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Notre Dame 35 at Navy 32

NAVY
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:17 · Riley Riethman punt blocked by Jack Kiser blocked by Jack Kiser
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 74Pregame prior−28.8Home team on offense−14.9Score differential−6.5Garbage-time factor−4.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:49: Xavier Arline run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +4.0 pts (now 14%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:10: Drew Pyne pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 37 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ND win probability +5.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 4:59: Bijan Nichols 26 yd FG GOOD — NAVY win probability +4.0 pts (now 8%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:47: Xavier Arline pass complete to Mark Walker for 23 yds for a TD, (X. Arline Run For Two-point Conversion) — NAVY win probability +12.9 pts (now 16%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:21: Maasai Maynor pass complete to Maquel Haywood for 20 yds for a TD, (V. Terrell Jr. Run For Two-point Conversion) — NAVY win probability +31.5 pts (now 36%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 13:00ND 4th & 1 at ND 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    84.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:10NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 3:44ND 4th & 2 at NAVY 27, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.2%−0.5
    62% to make
    Punt
    78.8%−3.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:17NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 31, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  5. Q3 7:35NAVY 4th & 3 at ND 27, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    4.3%−0.7
    62% to make
    Punt
    -0.7%−5.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 4:59NAVY 4th & 9 at ND 9, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    -2.7%−6.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 2:46ND 4th & 16 at ND 19, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:45NAVY 4th & 11 at NAVY 38, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:56ND 4th & 27 at ND 49, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−2.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:36NAVY 4th & 7 at NAVY 15, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:32ND 4th & 2 at NAVY 45, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    87.9%−2.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:50NAVY 4th & 14 at NAVY 24, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:18ND 4th & 9 at ND 39, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:36ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:28ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:19NAVY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    17.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:27ND Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:49NAVY Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:19ND Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:10ND Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:47NAVY Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    11.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    11.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:21NAVY Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    11.2%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    11.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:0891% → 90%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
8.8%
Drew Pyne run for 4 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+3
9.0%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 3 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+2
9.2%
Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q1 13:00
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+2
9.4%
Mitchell Evans run for 2 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
9.6%
Logan Diggs run for 3 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+21
9.8%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 21 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
9.9%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 4 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-2
9.9%
Logan Diggs run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 30Similar
Q1 10:36
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+30
9.6%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Audric Estime for 30 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:5910% → 11%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
9.9%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
10.0%
Daba Fofana run for 15 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
10.3%
Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+1
10.3%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the Navy 46Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+2
10.5%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q1 7:10
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
10.6%
Riley Riethman punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Matt Salerno at the NDame 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3TD
7 plays · 82 yds · 2:3789% → 91%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
10.8%
Audric Estime run for 2 yds to the NDame 20Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+12
10.8%
Audric Estime run for 12 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
10.7%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 4 yds to the NDame 36Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+5
10.7%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 5 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+6
10.8%
Logan Diggs run for 6 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
10.8%
Pyne, Drew pass incomplete to Thomas, Jayden, PENALTY NAVY roughing passer (Marshall, John) 15 yards to the NAVY38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
9.4%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 38 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0110% → 12%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
10.0%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
9.8%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+34
9.8%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Mark Walker for 34 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
10.4%
Xavier Arline pass incomplete to Maquel HaywoodSimilar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+36
11.9%
Daba Fofana run for 36 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5TD
12 plays · 83 yds · 4:4589% → 91%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
11.5%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NDame 12Similar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 15
OWN 12
+1
11.6%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the NDame 13Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 14
OWN 13
+2
11.8%
Audric Estime run for 2 yds to the NDame 15Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 12
OWN 15
+29
12.2%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Deion Colzie for 29 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
11.4%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Braden Lenzy for no gain to the NDame 44Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
11.6%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Jayden ThomasSimilar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+38
11.8%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 38 yds to the Navy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
11.4%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Jayden ThomasSimilar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+14
11.3%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 14 yds to the Navy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
11.4%
Audric Estime run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 5Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
9.1%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Chris Tyree for 5 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:3010% → 14%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
10.1%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (Sam Glover) to the Navy 15Similar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+3
10.1%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+50
10.1%
Daba Fofana run for 50 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+26
11.1%
Xavier Arline run for 26 yds to the NDame 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
11.0%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the NDame 5Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
9.6%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 1 yd to the NDame 4Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 0
OPP 4
+2
9.5%
Arline, Xavier pass pass intercepted by Brown, DJ at the NOTREDAME0, Brown, DJ return 0 yards to the NOTREDAME0, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding (Brown, DJ) 2 yards to the NOTREDAME2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NAVY.Similar
Q2 8:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
9.7%
Daba Fofana run for no gain to the NDame 2Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
13.8%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7MISSED FG
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:3488% → 87%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
50
+2
11.9%
Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+7
12.0%
Logan Diggs run for 7 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+6
12.0%
Logan Diggs run for 6 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
11.9%
Logan Diggs run for 3 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 7
OPP 32
-1
11.8%
Chris Tyree run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 33Similar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+6
12.3%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Lorenzo Styles for 6 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q2 3:44
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+45
12.9%
Blake Grupe 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
13.1%
Kai Puailoa-Rojas pass intercepted Clarence Lewis return for no gain to the Navy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9TD
3 plays · 41 yds · 0:5688% → 91%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
12.3%
Drew Pyne run for 2 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+28
12.4%
Audric Estime run for 28 yds to the Navy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
8.6%
Drew Pyne run for 11 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:4511% → 10%
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
11.0%
Daba Fofana run for 4 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+2
10.8%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+1
9.8%
Maquel Haywood run for 1 yd to the Navy 31Similar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 3
OWN 31
+6
9.8%
Riley Riethman punt blocked by Jack Kiser blocked by Jack KiserSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11TD
1 play · 37 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
4.1%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 37 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:3410% → 9%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
9.7%
Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
9.3%
Daba Fofana run for 5 yds to the Navy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13FG
21 plays · 72 yds · 9:467% → 8%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
6.8%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+2
6.8%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+4
6.7%
Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 12:58
4TH & 1
OWN 28
+10
6.7%
Arline, Xavier pass incomplete to Puailoa-Rojas, Kai, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding (Brown, DJ) 10 yards to the NAVY38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NAVY.Similar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
7.1%
Xavier Arline run for 7 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+2
7.3%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+9
6.2%
Daniel Jones run for 9 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
6.3%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+7
6.2%
Maquel Haywood run for 7 yds to the NDame 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
5.6%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the NDame 33Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+5
5.6%
Xavier Arline run for 5 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+1
4.3%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 1 yd to the NDame 27Similar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+8
4.1%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 8 yds to the NDame 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
4.2%
Arline, Xavier pass sacked for loss of 13 yards to the NOTREDAME32 (Liufau, Marist), PENALTY NOTREDAME face mask (TEAM) 10 yards to the NOTREDAME9, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NAVY.Similar
Q3 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
4.1%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 10Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
4.1%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the NDame 9Similar
Q3 5:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
3.5%
Xavier Arline pass incomplete to Jayden UmbargerSimilar
Q3 4:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
7.5%
Bijan Nichols 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:4497% → 97%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
3.3%
Drew Pyne sacked by John Marshall for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 20Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+1
3.3%
Logan Diggs run for 1 yd to the NDame 21Similar
Q3 3:28
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+3
3.3%
Audric Estime run for 3 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q3 3:02
4TH & 11
OWN 24
-5
3.1%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Prince Kollie) to the NDame 19Similar
Q3 2:46
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
3.1%
Jon Sot punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the Navy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:506% → 5%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
6.2%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 37Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+1
5.3%
Maquel Haywood run for 1 yd to the Navy 38Similar
Q3 1:24
3RD & 11
OWN 38
0
5.2%
Daba Fofana run for no gain to the Navy 38Similar
Q3 0:45
4TH & 11
OWN 38
+1
5.2%
Riley Riethman punt for 40 yds , Matt Salerno returns for 1 yd to the NDame 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:4497% → 97%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
2.7%
Logan Diggs run for 1 yd to the NDame 24Similar
Q3 0:03
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+3
2.6%
Logan Diggs run for 3 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
2.7%
Drew Pyne pass intercepted John Marshall return for no gain to the NDame 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17TD
1 play · 23 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
15.6%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Mark Walker for 23 yds for a TD, (X. Arline Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · -1 yds · 3:3889% → 90%
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
50
0
11.3%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 10
50
-5
11.1%
Drew Pyne sacked by Clay Cromwell and Nicholas Straw for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 45Similar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 15
OWN 45
+21
11.1%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Deion Colzie for 21 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-7
10.1%
Drew Pyne sacked by Colin Ramos and John Marshall for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 41Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 17
OPP 41
+2
10.5%
Chris Tyree run for 2 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 15
OPP 39
-7
9.3%
Drew Pyne sacked by Colin Ramos for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 46Similar
Q4 11:02
4TH & 22
OPP 46
-5
10.3%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NDame 49Similar
Q4 10:56
4TH & 27
OWN 49
0
10.4%
Jon Sot punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the Navy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4110% → 9%
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-4
9.6%
Xavier Arline sacked by Justin Ademilola and Prince Kollie for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 8Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 14
OWN 8
+7
9.0%
Xavier Arline run for 7 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 7
OWN 15
0
9.2%
Maasai Maynor pass incomplete to Maquel HaywoodSimilar
Q4 9:36
4TH & 7
OWN 15
0
8.9%
Riley Riethman punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5592% → 92%
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
8.4%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 6 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+2
7.7%
Audric Estime run for 2 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 2
OPP 45
0
7.9%
Logan Diggs run for no gain to the Navy 45Similar
Q4 7:32
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
8.4%
Jon Sot punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the Navy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:369% → 7%
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
9.0%
Maynor, Maasai pass incomplete to Terrell Jr., Vincent, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Griffith, Houston) 15 yards to the NAVY28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NAVY.Similar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
8.7%
Maasai Maynor run for no gain to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-4
7.1%
Maasai Maynor run for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 24Similar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 14
OWN 24
0
6.8%
Maasai Maynor pass incomplete to Mark WalkerSimilar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 14
OWN 24
+37
6.6%
Riley Riethman punt for 37 yds , Matt Salerno returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0493% → 93%
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
6.9%
Drew Pyne sacked by Rayuan Lane III for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 32Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 16
OWN 32
-1
7.6%
Logan Diggs run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 31Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 17
OWN 31
+8
7.5%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Lorenzo Styles for 8 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q4 4:18
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
7.0%
Jon Sot punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the Navy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23TD
15 plays · 88 yds · 2:435% → 36%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
5.3%
Maasai Maynor pass complete to Mark Walker for 10 yds to the Navy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
4.3%
Daba Fofana run for 9 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 1
OWN 31
-5
3.7%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (Sam Glover) to the Navy 26Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+10
3.5%
Maasai Maynor run for 10 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
3.6%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (Kip Frankland) to the Navy 31Similar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+1
3.3%
Maasai Maynor run for 1 yd to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+15
3.2%
Maasai Maynor pass complete to Vincent Terrell Jr. for 15 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
3.1%
Maasai Maynor pass incomplete to Mark WalkerSimilar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
3.0%
Maasai Maynor pass complete to Kai Puailoa-Rojas for 6 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+13
3.3%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 13 yds to the NDame 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
4.0%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Illegal Formation (5 Yards) to the NDame 29Similar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 5
OPP 29
+9
4.2%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 9 yds to the NDame 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
4.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
35.6%
Maasai Maynor pass complete to Maquel Haywood for 20 yds for a TD, (V. Terrell Jr. Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:4091% → 94%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
9.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 44Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 12
OPP 44
-2
5.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:21
Maasai Maynor pass complete to Maquel Haywood for 20 yds for a TD, (V. Terrell Jr. Run For Two-point Conversion)
+31.5
TD · Q4 14:47
Xavier Arline pass complete to Mark Walker for 23 yds for a TD, (X. Arline Run For Two-point Conversion)
+12.9
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com