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LIB

Liberty 33 at UConn 36

CONN
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · [NH] Kneel down by UCO at LIB50 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:16: Robert Burns run for 1 yd for a TD, (Noe Ruelas KICK) — CONN win probability +18.9 pts (now 51%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:35: Malik Caper run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Brown KICK) — LIB win probability +14.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 14:52: Victor Rosa run for 27 yds for a TD, (Noe Ruelas KICK) — CONN win probability +20.9 pts (now 57%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:39: Demario Douglas 75 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — LIB win probability +30.8 pts (now 74%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:43: Zion Turner pass complete to Kevens Clercius for 30 yds for a TD, (Zion Turner pass to Keelan Marion for Two-Point Conversion) — CONN win probability +36.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 4 of 6LIB made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 7:31LIB 4th & 4 at CONN 20, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.2%−<0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    73.3%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:37CONN 4th & 4 at LIB 48, up 4
    Close callPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:06CONN 4th & 2 at CONN 33, up 4
    Close callPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:24LIB 4th & 5 at LIB 49, down 4
    Close callPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:52LIB 4th & 10 at LIB 4, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−1.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:36CONN 4th & 4 at CONN 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−1.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:24LIB 4th & 13 at CONN 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−3.4
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−11.5
    average punt
  8. Q4 11:14CONN 4th & 22 at CONN 18, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−5.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:40LIB 4th & 1 at LIB 45, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    72.2%−3.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:40CONN 4th & 1 at LIB 32, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    28.4%−6.4
    51% to make
    Punt
    24.3%−10.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:40LIB 4th & 9 at LIB 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−1.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:42CONN 4th & 2 at LIB 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    80.0%−4.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    73.8%−10.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:20LIB 4th & 2 at LIB 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.3%−9.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:41LIB 4th & 13 at LIB 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.7%−2.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CONN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5LIB made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 10:28CONN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:47CONN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:00LIB Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:16CONN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:35LIB Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:33LIB Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:52CONN Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:39LIB Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    72.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:43CONN Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    60.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CONNDrive 1TD
8 plays · 51 yds · 4:2420% → 24%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
20.1%
Zion Turner pass complete to Aaron Turner for no gain to the UConn 49Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
20.1%
Victor Rosa run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 9
50
+19
20.0%
Zion Turner pass complete to Aaron Turner for 19 yds to the Liber 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
20.1%
Robert Burns run for 7 yds to the Liber 24Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 3
OPP 24
-2
20.1%
Devontae Houston run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 26Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+5
20.1%
Zion Turner pass complete to Aaron Turner for 5 yds to the Liber 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
20.1%
Zion Turner pass complete to Aaron Turner for 5 yds to the Liber 16Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+16
23.9%
Victor Rosa run for 16 yds for a TD, (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 2FG
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:5777% → 75%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
23.4%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Austin Henderson for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
50
+14
23.0%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Demario Douglas for 14 yds to the UConn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
23.0%
T.J. Green run for 10 yds to the UConn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
22.9%
T.J. Green run for 3 yds to the UConn 23Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+4
22.9%
T.J. Green run for 4 yds to the UConn 19Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 3
OPP 19
-1
25.3%
T.J. Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 20Similar
Q1 7:31
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+33
24.9%
Nick Brown 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 43 yds · 2:5025% → 27%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+22
24.7%
Zion Turner run for 22 yds to the UConn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
24.9%
Zion Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+15
24.8%
Devontae Houston run for 15 yds to the UConn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
25.3%
Devontae Houston run for 2 yds to the UConn 48Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
25.3%
Zion Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+4
25.0%
Zion Turner pass complete to Aaron Turner for 4 yds to the Liber 48Similar
Q1 4:37
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
27.0%
George Caratan punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Demario Douglas at the Liber 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 4FUMBLE RETURN TD
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:5073% → 67%
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
27.4%
Kaidon Salter run for 6 yds to the Liber 18Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+6
27.3%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Demario Douglas for 6 yds to the Liber 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
27.3%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+7
27.3%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to T.J. Green for 7 yds to the Liber 31Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+13
27.3%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to T.J. Green for 13 yds to the Liber 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
26.7%
LIBERTY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Liber 39Similar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 15
OWN 39
-2
27.1%
Johnathan Bennett sacked by Eric Watts and Pryce Yates for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 37Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 17
OWN 37
0
27.3%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 17
OWN 37
+31
33.5%
Jackson Mitchell 31 Yd Fumble Return (Noe Ruelas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5INT
4 plays · 34 yds · 1:3067% → 66%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
33.2%
T.J. Green run for 3 yds to the Liber 28Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
33.1%
Johnathan Bennett run for 11 yds to the Liber 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+20
32.6%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Dre Butler for 20 yds to the UConn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
33.7%
Johnathan Bennett pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:4736% → 37%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
50
+7
36.4%
Devontae Houston pass complete to Zion Turner for 7 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 43
0
36.5%
Victor Rosa run for no gain to the Liber 43Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 3
OPP 43
-8
37.1%
Zion Turner run for a loss of 8 yards to the UConn 49 Zion Turner fumbled, recovered by Liber Durrell JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7TD
5 plays · 49 yds · 1:1365% → 69%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+30
34.9%
Demario Douglas run for 30 yds to the UConn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+13
34.1%
BENNETT, Johnathan pass to the right incomplete intended for FRITH, Noah thrown to the UCO0. PENALTY UCO Pass Interference on WORTHAM, Tre enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the UCO6 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
34.1%
Malik Caper run for 3 yds to the UConn 3Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
34.1%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
30.7%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to CJ Yarbrough for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5432% → 33%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
31.6%
run for 8 yds to the UConn 33Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
32.4%
Victor Rosa run for 1 yd to the UConn 34Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
31.8%
Robert Burns run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 33Similar
Q2 11:06
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
32.5%
George Caratan punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Demario Douglas at the Liber 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 28 yds · 1:4266% → 65%
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
33.8%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Liber 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
32.5%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
32.8%
Malik Caper run for no gain to the Liber 44Similar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+5
33.4%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Malik Caper for 5 yds to the Liber 49Similar
Q2 9:24
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
34.6%
Max Morgan punt for 45 yds, downed at the UConn 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 10TD
9 plays · 94 yds · 4:0834% → 51%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+58
34.3%
Robert Burns run for 58 yds to the Liber 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
36.5%
Zion Turner run for 7 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+4
37.1%
Devontae Houston run for 4 yds to the Liber 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
37.1%
Zion Turner pass complete to Dajon Harrison for 1 yd to the Liber 24Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
37.1%
Zion Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+20
36.3%
Zion Turner pass complete to Aaron Turner for 20 yds to the Liber 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
37.1%
Robert Burns run for 3 yds to the Liber 1Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.5%
Robert Burns run for 1 yd for a TD, (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0850% → 46%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
50.3%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+3
51.7%
T.J. Green run for 3 yds to the Liber 7Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 10
OWN 4
0
52.5%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 10
OWN 4
+44
54.1%
Max Morgan punt for 44 yds , Victor Rosa returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 12INT
3 plays · -2 yds · 1:4153% → 54%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
53.0%
Zion Turner pass complete to Aaron Turner for no gain to the Liber 49Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-2
52.7%
Zion Turner pass complete to Kevens Clercius for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 49Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 12
OWN 49
0
54.1%
Zion Turner pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13TD
10 plays · 47 yds · 1:3648% → 60%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
51.7%
T.J. Green run for 6 yds to the UConn 41Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+6
50.8%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Demario Douglas for 6 yds to the UConn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
50.4%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Caleb Snead for 14 yds to the UConn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
49.7%
Johnathan Bennett run for 10 yds to the UConn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
49.7%
Malik Caper run for 4 yds to the UConn 7Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 6
OPP 7
-3
52.9%
T.J. Green run for a loss of 3 yards to the UConn 10Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+9
54.9%
Johnathan Bennett run for 9 yds to the UConn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.2%
Malik Caper run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.3%
[NH] Kneel down by UCO at UCO24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 15TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:2158% → 72%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
42.3%
BENNETT, Johnathan pass to the left incomplete intended for FRITH, Noah thrown to the UCO40. PENALTY UCO Pass Interference on BELL, Malcolm enforced 15 yards to the LIB35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
41.5%
T.J. Green run for 10 yds to the Liber 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
39.8%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Demario Douglas for 11 yds to the UConn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
38.8%
T.J. Green run for 16 yds to the UConn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
37.5%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Jerome Jackson for 15 yds to the UConn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
37.4%
T.J. Green run for 7 yds to the UConn 6Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+5
37.4%
T.J. Green run for 5 yds to the UConn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
27.8%
T.J. Green run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5732% → 32%
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
32.1%
Victor Rosa run for 3 yds to the UConn 28Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
32.3%
Devontae Houston run for no gain to the UConn 28Similar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
30.9%
Zion Turner pass complete to Aaron Turner for 3 yds to the UConn 31Similar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
31.6%
George Caratan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Demario Douglas at the Liber 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 17FG
19 plays · 59 yds · 6:1268% → 75%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
32.4%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Demario Douglas for 3 yds to the Liber 28Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
32.0%
T.J. Green run for 5 yds to the Liber 33Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
31.7%
T.J. Green run for 6 yds to the Liber 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
30.5%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-5
30.9%
LIBERTY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Liber 34Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+16
32.6%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Demario Douglas for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
50
+5
29.8%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 5 yds to the UConn 45Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+3
29.7%
Malik Caper run for 3 yds to the UConn 42Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+4
29.7%
Malik Caper run for 4 yds to the UConn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
29.8%
Malik Caper run for 3 yds to the UConn 35Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+8
28.5%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to T.J. Green for 8 yds to the UConn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
28.5%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+8
28.9%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Noah Frith for 8 yds to the UConn 19Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+6
29.7%
T.J. Green run for 6 yds to the UConn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
28.5%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+4
28.5%
T.J. Green run for 4 yds to the UConn 9Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 6
OPP 9
-15
29.7%
BENNETT, Johnathan pass to the right complete for 7 yards to JACKSON, Jerome caught at the UCO9 and advanced to the UCO2 (WORTHAM, Tre). PENALTY LIB Pass Interference on JACKSON, Jerome enforced 15 yards to the UCO24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 21
OPP 24
+8
31.0%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Caleb Snead for 8 yds to the UConn 16Similar
Q3 4:24
4TH & 13
OPP 16
+34
25.1%
Nick Brown 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 18TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3229% → 57%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.8%
Devontae Houston run for no gain to the UConn 25Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
28.5%
Zion Turner pass complete to Aaron Turner for 5 yds to the UConn 30Similar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
28.2%
TURNER, Zion pass up the middle incomplete intended for HARRISON, Dajon broken up by SCRUGGS, Javon at the UCO37. PENALTY LIB Personal Foul on JOHNSON, Durrell enforced 15 yards from the UCO30 to the UCO45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
31.6%
LIBERTY Penalty, Offsides (Durrell Johnson) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 5
50
-3
32.7%
Robert Burns run for a loss of 3 yards to the UConn 47Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
32.1%
Zion Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+5
29.6%
Zion Turner pass complete to Aaron Turner for 5 yds to the Liber 48Similar
Q3 4:24
4TH & 3
OPP 48
+15
29.9%
LIBERTY Penalty, Targeting on WALKER, Ahmad enforced (Ahmad Walker) to the Liber 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
34.5%
Devontae Houston run for 6 yds to the Liber 27Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 27
0
36.3%
Zion Turner run for no gain to the Liber 27Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+27
57.3%
Victor Rosa run for 27 yds for a TD, (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 19TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
26.4%
Demario Douglas 75 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 3:1930% → 27%
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
29.6%
Victor Rosa run for 5 yds to the UConn 16Similar
Q4 14:33
2ND & 5
OWN 16
-5
29.7%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UConn 11Similar
Q4 14:33
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+19
29.4%
Robert Burns run for 19 yds to the UConn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
30.3%
Devontae Houston run for a loss of 10 yards to the UConn 20Similar
Q4 14:33
2ND & 20
OWN 20
-2
29.4%
Devontae Houston run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 18Similar
Q4 14:33
3RD & 22
OWN 18
0
28.0%
Zion Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:14
4TH & 22
OWN 18
-8
27.4%
George Caratan punt for 50 yds , Demario Douglas returns for a loss of 8 yards to the Liber 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:3475% → 76%
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
25.0%
T.J. Green run for 5 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+7
24.1%
T.J. Green run for 7 yds to the Liber 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
23.6%
BENNETT, Johnathan pass to the right complete for 13 yards to FRITH, Noah caught at the LIB48 and advanced to the LIB49 (BELL, Malcolm;JONES, Durante). PENALTY LIB Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on WATKINS, Naasir enforced 5 yards from the LIB36 to the LIB31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+14
25.7%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Demario Douglas for 14 yds to the Liber 45Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
22.4%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
22.8%
Malik Caper run for no gain to the Liber 45Similar
Q4 8:40
4TH & 1
OWN 45
-4
24.2%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Malik Caper for a loss of 4 yards to the Liber 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 22TD
6 plays · 41 yds · 2:5739% → 78%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
39.0%
Robert Burns run for 1 yd to the Liber 40Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+5
39.0%
Victor Rosa run for 5 yds to the Liber 35Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+3
39.2%
Zion Turner pass complete to Dajon Harrison for 3 yds to the Liber 32Similar
Q4 8:40
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+2
37.0%
Zion Turner run for 2 yds to the Liber 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
42.0%
Victor Rosa run for no gain to the Liber 30Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
77.9%
Zion Turner pass complete to Kevens Clercius for 30 yds for a TD, (Zion Turner pass to Keelan Marion for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5435% → 30%
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
65.3%
T.J. Green run for 1 yd to the Liber 34Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
65.4%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:34
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
68.1%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
69.9%
Aidan Alves punt for 23 yds, downed at the UConn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 28 yds · 1:5877% → 88%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
77.3%
Robert Burns run for 19 yds to the Liber 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
84.0%
Robert Burns run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 39Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+4
83.7%
Victor Rosa run for 4 yds to the Liber 35Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+5
88.6%
Zion Turner pass complete to Dajon Harrison for 5 yds to the Liber 30Similar
Q4 2:42
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+1
87.6%
Robert Burns run for 1 yd to the Liber 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 25DOWNS
11 plays · 20 yds · 2:0115% → 12%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
84.6%
T.J. Green run for 8 yds to the Liber 37Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+4
82.3%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Noah Frith for 4 yds to the Liber 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
83.2%
T.J. Green run for 2 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+3
83.2%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to T.J. Green for 3 yds to the Liber 46Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+3
82.8%
T.J. Green run for 3 yds to the Liber 49Similar
Q4 1:20
4TH & 2
OWN 49
+3
83.4%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Jerome Jackson for 3 yds to the UConn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
80.0%
Johnathan Bennett run for a loss of 3 yards to the Liber 49 Johnathan Bennett fumbled, recovered by Liber Johnathan BennettSimilar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 13
OWN 49
0
84.0%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 11
OPP 49
0
83.7%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:41
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
88.2%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
95.7%
[NH] Kneel down by UCO at LIB50 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:43
Zion Turner pass complete to Kevens Clercius for 30 yds for a TD, (Zion Turner pass to Keelan Marion for Two-Point Conversion)
+36
TD · Q4 14:39
Demario Douglas 75 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-30.8
TD · Q4 14:52
Victor Rosa run for 27 yds for a TD, (Noe Ruelas KICK)
+20.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com