Try the model
CONN

UConn 21 at Ball State 25

BALL
2022 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2022 · Scheumann Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadCONN aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreCONN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · J. Paddock takes a knee
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:25: Zion Turner pass complete to Justin Joly for 39 yds for a TD, (Noe Ruelas KICK) — CONN win probability +7.2 pts (now 38%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 9:21: Ben VonGunten 38 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +2.6 pts (now 67%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:58: Robert Burns run for 1 yd for a TD, (Noe Ruelas KICK) — CONN win probability +9.3 pts (now 57%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:24: Carson Steele run for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — BALL win probability +33.1 pts (now 60%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 2:40: Carson Steele 17 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — BALL win probability +32.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 7 of 9CONN made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:41BALL 4th & 7 at CONN 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    74.2%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    74.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:10BALL 4th & 6 at BALL 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:33CONN 4th & 10 at CONN 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:15BALL 4th & 1 at CONN 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    64.6%−1.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    60.5%−5.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:21BALL 4th & 4 at CONN 21, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.2%−0.4
    74% to make
    Punt
    56.8%−5.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:00CONN 4th & 12 at BALL 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:51BALL 4th & 14 at BALL 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−2.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:03BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:34BALL 4th & 3 at CONN 21, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.1%−0.7
    74% to make
    Punt
    32.8%−8.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:05CONN 4th & 9 at CONN 37, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−1.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:00BALL 4th & 4 at BALL 17, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:00CONN 4th & 2 at BALL 38, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    59.5%−2.7
    38% to make
    Punt
    59.5%−2.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:20CONN 4th & 14 at BALL 40, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    67.4%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:04CONN 4th & 1 at CONN 44, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%−2.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:14BALL 4th & 11 at CONN 30, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−2.7
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    21.4%−4.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:15CONN 4th & 15 at CONN 20, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−9.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:27CONN 4th & 9 at CONN 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.2%−2.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CONN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:58CONN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:15BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:25CONN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:58CONN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:24BALL Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    46.8%−1.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    48.1%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:40BALL Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    78.9%−1.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    80.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:1174% → 74%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
74.2%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the UConn 47Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+7
74.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 7 yds to the UConn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
74.2%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the UConn 39Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+2
74.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 2 yds to the UConn 37Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
74.2%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q1 12:41
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+6
73.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 6 yds to the UConn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 2TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 2:4326% → 29%
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
73.7%
Victor Rosa run for 6 yds to the UConn 37Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+23
73.7%
Robert Burns run for 23 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
73.6%
Zion Turner run for 15 yds to the BalSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
73.5%
Aaron Turner run for 1 yd to the BalSt 24Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+5
73.5%
Zion Turner pass complete to Justin Joly for 5 yds to the BalSt 19Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+19
71.3%
Zion Turner pass complete to Aaron Turner for 19 yds for a TD, (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4172% → 71%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
71.7%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 6
OWN 21
0
71.7%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Amir Abdur-RahmanSimilar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 6
OWN 21
0
71.5%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Nick PresleySimilar
Q1 9:10
4TH & 6
OWN 21
0
71.0%
Lucas Borrow punt for 59 yds , Victor Rosa returns for no gain to the UConn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 3:3729% → 31%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
71.2%
PENALTY UConn False Start (Ofori-Nyadu,Noel) 5 yards from UConn15 to UConn10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+5
71.2%
Victor Rosa run for 5 yds to the UConn 15Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-5
71.2%
PENALTY UConn False Start (Niemenski,Brandon) 5 yards from UConn15 to UConn10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 15
OWN 10
+6
71.2%
Zion Turner pass complete to Aaron Turner for 6 yds to the UConn 16Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+12
71.4%
Zion Turner pass complete to Aaron Turner for 12 yds to the UConn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
71.0%
Zion Turner run for 2 yds to the UConn 30Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+2
71.0%
Zion Turner pass complete to Jacob Flynn for 2 yds to the UConn 32Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 6
OWN 32
-4
71.1%
Zion Turner sacked by Cole Pearce for a loss of 4 yards to the UConn 28Similar
Q1 5:33
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
69.3%
George Caratan punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jayshon Jackson at the BalSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 5:1869% → 72%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
69.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 10 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
69.3%
Jayshon Jackson run for 15 yds to the UConn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
70.1%
John Paddock run for 2 yds to the UConn 46Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+5
70.1%
Nick Presley run for 5 yds to the UConn 41Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+5
70.0%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the UConn 36 Carson Steele fumbled, recovered by BalSt Carson Steele for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
70.1%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 12 yds to the UConn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
70.4%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the UConn 21Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+16
70.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 16 yds to the UConn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
70.4%
John Paddock run for 3 yds to the UConn 2Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
70.4%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q1 5:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
70.0%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the UConn 1Similar
Q1 0:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.6%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 6TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:3530% → 38%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
69.9%
Aaron Turner run for 14 yds to the UConn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
69.1%
Victor Rosa run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
50
+1
68.9%
Zion Turner pass complete to Brandon Niemenski for 1 yd to the UConn 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+7
69.1%
Zion Turner pass complete to Aaron Turner for 7 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
68.8%
Robert Burns run for 5 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+39
61.6%
Zion Turner pass complete to Justin Joly for 39 yds for a TD, (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7FG
11 plays · 54 yds · 3:0464% → 67%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
63.7%
Jayshon Jackson run for 13 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
64.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 2 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+6
64.8%
Carson Steele run for 6 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+6
64.9%
Carson Steele run for 6 yds to the UConn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
65.6%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, unnecessary roughness (Malcolm Bell) to the UConn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-15
66.3%
(11:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Jackson,Jayshon rush left for 13 yards gain to the UConn14 (Bouyer-Randle,Brandon) PENALTY BSU Block Below Waist (Stewart,Corey) 15 yards from UConn27 to UConn42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 25
OPP 42
0
64.8%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Brady HuntSimilar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 25
OPP 42
+3
64.7%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the UConn 39Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 22
OPP 39
+18
64.1%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 18 yds to the UConn 21Similar
Q2 9:21
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+38
66.6%
Ben VonGunten 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 4:1735% → 37%
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
65.4%
Zion Turner pass complete to Aaron Turner for 4 yds to the UConn 21Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+18
65.4%
Zion Turner pass complete to Kevens Clercius for 18 yds to the UConn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
64.2%
Victor Rosa run for 16 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
63.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Rosa,Victor rush left for 0 yards to the BSU45 (Pearce,Cole) PENALTY UConn Holding (Guidone,Jake) 10 yards from BSU45 to UConn45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+7
64.7%
Zion Turner pass complete to Brandon Niemenski for 7 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+6
64.4%
Robert Burns run for 6 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 7
OPP 42
-5
64.1%
Zion Turner sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the BalSt 47Similar
Q2 5:00
4TH & 12
OPP 47
0
63.2%
George Caratan punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jayshon Jackson at the BalSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:0962% → 59%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
62.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 6 yds to the BalSt 16Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+12
62.5%
Carson Steele run for 12 yds to the BalSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
62.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 2 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 30
-10
62.8%
BALL ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BalSt 21Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 17
OWN 21
+3
62.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 3 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 14
OWN 24
0
61.3%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Brady HuntSimilar
Q2 2:51
4TH & 14
OWN 24
+1
59.3%
Lucas Borrow punt for 41 yds , Victor Rosa returns for 1 yd to the UConn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 10TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 1:5341% → 57%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
58.9%
Zion Turner run for 7 yds to the UConn 43Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+3
57.9%
Zion Turner pass complete to Aaron Turner for 3 yds to the UConn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
57.9%
Zion Turner run for 11 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
57.5%
Victor Rosa run for 4 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+1
54.4%
Victor Rosa run for 1 yd to the BalSt 40Similar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+24
55.1%
Robert Burns run for 24 yds to the BalSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
53.2%
Victor Rosa run for 15 yds to the BalSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
53.3%
Robert Burns run for no gain to the BalSt 1Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.6%
Robert Burns run for 1 yd for a TD, (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:4946% → 44%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
45.6%
John Paddock pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 7 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+10
47.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Paddock,John pass incomplete short left to Koziol,Tanner broken up by Shearin,Chris PENALTY UConn Illegal Block in Back (Shearin,Chris) 10 yards from BSU38 to BSU48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
47.5%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Amir Abdur-RahmanSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
47.1%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
46.1%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Brady HuntSimilar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
44.1%
Lucas Borrow punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
43.9%
Z. Turner takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:0454% → 57%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
45.9%
Victor Rosa run for 10 yds to the UConn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
44.6%
Robert Burns run for 2 yds to the UConn 41Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
43.3%
Zion Turner pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14FG
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:1447% → 47%
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
50
+1
47.4%
Jayshon Jackson run for 1 yd to the UConn 49Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+7
47.5%
Carson Steele run for 7 yds to the UConn 42Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+3
47.6%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the UConn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
47.8%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 1 yd to the UConn 40Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 11
OPP 40
0
47.6%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+12
46.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 12 yds to the UConn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
49.2%
Carson Steele run for 6 yds to the UConn 22Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+1
49.1%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the UConn 21Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 3
OPP 21
0
47.6%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Brady HuntSimilar
Q3 10:34
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+38
47.1%
Ben VonGunten 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 3:2957% → 59%
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
43.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Turner,Zion pass complete short right to Niemenski,Brandon for 6 yards to the UConn31 (Riley,Jordan; Amos,Jaquan), out of bounds PENALTY UConn Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Haynes,Christian) 5 yards from UConn25 to UConn20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:34
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+14
44.0%
Zion Turner run for 14 yds to the UConn 34Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
42.3%
Robert Burns run for no gain to the UConn 34Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
43.0%
Robert Burns run for 2 yds to the UConn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
42.2%
Victor Rosa run for 1 yd to the UConn 35Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+2
43.4%
Victor Rosa run for 2 yds to the UConn 37Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
43.4%
Zion Turner pass incomplete to Kevens ClerciusSimilar
Q3 7:05
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
41.2%
George Caratan punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0541% → 38%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
41.2%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the BalSt 15Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+2
41.4%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 17Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 4
OWN 17
0
40.0%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 4
OWN 17
0
38.0%
Lucas Borrow punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 6 yds · 4:4064% → 68%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
35.6%
Robert Burns run for 6 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 4
OPP 40
-5
35.4%
PENALTY UConn False Start (Brown,Rayonte) 5 yards from BSU40 to BSU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+5
35.6%
Victor Rosa run for 5 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+2
36.0%
Victor Rosa run for 2 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+2
38.0%
Cale Millen run for 2 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
35.6%
Victor Rosa run for 3 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+4
34.9%
Zion Turner pass complete to Kevens Clercius for 4 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+11
36.0%
Zion Turner pass complete to Justin Joly for 11 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q3 1:20
4TH & 14
OPP 40
0
32.2%
George Caratan punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18INT
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:1233% → 36%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
33.3%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 21Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
33.2%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+15
31.8%
(00:46) No Huddle-Shotgun Paddock,John pass incomplete short left to Jackson,Jayshon broken up by Gourdine,Dalmont PENALTY UConn Pass Interference (Cross,Stan) 15 yards from BSU21 to BSU36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
34.5%
Carson Steele run for 7 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q3 0:08
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
36.2%
John Paddock pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5671% → 72%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
29.1%
Victor Rosa run for 3 yds to the UConn 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
27.5%
Robert Burns run for 2 yds to the UConn 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+4
27.8%
Zion Turner pass complete to Aaron Turner for 4 yds to the UConn 44Similar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
28.0%
George Caratan punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20MISSED FG
14 plays · 40 yds · 4:5031% → 24%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
31.2%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Amir Abdur-RahmanSimilar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
30.5%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q4 13:48
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+12
28.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 12 yds to the BalSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
33.5%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
34.4%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Amir Abdur-RahmanSimilar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+15
28.6%
John Paddock pass complete to Nick Presley for 15 yds to the UConn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
32.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 5 yds to the UConn 34Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+4
33.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 4 yds to the UConn 30Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+1
31.9%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the UConn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
33.9%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the UConn 25Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+1
33.9%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 1 yd to the UConn 24Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 5
OPP 24
-6
31.8%
John Paddock sacked by Jackson Mitchell for a loss of 6 yards to the UConn 30Similar
Q4 9:14
4TH & 11
OPP 30
+6
23.6%
Ben VonGunten 47 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Malcolm Bell , Tre Wortham return for 6 yds to the UConn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 21FUMBLE
4 plays · -17 yds · 1:0983% → 83%
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
17.2%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the UConn 33Similar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 23
OWN 33
+4
20.1%
Victor Rosa run for 4 yds to the UConn 29Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 27
OWN 29
0
20.8%
Zion Turner pass incomplete to Bo EstesSimilar
Q4 8:05
3RD & 27
OWN 29
0
17.3%
Victor Rosa run for no gain to the UConn 24 Victor Rosa fumbled, recovered by BalSt Amechi Uzodinma IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22TD
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:4129% → 60%
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
29.4%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+9
28.8%
Carson Steele run for 9 yds to the UConn 15Similar
Q4 8:05
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+13
27.4%
Carson Steele run for 13 yds to the UConn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
60.4%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 2:0958% → 59%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
42.5%
Zion Turner run for 6 yds to the UConn 31Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-6
40.0%
Zion Turner sacked by Sidney Houston Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the UConn 25Similar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
44.9%
Zion Turner sacked by John Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the UConn 20Similar
Q4 5:15
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
41.2%
George Caratan punt for 39 yds , Dean Tate returns for no gain to the BalSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 2:3551% → 87%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
51.2%
Carson Steele run for 7 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+1
52.6%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 49Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+2
50.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 2 yds to the UConn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
53.1%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+25
52.1%
Carson Steele run for 25 yds to the UConn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
56.2%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Tanner KoziolSimilar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+7
56.0%
Carson Steele run for 7 yds to the UConn 17Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+17
88.8%
Carson Steele 17 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
87.4%
PENALTY UConn UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Stafford,Jelani) 15 yards from BSU35 to BSU50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 25DOWNS
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:0724% → 19%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
76.2%
Zion Turner pass complete to Jacob Flynn for 5 yds to the UConn 19Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+1
76.0%
Zion Turner pass complete to Aaron Turner for 1 yd to the UConn 20Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 4
OWN 20
0
77.8%
Zion Turner pass incomplete to Jacob FlynnSimilar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 4
OWN 20
-5
79.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Turner,Zion pass complete short right to Turner,Aaron for 5 yards to the UConn25 (Amos,Jaquan) PENALTY UConn Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Haynes,Christian) 5 yards from UConn20 to UConn15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:27
4TH & 9
OWN 15
+5
80.6%
Zion Turner pass complete to Robert Burns for 5 yds to the UConn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 26END OF GAME
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:2793% → 96%
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
92.5%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the UConn 15Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+7
94.3%
Carson Steele run for 7 yds to the UConn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
95.6%
J. Paddock takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
96.3%
J. Paddock takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:24
Carson Steele run for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+33.1
TD · Q4 2:40
Carson Steele 17 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+32.8
TD · Q2 0:58
Robert Burns run for 1 yd for a TD, (Noe Ruelas KICK)
-9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com