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ILL

Illinois 20 at Indiana 23

IU
2022 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2022 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:18 · Hugh Robertson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews Jr. at the Ind 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 132Home team on offense−3.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential−2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Pregame prior+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:43: Connor Bazelak pass complete to D.J. Matthews Jr. for 52 yds for a TD, (Charles Campbell KICK) — IU win probability +6.3 pts (now 58%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 7:01: Caleb Griffin 29 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +5.7 pts (now 49%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:59: Tommy DeVito pass complete to Brian Hightower for 16 yds for a TD, (Caleb Griffin KICK) — ILL win probability +13.5 pts (now 55%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 2:16: Caleb Griffin 48 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +16.8 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:23: Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Charles Campbell KICK) — IU win probability +64.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9ILL made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:00ILL 4th & 13 at ILL 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:03IU 4th & 13 at ILL 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    54.0%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:05IU 4th & 12 at ILL 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    52.5%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:16IU 4th & 11 at ILL 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    51.8%−0.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:51ILL 4th & 16 at ILL 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−1.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:01ILL 4th & 2 at IU 11, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.5%−1.3
    87% to make
    Punt
    35.6%−7.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:07IU 4th & 4 at ILL 25, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.7%−0.5
    66% to make
    Punt
    52.3%−4.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:59ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:22IU 4th & 4 at ILL 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−1.1
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    56.1%−4.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:51IU 4th & 11 at ILL 41, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    51.3%−0.8
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:18ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 46, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−2.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:36IU 4th & 5 at IU 20, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−1.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:51IU 4th & 23 at IU 36, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−7.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:00ILL 4th & 1 at IU 1, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    44.9%−9.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−31.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:25IU 4th & 6 at IU 8, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:16ILL 4th & 9 at IU 30, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−2.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    52.0%−9.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:00ILL 4th & 18 at ILL 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.3%
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.7%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:22ILL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:43IU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:59ILL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:23IU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−2.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:3048% → 48%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
52.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Tip Reiman for 9 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
52.0%
Chase Brown run for 6 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
52.0%
Chase Brown run for 11 yds to the Ind 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
52.0%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Tip ReimanSimilar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
52.0%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Ind 45Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 6
OPP 45
-7
52.1%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Cam Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the Illin 48Similar
Q1 12:00
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
52.5%
Hugh Robertson punt for 12 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ind 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 1:5453% → 53%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
52.6%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Shaun ShiversSimilar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-6
52.6%
Connor Bazelak run for a loss of 6 yards to the Ind 34Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 16
OWN 34
+40
52.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Cam Camper for 40 yds to the Illin 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
53.2%
Josh Henderson run for 2 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+6
53.2%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (6 Yards) to the Illin 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
53.2%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to AJ BarnerSimilar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-3
53.4%
Josh Henderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 21Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 13
OPP 21
0
52.9%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to D.J. Matthews Jr.Similar
Q1 10:03
4TH & 13
OPP 21
+39
53.1%
Charles Campbell 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 3:2347% → 50%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
53.3%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 8
OWN 19
0
53.6%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+10
53.9%
Tommy DeVito run for 10 yds to the Illin 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
53.5%
Chase Brown run for 11 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+32
53.4%
Chase Brown run for 32 yds to the Ind 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
52.9%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Ind 24Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
52.9%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+21
53.2%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Pat Bryant for 21 yds to the Ind 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
52.9%
Chase Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 5Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
50.4%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 5 yds for a TD, (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4PUNT
12 plays · 34 yds · 2:0551% → 51%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
51.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Cam Camper for 10 yds to the Ind 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
51.5%
Shaun Shivers run for 4 yds to the Ind 35Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+8
51.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to D.J. Matthews Jr. for 8 yds to the Ind 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
52.2%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
51.8%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Andison CobySimilar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+14
51.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to D.J. Matthews Jr. for 14 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
52.6%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Andison CobySimilar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-2
52.6%
Shaun Shivers run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 45Similar
Q1 4:12
3RD & 12
OPP 45
0
52.0%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Cam CamperSimilar
Q1 4:05
4TH & 12
OPP 45
0
51.3%
James Evans punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the Illin 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5FUMBLE
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:4848% → 50%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
52.2%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Chase Brown for 6 yds to the Illin 15Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+2
51.8%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+4
52.0%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
51.6%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 22Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+2
51.6%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+11
51.8%
Tommy DeVito run for 11 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
51.0%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q1 0:07
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
50.3%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Luke Ford for 4 yds Luke Ford fumbled, forced by Alfred Bryant, recovered by Ind Cam JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4453% → 51%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
53.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Javon Swinton for 4 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
53.3%
Shaun Shivers run for no gain to the Illin 39Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
53.1%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Emery SimmonsSimilar
Q2 14:22
4TH & 6
OPP 39
-5
52.3%
INDIANA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Illin 44Similar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 11
OPP 44
0
51.2%
James Evans punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the Illin 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 3:0948% → 48%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
51.6%
Reggie Love III run for 8 yds to the Illin 21Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+2
50.9%
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the Illin 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
51.4%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 9 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+3
50.6%
Reggie Love III run for 3 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
50.4%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Tip Reiman for 7 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-1
49.5%
Reggie Love III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 41Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-7
49.6%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Bradley Jennings Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Illin 34Similar
Q2 11:04
4TH & 11
OWN 34
-5
51.7%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 29Similar
Q2 10:51
4TH & 16
OWN 29
0
52.0%
Hugh Robertson punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ind 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 8TD
1 play · 52 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
58.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to D.J. Matthews Jr. for 52 yds for a TD, (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 3:2943% → 49%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
57.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 20 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+22
55.4%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Pat Bryant for 22 yds to the Ind 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
54.1%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Brian Hightower for 7 yds to the Ind 26Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 3
OPP 26
0
55.6%
Chase Brown run for no gain to the Ind 26Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+7
56.5%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 7 yds to the Ind 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
56.0%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Brian HightowerSimilar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+8
55.7%
Chase Brown run for 8 yds to the Ind 11Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 2
OPP 11
0
56.9%
Chase Brown pass incomplete to Pat BryantSimilar
Q2 7:01
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+29
51.2%
Caleb Griffin 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 10FG
7 plays · 50 yds · 1:2857% → 61%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Cam Camper for 5 yds to the Ind 30Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+39
57.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Cam Camper for 39 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
60.1%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
60.1%
Shaun Shivers run for 5 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+1
59.2%
Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd to the Illin 25Similar
Q2 5:07
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+43
60.5%
Charles Campbell 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:0140% → 38%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
60.5%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 11 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
59.7%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
59.0%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
59.9%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Michael MarcheseSimilar
Q2 3:59
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
61.7%
Hugh Robertson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews Jr. at the Ind 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 12FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 3:2360% → 68%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
59.9%
Josh Henderson run for 7 yds to the Ind 28Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+1
61.0%
Josh Henderson run for 1 yd to the Ind 29Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+3
59.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to AJ Barner for 3 yds to the Ind 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
60.4%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Cam CamperSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
59.6%
Shaun Shivers run for 2 yds to the Ind 34Similar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+10
59.1%
Bazelak, Connor pass incomplete, PENALTY ILLINOIS holding 10 yards to the INDIANA44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN INDIANA.Similar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
61.7%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Malachi Holt-BennettSimilar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
60.9%
Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd to the Ind 45Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+24
59.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Emery Simmons for 24 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
64.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Cam Camper for 6 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 4
OPP 25
0
64.3%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to D.J. Matthews Jr.Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
62.8%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Malachi Holt-BennettSimilar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+43
67.9%
Charles Campbell 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
66.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 14INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0167% → 67%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
66.7%
Shaun Shivers run for 4 yds to the Ind 29Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-37
66.8%
Connor Bazelak pass intercepted Kendall Smith return for 22 yds to the INDIANA 49 ILLINOIS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Ind 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15TD
5 plays · 41 yds · 1:2039% → 55%
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
60.7%
Chase Brown run for 9 yds to the Ind 32Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+4
59.1%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Ind 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
59.2%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Brian Hightower for 7 yds to the Ind 21Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+5
59.1%
Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the Ind 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
45.5%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Brian Hightower for 16 yds for a TD, (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 16PUNT
13 plays · 34 yds · 2:5452% → 51%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
51.6%
Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd to the Ind 26Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
51.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Javon Swinton for 4 yds to the Ind 30Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
50.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Brody Foley for 8 yds to the Ind 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
53.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Shaun Shivers for 9 yds to the Ind 47Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+1
55.2%
Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd to the Ind 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
55.0%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to D.J. Matthews Jr.Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
54.6%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Cam CamperSimilar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+12
51.8%
Connor Bazelak run for 12 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
55.8%
Josh Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 41Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 11
OPP 41
0
55.5%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to James BombaSimilar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 11
OPP 41
0
53.1%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Cam CamperSimilar
Q3 9:51
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
50.8%
James Evans punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:2250% → 48%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
50.0%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 22Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+14
50.2%
Chase Brown run for 14 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
48.8%
Chase Brown run for 9 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+2
46.7%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
46.9%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Pat BryantSimilar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-1
47.2%
Chase Hayden run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 46Similar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 11
OWN 46
0
49.4%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Brian HightowerSimilar
Q3 7:18
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
51.7%
Hugh Robertson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews Jr. at the Ind 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2951% → 49%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
51.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to AJ Barner for 6 yds to the Ind 21Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 4
OWN 21
-2
51.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Emery Simmons for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 19Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+1
49.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 1 yd to the Ind 20Similar
Q3 5:36
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
48.9%
James Evans punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the Illin 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19FUMBLE
9 plays · 44 yds · 2:5651% → 56%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
49.4%
Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
48.1%
Tommy DeVito pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+8
49.3%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Hank Beatty for 8 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
46.5%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Tip ReimanSimilar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+8
47.3%
Chase Brown run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 2
50
+3
46.0%
Tommy DeVito run for 3 yds to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+27
45.3%
Chase Brown run for 27 yds to the Ind 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
43.3%
Chase Brown run for no gain to the Ind 20Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+8
43.7%
Tommy DeVito run for a loss of 7 yards to the Ind 35 Tommy DeVito fumbled, recovered by Ind , return for 8 yds to the Ind 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 2:1952% → 46%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
51.8%
Shaun Shivers run for 4 yds to the Ind 39Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
54.0%
Shaun Shivers run for 2 yds to the Ind 41Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+8
52.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to AJ Barner for 8 yds to the Ind 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
54.5%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Cam CamperSimilar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
53.6%
Josh Henderson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 9
50
-14
50.9%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Jer'Zhan Newton for a loss of 14 yards to the Ind 36Similar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 23
OWN 36
+7
46.4%
James Evans punt for 37 yds , Isaiah Williams returns for 7 yds to the Illin 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 62 yds · 4:4054% → 56%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
46.5%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 15 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
43.6%
Chase Brown run for 17 yds to the Ind 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
41.5%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 16 yds to the Ind 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
40.9%
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the Ind 16Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 8
OPP 16
-5
40.6%
Reggie Love III run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ind 21Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 13
OPP 21
+15
44.1%
INDIANA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tiawan Mullen) to the Ind 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
40.5%
Tommy DeVito run for 1 yd to the Ind 5Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
40.1%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Ind 2Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
40.9%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Ind 1Similar
Q4 10:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
43.6%
Chase Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ind 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2048% → 44%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
47.7%
Shaun Shivers run for 3 yds to the Ind 7Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 7
OWN 7
0
47.4%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to James BombaSimilar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 7
OWN 7
+1
45.3%
Connor Bazelak run for 1 yd to the Ind 8Similar
Q4 8:25
4TH & 6
OWN 8
0
43.6%
James Evans punt for 42 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 2:1361% → 63%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
38.6%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Ind 46 Chase Brown fumbled, forced by Tiawan Mullen, recovered by Illin Chase BrownSimilar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
38.6%
Chase Brown run for no gain to the Ind 46Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+11
38.0%
Tommy DeVito run for 11 yds to the Ind 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
34.5%
Chase Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ind 38Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 13
OPP 38
0
37.2%
Tommy DeVito pass intercepted Josh Sanguinetti return for no gain to the Ind 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 24FUMBLE
6 plays · 37 yds · 0:5447% → 48%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
46.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Cam Camper for 8 yds to the Ind 16Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+1
47.3%
Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd to the Ind 17Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+3
44.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Cam Camper for 3 yds to the Ind 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
47.7%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Ind 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
48.6%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Shaun ShiversSimilar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+10
48.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Cam Camper for 10 yds Cam Camper fumbled, forced by Tahveon Nicholson, recovered by Illin Isaac DarkangeloSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 25FG
11 plays · 15 yds · 2:0465% → 84%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
34.9%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Ind 41Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
34.7%
Tommy DeVito pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+10
35.6%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 10 yds to the Ind 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
31.3%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Ind 27Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 6
OPP 27
-10
27.5%
DeVito, Tommy pass complete to Williams, Isaiah for no gain to the INDIANA27, PENALTY ILLINOIS holding (Reiman, Tip) 10 yards to the INDIANA37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 16
OPP 37
+4
31.1%
Tommy DeVito run for 4 yds to the Ind 33Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 12
OPP 33
+3
31.1%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 3 yds to the Ind 30Similar
Q4 2:16
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+48
15.6%
Caleb Griffin 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 26TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 1:3721% → 95%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
21.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to D.J. Matthews Jr. for 6 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
23.1%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to D.J. Matthews Jr.Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+12
21.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to D.J. Matthews Jr. for 12 yds to the Ind 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
24.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to D.J. Matthews Jr. for 3 yds to the Ind 46Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+17
24.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Cam Camper for 17 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
27.7%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Cam CamperSimilar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+14
25.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to D.J. Matthews Jr. for 14 yds to the Illin 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
32.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Cam Camper for 9 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+9
32.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to D.J. Matthews Jr. for 9 yds to the Illin 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
33.8%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Cam CamperSimilar
Q4 0:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
30.6%
Connor Bazelak run for 4 yds to the Illin 1Similar
Q4 0:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.1%
Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 27FUMBLE
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:1822% → 10%
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
78.4%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 19 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
72.9%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q4 0:07
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-8
74.6%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Beau Robbins for a loss of 8 yards to the Illin 36Similar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 18
OWN 36
0
84.5%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 18
OWN 36
+13
90.1%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Brian Hightower for 13 yds Brian Hightower fumbled, recovered by Ind Jaylin WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:23
Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Charles Campbell KICK)
+64.5
FG · Q4 2:16
Caleb Griffin 48 yd FG GOOD
-16.8
TD · Q3 12:59
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Brian Hightower for 16 yds for a TD, (Caleb Griffin KICK)
-13.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com