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NEB

Nebraska 28 at Northwestern 31

NU
2022 · Week 1 · Aug 27, 2022 · Aviva Stadium
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadNEB aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreNEB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:46 · Brian Buschini punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Nwest 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 172Pregame prior−5.3Home team on offense+4.0Garbage-time factor+0.4Score differential+1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:25: Donny Navarro III 6 Yd pass from Ryan Hilinski (Adam Stage Kick) — NU win probability +9.4 pts (now 45%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:37: Anthony Grant 3 Yd Run (Timmy Bleekrode Kick) — NEB win probability +12.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:09: Anthony Grant 46 Yd Run (Timmy Bleekrode Kick) — NEB win probability +11.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:53: Cam Porter 3 Yd Run (Adam Stage Kick) — NU win probability +16.3 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  5. TD · Q4 11:34: Evan Hull run for 4 yds for a TD, (Adam Stage KICK) — NU win probability +27.5 pts (now 68%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9NEB made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 8:07NU 4th & 8 at NEB 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:41NEB 4th & 6 at NEB 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:13NU 4th & 8 at NEB 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    21.8%−2.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:17NU 4th & 10 at NEB 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:40NEB 4th & 1 at NEB 32, up 4
    Close callPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:45NU 4th & 1 at NU 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.2%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:01NU 4th & 5 at NU 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:41NEB 4th & 7 at NEB 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−1.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:30NU 4th & 6 at NU 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−1.0
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:47NEB 4th & 2 at NEB 43, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:15NU 4th & 5 at NEB 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    23.0%−11.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:46NEB 4th & 17 at NEB 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−4.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:10NU 4th & 2 at NU 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−0.2
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:30NEB 4th & 6 at NEB 47, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:12NU 4th & 7 at NEB 41, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    80.9%−2.7
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%−3.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NEB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:41NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:59NEB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:58NU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:25NU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:37NEB Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:09NEB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:53NU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:34NU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEBDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:0479% → 79%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
21.2%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Trey Palmer for 9 yds to the Neb 34Similar
Q1 14:41
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
21.2%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
21.4%
Anthony Grant run for 2 yds to the Neb 36Similar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+15
21.5%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Marcus Washington for 15 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
21.5%
Anthony Grant run for 4 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+4
21.7%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Trey Palmer for 4 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+9
21.9%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Travis Vokolek for 9 yds to the Nwest 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
21.4%
Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda 32 Yd pass from Casey Thompson (Timmy Bleekrode Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 4:2722% → 23%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.6%
Evan Hull run for no gain to the Nwest 25Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
21.8%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 15 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
22.1%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+6
22.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
50
+3
22.5%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Neb 47Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-5
22.7%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 48Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 12
OWN 48
0
22.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for no gain to the Nwest 48Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 12
OWN 48
+4
22.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 4 yds to the Neb 48Similar
Q1 8:07
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
22.6%
Luke Akers punt for 47 yds, downed at the Neb 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1478% → 77%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
22.5%
Jaquez Yant run for 2 yds to the Neb 3Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
22.6%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+2
22.9%
Jaquez Yant run for 2 yds to the Neb 5Similar
Q1 6:41
4TH & 6
OWN 5
0
23.2%
Brian Buschini punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Nwest 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4FG
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:5824% → 26%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
23.6%
Cam Porter run for no gain to the Nwest 48Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
23.6%
Cam Porter run for 4 yds to the Neb 48Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+14
24.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 14 yds to the Neb 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
24.6%
Andrew Clair run for 6 yds to the Neb 28Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+9
24.8%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 9 yds to the Neb 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
24.9%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 21Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+2
25.0%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the Neb 19Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+2
24.8%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the Neb 17Similar
Q1 2:13
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+35
26.3%
Adam Stage 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 5TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 4:5674% → 79%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
25.9%
Anthony Grant run for 1 yd to the Neb 21Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+8
26.1%
Anthony Grant run for 8 yds to the Neb 29Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
26.2%
Anthony Grant run for 2 yds to the Neb 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
26.1%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Alante Brown for 15 yds to the Neb 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
25.7%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Trey PalmerSimilar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+16
25.9%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Anthony Grant for 16 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
25.6%
Anthony Grant run for 2 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+14
25.7%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Travis Vokolek for 14 yds to the Nwest 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
25.5%
Anthony Grant run for 1 yd to the Nwest 21Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+8
25.6%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Trey Palmer for 8 yds to the Nwest 13Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+10
26.1%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Trey Palmer for 10 yds to the Nwest 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
25.8%
Anthony Grant run for 1 yd to the Nwest 2Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
25.6%
Jaquez Yant run for 1 yd to the Nwest 1Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 0
OPP 1
0
26.0%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, 12 Men on the Field ( Yards) to the Nwest 1Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
21.0%
Casey Thompson 1 Yd Run (Timmy Bleekrode Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:5322% → 30%
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
22.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 23 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
23.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+11
22.9%
Evan Hull run for 11 yds to the Neb 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
30.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Raymond Niro III for 41 yds for a TD, (Adam Stage KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 7FUMBLE
6 plays · 72 yds · 0:5872% → 74%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+27
28.0%
Trey Palmer run for 12 yds to the Neb 29 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Neb 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
27.1%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
27.4%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+21
28.1%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Travis Vokolek for 21 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+24
26.4%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 24 yds Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda fumbled, recovered by Nwest Greyson MetzSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 42 yds · 3:2328% → 29%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
28.4%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Nwest 12Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+15
28.4%
Evan Hull run for 15 yds to the Nwest 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
29.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 2 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+24
28.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 24 yds to the Neb 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
30.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-2
30.7%
Cam Porter run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 49Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+2
29.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Jacob Gill for 2 yds to the Neb 47Similar
Q2 6:17
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
28.6%
Luke Akers punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Oliver Martin at the Neb 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:1571% → 70%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
29.2%
Ajay Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 5Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 11
OWN 5
+9
29.5%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Alante Brown for 9 yds to the Neb 14Similar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+9
30.0%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Travis Vokolek for 9 yds to the Neb 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
29.2%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+8
29.3%
Anthony Grant run for 8 yds to the Neb 31Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+1
29.1%
Anthony Grant run for 1 yd to the Neb 32Similar
Q2 3:40
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
30.2%
Brian Buschini punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Nwest 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10TD
17 plays · 82 yds · 2:4530% → 45%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
30.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 9 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 1
OWN 27
0
31.5%
Evan Hull run for no gain to the Nwest 27Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+2
29.7%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
30.4%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Bryce KirtzSimilar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+6
30.2%
Evan Hull run for 6 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+3
30.8%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 3 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 1
OWN 38
+2
31.9%
Ryan Hilinski run for 2 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
33.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 5 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+12
33.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 12 yds to the Neb 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+34
34.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Anthony Tyus III for 34 yds to the Neb 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 0
OPP 9
-5
38.6%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Neb 14Similar
Q2 0:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+5
36.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Cam Porter for 5 yds to the Neb 9Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
36.9%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 3 yds to the Neb 6Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
45.4%
Donny Navarro III 6 Yd pass from Ryan Hilinski (Adam Stage Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 11DOWNS
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:1856% → 58%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
43.8%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Trey Palmer for 16 yds to the Neb 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
41.8%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Trey Palmer for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 3
50
0
40.0%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 3
50
+12
40.9%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Marcus Washington for 12 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+56
42.4%
Brendan Franke 56 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 1:5442% → 44%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
42.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Thomas GordonSimilar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+5
43.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 5 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q3 13:58
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+6
43.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 6 yds to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
44.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:47
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
44.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Thomas GordonSimilar
Q3 13:47
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+5
43.0%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Nwest 39Similar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
45.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for no gain to the Nwest 39Similar
Q3 13:01
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
43.7%
Luke Akers punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Trey Palmer at the Neb 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 13TD
9 plays · 88 yds · 3:1556% → 72%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
43.8%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Travis Vokolek for 10 yds to the Neb 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
43.6%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+2
44.0%
Anthony Grant run for 2 yds to the Neb 24Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+58
45.2%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 58 yds to the Nwest 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
39.3%
Anthony Grant run for 3 yds to the Nwest 15Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 7
OPP 15
-9
40.0%
Casey Thompson sacked by Ryan Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the Nwest 24Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 16
OPP 24
+15
43.5%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Nwest 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
40.3%
Anthony Grant run for 6 yds to the Nwest 3Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
27.9%
Anthony Grant 3 Yd Run (Timmy Bleekrode Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14FUMBLE
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
32.9%
Cam Porter run for 21 yds to the Nwest 46 Cam Porter fumbled, recovered by Neb Caleb TannorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 15TD
2 plays · 46 yds · 0:1071% → 82%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
29.2%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+46
17.9%
Anthony Grant 46 Yd Run (Timmy Bleekrode Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 44 yds · 0:5721% → 39%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
21.2%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Neb 41Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+16
21.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 16 yds to the Neb 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
22.4%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+22
22.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 22 yds to the Neb 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
39.1%
Cam Porter 3 Yd Run (Adam Stage Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5469% → 68%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
31.4%
Anthony Grant run for 3 yds to the Neb 28Similar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
29.4%
Anthony Grant run for no gain to the Neb 28Similar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
31.0%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:41
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
32.5%
Brian Buschini punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Nwest 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0232% → 30%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
32.1%
Evan Hull run for 6 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+2
34.3%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+1
33.8%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Nwest 33Similar
Q3 4:43
4TH & 1
OWN 33
-5
31.0%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 28Similar
Q3 4:30
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
29.7%
Luke Akers punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda at the Neb 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3773% → 72%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
27.4%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Trey PalmerSimilar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
28.0%
Anthony Grant run for 5 yds to the Neb 40Similar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+3
26.3%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Trey Palmer for 3 yds to the Neb 43Similar
Q3 2:47
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
27.8%
Brian Buschini punt for 46 yds, downed at the Nwest 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20MISSED FG
12 plays · 71 yds · 3:1931% → 35%
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
31.1%
Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the Nwest 14Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+9
31.2%
Cam Porter run for 9 yds to the Nwest 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
31.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
31.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:32
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+39
30.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 39 yds to the Neb 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
36.9%
Cam Porter run for 6 yds to the Neb 32Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+9
38.7%
Cam Porter run for 9 yds to the Neb 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
38.8%
Cam Porter run for 7 yds to the Neb 16Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+1
38.9%
Ryan Hilinski run for 1 yd to the Neb 15Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 2
OPP 15
-5
36.8%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Neb 20Similar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+2
37.0%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Neb 18Similar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+36
34.5%
Adam Stage 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 21INT
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:2672% → 75%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
28.3%
Ajay Allen run for 8 yds to the Neb 28Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+10
26.4%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Brody Belt for 10 yds to the Neb 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
25.9%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Brody Belt for 19 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
24.7%
Ajay Allen run for 1 yd to the Nwest 42Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 9
OPP 42
0
24.9%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:24
3RD & 9
OPP 42
-27
25.1%
Casey Thompson pass intercepted Cameron Mitchell return for 27 yds to the Neb 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22TD
6 plays · 42 yds · 0:4639% → 68%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
38.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
38.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+10
36.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 10 yds to the Neb 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
40.7%
Evan Hull run for 12 yds to the Neb 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+16
40.7%
Evan Hull run for 16 yds to the Neb 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
68.3%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds for a TD, (Adam Stage KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:3041% → 37%
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
59.5%
Logan Smothers run for 7 yds to the Neb 32 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Neb 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
54.0%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
55.9%
Anthony Grant run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 7
50
-10
56.0%
Casey Thompson sacked by Coco Azema for a loss of 10 yards to the Neb 40Similar
Q4 9:46
4TH & 17
OWN 40
0
63.0%
Brian Buschini punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Nwest 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2065% → 63%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
65.1%
Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+4
65.4%
Cam Porter run for 4 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+1
64.5%
Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the Nwest 23Similar
Q4 8:10
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
63.1%
Luke Akers punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda at the Neb 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1442% → 37%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
57.6%
Trey Palmer run for a loss of 4 yards to the Neb 39Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 14
OWN 39
0
61.9%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 14
OWN 39
+8
62.0%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Alante Brown for 8 yds to the Neb 47Similar
Q4 6:30
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
62.6%
Brian Buschini punt for 47 yds, downed at the Nwest 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26PUNT
13 plays · 53 yds · 3:5868% → 87%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
67.7%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Nwest 8Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+6
67.8%
Evan Hull run for 6 yds to the Nwest 14Similar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+21
69.0%
Evan Hull run for 21 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
75.1%
Cam Porter run for 11 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
80.3%
Cam Porter run for 9 yds to the Neb 45Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+1
85.6%
Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the Neb 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
86.7%
Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the Neb 43Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+1
86.8%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Neb 42Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+1
88.3%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Neb 41Similar
Q4 2:12
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
86.9%
Luke Akers punt for 37 yds, downed at the Neb 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 27INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:4011% → 16%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
88.7%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+11
86.0%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Trey Palmer for 11 yds to the Neb 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
85.0%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 6 yds to the Neb 21Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 4
OWN 21
0
84.5%
Casey Thompson pass intercepted Xander Mueller return for no gain to the Neb 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:5094% → 95%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-3
93.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Neb 30Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 13
OPP 30
-2
94.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 32Similar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 15
OPP 32
-3
95.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Neb 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:34
Evan Hull run for 4 yds for a TD, (Adam Stage KICK)
+27.5
TD · Q3 7:53
Cam Porter 3 Yd Run (Adam Stage Kick)
+16.3
TD · Q3 9:37
Anthony Grant 3 Yd Run (Timmy Bleekrode Kick)
-12.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com