2022 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2022 · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
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Win probability · MASS
modelMASS aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playMASS scoreARMY score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:47 · Quinn Maretzki 20 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 10:48: Gino Campiotti run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cameron Carson KICK) — MASS win probability +3.0 pts (now 16%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:53: Tyhier Tyler run for 27 yds for a TD, (Quinn Maretzki KICK) — ARMY win probability +3.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:05: Tyhier Tyler run for 4 yds for a TD, (Quinn Maretzki KICK) — ARMY win probability +3.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:57: Tyhier Tyler run for 1 yd for a TD, (Quinn Maretzki KICK) — ARMY win probability +6.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:32: Jakobi Buchanan run for 1 yd for a TD UMASS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the UMass 0, (Quinn Maretzki KICK) — ARMY win probability +1.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MASS made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ARMY made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 8:34ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snapGo for it84.7%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.7%average punt
- Q1 1:20MASS 4th & 4 at MASS 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snapGo for it17.8%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.9%average punt
- Q2 13:43MASS 4th & 10 at MASS 18, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snapGo for it14.7%−0.628% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.2%average punt
- Q2 1:16MASS 4th & 16 at MASS 35, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snapGo for it6.9%−0.515% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.4%average punt
- Q3 12:47ARMY 4th & 4 at ARMY 31, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snapGo for it94.5%−0.348% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.8%average punt
- Q3 8:48MASS 4th & 5 at ARMY 41, down 21Close callPunted · 6.3% before the snapGo for it6.6%42% to convertField goal5.9%−0.732% to makePuntTheir call6.2%−0.4average punt
- Q3 8:04ARMY 4th & 11 at ARMY 19, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snapGo for it95.7%−0.725% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.4%average punt
- Q3 3:28MASS 4th & 2 at ARMY 2, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.2%48% to convertField goal4.3%−0.994% to makePunt0.3%−4.9average punt
- Q4 14:54ARMY 4th & 4 at ARMY 20, up 21Close callPunted · 97.7% before the snapGo for it97.7%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 14:31ARMY 4th & 2 at MASS 32, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.8%57% to convertField goal97.5%−0.351% to makePunt97.2%−0.6average punt
- Q4 4:47ARMY 4th & 3 at MASS 3, up 28Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%44% to convertField goalTheir call99.7%−0.193% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
- Q4 2:43MASS 4th & 1 at MASS 22, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.171% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MASS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ARMY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 10:48MASS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call13.7%97% to makeGo for two13.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:54ARMY Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.0%97% to makeGo for two82.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:53ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.1%97% to makeGo for two84.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:05ARMY Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.4%97% to makeGo for two86.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:57ARMY Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.8%97% to makeGo for two91.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:32ARMY Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:20ARMY Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMASSDrive 1TD9 plays · 75 yds · 4:1213% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
13.2%
Brady Olson sacked by Chris Frey for a loss of 9 yards to the UMass 16Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+27
13.2%
Brady Olson pass complete to Ellis Merriweather for 27 yds to the UMass 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
13.2%
Brady Olson pass complete to Isaac Ross for 19 yds to the Army 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
13.2%
Ellis Merriweather run for 13 yds to the Army 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 2:1484% → 82%
Q1 8:34
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
17.8%
Billy Boehlke punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Isaac Ross at the UMass 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 3FUMBLE6 plays · 8 yds · 2:1518% → 20%
Q1 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+13
17.7%
Ellis Merriweather run for 13 yds to the UMass 40 Ellis Merriweather fumbled, recovered by UMass for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-9
19.8%
Brady Olson run for a loss of 9 yards to the UMass 35 Brady Olson fumbled, recovered by Army Fabrice VoyneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4TD5 plays · 35 yds · 2:2581% → 82%
Q1 6:19
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+23
19.0%
Tyhier Tyler pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 23 yds to the UMass 10 for a 1ST down UMASS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tyler Rudolph) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
17.7%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 10 yds for a TD, (Quinn Maretzki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 2:3419% → 20%
ARMYDrive 6TD4 plays · 77 yds · 1:2780% → 84%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0317% → 17%
ARMYDrive 8TD5 plays · 50 yds · 2:3884% → 87%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 9FUMBLE8 plays · 46 yds · 3:2814% → 15%
Q2 11:05
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
14.0%
Brady Olson pass complete to Cameron Sullivan-Brown for 8 yds to the UMass 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
14.2%
Brady Olson pass complete to Cameron Sullivan-Brown for 11 yds to the UMass 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 10
OPP 28
-1
14.5%
Brady Olson pass complete to Isaac Ross for a loss of 1 yard Isaac Ross fumbled, recovered by Army Cameron JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10TD10 plays · 71 yds · 5:4087% → 94%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+44
13.4%
Tyhier Tyler pass complete to Joshua Lingenfelter for 44 yds to the UMass 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 10 yds · 0:418% → 9%
ARMYDrive 12END OF HALF3 plays · 6 yds · 1:1694% → 94%
ARMYDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 2:1394% → 94%
Q3 12:47
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
6.1%
Billy Boehlke punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Isaac Ross at the UMass 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 29 yds · 3:598% → 7%
Q3 12:47
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+21
8.1%
Brady Olson pass complete to George Johnson III for 21 yds to the Army 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
8.9%
UMASS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jaret Pallotta) to the UMass 45Similar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
8.6%
OLSON, Brady pass up the middle complete for 55 yards to SULLIVAN-BROWN, Cam to the UMA45, 1ST DOWN, TOUCHDOWN UMA, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY UMA Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on GIBSON, Jacquon AWP Holding , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 19
OWN 45
+9
8.3%
Brady Olson pass complete to Cameron Sullivan-Brown for 9 yds to the Army 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4496% → 96%
Q3 8:04
4TH & 11
OWN 19
+17
4.2%
Billy Boehlke punt for 30 yds , Isaac Ross returns for 17 yds to the Army 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 16DOWNS8 plays · 30 yds · 4:367% → 5%
Q3 8:04
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+5
7.4%
Brady Olson pass complete to Cameron Sullivan-Brown for 5 yds to the Army 25Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+7
7.1%
Brady Olson pass complete to Isaac Ross for 7 yds to the Army 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+17
7.5%
Brady Olson pass complete to George Johnson III for 17 yds to the Army 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 3:3497% → 98%
MASSDrive 18INT3 plays · 0 yds · 0:233% → 3%
ARMYDrive 19TD11 plays · 40 yds · 5:5998% → 100%
Q4 8:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.2%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 1 yd for a TD UMASS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the UMass 0, (Quinn Maretzki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 20INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 21FG6 plays · 16 yds · 3:31100% → 100%
Q4 8:18
2ND & 1
OPP 10
-1
0.2%
Bryson Daily run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 7 Bryson Daily fumbled, recovered by Army Bryson Daily for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:570% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 23TD3 plays · 66 yds · 1:23100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:57
Tyhier Tyler run for 1 yd for a TD, (Quinn Maretzki KICK)
-6.6
TD · Q2 14:53
Tyhier Tyler run for 27 yds for a TD, (Quinn Maretzki KICK)
-3.5
TD · Q2 11:05
Tyhier Tyler run for 4 yds for a TD, (Quinn Maretzki KICK)
-3.2