14 plays · 79 yds · 5:2358% → 62%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+20
41.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 20 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
41.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 1
50
0
40.5%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker WashingtonSimilar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 1
50
+3
40.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the Prdue 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
40.9%
Kaytron Allen run for no gain to the Prdue 47Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+10
41.3%
Clifford, Sean pass incomplete to Tinsley, Mitchell, PENALTY PURDUE holding (Jefferson, Chris) 10 yards to the PURDUE37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
41.2%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
41.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Tyler Warren for 6 yds to the Prdue 31Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+2
41.4%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+12
42.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Devyn Ford for 12 yds to the Prdue 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
41.1%
Sean Clifford run for no gain to the Prdue 17Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+5
41.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the Prdue 12Similar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+12
37.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 12 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 6TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2639% → 48%
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
39.2%
O'Connell, Aidan pass incomplete to Tracy, Tyrone, PENALTY PENNST personal foul (Carter, Abdul) 15 yards to the PURDUE40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PURDUE.Similar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
40.6%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Tyrone Tracy for 8 yds to the Prdue 48Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+9
41.2%
King Doerue run for 9 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
41.6%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Payne DurhamSimilar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+9
41.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 9 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+7
41.5%
King Doerue run for 7 yds to the PnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
42.7%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Elijah CanionSimilar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+15
42.7%
O'Connell, Aidan pass incomplete to Canion, Elijah, PENALTY PENNST pass interference (Dixon, Johnny) 15 yards to the PENNST12, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PURDUE.Similar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
42.7%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 9 yds to the PnSt 3Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+3
48.1%
King Doerue run for 3 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:2355% → 54%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
45.1%
Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the PnSt 36Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+2
45.3%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+14
45.4%
Clifford, Sean pass incomplete to Washington, Parker, PENALTY PURDUE pass interference 14 yards to the PURDUE48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
43.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Brenton StrangeSimilar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
44.5%
Keyvone Lee run for 4 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
44.8%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Mitchell TinsleySimilar
Q2 7:20
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
46.3%
Barney Amor punt for 41 yds, downed at the Prdue 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0647% → 46%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
47.2%
Dylan Downing run for 1 yd to the Prdue 4Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 9
OWN 4
0
47.4%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Broc ThompsonSimilar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 9
OWN 4
0
46.4%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Charlie JonesSimilar
Q2 6:14
4TH & 9
OWN 4
+10
46.0%
Jack Ansell punt for 49 yds , Parker Washington returns for 10 yds to the Prdue 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 43 yds · 4:3055% → 66%
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
45.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the Prdue 39Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+1
44.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the Prdue 38Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+6
46.2%
Sean Clifford run for 6 yds to the Prdue 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
45.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the Prdue 31Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+10
45.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 10 yds to the Prdue 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
45.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 4 yds to the Prdue 17Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+9
45.2%
Clifford, Sean pass incomplete to Wallace III, Harrison, PENALTY PURDUE roughing passer (Johnson, Lawrence) 9 yards to the PURDUE8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
Q2 2:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
45.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 6 yds to the Prdue 2Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
33.9%
Sean Clifford run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 10FUMBLE
8 plays · 57 yds · 1:1439% → 42%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
39.2%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Mershawn Rice for 8 yds to the Prdue 33Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
41.2%
King Doerue run for 8 yds to the Prdue 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+25
41.4%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Mershawn Rice for 25 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
44.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Mershawn RiceSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+9
44.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Payne Durham for 9 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+7
42.1%
TJ Sheffield run for 7 yds to the PnSt 18 TJ Sheffield fumbled, forced by Zakee Wheatley, recovered by PnSt Joey Porter Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11TD
4 plays · 82 yds · 0:2863% → 74%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
37.3%
Clifford, Sean pass incomplete to Tinsley, Mitchell, PENALTY PURDUE pass interference (Taylor, Reese) 15 yards to the PENNST33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
36.3%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Mitchell TinsleySimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+67
25.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 67 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 13TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:4427% → 45%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
27.3%
King Doerue run for 2 yds to the Prdue 27Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
27.4%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 10 yds to the Prdue 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
27.7%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Payne Durham for 11 yds to the Prdue 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
28.8%
Doerue, King rush for 3 yards to the PENNST49, PENALTY PURDUE illegal formation 5 yards to the PURDUE43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+22
27.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 22 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
30.1%
King Doerue run for 7 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 3
OPP 28
0
30.0%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Tyrone TracySimilar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+18
28.7%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Broc Thompson for 18 yds to the PnSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
29.9%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to TJ SheffieldSimilar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 0
OPP 10
+8
31.1%
O'Connell, Aidan pass incomplete to Jones, Charlie, PENALTY PENNST pass interference (Porter Jr., Joey) 8 yards to the PENNST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PURDUE.Similar
Q3 11:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
45.4%
King Doerue run for 2 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:2262% → 61%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
38.5%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the PnSt 20Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+11
38.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 11 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
38.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 15 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
36.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
36.1%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Tyler WarrenSimilar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
36.6%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Mitchell TinsleySimilar
Q3 8:49
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
39.1%
Barney Amor punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0140% → 38%
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
39.8%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 3 yds to the Prdue 23Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
39.8%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Charlie JonesSimilar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
38.4%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Charlie JonesSimilar
Q3 7:48
4TH & 7
OWN 23
-9
37.7%
Jack Ansell punt for 47 yds , Parker Washington returns for a loss of 9 yards to the PnSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:5761% → 61%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
38.9%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Tyler WarrenSimilar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
39.2%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+10
40.7%
Clifford, Sean pass incomplete, PENALTY PURDUE holding (Brown, Jamari) 10 yards to the PENNST31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
36.6%
Keyvone Lee run for 5 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 5
OWN 36
-1
35.5%
Keyvone Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 35Similar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
37.3%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q3 5:51
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
39.2%
Barney Amor punt for 46 yds , Charlie Jones returns for no gain to the Prdue 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 17TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 4:4039% → 65%
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+26
38.8%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Mershawn Rice for 26 yds to the Prdue 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
42.4%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to King Doerue for 2 yds to the Prdue 47Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
42.1%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Mershawn RiceSimilar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+14
39.0%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 14 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
43.1%
King Doerue run for 4 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+5
43.3%
King Doerue run for 5 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
41.3%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Ben FurtneySimilar
Q3 2:42
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+23
39.2%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Payne Durham for 23 yds to the PnSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
43.6%
King Doerue run for no gain to the PnSt 7Similar
Q3 1:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
65.0%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 7 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:5041% → 35%
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
59.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 28Similar
Q3 0:22
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+1
60.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 1 yd to the PnSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 29
-6
62.3%
Sean Clifford sacked by Scotty Humpich for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 23Similar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 17
OWN 23
0
65.2%
Barney Amor punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Charlie Jones at the Prdue 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 2:1065% → 63%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-7
65.0%
Aidan O'Connell sacked by Jonathan Sutherland for a loss of 7 yards to the Prdue 19Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 17
OWN 19
-10
64.5%
O'Connell, Aidan pass complete to Downing, Dylan for 7 yards to the PURDUE26, PENALTY PURDUE illegal block (Durham, Payne) 10 yards to the PURDUE9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 26
OWN 10
+8
64.9%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 8 yds to the Prdue 18Similar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 18
OWN 18
0
63.6%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Charlie JonesSimilar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 18
OWN 18
0
62.7%
Jack Ansell punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Parker Washington at the PnSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 1:2041% → 75%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
59.5%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker WashingtonSimilar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+17
60.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 17 yds to the Prdue 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
58.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 9 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+29
25.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 29 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3537% → 33%
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
36.8%
King Doerue run for 8 yds to the Prdue 26Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 2
OWN 26
-4
39.4%
King Doerue run for a loss of 4 yards to the Prdue 22Similar
Q4 9:23
3RD & 6
OWN 22
0
34.3%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Charlie JonesSimilar
Q4 9:04
4TH & 6
OWN 22
0
32.9%
Jack Ansell punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Parker Washington at the PnSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22INT TD
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:3571% → 40%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
28.8%
Keyvone Lee run for 12 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-72
59.6%
Sean Clifford pass intercepted for a TD Chris Jefferson return for 72 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:5834% → 31%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+11
65.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 11 yds to the PnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
64.9%
Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the PnSt 21Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+2
64.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Tyler Warren for 2 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
67.5%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q4 6:27
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
69.3%
Barney Amor punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Charlie Jones at the Prdue 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 24PUNT
10 plays · 4 yds · 1:3772% → 70%
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
72.1%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Charlie JonesSimilar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
71.7%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Broc ThompsonSimilar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+15
69.7%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 15 yds to the Prdue 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
75.1%
O'Connell, Aidan pass incomplete to Jones, Charlie, PENALTY PENNST pass interference (Dixon, Johnny) 9 yards to the PENNST45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PURDUE.Similar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
76.2%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Tyrone TracySimilar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-15
75.9%
O'Connell, Aidan pass complete to Durham, Payne for 15 yards to the PENNST30, PENALTY PURDUE illegal block (Doerue, King) 15 yards to the PURDUE40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 25
OWN 40
0
72.9%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Mershawn RiceSimilar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 25
OWN 40
-5
71.2%
PURDUE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Prdue 35Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 30
OWN 35
0
70.1%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Payne DurhamSimilar
Q4 4:50
4TH & 30
OWN 35
0
70.1%
Jack Ansell punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Parker Washington at the PnSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2233% → 29%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
66.6%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Nicholas SingletonSimilar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
67.8%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
69.4%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q4 4:28
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
71.1%
Barney Amor punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Charlie Jones at the Prdue 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:0676% → 84%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
76.0%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Broc Thompson for 1 yd to the Prdue 24Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
77.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Mershawn RiceSimilar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+17
75.9%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 17 yds to the Prdue 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
85.0%
King Doerue run for 4 yds to the Prdue 45Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
85.3%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Payne DurhamSimilar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
85.0%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to TJ SheffieldSimilar
Q4 2:22
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
84.2%
Jack Ansell punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 1:2526% → 95%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
73.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 8 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
72.0%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Mitchell TinsleySimilar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+7
74.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 7 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
73.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 8 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+27
68.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 27 yds to the Prdue 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
65.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 5 yds to the Prdue 25Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+15
64.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Tyler Warren for 15 yds to the Prdue 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
4.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 10 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 28END OF GAME
11 plays · 23 yds · 0:4922% → 15%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
22.2%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to TJ SheffieldSimilar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+12
19.8%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 12 yds to the Prdue 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
20.5%
Aidan O'Connell sacked by Johnny Dixon for a loss of 10 yards to the Prdue 21Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 20
OWN 21
+15
15.1%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 15 yds to the Prdue 36Similar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 5
OWN 36
0
15.4%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Payne DurhamSimilar
Q4 0:13
4TH & 5
OWN 36
+6
13.4%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Dylan Downing for 6 yds to the Prdue 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
15.8%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to TJ SheffieldSimilar
Q4 0:04
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
14.9%
Aidan O'Connell pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:57
Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 10 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)
-59.5
TD · Q4 10:44
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 29 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)
-33
TD · Q4 8:29
Sean Clifford pass intercepted for a TD Chris Jefferson return for 72 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK)
+30.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com