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ARMY

Army 9 at Troy 10

TROY
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:01 · Billy Boehlke punt for 42 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 91Pregame prior+8.7Home team on offense−10.1Garbage-time factor−3.7Score differential−3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.7
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:26: Gunnar Watson pass incomplete — TROY win probability +9.4 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:49: Tyson Riley run for 3 yds to the Army 23 — ARMY win probability +14.0 pts (now 65%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:04: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 3 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK) — TROY win probability +24.6 pts (now 71%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:01: Tyson Riley run for 1 yd to the Troy 33 — ARMY win probability +10.7 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:15: [SG] Kneel down by WATSON, Gunnar at TRO24 (team loss of 1). — TROY win probability +22.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ARMY made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 6:30ARMY 4th & 1 at TROY 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.6%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    29.2%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    28.0%−1.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:11TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 11, tied
    Close callPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:11ARMY 4th & 1 at TROY 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    29.5%−0.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    28.1%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:09TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 41, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:42ARMY 4th & 4 at TROY 46, up 6
    Close callPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    39.3%−1.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:40TROY 4th & 10 at TROY 29, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:06ARMY 4th & 8 at TROY 9, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−2.0
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−5.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:06TROY 4th & 4 at ARMY 4, down 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.5%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    32.5%−12.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:01ARMY 4th & 2 at TROY 42, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    53.9%−4.0
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%−2.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:20TROY 4th & 16 at TROY 24, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−5.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:26ARMY 4th & 22 at ARMY 41, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−7.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:23ARMY 4th & 10 at ARMY 20, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−2.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:04TROY 4th & 3 at ARMY 3, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    36.0%−5.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    20.9%−20.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:17ARMY 4th & 7 at TROY 44, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    35.1%−1.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%−1.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:10TROY 4th & 11 at TROY 33, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−6.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:15ARMY 4th & 1 at TROY 25, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−22.8
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−40.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ARMY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 14:57ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    35.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 8:04TROY Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.4%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARMYDrive 1DOWNS
15 plays · 73 yds · 8:3026% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
74.2%
Tyson Riley run for 4 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
74.2%
Tyhier Tyler run for 10 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
74.2%
ARMY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Army 34Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+9
74.2%
Ay'Jaun Marshall run for 9 yds to the Army 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+7
74.2%
Tyson Riley run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
74.2%
Tyson Riley run for 4 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+3
74.2%
Tyhier Tyler run for 3 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+3
74.2%
Tyhier Tyler run for 3 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
74.2%
TROY Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Troy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
74.2%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 8 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+2
74.2%
Tyson Riley run for 2 yds to the Troy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
74.2%
Tyhier Tyler run for 6 yds to the Troy 6Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+2
74.2%
Tyhier Tyler run for 2 yds to the Troy 4Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+1
74.2%
Tyson Riley run for 1 yd to the Troy 3Similar
Q1 6:30
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+1
71.8%
Tyhier Tyler run for 1 yd to the Troy 2 Tyhier Tyler fumbled, recovered by Troy Buddha JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1972% → 71%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
72.2%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the Troy 3Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+8
72.1%
DK Billingsley run for 8 yds to the Troy 11Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 1
OWN 11
0
71.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:11
4TH & 1
OWN 11
0
71.3%
Mike Rivers punt for 37 yds, downed at the Troy 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 3TD
11 plays · 48 yds · 5:1429% → 35%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
71.0%
Tyson Riley run for 4 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+8
71.0%
Tyhier Tyler run for 8 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
71.0%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 4 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+3
70.7%
Hayden Reed run for 3 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+13
71.0%
Ay'Jaun Marshall run for 13 yds to the Troy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
70.7%
Tyhier Tyler pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+6
70.7%
Tyhier Tyler run for 6 yds to the Troy 10Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+3
71.0%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 3 yds to the Troy 7Similar
Q1 5:11
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+3
71.4%
Tyhier Tyler run for 3 yds to the Troy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
68.3%
Hayden Reed run for 1 yd to the Troy 3Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
65.2%
Tyhier Tyler 3 Yd Run (Quinn Maretzki PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:4867% → 65%
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
67.0%
WATSON, Gunnar pass up the middle complete for 20 yards to STOUDEMIRE, Deshon caught at the TRO40 and advanced to the TRO45 (HAMMONDS, Quindrelin;O'GARA, Camden). PENALTY TRO Holding on BETTS, Grant enforced 10 yards from the TRO25 to the TRO15 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+6
66.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 6 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+17
66.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 17 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
67.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+1
68.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Troy 41Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
67.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:09
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
64.6%
Mike Rivers punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Cameron Jones at the Army 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 44 yds · 3:2736% → 39%
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
64.5%
Tyson Riley run for 2 yds to the Army 12Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+36
64.6%
Tyhier Tyler pass complete to Joshua Lingenfelter for 36 yds to the Army 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
62.9%
Tyson Riley run for no gain to the Army 48Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
63.0%
Markel Johnson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 8
50
+4
63.0%
Maurice Bellan run for 4 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q2 8:42
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
60.7%
Billy Boehlke punt for 16 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6FUMBLE
1 play · -8 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-8
62.8%
Tez Johnson run for a loss of 8 yards to the Troy 22 Tez Johnson fumbled, recovered by Army Jimmy CiarloSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 7FUMBLE
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
58.7%
Tyhier Tyler run for 6 yds to the Troy 16 Tyhier Tyler fumbled, recovered by Troy Dell PettusSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:3662% → 59%
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
62.4%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the Troy 19Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+10
62.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 10 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
62.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
62.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
61.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:40
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
59.1%
Mike Rivers punt for 46 yds, downed at the Army 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 9FG
19 plays · 66 yds · 6:3442% → 55%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
58.4%
Tyhier Tyler run for 9 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
57.5%
Tyson Riley run for 6 yds to the Army 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
56.9%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+14
56.9%
Tyhier Tyler run for 14 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
56.5%
Tyson Riley run for 7 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+5
56.3%
Tyhier Tyler run for 5 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
56.2%
Tyhier Tyler run for 5 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+4
56.1%
Tyhier Tyler run for 4 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
49.9%
Tyhier Tyler run for 5 yds to the Troy 17Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+2
50.4%
Tyhier Tyler run for 2 yds to the Troy 15Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+4
50.9%
Braheam Murphy run for 4 yds to the Troy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+1
50.9%
Tyhier Tyler run for 1 yd to the Troy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
47.2%
Tyhier Tyler run for 2 yds to the Troy 9Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
47.2%
Jemel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
47.6%
Jemel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+26
45.3%
Quinn Maretzki 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
52.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11FG
13 plays · 76 yds · 4:5450% → 54%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
50.3%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Andre Carter II for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 14Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+17
50.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 17 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
50.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deyunkrea Lewis for 5 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+21
51.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 21 yds to the Army 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
53.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+9
53.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 9 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+9
53.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Clayton Ollendieck for 9 yds to the Army 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
54.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+23
54.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deyunkrea Lewis for 23 yds to the Army 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
54.7%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 4Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
54.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
53.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
54.0%
Brooks Buce 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 4:0551% → 56%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
49.3%
Ay'Jaun Marshall run for 11 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
48.0%
Tyson Riley run for 7 yds to the Army 43Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+7
46.9%
Tyhier Tyler run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
50
+5
46.2%
Markel Johnson run for 5 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+3
46.2%
Tyson Riley run for 3 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 2
OPP 42
0
46.4%
Tyhier Tyler run for no gain to the Troy 42Similar
Q3 6:01
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
43.8%
Billy Boehlke punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:4148% → 43%
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
48.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+7
48.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 7 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
48.9%
Jarris Williams run for 4 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
50.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 6
OWN 34
-10
47.9%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Kwabena Bonsu for a loss of 10 yards to the Troy 24Similar
Q3 3:20
4TH & 16
OWN 24
+7
43.2%
Mike Rivers punt for 41 yds , Cameron Jones returns for 7 yds to the Army 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 2:5461% → 60%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
38.7%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 11 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-15
38.0%
BUCHANAN, Jakobi rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the TRO45 (STRINGER, Jordan;MARTIAL, Carlton). PENALTY AWP Block below the waist on MURPHY, Braheam enforced 15 yards from the TRO47 to the AWP38. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 25
OWN 38
+3
38.3%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 3 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 22
OWN 41
-4
38.8%
Tyhier Tyler sacked by TJ Harris and T.J. Jackson for a loss of 4 yards to the Army 37Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 26
OWN 37
+4
40.4%
Tyson Riley run for 4 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q3 0:26
4TH & 22
OWN 41
0
40.1%
Billy Boehlke punt for 13 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15INT
7 plays · 47 yds · 2:3750% → 50%
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
49.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+11
47.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 11 yds to the Army 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
50.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 15 yds to the Army 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+19
53.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 19 yds to the Army 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
53.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the Army 7Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
53.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
49.5%
Gunnar Watson pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2665% → 63%
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
35.5%
Tyson Riley run for 3 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
34.8%
ARMY Penalty, Holding Intentional Grounding on TYLER, Tyhier enforced at the spot of the foul for a result of a (Connor Finucane) declinedSimilar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 17
OWN 13
+7
36.9%
Tyson Riley run for 7 yds to the Army 20Similar
Q4 11:23
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
36.7%
Billy Boehlke punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 3:1944% → 71%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+21
43.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 21 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
45.9%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the Army 36Similar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+20
45.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 20 yds to the Army 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
48.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 11 yds to the Army 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
48.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
48.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the Army 3Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
45.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
70.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 3 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 31 yds · 2:4736% → 39%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
63.8%
Ay'Jaun Marshall run for 28 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
58.5%
Tyhier Tyler run for 4 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+2
58.6%
Tyson Riley run for 2 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 4
OPP 41
-3
59.2%
Tyhier Tyler run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 5:17
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
61.2%
Billy Boehlke punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 3:0767% → 71%
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+16
66.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 16 yds to the Troy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
67.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 11 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
68.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 4
OWN 40
-1
71.5%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 39Similar
Q4 5:17
3RD & 5
OWN 39
-20
69.0%
WATSON, Gunnar pass to the left complete for 30 yards to JOHNSON, Tez caught at the AWP31 and advanced to the AWP31, out of bounds. PENALTY TRO Unnecessary Roughness on BUTLER, Deandre enforced 20 yards from the TRO39 to the TRO19 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:17
3RD & 20
OWN 24
+9
66.8%
Gunnar Watson run for 9 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q4 2:10
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
70.8%
punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 20MISSED FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 1:5532% → 33%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
67.7%
Tyhier Tyler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
68.5%
Tyhier Tyler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+16
69.8%
Tyhier Tyler pass complete to Braheam Murphy for 16 yds to the Army 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
64.3%
Tyson Riley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 42Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+24
67.1%
Jemel Jones pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 24 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
56.5%
Tyson Riley run for 1 yd to the Troy 33Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+2
56.7%
Tyson Riley run for 2 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+6
59.6%
Jemel Jones pass complete to Braheam Murphy for 6 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q4 0:15
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+42
67.3%
Quinn Maretzki 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.3%
[SG] Kneel down by WATSON, Gunnar at TRO24 (team loss of 1).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:04
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 3 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)
+24.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:15
[SG] Kneel down by WATSON, Gunnar at TRO24 (team loss of 1).
+22.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 12:49
Tyson Riley run for 3 yds to the Army 23
-14
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com