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NAVY

Navy 17 at Army 20

ARMY
2022 · Week 15 · Dec 10, 2022 · Lincoln Financial Field
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2FGTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:05 · Billy Boehlke punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the Navy 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialTime remainingPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+21.5+10.80−10.8−21.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2Play 53Home team on offense−0.7Score differential−0.9Time remaining−0.7Pregame prior−2.1Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:09: Anton Hall Jr. run for 77 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +21.3 pts (now 58%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 1:53: Quinn Maretzki 37 yd FG GOOD — ARMY win probability +21.3 pts (now 60%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · OT 0:00: Markel Johnson run for 25 yds for a TD (Quinn Maretzki KICK) — ARMY win probability +28.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Xavier Arline pass complete to Maquel Haywood for 25 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +45.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. KEY PLAY · OT2 0:00: Markel Johnson run for no gain to the Navy 25 — ARMY win probability +22.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 11 of 11NAVY made the numbers' call on 7 of 12
  1. Q1 7:19NAVY 4th & 10 at ARMY 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    53.3%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:28ARMY 4th & 4 at ARMY 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:11NAVY 4th & 1 at ARMY 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    52.1%−0.9
    38% to make
    Punt
    52.1%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:24NAVY 4th & 11 at ARMY 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    52.2%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:39ARMY 4th & 8 at ARMY 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:36NAVY 4th & 1 at ARMY 26, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.6%−1.0
    64% to make
    Punt
    49.1%−3.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:34ARMY 4th & 14 at ARMY 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−1.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:37NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:05ARMY 4th & 7 at ARMY 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:56NAVY 4th & 7 at NAVY 12, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−1.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:13ARMY 4th & 2 at NAVY 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    45.5%−1.6
    49% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−3.0
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:06NAVY 4th & 14 at NAVY 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−2.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:08ARMY 4th & 7 at NAVY 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    60.0%−1.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:56NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 27, down 4
    Close callPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:54ARMY 4th & 12 at ARMY 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−4.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:06NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 45, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.1 ptsPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%−4.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:15ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.1%−3.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:15ARMY 4th & 9 at ARMY 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:04NAVY 4th & 7 at midfield, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:31ARMY 4th & 23 at NAVY 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−4.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:21NAVY 4th & 7 at NAVY 8, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−3.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:53ARMY 4th & 2 at NAVY 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−8.7
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−27.4
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:06NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−2.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 4:09NAVY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1PUNT
14 plays · 37 yds · 7:3153% → 52%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
46.6%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
46.8%
Daba Fofana run for 7 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
46.9%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
47.0%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
47.0%
Xavier Arline run for 7 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+4
47.1%
Daba Fofana run for 4 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
47.0%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 45Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 14
OWN 45
+17
47.5%
Xavier Arline run for 17 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
47.2%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Army 43Similar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+5
47.5%
Maquel Haywood run for 5 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-2
47.2%
Maquel Haywood run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 40Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 12
OPP 40
+2
47.7%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q1 7:19
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
48.1%
Riley Riethman punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4348% → 48%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
48.2%
Tyhier Tyler run for 1 yd to the Army 21Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+4
48.2%
Tyhier Tyler run for 4 yds to the Army 25Similar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+1
48.1%
Cade Ballard run for 1 yd to the Army 26Similar
Q1 5:28
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
47.8%
Billy Boehlke punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the Navy 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 4:5752% → 51%
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
47.7%
Arline, Xavier pass incomplete to Puailoa-Rojas, Kai, PENALTY ARMY holding 10 yards to the ARMY47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NAVY.Similar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
47.5%
Xavier Arline run for no gain to the Army 47Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
47.7%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 8 yds to the Army 39Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+1
47.6%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the Army 38Similar
Q1 3:11
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+1
48.4%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-4
47.3%
Daba Fofana run for a loss of 4 yards to the Army 41Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 14
OPP 41
0
47.9%
Daba Fofana run for no gain to the Army 41Similar
Q1 1:01
3RD & 14
OPP 41
+3
48.6%
Xavier Arline run for 3 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q1 0:24
4TH & 11
OPP 38
0
49.2%
Riley Riethman punt for 34 yds, downed at the Army 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3750% → 49%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
49.7%
Tyhier Tyler run for 2 yds to the Army 6Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 8
OWN 6
0
49.7%
Cade Ballard pass incomplete to Cole CaterboneSimilar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 8
OWN 6
0
49.0%
Cade Ballard pass incomplete to Ay'Jaun MarshallSimilar
Q2 14:39
4TH & 8
OWN 6
+9
48.7%
Billy Boehlke punt for 38 yds , Amin Hassan returns for 9 yds to the Army 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5FG
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3953% → 53%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
47.0%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+1
47.0%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the Army 32Similar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+6
47.8%
Daba Fofana run for 6 yds to the Army 26Similar
Q2 12:36
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+44
47.0%
Bijan Nichols 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:5648% → 47%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
48.3%
Tyhier Tyler run for a loss of 4 yards to the Army 21Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
48.1%
Cade Ballard pass incomplete to Isaiah AlstonSimilar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
47.4%
Cade Ballard pass incomplete to Tyson RileySimilar
Q2 11:34
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+10
47.2%
Billy Boehlke punt for 55 yds , Amin Hassan returns for 10 yds to the Navy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5153% → 52%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
47.3%
Xavier Arline run for 7 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+1
46.3%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 1 yd to the Navy 42Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 2
OWN 42
-3
46.2%
Daba Fofana run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 39Similar
Q2 9:37
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
47.8%
Riley Riethman punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Cameron Jones at the Army 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:2549% → 48%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
48.5%
Tyhier Tyler run for 6 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+3
49.7%
Tyhier Tyler run for 3 yds to the Army 36Similar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+6
49.4%
Tyhier Tyler run for 6 yds to the Army 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
49.5%
Braheam Murphy run for no gain to the Army 42Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
48.3%
Tyhier Tyler pass incomplete to Braheam MurphySimilar
Q2 7:38
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+3
48.1%
Cade Ballard run for 3 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q2 7:05
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
47.8%
Billy Boehlke punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the Navy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5652% → 51%
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
48.4%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the Navy 11Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+1
47.9%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the Navy 12Similar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 7
OWN 12
0
48.5%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for no gain to the Navy 12Similar
Q2 4:56
4TH & 7
OWN 12
0
49.2%
Riley Riethman punt for 29 yds, downed at the Navy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4351% → 50%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
51.3%
ARMY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 46Similar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+9
49.6%
Tyhier Tyler run for 9 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
51.5%
Tyhier Tyler run for no gain to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+4
51.2%
Tyhier Tyler run for 4 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q2 3:13
4TH & 2
OPP 33
-2
50.2%
Tyhier Tyler run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11PUNT TD
8 plays · -4 yds · 1:5654% → 36%
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
46.5%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-5
45.9%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 32Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+4
46.9%
Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-5
45.7%
NAVY Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Navy 31Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 14
OWN 31
-5
47.0%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 26Similar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 19
OWN 26
+5
47.0%
Daba Fofana run for 5 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 14
OWN 31
+31
63.6%
Riley Riethman punt blocked by Noah Short, Jabril Williams return for 31 yds for a TD, (Quinn Maretzki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:4938% → 40%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
62.1%
Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+28
62.3%
Xavier Arline run for 28 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
59.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
60.0%
Maasai Maynor pass incomplete to Jayden UmbargerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:4258% → 62%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
58.4%
Tyhier Tyler run for 13 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
59.8%
Tyhier Tyler run for 3 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q3 13:47
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
60.7%
Tyhier Tyler pass incomplete to Braheam MurphySimilar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+11
59.0%
Cade Ballard run for 11 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
62.0%
Cade Ballard run for no gain to the Navy 48Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
61.7%
Ay'Jaun Marshall run for no gain to the Navy 48Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+3
60.1%
Markel Johnson run for 3 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
61.9%
Billy Boehlke punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0340% → 36%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
60.0%
Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-1
60.8%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 23Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+4
62.8%
Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+19
63.8%
Riley Riethman punt for 32 yds , Cameron Jones returns for 19 yds to the Navy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · -14 yds · 4:2567% → 63%
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
66.7%
Tyhier Tyler run for 10 yds to the Navy 30 ARMY Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Navy 40Similar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
66.7%
ARMY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+11
65.3%
Tyhier Tyler run for 11 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 4
OPP 34
0
68.0%
Tyhier Tyler run for no gain to the Navy 34Similar
Q3 7:18
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+5
67.0%
Tyhier Tyler run for 5 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
68.5%
Tyhier Tyler run for no gain to the Navy 29Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+5
68.8%
Markel Johnson run for 5 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 5
OPP 24
-5
67.8%
ARMY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 29Similar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 10
OPP 29
-25
67.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 25 yards to the Army 46 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Army Markel JohnsonSimilar
Q3 4:21
4TH & 35
OWN 46
+8
63.3%
Billy Boehlke punt for 39 yds , Amin Hassan returns for 8 yds to the Navy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16TD
1 play · 77 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+77
42.1%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 77 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:1045% → 42%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.3%
Cade Ballard pass incomplete to Tyhier TylerSimilar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
45.0%
Tyhier Tyler run for no gain to the Army 25Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-2
43.3%
Cade Ballard sacked by John Marshall for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 23Similar
Q3 2:54
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
42.0%
Billy Boehlke punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the Navy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3960% → 59%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
40.5%
Xavier Arline run for 3 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+5
39.1%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 5 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
39.3%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 1:06
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
41.2%
Riley Riethman punt for 49 yds, downed at the Army 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:4544% → 40%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+7
43.9%
Braheam Murphy run for 7 yds to the Army 13Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 3
OWN 13
+1
44.5%
Tyhier Tyler run for 1 yd to the Army 14Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+1
42.7%
Tyhier Tyler run for 1 yd to the Army 15Similar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 1
OWN 15
+4
41.6%
Tyson Riley run for 4 yds to the Army 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-10
44.6%
Tyhier Tyler sacked by Colin Ramos and Mbiti Williams Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the Army 9Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 20
OWN 9
+11
43.5%
Ay'Jaun Marshall run for 11 yds to the Army 20Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 9
OWN 20
0
40.9%
Cade Ballard pass incomplete to Braheam MurphySimilar
Q4 12:15
4TH & 9
OWN 20
+12
39.5%
Billy Boehlke punt for 45 yds , Amin Hassan returns for 12 yds to the Navy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:0265% → 64%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
35.5%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
35.0%
Anton Hall Jr. run for no gain to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+1
33.2%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:04
4TH & 7
50
0
35.9%
Riley Riethman punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 2:2541% → 36%
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+26
41.2%
Cade Ballard pass complete to Braheam Murphy for 26 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
46.3%
Tyhier Tyler run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+15
41.8%
Ballard, Cade pass incomplete to Alston, Isaiah, PENALTY NAVY pass interference 15 yards to the NAVY34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARMY.Similar
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-15
46.9%
Murphy, Braheam rush for no gain to the NAVY34, PENALTY ARMY illegal block 15 yards to the NAVY49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 25
OPP 49
0
41.5%
Cade Ballard pass incomplete to Isaiah AlstonSimilar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 25
OPP 49
+2
41.2%
Cade Ballard pass complete to Braheam Murphy for 2 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 23
OPP 47
0
38.6%
Cade Ballard pass incomplete to Braheam MurphySimilar
Q4 7:31
4TH & 23
OPP 47
0
36.0%
Billy Boehlke punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:5468% → 67%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
31.9%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 1 yd to the Navy 6Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+1
31.8%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the Navy 7Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 8
OWN 7
+6
30.4%
Maquel Haywood run for 6 yds to the Navy 13Similar
Q4 5:31
4TH & 2
OWN 13
-5
31.3%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 8Similar
Q4 5:21
4TH & 7
OWN 8
+5
32.9%
Riley Riethman punt for 51 yds , Cameron Jones returns for 5 yds to the Army 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 23FG
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:1940% → 60%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
39.9%
Markel Johnson run for 5 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+4
41.7%
Cade Ballard run for 4 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
41.3%
Markel Johnson run for 2 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
41.9%
Ballard, Cade pass incomplete to Marshall, Ay'Jaun, PENALTY NAVY pass interference 15 yards to the NAVY28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARMY.Similar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
44.7%
Cade Ballard run for 4 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+3
44.6%
Ay'Jaun Marshall run for 3 yds to the Navy 21Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+1
38.4%
Cade Ballard run for 1 yd to the Navy 20Similar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+37
59.7%
Quinn Maretzki 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 24PUNT
11 plays · 20 yds · 1:3550% → 50%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.6%
Xavier Arline run for no gain to the Navy 25Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
50.2%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the Navy 26Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+13
51.4%
Maquel Haywood run for 13 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
45.5%
Daniel Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 38Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+7
49.5%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 7 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
45.5%
Maasai Maynor pass incomplete to Daniel JonesSimilar
Q4 0:06
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
49.9%
Riley Riethman punt for 48 yds, downed at the Army 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
57.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 26TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
86.6%
Markel Johnson run for 25 yds for a TD (Quinn Maretzki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 27TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
41.1%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Maquel Haywood for 25 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 28Uncategorized
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:0059% → 57%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
41.1%
Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the Army 21Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
41.1%
Daniel Jones run for no gain to the Army 21Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+6
43.6%
Xavier Arline run for 6 yds to the Army 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
41.1%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 11 yds to the Army 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
41.1%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the Army 2Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
41.1%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 3Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
43.3%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 2 yds to the Army 1 Anton Hall Jr. fumbled, forced by Austin Hill, recovered by Army Darius RichardsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 29FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0066% → 80%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
65.6%
Markel Johnson run for no gain to the Navy 25Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
65.4%
Tyson Riley run for 2 yds to the Navy 23Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+1
63.1%
Cade Ballard run for 1 yd to the Navy 22Similar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+39
80.1%
Quinn Maretzki 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Xavier Arline pass complete to Maquel Haywood for 25 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)
-45.5
TD · OT 0:00
Markel Johnson run for 25 yds for a TD (Quinn Maretzki KICK)
+28.9
KEY PLAY · OT2 0:00
Markel Johnson run for no gain to the Navy 25
+22.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com