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VILL

Villanova 10 at Army 49

ARMY
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Michie Stadium
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadVILL aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreVILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+4.4ARMY 87.1%C. Ballard run for 6 yds for a TD, (Q.Maretzki KICK)AWAY 7 - HOME 21 · Q2 5:12
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:12 · C. Ballard run for 6 yds for a TD, (Q. Maretzki KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 61Pregame prior+21.0Home team on offense+10.8Score differential+5.2Garbage-time factor+2.6Blowout margin−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:27: C. Watkins pass,to R. Pringle for 5 yds for a TD, (M. Mercurio KICK) — VILL win probability +3.2 pts (now 21%) (top driver: VILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:12: C. Ballard run for 6 yds for a TD, (Q. Maretzki KICK) — ARMY win probability +4.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:11: T. Riley run for 70 yds for a TD, (Q. Maretzki KICK) — ARMY win probability +6.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:56: T. Tyler run for 3 yds for a TD, (Q. Maretzki KICK) — ARMY win probability +2.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:53: W. Bartel punt for 44 yds,T. Robinson returns for 73 yds for a TD, (Q. Maretzki KICK) — ARMY win probability +2.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: VILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 6 of 7VILL made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:05VILL 4th & 3 at VILL 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:50VILL 4th & 6 at ARMY 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    17.7%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:23ARMY 4th & 3 at VILL 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    79.8%−0.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    79.9%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:56ARMY 4th & 8 at ARMY 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:25ARMY 4th & 8 at ARMY 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:12ARMY 4th & 1 at VILL 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.9%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    80.4%−1.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    77.0%−4.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:11VILL 4th & 21 at VILL 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−0.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:15ARMY 4th & 6 at VILL 46, up 14
    Close callPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    88.1%
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.9%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:27VILL 4th & 10 at ARMY 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−2.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:53VILL 4th & 25 at VILL 29, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:07VILL 4th & 2 at VILL 33, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:43VILL 4th & 8 at ARMY 44, down 32
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:43ARMY 4th & 1 at VILL 34, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:29VILL 4th & 15 at VILL 20, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:54VILL 4th & 15 at VILL 20, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:16ARMY 4th & 26 at ARMY 29, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 7 of 7VILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:50ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:27VILL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:20ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:12ARMY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:11ARMY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:56ARMY Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:53ARMY Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:29ARMY Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VILLDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5517% → 17%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
83.4%
Connor Watkins pass complete to Rayjoun Pringle for 5 yds to the Villa 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
83.4%
Connor Watkins pass complete to Dee Wil Barlee for no gain to the Villa 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
83.4%
Connor Watkins pass complete to Jaaron Hayek for 2 yds to the Villa 32Similar
Q1 13:05
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
83.0%
William Bartel punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Robinson at the Army 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 2:1583% → 83%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
82.9%
Tyhier Tyler run for 1 yd to the Army 33Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+55
82.9%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 55 yds to the Villa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
83.1%
Tyhier Tyler run for 4 yds to the Villa 8Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+1
83.1%
Tyson Riley run for 1 yd to the Villa 7Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+7
83.4%
T. Tyler run for 7 yds for a TD, (Q. Maretzki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 3TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:2317% → 21%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.1%
Dee Wil Barlee run for 3 yds to the Villa 28Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
83.1%
Connor Watkins pass incomplete to Jaaron HayekSimilar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
83.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Watkins,Connor pass incomplete short middle to Pringle,Rayjuon PENALTY AWP Pass Interference (Broughton,Marquel) 15 yards from VIL28 to VIL43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
83.0%
Dee Wil Barlee run for 16 yds to the Army 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
82.9%
Dee Wil Barlee run for 3 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
82.9%
Connor Watkins pass incomplete to TD Ayo-DurojaiyeSimilar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 7
OPP 38
-5
82.9%
PENALTY VIL False Start (Corbi,Michael) 5 yards from AWP38 to AWP43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+6
83.0%
Connor Watkins pass complete to Jalen Jackson for 6 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q1 10:50
4TH & 6
OPP 37
+17
83.0%
Connor Watkins run for 17 yds to the Army 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
82.7%
Jalen Jackson run for 4 yds to the Army 16Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+7
82.7%
Jalen Jackson run for 7 yds to the Army 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
82.7%
Jalen Jackson run for 4 yds to the Army 5Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
79.5%
C. Watkins pass,to R. Pringle for 5 yds for a TD, (M. Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 4:0381% → 83%
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
80.6%
ARMY Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Army 28Similar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 16
OWN 28
+23
80.5%
Tyrell Robinson run for 23 yds to the Villa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
81.1%
Tyson Riley run for 1 yd to the Villa 48Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+2
81.1%
Tyhier Tyler run for 2 yds to the Villa 46Similar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+4
81.0%
Tyhier Tyler run for 4 yds to the Villa 42Similar
Q1 5:23
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+18
80.7%
Braheam Murphy run for 18 yds to the Villa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
81.3%
Tyson Riley run for 1 yd to the Villa 23Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+23
83.2%
T. Tyler run for 23 yds for a TD, (Q. Maretzki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 5INT
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:2418% → 19%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
82.1%
Connor Watkins run for 20 yds to the Villa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
81.6%
Connor Watkins pass complete to Rayjoun Pringle for 7 yds to the Army 48Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+4
81.2%
TD Ayo-Durojaiye run for 4 yds to the Army 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+4
80.9%
TD Ayo-Durojaiye run for 4 yds to the Army 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
81.0%
Connor Watkins run for 6 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+12
80.9%
TD Ayo-Durojaiye run for 12 yds to the Army 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
80.5%
PENALTY VIL Delay Of Game 5 yards from AWP26 to AWP31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 31
+1
80.9%
Dee Wil Barlee run for 1 yd to the Army 30Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 14
OPP 30
0
80.8%
Connor Watkins pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3182% → 81%
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
82.0%
Tyson Riley run for 1 yd to the Army 8Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+1
81.9%
Tyson Riley run for 1 yd to the Army 9Similar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 8
OWN 9
0
81.6%
Cade Ballard pass incomplete to Isaiah AlstonSimilar
Q2 12:56
4TH & 8
OWN 9
0
81.2%
Billy Boehlke punt for 43 ydsSimilar
Q2 11:25
4TH & 8
OWN 9
0
81.0%
Billy Boehlke punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 7INT
4 plays · 30 yds · 1:3119% → 21%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+25
81.1%
Connor Watkins pass complete to Rayjoun Pringle for 25 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
80.4%
Jalen Jackson run for 5 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
79.7%
Connor Watkins pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
79.5%
Connor Watkins pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 4:4282% → 87%
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
82.0%
Tyrell Robinson run for 10 yds to the Army 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
82.1%
Tyson Riley run for 9 yds to the Army 39Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+35
82.9%
Tyson Riley run for 35 yds to the Villa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
83.1%
Cade Ballard run for 8 yds to the Villa 18Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+3
83.1%
Hayden Reed run for 3 yds to the Villa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
83.1%
Tyson Riley run for 6 yds to the Villa 9Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+3
83.1%
Tyson Riley run for 3 yds to the Villa 6Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 1
OPP 6
0
82.7%
Tyson Riley run for no gain to the Villa 6Similar
Q2 5:12
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+6
87.1%
C. Ballard run for 6 yds for a TD, (Q. Maretzki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 3:0113% → 13%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.6%
TD Ayo-Durojaiye run for 2 yds to the Villa 27Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
86.5%
TD Ayo-Durojaiye run for 7 yds to the Villa 34Similar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+15
86.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Watkins,Connor pass incomplete short middle to Hayek,Jaaron PENALTY AWP Pass Interference (Nicolas-Paul,Bo) 15 yards from VIL34 to VIL49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
85.9%
Jalen Jackson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 9
50
+1
86.0%
Jalen Jackson run for 1 yd to the Army 49Similar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 8
OPP 49
-13
86.3%
Connor Watkins sacked by Brett Gerena for a loss of 13 yards to the Villa 38Similar
Q2 2:11
4TH & 21
OWN 38
+13
87.1%
William Bartel punt for 39 yds , Tyrell Robinson returns for 13 yds to the Army 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 40 yds · 1:5687% → 88%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
86.7%
Tyson Riley run for 4 yds to the Army 18Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+32
86.7%
Tyrell Robinson run for 32 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
50
+1
87.7%
Tyson Riley run for 1 yd to the Villa 49Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+4
87.6%
Cade Ballard run for 4 yds to the Villa 45Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+1
87.1%
Tyson Riley run for 1 yd to the Villa 46Similar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
88.1%
Billy Boehlke punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
88.2%
Connor Watkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Villa 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12TD
5 plays · 76 yds · 1:4389% → 96%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
89.1%
Tyson Riley run for 7 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+4
89.3%
Tyrell Robinson run for 4 yds to the Army 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
89.2%
PENALTY AWP False Start (Finucane,Connor) 5 yards from AWP35 to AWP30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+70
95.7%
T. Riley run for 70 yds for a TD, (Q. Maretzki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 13FG
15 plays · 50 yds · 4:385% → 7%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
95.1%
Dee Wil Barlee run for 11 yds to the Villa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
94.9%
Dee Wil Barlee run for 2 yds to the Villa 40Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+9
94.8%
Connor Watkins pass complete to Jaaron Hayek for 9 yds to the Villa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
94.8%
Connor Watkins pass incomplete to Rayjoun PringleSimilar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
94.8%
Jalen Jackson run for 7 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+6
94.6%
Connor Watkins pass complete to Rayjoun Pringle for 6 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
94.7%
Connor Watkins pass incomplete to TD Ayo-DurojaiyeSimilar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+15
94.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Watkins,Connor pass incomplete short right to Hayek,Jaaron broken up by Ciarlo,Jimmy QB hurried by Bonsu,Kwabena PENALTY AWP Roughing The Passer (Bonsu,Kwabena) 15 yards from AWP38 to AWP23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
94.1%
Jalen Jackson run for no gain to the Army 23Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-5
94.4%
PENALTY VIL False Start (Torres,Nick) 5 yards from AWP23 to AWP28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 15
OPP 28
0
94.6%
Connor Watkins pass incomplete to Dez BoykinSimilar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 15
OPP 28
-5
95.0%
PENALTY VIL False Start (Corbi,Michael) 5 yards from AWP28 to AWP33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 20
OPP 33
+10
95.0%
Connor Watkins run for 10 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q3 8:27
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+40
93.1%
Matthew Mercurio 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 8:3195% → 99%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.9%
Tyhier Tyler run for 5 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
95.0%
Tyson Riley run for 5 yds to the Army 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
95.0%
Tyhier Tyler run for 6 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
95.2%
Tyson Riley run for 3 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+6
95.0%
Tyhier Tyler run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
50
+3
95.2%
Tyson Riley run for 3 yds to the Villa 47Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+4
95.2%
Braheam Murphy run for 4 yds to the Villa 43Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+10
95.1%
Tyhier Tyler run for 10 yds to the Villa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
95.2%
Tyson Riley run for 3 yds to the Villa 30Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+6
95.2%
Tyhier Tyler run for 6 yds to the Villa 24Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+3
95.1%
Tyson Riley run for 3 yds to the Villa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+16
95.8%
Tyrell Robinson run for 16 yds to the Villa 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
96.6%
Tyson Riley run for 2 yds to the Villa 3Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.2%
T. Tyler run for 3 yds for a TD, (Q. Maretzki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 15PUNT TD
7 plays · -15 yds · 1:522% → 0%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
97.7%
Connor Watkins run for 3 yds to the Villa 47Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-15
97.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Watkins,Connor pass incomplete short left to Hayek,Jaaron broken up by Nicolas-Paul,Bo PENALTY VIL Chop Block (Ajirotutu,Temi) 15 yards from VIL47 to VIL32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 22
OWN 32
+7
97.6%
Jalen Jackson run for 7 yds to the Villa 39Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 15
OWN 39
-10
97.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Watkins,Connor rush left for 2 yards gain to the VIL41 (O'Gara,Camden; Moore,Jabari) PENALTY VIL Holding (Petrovcik,James) 10 yards from VIL39 to VIL29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 25
OWN 29
0
97.2%
Connor Watkins pass incomplete to Dez BoykinSimilar
Q4 12:53
4TH & 25
OWN 29
+73
99.8%
W. Bartel punt for 44 yds,T. Robinson returns for 73 yds for a TD, (Q. Maretzki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 16DOWNS
12 plays · 31 yds · 5:100% → 0%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.8%
Connor Watkins pass complete to Rayjoun Pringle for 6 yds to the Villa 31Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Connor Watkins run for no gain to the Villa 31Similar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
99.8%
TD Ayo-Durojaiye run for 2 yds to the Villa 33Similar
Q4 11:07
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+3
99.9%
Jalen Jackson run for 3 yds to the Villa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
99.9%
Connor Watkins sacked by Fabrice Voyne for a loss of 2 yards to the Villa 34Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+20
99.9%
Connor Watkins run for 20 yds to the Army 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
99.9%
Connor Watkins sacked by Kalvyn Crummie for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 47Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+3
99.9%
Connor Watkins pass complete to Jalen Jackson for 3 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Connor Watkins pass complete to TD Ayo-Durojaiye for no gain to the Army 44Similar
Q4 7:43
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Connor Watkins pass incomplete to Jaquan AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 3:14100% → 100%
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
99.9%
Jemel Jones run for 13 yds to the Villa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
99.9%
Hayden Reed run for 2 yds to the Villa 41Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+3
99.9%
Jemel Jones run for 3 yds to the Villa 38Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+4
99.9%
Miles Stewart run for 4 yds to the Villa 34Similar
Q4 7:43
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+10
99.9%
Jemel Jones run for 10 yds to the Villa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
99.9%
H. Reed run for 24 yds for a TD, (T. Gronotte KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
Eli Smith run for 4 yds to the Villa 29Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-10
100.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Smith,Eli rush middle for 3 yards gain to the VIL32 (Tuioti,Jacob) PENALTY VIL Holding (Hummel,Wyatt) 10 yards from VIL29 to VIL19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+1
100.0%
Eli Smith run for 1 yd to the Villa 20Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
100.0%
Matt O'Connor pass incomplete to Tyler WillSimilar
Q4 4:29
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
100.0%
William Bartel punt for 35 ydsSimilar
Q4 2:54
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
100.0%
William Bartel punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -16 yds · 2:38100% → 100%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
100.0%
Daily,Bryson rush right for 0 yards to the AWP45 (Glover,Elijah), out of bounds PENALTY AWP Holding (Cleaver,Blane) 10 yards from AWP45 to AWP35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+3
100.0%
Maurice Bellan run for 3 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 17
OWN 38
-12
100.0%
Bryson Daily sacked by Shane Hartzell for a loss of 12 yards to the Army 26Similar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 29
OWN 26
+3
99.9%
Jarel Dickson run for 3 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q4 0:16
4TH & 26
OWN 29
0
100.0%
Billy Boehlke punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 20END OF GAME
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:160% → 0%
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
100.0%
Eli Smith run for 7 yds to the Villa 39Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
100.0%
Eli Smith run for 7 yds to the Villa 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:11
T. Riley run for 70 yds for a TD, (Q. Maretzki KICK)
+6.5
TD · Q2 5:12
C. Ballard run for 6 yds for a TD, (Q. Maretzki KICK)
+4.4
TD · Q1 5:27
C. Watkins pass,to R. Pringle for 5 yds for a TD, (M. Mercurio KICK)
-3.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com