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AF

Air Force 13 at Army 7

ARMY
2022 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2022 · Dignity Health Sports Park
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:05 · Billy Boehlke punt for 47 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 132Pregame prior−1.7Home team on offense−14.1Garbage-time factor−10.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.0Score differential−3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:32: Haaziq Daniels run for 17 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +16.5 pts (now 69%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 12:06: Matthew Dapore 26 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +10.5 pts (now 76%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:06: Ay'Jaun Marshall run for 2 yds to the Army 23 — ARMY win probability +9.4 pts (now 34%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:13: Jemel Jones run for 3 yds to the Army 22 — ARMY win probability +9.2 pts (now 27%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:38: Jemel Jones run for 7 yds to the Army 31 — ARMY win probability +8.4 pts (now 14%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 9 of 10AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 11:44AF 4th & 11 at AF 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:08ARMY 4th & 6 at ARMY 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:38AF 4th & 10 at AF 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:38AF 4th & 10 at AF 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:25ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.7%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:19AF 4th & 9 at ARMY 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    59.4%−2.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:37ARMY 4th & 10 at ARMY 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:55AF 4th & 7 at ARMY 32, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.7%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:18ARMY 4th & 7 at AF 45, up 4
    Close callPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    49.1%−0.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:20ARMY 4th & 14 at ARMY 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−2.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:54ARMY 4th & 22 at ARMY 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−6.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:06AF 4th & 9 at ARMY 9, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−2.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    46.5%−16.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:59ARMY 4th & 9 at ARMY 26, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:13AF 4th & 4 at ARMY 37, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    79.0%−2.5
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%−3.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:05ARMY 4th & 15 at ARMY 14, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:38AF 4th & 6 at ARMY 46, up 6
    Close callPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    88.4%−1.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:38ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 33, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.7%−7.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:19ARMY 4th & 2 at ARMY 44, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.9%−5.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1AF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 6:24ARMY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:32AF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:1674% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.0%
Brad Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
26.0%
Zac Larrier run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+16
26.0%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to David Cormier for 16 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
26.0%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
26.0%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to David CormierSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+6
26.0%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Zac Larrier for 6 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 11:44
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
27.7%
Carson Bay punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 4:3628% → 30%
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
27.6%
Tyhier Tyler run for 5 yds to the Army 18Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+3
27.6%
Jemel Jones run for 3 yds to the Army 21Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+3
27.5%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 3 yds to the Army 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
27.6%
Jemel Jones run for 1 yd to the Army 25Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+6
27.6%
Tyson Riley run for 6 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+3
27.6%
Jemel Jones run for 3 yds to the Army 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
27.7%
Jemel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
27.6%
Jemel Jones run for 4 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
27.6%
Jemel Jones pass incomplete to Maurice BellanSimilar
Q1 7:08
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
29.5%
Billy Boehlke punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Amari Terry at the AFA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:3070% → 69%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
29.6%
Brad Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
30.2%
John Lee Eldridge III run for no gain to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 6:27
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
30.4%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to John Lee Eldridge IIISimilar
Q1 5:38
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
31.1%
Carson Bay punt for 45 ydsSimilar
Q1 5:38
4TH & 10
OWN 27
+45
31.1%
Carson Bay punt blocked by Jackson Powell blocked by Jackson PowellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:1331% → 32%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
30.9%
Jemel Jones run for 3 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+3
30.9%
Jemel Jones run for 3 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+3
30.7%
Tyson Riley run for 3 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q1 3:25
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
31.8%
Jakobi Buchanan run for no gain to the Army 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5FG
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:0669% → 69%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
30.6%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+15
30.8%
Brad Roberts run for 15 yds to the Army 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
30.8%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Army 16Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 7
OPP 16
0
30.8%
Brad Roberts run for no gain to the Army 16Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+2
31.1%
DeAndre Hughes run for 2 yds to the Army 18Similar
Q1 0:19
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+35
31.5%
Matthew Dapore 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:4232% → 32%
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
32.1%
PENALTY AWP False Start (Filipowicz,Jackson) 5 yards from AWP25 to AWP20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:19
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-5
32.0%
PENALTY AWP False Start (Lingenfelter,Joshua) 5 yards from AWP20 to AWP15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+9
32.1%
Jemel Jones run for 9 yds to the Army 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
32.1%
Jemel Jones run for 2 yds to the Army 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-1
31.7%
Jemel Jones sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 25Similar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
31.9%
Billy Boehlke punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Eian Castonguay at the AFA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7MISSED FG
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:4268% → 67%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
31.9%
Haaziq Daniels run for 8 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+10
31.1%
Brad Roberts run for 10 yds to the Army 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
30.8%
Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+5
30.6%
Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds to the Army 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
30.5%
Omar Fattah run for 3 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
30.5%
Zac Larrier run for no gain to the Army 32Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
30.8%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Zac LarrierSimilar
Q2 9:55
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+49
32.8%
Matthew Dapore 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 3:3134% → 46%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
34.4%
Tyson Riley run for 3 yds to the Army 35Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+24
34.5%
Jemel Jones pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 24 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+31
36.3%
Jemel Jones pass complete to Ay'Jaun Marshall for 31 yds to the AFA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
37.3%
Jemel Jones run for 3 yds to the AFA 7Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
37.3%
Jemel Jones run for 4 yds to the AFA 3Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
45.6%
Jemel Jones run for 3 yds for a TD, (Quinn Maretzki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9INT
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:4954% → 55%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
45.7%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
45.6%
Haaziq Daniels run for 12 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
44.2%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to David Cormier for 16 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
42.9%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon EngelSimilar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
43.1%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
45.5%
Haaziq Daniels pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 2:1747% → 47%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
47.2%
Jemel Jones pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 10 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
48.1%
Jemel Jones run for 3 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
48.1%
Jemel Jones run for no gain to the AFA 45Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
47.7%
Jemel Jones pass incomplete to Cole CaterboneSimilar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
46.9%
Billy Boehlke punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:1849% → 49%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
51.1%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 7Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+8
51.5%
Haaziq Daniels run for 8 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
51.4%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:3547% → 46%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
47.2%
Jemel Jones run for 5 yds to the Army 19Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 15
OWN 19
+1
46.7%
Jemel Jones run for 1 yd to the Army 20Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 14
OWN 20
0
45.4%
Jemel Jones pass incomplete to Isaiah AlstonSimilar
Q3 13:20
4TH & 14
OWN 20
+4
45.7%
Billy Boehlke punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 35 , Amari Terry returns for 4 yds to the AFA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:4853% → 69%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
46.7%
Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
44.4%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
47.9%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+3
47.2%
Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+12
47.7%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to David Cormier for 27 yds to the Army 19 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, Personal Foul (Everett Smalley) to the Army 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
45.8%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
45.7%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon EngelSimilar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+14
47.5%
Haaziq Daniels run for 14 yds to the Army 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
31.1%
Haaziq Daniels run for 17 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · -2 yds · 3:3838% → 37%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
37.7%
Tyhier Tyler run for 8 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
40.3%
Tyhier Tyler run for 1 yd to the Army 34Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
38.9%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 1 yd to the Army 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
38.2%
Jemel Jones sacked by Trey Taylor for a loss of 15 yards to the Army 20Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 25
OWN 20
+3
37.3%
Tyson Riley run for 3 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 22
OWN 23
0
36.0%
Jemel Jones pass incomplete to Isaiah AlstonSimilar
Q3 5:54
4TH & 22
OWN 23
0
36.5%
Billy Boehlke punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Amari Terry at the AFA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15FG
19 plays · 58 yds · 8:4865% → 76%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
35.4%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+3
33.6%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+5
34.0%
Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST down ARMY Penalty, Illegal Substitution ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
33.5%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to David CormierSimilar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+11
33.9%
Haaziq Daniels run for 11 yds to the Army 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
33.0%
PENALTY AFA False Start (Rillos,Caleb) 5 yards from AWP43 to AWP48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+8
33.9%
Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+15
33.0%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Amari Terry for 15 yds to the Army 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
31.7%
Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the Army 19Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+6
31.6%
Haaziq Daniels run for 6 yds to the Army 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
31.6%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Army 9Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+2
31.7%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Army 7Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+6
33.3%
Haaziq Daniels run for 6 yds to the Army 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
31.7%
PENALTY AFA False Start (Karas,Adam) 5 yards from AWP01 to AWP06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
31.7%
PENALTY AFA False Start (Karas,Adam) 5 yards from AWP06 to AWP11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+3
31.7%
Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the Army 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+2
32.1%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the Army 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
+7
34.8%
Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the Army 9Similar
Q4 12:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
24.3%
Matthew Dapore 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:0734% → 28%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
33.5%
Ay'Jaun Marshall run for 2 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
33.2%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 5 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+2
31.9%
Jemel Jones run for 2 yds to the Army 26Similar
Q4 9:59
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
27.9%
Billy Boehlke punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Amari Terry at the AFA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 3:4677% → 82%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
22.7%
Daniels,Haaziq pass incomplete short left to Cormier,David PENALTY AFA Holding (Karas,Adam) 10 yards from AFA31 to AFA21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 20
OWN 21
+6
24.0%
Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 14
OWN 27
+30
24.3%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to David Cormier for 30 yds to the Army 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
20.1%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+2
20.0%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Army 36Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 3
OPP 36
-1
20.3%
Haaziq Daniels sacked by Leo Lowin for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 37Similar
Q4 6:13
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
18.2%
Carson Bay punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 2:0827% → 21%
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
27.4%
Jemel Jones run for 3 yds to the Army 22Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+2
27.1%
Tyson Riley run for 2 yds to the Army 24Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 5
OWN 24
-5
25.8%
PENALTY AWP False Start (Buckingham,Shayne) 5 yards from AWP24 to AWP19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 10
OWN 19
-5
25.4%
PENALTY AWP False Start (Lingenfelter,Joshua) 5 yards from AWP19 to AWP14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 15
OWN 14
0
25.4%
Jemel Jones pass incomplete to Ay'Jaun MarshallSimilar
Q4 4:05
4TH & 15
OWN 14
0
21.4%
Billy Boehlke punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 2:2786% → 94%
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
14.3%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+4
14.1%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
14.5%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
50
+5
13.4%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+2
6.5%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Army 43Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+3
6.3%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q4 1:38
4TH & 6
OPP 46
+9
5.9%
Carson Bay punt for 31 yds , Cameron Jones returns for 9 yds to the Army 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 20INT
9 plays · 20 yds · 1:1914% → 10%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
14.2%
Jemel Jones run for 7 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 3
OWN 31
0
15.8%
Jemel Jones pass incomplete to Braheam MurphySimilar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+2
13.7%
Jemel Jones pass complete to Tyson Riley for 2 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q4 1:38
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+3
13.5%
Tyson Riley run for 3 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
12.4%
Jemel Jones pass incomplete to Veshe DaniyanSimilar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
12.3%
Jemel Jones run for 8 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
13.4%
Jemel Jones pass incomplete to Braheam MurphySimilar
Q4 0:19
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
9.8%
Jemel Jones pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
4.6%
run for 1 yd to the AFA 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:32
Haaziq Daniels run for 17 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)
-16.5
FG · Q4 12:06
Matthew Dapore 26 yd FG GOOD
-10.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 12:06
Ay'Jaun Marshall run for 2 yds to the Army 23
+9.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com