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ARMY

Army 10 at Wake Forest 45

WAKE
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of GameFG—WAKE 99.9%Quinn Maretzki 33 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 45 · Q4 2:56
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:56 · Quinn Maretzki 33 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Pregame prior+2.4Home team on offense+35.6Score differential+30.1Blowout margin+17.1Garbage-time factor+11.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:08: Christian Turner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +0.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:20: Justice Ellison run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +2.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:37: Quinton Cooley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +5.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:30: Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 26 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +2.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 2:10: Matthew Dennis 38 yd FG GOOD — WAKE win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 5ARMY made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 8:08ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:58ARMY 4th & 5 at ARMY 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:19ARMY 4th & 6 at WAKE 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    13.0%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    12.6%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:31WAKE 4th & 3 at ARMY 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    87.8%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:41ARMY 4th & 10 at ARMY 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:37WAKE 4th & 1 at ARMY 1, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    86.7%−1.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    83.5%−4.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:48ARMY 4th & 13 at WAKE 25, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:48ARMY 4th & 6 at ARMY 24, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:10WAKE 4th & 6 at ARMY 20, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:22WAKE 4th & 3 at WAKE 24, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:22ARMY 4th & 2 at midfield, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:42ARMY 4th & 16 at ARMY 46, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:56ARMY 4th & 9 at WAKE 16, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:25WAKE 4th & 5 at ARMY 38, up 35
    Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    100.0%
    38% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ARMY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:08WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:20WAKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:37WAKE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:30WAKE Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:29WAKE Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:53ARMY Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:21WAKE Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARMYDrive 1FUMBLE
8 plays · 66 yds · 4:1211% → 12%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.2%
Hayden Reed run for 4 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+47
89.2%
Tyhier Tyler pass complete to Tyrell Robinson for 47 yds to the WFrst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
89.2%
ARMY Penalty, False Start (Joshua Lingenfelter) to the WFrst 29Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 29
-5
89.2%
ARMY Penalty, False Start (Connor Finucane) to the WFrst 34Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 34
+9
89.2%
Tyhier Tyler pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 9 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+7
89.2%
Tyhier Tyler run for 7 yds to the WFrst 18Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+5
89.2%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 5 yds to the WFrst 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
87.7%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 4 yds to the WFrst 9 Jakobi Buchanan fumbled, recovered by WFrst Chase JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2TD
9 plays · 91 yds · 2:4088% → 89%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
88.0%
Justice Ellison run for 2 yds to the WFrst 11Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+5
88.0%
Sam Hartman run for 5 yds to the WFrst 16Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+7
87.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 7 yds to the WFrst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
88.0%
Justice Ellison run for 5 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+14
88.0%
Christian Turner run for 14 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+46
88.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 46 yds to the Army 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
88.3%
Christian Turner run for 5 yds to the Army 7Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+6
88.3%
Christian Turner run for 6 yds to the Army 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.7%
Christian Turner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 4:1012% → 12%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
88.2%
ARMY Penalty, False Start (Joshua Lingenfelter) to the Army 1Similar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 11
OWN 1
+3
88.2%
Hayden Reed run for 3 yds to the Army 4Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+3
88.3%
Hayden Reed run for 3 yds to the Army 7Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 5
OWN 7
+4
88.4%
Tyhier Tyler run for 4 yds to the Army 11Similar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 1
OWN 11
+1
88.5%
Tyhier Tyler run for 1 yd to the Army 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
88.3%
Tyhier Tyler pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+4
88.3%
Tyhier Tyler run for 4 yds to the Army 16Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+1
88.4%
Hayden Reed run for 1 yd to the Army 17Similar
Q1 3:58
4TH & 5
OWN 17
0
88.0%
Billy Boehlke punt for 39 yds, downed at the WFrst 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 1:3888% → 90%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+18
88.2%
Justice Ellison run for 18 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
88.2%
Sam Hartman run for 6 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+14
88.3%
Justice Ellison run for 14 yds to the Army 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
88.3%
Justice Ellison run for 15 yds to the Army 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
90.3%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 5DOWNS
12 plays · 42 yds · 6:0111% → 11%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.3%
Tyrell Robinson run for 5 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
89.2%
Cade Ballard run for 11 yds to the Army 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
89.1%
Cade Ballard run for 6 yds to the Army 47Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+1
88.9%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 1 yd to the Army 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+4
88.9%
Cade Ballard run for 4 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
88.9%
Hayden Reed run for 1 yd to the WFrst 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+7
88.9%
Tyrell Robinson run for 7 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+2
88.8%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
88.9%
Cade Ballard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
88.9%
Tyrell Robinson run for 4 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
88.9%
Cade Ballard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:19
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+1
89.1%
Cade Ballard pass complete to Tyrell Robinson for 1 yd to the WFrst 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6DOWNS
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:4890% → 90%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
90.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 7 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+4
90.6%
Christian Turner run for 4 yds to the WFrst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
90.7%
Christian Turner run for 2 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
90.6%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+5
90.3%
Sam Hartman run for 5 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q2 9:31
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
90.2%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:5011% → 10%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
89.0%
Cade Ballard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
89.2%
Hayden Reed run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 9
50
-5
89.2%
ARMY Penalty, False Start (Braheam Murphy) to the Army 45Similar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 14
OWN 45
+4
89.5%
Cade Ballard run for 4 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q2 7:41
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
89.7%
Billy Boehlke punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8TD
14 plays · 82 yds · 5:0490% → 96%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
90.0%
Justice Ellison run for 11 yds to the WFrst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
90.0%
Sam Hartman run for 4 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+6
90.1%
Justice Ellison run for 6 yds to the WFrst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
90.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 15 yds to the Army 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
90.5%
Justice Ellison run for 9 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+5
90.5%
Justice Ellison run for 5 yds to the Army 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
90.5%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+17
90.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 17 yds to the Army 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
90.5%
Sam Hartman run for 2 yds to the Army 8Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
90.5%
Sam Hartman sacked by Peyton Hampton for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 9Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
90.3%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (DeVonte Gordon) to the Army 14Similar
Q2 2:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+13
89.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 13 yds to the Army 1Similar
Q2 2:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.8%
Quinton Cooley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 9INT
12 plays · 55 yds · 2:335% → 6%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.1%
Tyhier Tyler run for 3 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
94.9%
Hayden Reed run for 3 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q2 2:37
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+11
94.9%
Tyhier Tyler pass complete to Tyhier Tyler for 11 yds to the Army 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-8
94.8%
Tyhier Tyler sacked by Chase Jones and Dylan Hazen for a loss of 8 yards to the Army 34Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 18
OWN 34
+12
95.2%
Tyrell Robinson run for 12 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q2 2:37
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+7
94.9%
Tyrell Robinson run for 7 yds to the WFrst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
94.6%
Tyhier Tyler run for 4 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+9
94.9%
Tyhier Tyler run for 9 yds to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
94.7%
Cade Ballard pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 6 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+8
94.5%
Cade Ballard pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 8 yds to the WFrst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
94.5%
Cade Ballard pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
97.0%
[NHSG] Kneel down by WFU at WFU38 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 11TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3096% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
96.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 11 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
96.4%
ARMY Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Kwabena Bonsu) to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
96.5%
Sam Hartman run for 11 yds to the Army 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
96.5%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+8
96.5%
Justice Ellison run for 8 yds to the Army 26Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+26
99.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 26 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12MISSED FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 6:421% → 1%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.2%
Tyrell Robinson run for 4 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
99.0%
Hayden Reed run for 4 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+12
99.0%
Tyhier Tyler run for 12 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
99.1%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 1 yd to the Army 46Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+20
99.1%
Ay'Jaun Marshall run for 20 yds to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
99.0%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 3 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+1
99.0%
Hayden Reed run for 1 yd to the WFrst 30Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+8
99.0%
Tyhier Tyler run for 8 yds to the WFrst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
99.0%
Braheam Murphy run for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 27Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 15
OPP 27
+7
99.1%
Ay'Jaun Marshall run for 7 yds to the WFrst 20Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 8
OPP 20
-5
99.1%
Tyhier Tyler run for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 25Similar
Q3 6:48
4TH & 13
OPP 25
+42
99.4%
Quinn Maretzki 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:19100% → 100%
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
99.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 24 yds to the WFrst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
99.6%
Christian Turner run for 10 yds to the Army 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+37
99.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 37 yds to the Army 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.7%
Christian Turner run for 4 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.7%
Tyhier Tyler run for 1 yd to the Army 21Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
99.7%
Tyhier Tyler pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:23
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+3
99.7%
Hayden Reed run for 3 yds to the Army 24Similar
Q3 3:48
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
99.8%
Billy Boehlke punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 15FG
7 plays · 45 yds · 1:38100% → 100%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.7%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the WFrst 38Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+8
99.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaeger Bull for 8 yds to the WFrst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+30
99.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 30 yds to the Army 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
99.7%
Quinton Cooley run for 4 yds to the Army 20Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 6
OPP 20
0
99.7%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
99.7%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:10
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+38
99.8%
Matthew Dennis 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 3:110% → 0%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.8%
Jemel Jones pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 5 yds to the Army 35Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+25
99.8%
Jemel Jones run for 25 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
99.8%
Miles Stewart run for 7 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+4
99.8%
Jemel Jones run for 4 yds to the WFrst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
99.8%
Jemel Jones run for 5 yds to the WFrst 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+4
99.8%
Jarel Dickson run for 4 yds to the WFrst 20Similar
Q4 13:53
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+20
99.8%
Jemel Jones pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 20 yds for a TD, (Quinn Maretzki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:26100% → 100%
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
99.8%
Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the WFrst 19Similar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+5
99.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 5 yds to the WFrst 24Similar
Q4 13:48
3RD & 3
OWN 24
0
99.8%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:22
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
99.8%
Ivan Mora punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18DOWNS
9 plays · -1 yds · 3:400% → 0%
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
99.9%
Jemel Jones pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 2
50
+1
99.9%
Markel Johnson run for 1 yd to the WFrst 49Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 1
OPP 49
-5
99.9%
ARMY Penalty, False Start (Connor Bishop) to the Army 46Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+4
99.9%
Jarel Dickson run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:22
4TH & 2
50
+2
99.9%
Jarel Dickson run for 2 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-6
99.9%
Jemel Jones sacked by Kendron Wayman and Rondell Bothroyd for a loss of 6 yards to the Army 46Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 16
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Jemel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 16
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Jemel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:42
4TH & 16
OWN 46
-5
99.9%
Jemel Jones sacked by Kendron Wayman for a loss of 5 yards to the Army 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19TD
8 plays · 41 yds · 4:21100% → 100%
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
99.9%
Mitch Griffis run for 5 yds to the Army 36Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
99.9%
Mitch Griffis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+5
99.9%
Will Towns run for 5 yds to the Army 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
99.9%
Mitch Griffis run for 5 yds to the Army 26Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+8
99.9%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 8 yds to the Army 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
99.9%
Mitch Griffis run for 4 yds to the Army 14Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+1
99.9%
Will Towns run for 1 yd to the Army 13Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+13
99.9%
Wesley Grimes 13 Yd pass from Mitch Griffis (Zach Murphy Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 20FG
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:200% → 0%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+67
100.0%
Jemel Jones pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 67 yds to the WFrst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
99.9%
Jemel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+1
99.9%
Jemel Jones run for 1 yd to the WFrst 16Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 9
OPP 16
0
99.9%
Jemel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+33
99.9%
Quinn Maretzki 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:31100% → 100%
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
99.9%
Demond Claiborne run for 3 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Demond Claiborne run for no gain to the Army 40Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+2
99.9%
Demond Claiborne run for 2 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q4 0:25
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+4
100.0%
Demond Claiborne run for 4 yds to the Army 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:250% → 0%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
100.0%
Ay'Jaun Marshall run for 17 yds to the WFrst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
100.0%
Jemel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:37
Quinton Cooley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)
+5.9
TD · Q3 13:30
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 26 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)
+2.5
TD · Q1 2:20
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)
+2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com