Try the model
LIB

Liberty 29 at Southern Miss 27

USM
2022 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2022 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OTOT2OTFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:53 · Mason Hunt punt for 47 yds , Demario Douglas returns for 5 yds to the Liber 36 LIBERTY Penalty, Offensive Holding (Daijahn Anthony) to the Liber 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseTime remainingScore differentialOffense timeoutsDefense timeoutsScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OTOT2OTPlay 62Home team on offense+0.6Time remaining+0.0Score differential−0.6Offense timeouts+0.0Defense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 14:44: Eric Scott Jr. 22 Yd Interception Return (Briggs Bourgeois Kick) — USM win probability +24.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:30: Kaidon Salter pass complete to Demario Douglas for 10 yds for a TD, (Nick Brown KICK) — LIB win probability +29.7 pts (now 59%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 1:54: Frank Gore Jr. 5 Yd Run (Briggs Bourgeois Kick) — USM win probability +35.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:36: Kaidon Salter pass complete to Demario Douglas for 23 yds for a TD, (Nick Brown KICK) — LIB win probability +44.8 pts (now 62%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  5. FG · OT2 0:00: Briggs Bourgeois 53 Yd Field Goal — USM win probability +32.8 pts (now 54%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 5 of 8LIB made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 12:09USM 4th & 4 at USM 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:09USM 4th & 4 at USM 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:58LIB 4th & 1 at LIB 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:05USM 4th & 1 at LIB 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    44.2%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    43.1%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:18LIB 4th & 1 at LIB 26, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:54USM 4th & 1 at LIB 22, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.7%−0.7
    72% to make
    Punt
    44.6%−2.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:54LIB 4th & 2 at USM 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    51.7%−0.9
    40% to make
    Punt
    51.6%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:07LIB 4th & 24 at USM 36, down 3
    Close callPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−1.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    49.3%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:54LIB 4th & 10 at USM 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    43.6%−5.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:53USM 4th & 4 at USM 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−0.8
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:58LIB 4th & 3 at LIB 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:50LIB 4th & 17 at LIB 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−3.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:50LIB 4th & 17 at LIB 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−3.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:07LIB 4th & 1 at LIB 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    50.3%−1.8
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:07LIB 4th & 1 at LIB 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    50.3%−1.8
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:32USM 4th & 10 at USM 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−1.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%
    average punt
  17. Q3 5:51LIB 4th & 10 at LIB 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−3.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:20USM 4th & 25 at LIB 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−6.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    52.3%−2.0
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:20USM 4th & 25 at LIB 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−6.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    52.3%−2.0
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3LIB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 1:51LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:27USM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:44USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:30LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:54USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−1.7
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:36LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.9%−5.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:5149% → 50%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
49.1%
Ty Keyes run for 4 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
49.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
49.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 7 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
49.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+3
49.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
49.1%
Ty Keyes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:09
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
49.7%
Mason Hunt punt for 33 ydsSimilar
Q1 12:09
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
49.7%
Mason Hunt punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Demario Douglas at the Liber 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 2DOWNS
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:1150% → 50%
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
49.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Caleb Snead for 11 yds to the Liber 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
49.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Dae Dae Hunter for 2 yds to the Liber 33Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+4
49.6%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 4 yds to the Liber 37Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+3
49.6%
Charlie Brewer run for 3 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 1
OWN 40
-1
50.0%
Charlie Brewer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3DOWNS
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:5351% → 51%
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+35
50.8%
Ty Keyes pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 35 yds to the Liber 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
50.9%
Janari Dean run for 3 yds to the Liber 1Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
50.9%
Ty Keyes run for no gain to the Liber 1Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
50.7%
Ty Keyes run for no gain to the Liber 1Similar
Q1 8:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
50.8%
Antavious Willis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 5 Antavious Willis fumbled, recovered by Liber Durrell JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:4750% → 49%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
50.2%
Shedro Louis run for 2 yds to the Liber 7Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+5
50.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Noah Frith for 5 yds to the Liber 12Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 3
OWN 12
-5
50.6%
LIBERTY Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Dae Dae Hunter) to the Liber 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
50.2%
Shedro Louis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 15Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 12
OWN 15
0
50.3%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 12
OWN 15
+11
50.6%
Charlie Brewer run for 11 yds to the Liber 26Similar
Q1 5:18
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
51.2%
Aidan Alves punt for 59 yds, downed at the SoMis 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5FG
13 plays · 63 yds · 5:2451% → 54%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
50.7%
Ty Keyes run for 3 yds to the SoMis 18Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+25
50.7%
Ty Keyes pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 25 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
51.6%
Ty Keyes pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 6 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+6
51.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the Liber 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
51.9%
Ty Keyes run for 7 yds to the Liber 38Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+1
51.9%
Ty Keyes run for 1 yd to the Liber 37Similar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+1
51.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the Liber 36Similar
Q1 5:18
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+5
51.2%
LIBERTY Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jerome Jolly Jr.) to the Liber 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
52.1%
Ty Keyes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
52.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+5
51.7%
LIBERTY Penalty, False Start (5 Yards) to the Liber 34Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 34
+12
52.4%
Ty Keyes run for 12 yds to the Liber 22Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+39
53.5%
Briggs Bourgeois 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 6PUNT
15 plays · 39 yds · 5:4747% → 45%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.3%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
53.4%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 6 yds to the Liber 31Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
53.4%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Demario Douglas for 9 yds to the Liber 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
52.3%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
52.6%
Dae Dae Hunter run for no gain to the Liber 40Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+15
53.2%
Johnathan Bennett run for 15 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
51.7%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 7 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+2
51.5%
Shedro Louis run for 2 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 1
OPP 36
-1
51.6%
Shedro Louis run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 37Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+15
52.7%
Johnathan Bennett run for 15 yds to the SoMis 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-15
51.0%
BENNETT, Johnathan pass up the middle incomplete intended for SNEAD, Caleb thrown to the USM0. PENALTY LU Face mask on LOUIS, Shedro enforced 15 yards from the USM22 to the USM37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 25
OPP 37
-1
52.2%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Jaivian Lofton for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 38Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 26
OPP 38
-13
52.4%
Johnathan Bennett sacked for a loss of 13 yards to the Liber 49Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 39
OWN 49
+15
53.1%
Shedro Louis run for 15 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 24
OPP 36
0
55.2%
Aidan Alves punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
54.6%
Ty Keyes pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 8FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0649% → 50%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
51.4%
Johnathan Bennett run for 5 yds to the SoMis 9Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 5
OPP 9
-5
51.4%
Johnathan Bennett run for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 14Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
52.6%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:54
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+32
49.6%
Nick Brown 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:0153% → 52%
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
53.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 8 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
54.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 34Similar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-3
53.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 31Similar
Q2 5:53
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+5
52.2%
Mason Hunt punt for 47 yds , Demario Douglas returns for 5 yds to the Liber 36 LIBERTY Penalty, Offensive Holding (Daijahn Anthony) to the Liber 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:5549% → 49%
Q2 5:53
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+12
50.6%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to CJ Yarbrough for 12 yds to the Liber 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
50.0%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 2 yds to the Liber 33Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-1
49.8%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to CJ Yarbrough for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 32Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+6
51.2%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 6 yds to the Liber 38Similar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
50.4%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 2 yds to the Liber 19Similar
Q2 3:58
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
51.1%
Aidan Alves punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the SoMis 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11INT
4 plays · 24 yds · 1:5254% → 55%
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
53.8%
Janari Dean run for no gain to the SoMis 18Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+23
53.7%
Ty Keyes pass complete to Brandon Hayes for 23 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
55.6%
Janari Dean run for 1 yd to the SoMis 42Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
55.2%
Ty Keyes pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 12TD
3 plays · 28 yds · 0:1554% → 66%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
46.4%
BENNETT, Johnathan pass to the left incomplete intended for YARBROUGH, CJ thrown to the USM0. PENALTY USM Holding on KNIGHT, Tylan enforced 10 yards from the USM28 to the USM18 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
34.2%
Johnathan Bennett run for 18 yds for a TD, (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
34.2%
BENNETT, Johnathan pass to the left incomplete intended for YARBROUGH, CJ thrown to the USM0. PENALTY USM Holding on KNIGHT, Tylan enforced 10 yards from the USM28 to the USM18 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13INT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:5340% → 42%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
39.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 7 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+3
41.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
40.4%
KEYES, Ty pass to the left incomplete intended for GORE, Frank thrown to the USM34. PENALTY LU Targeting on RAHIMI, Robert enforced 15 yards from the USM31 to the USM46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
41.9%
Trey Lowe pass interceptedSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 16
OWN 13
-5
37.6%
BENNETT, Johnathan pass to the right incomplete intended for DOUGLAS, Demario broken up by SCOTT, Eric at the USM48. PENALTY USM Offsides on BROOKS, Natrone enforced 5 yards from the LU 13 to the LU 18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
41.9%
Trey Lowe pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14END OF HALF
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:5363% → 65%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-7
37.4%
HUNTER, Dae Dae rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the LU 23 (HARRELL, Camron). PENALTY LU Holding on SCHLITTLER, Brendan enforced 7 yards from the LU 19 to the LU 12 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 11
OWN 18
+4
36.5%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 4 yds to the Liber 22Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+20
36.3%
Shedro Louis run for 20 yds to the Liber 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
34.8%
Shedro Louis run for 3 yds to the Liber 45Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+2
34.8%
Shedro Louis run for 2 yds to the Liber 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 2:0264% → 61%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
36.2%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 4 yds to the Liber 36Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+4
35.6%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Michael Bollinger for 4 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 2
OWN 40
-5
35.4%
LIBERTY Penalty, False Start (Jerome Jolly Jr.) to the Liber 35Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 7
OWN 35
-10
36.8%
Johnathan Bennett sacked by Dominic Quewon for a loss of 10 yards to the Liber 25Similar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 17
OWN 25
0
38.7%
Aidan Alves punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the SoMis 36Similar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 17
OWN 25
0
38.7%
Aidan Alves punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the SoMis 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 2:2339% → 58%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
38.9%
run for 8 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+2
41.0%
run for 2 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
40.6%
run for 6 yds to the Liber 48Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+2
41.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the Liber 46Similar
Q3 10:27
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+46
57.7%
Frank Gore Jr. 46 Yd Run (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 17DOWNS
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:2049% → 48%
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
51.4%
LIBERTY Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jerome Jolly Jr.) to the Liber 20Similar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
51.7%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+6
52.0%
Johnathan Bennett run for 6 yds to the Liber 26Similar
Q3 10:27
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
52.6%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Noah Frith for 8 yds to the Liber 34Similar
Q3 9:07
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
52.4%
Johnathan Bennett pass interceptedSimilar
Q3 9:07
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
52.4%
Johnathan Bennett pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3558% → 53%
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
58.0%
run for 1 yd to the SoMis 47Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-1
57.7%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 46Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
54.8%
Frank Gore Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:32
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
53.1%
Mason Hunt punt for 51 yds, downed at the Liber 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:4148% → 46%
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
51.8%
Johnathan Bennett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 2Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 11
OWN 2
0
52.2%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:32
3RD & 11
OWN 2
+13
53.4%
Johnathan Bennett run for 13 yds to the Liber 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
51.4%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
51.9%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:32
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
53.0%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:51
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
54.5%
punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the SoMis 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20FUMBLE
8 plays · 52 yds · 4:0159% → 61%
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+28
58.5%
run for 28 yds to the Liber 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
60.5%
run for 5 yds to the Liber 21Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+5
60.4%
run for 5 yds to the Liber 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
60.4%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 18Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+5
60.6%
run for 5 yds to the Liber 13Similar
Q3 2:33
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+8
59.1%
run for 8 yds to the Liber 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
60.9%
run for 3 yds to the Liber 2 Dajon Richard fumbled, recovered by Liber Javon ScruggsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 21INT TD
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:0649% → 24%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
51.2%
Shedro Louis run for 5 yds to the Liber 7Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+3
51.8%
Johnathan Bennett run for 3 yds to the Liber 10Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 2
OWN 10
+6
52.7%
Shedro Louis run for 6 yds to the Liber 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
50.5%
Shedro Louis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 15
0
51.4%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 11
OWN 15
-22
75.8%
Eric Scott Jr. 22 Yd Interception Return (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 22TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 3:0726% → 59%
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
74.1%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+2
74.5%
Kaidon Salter run for 2 yds to the Liber 23Similar
Q4 14:37
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+15
75.5%
Kaidon Salter run for 15 yds to the Liber 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
72.2%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+14
72.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Caleb Snead for 14 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+28
71.4%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 28 yds to the SoMis 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
68.5%
Demario Douglas run for 3 yds to the SoMis 17Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+4
68.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Caleb Snead for 4 yds to the SoMis 13Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+3
70.6%
Kaidon Salter run for 3 yds to the SoMis 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
40.9%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Demario Douglas for 10 yds for a TD, (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 3:1053% → 51%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
53.3%
Direct snap to GORE, Frank rush to the left for a gain of 13 yards to the USM48 (REESE, Quinton). PENALTY USM Holding on BAKER, Luke enforced 10 yards from the USM35 to the USM25 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+48
52.2%
Frank Gore Jr. pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 48 yds to the Liber 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
59.8%
LIBERTY Penalty, False Start (5 Yards) to the Liber 32Similar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 15
OPP 32
+1
58.6%
run for 1 yd to the Liber 31Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 14
OPP 31
-6
57.0%
Antavious Willis sacked by Stephen Sings V for a loss of 6 yards to the Liber 37Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 20
OPP 37
+5
54.0%
LIBERTY Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the Liber 42Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 25
OPP 42
0
53.6%
Frank Gore Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:20
4TH & 25
OPP 42
0
50.9%
Mason Hunt punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Demario Douglas at the Liber 8Similar
Q4 8:20
4TH & 25
OPP 42
0
50.9%
Mason Hunt punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Demario Douglas at the Liber 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 24INT
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:2350% → 61%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
50.3%
Shedro Louis run for 2 yds to the Liber 10Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 8
OWN 10
-1
50.4%
Kaidon Salter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 9Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+13
52.6%
Kaidon Salter run for 13 yds to the Liber 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
49.5%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+15
50.1%
Kaidon Salter run for 15 yds to the Liber 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
47.4%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Malik Shorts) to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
38.6%
Kaidon Salter pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 4:0353% → 97%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
52.9%
run for 6 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+24
53.6%
run for 9 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST down LIBERTY Penalty, Clipping (Javon Scruggs) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
50
-1
59.1%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 49Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+4
56.5%
run for 4 yds to the Liber 47Similar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+15
57.4%
GORE, Frank pass to the right incomplete intended for BROWNLEE, Jason thrown to the LU 31. PENALTY LU Pass Interference on SINGLETON, Kobe enforced 15 yards to the LU 32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
61.1%
run for no gain to the Liber 32Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+20
60.9%
run for 20 yds to the Liber 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
61.1%
run for 7 yds to the Liber 5Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+5
97.0%
Frank Gore Jr. 5 Yd Run (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 26TD
5 plays · 81 yds · 1:1113% → 62%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+51
86.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Demario Douglas for 51 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
77.8%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-10
78.2%
SALTER, Kaidon pass to the right complete for -1 yard to HUNTER, Dae Dae caught at the USM36 and advanced to the USM31 (QUEWON, Dominic). PENALTY LU Holding on HENDERSON, Austin enforced 10 yards from the USM30 to the USM40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 20
OPP 40
+17
82.9%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Jerome Jackson for 17 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+23
38.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Demario Douglas for 23 yds for a TD, (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:3256% → 60%
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
55.9%
run for 7 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-1
60.4%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 28MISSED FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0066% → 60%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
65.6%
run for 2 yds to the Liber 23Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+3
65.6%
run for 3 yds to the Liber 20Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+3
63.3%
run for 3 yds to the Liber 17Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+34
60.0%
Briggs Bourgeois 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 29MISSED FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0059% → 56%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
41.1%
Shedro Louis run for 2 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-3
41.1%
Kaidon Salter run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 26Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+36
50.0%
Nick Brown 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+8
44.3%
Kaidon Salter run for 8 yds to the SoMis 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 30FG
6 plays · 17 yds · 15:0059% → 71%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
41.1%
Kaidon Salter run for 13 yds to the SoMis 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
41.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Demario Douglas for 4 yds to the SoMis 8Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+5
41.1%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 5 yds to the SoMis 3Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 3
0
43.2%
Dae Dae Hunter run for no gain to the SoMis 3Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 3
-5
48.4%
LIBERTY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 8Similar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+26
28.6%
Nick Brown 26 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 31FG
5 plays · -11 yds · 15:0042% → 54%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
42.2%
GORE, Frank pass to the right incomplete intended for BROWNLEE, Jason thrown to the LU 2. PENALTY USM Pass Interference on BROWNLEE, Jason enforced 15 yards to the LU 40 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 25
OPP 40
0
23.4%
Frank Gore Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 25
OPP 40
-1
23.1%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 41Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 26
OPP 41
+5
21.2%
run for 5 yds to the Liber 36Similar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 21
OPP 36
+53
54.0%
Briggs Bourgeois 53 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 32END OF GAME
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
59.6%
Antavious Willis pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 2 yds to the Liber 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-59.6
TD · Q4 0:36
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Demario Douglas for 23 yds for a TD, (Nick Brown KICK)
-44.8
TD · Q4 1:54
Frank Gore Jr. 5 Yd Run (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)
+35.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com