2022 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2022 · Notre Dame Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · ND
modelND aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:30 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:08: Prince Kollie 17 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Blake Grupe Kick) — ND win probability +2.6 pts (now 44%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:38: Drew Pyne run for 5 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ND win probability +10.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:38: CLEMSON Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line — CLEM win probability +1.3 pts (now 26%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:37: Audric Estime run for 2 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ND win probability +5.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:58: Benjamin Morrison 96 Yd Interception Return (Blake Grupe Kick) — ND win probability +2.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 3 of 6CLEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 11:45ND 4th & 5 at ND 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snapGo for it43.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.3%average punt
- Q1 9:08CLEM 4th & 14 at CLEM 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snapGo for it55.3%−0.517% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.8%average punt
- Q1 5:28CLEM 4th & 4 at ND 38, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call51.9%48% to convertField goal51.6%−0.338% to makePunt51.6%−0.3average punt
- Q1 4:04ND 4th & 4 at ND 44, up 7Close callPunted · 49.6% before the snapGo for it49.7%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 2:00CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 18, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snapGo for it48.3%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.6%average punt
- Q2 13:24ND 4th & 6 at CLEM 49, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.9% before the snapGo for it53.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.1%average punt
- Q2 11:20CLEM 4th & 15 at CLEM 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snapGo for it43.5%−1.316% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.8%average punt
- Q2 8:35ND 4th & 10 at CLEM 24, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.4% before the snapGo for it55.7%−0.728% to convertField goalTheir call56.4%68% to makePunt52.1%−4.3average punt
- Q2 6:25CLEM 4th & 9 at CLEM 37, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snapGo for it39.9%−0.931% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.8%average punt
- Q3 12:59CLEM 4th & 9 at CLEM 45, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snapGo for it22.9%−1.032% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.0%average punt
- Q3 9:23ND 4th & 4 at CLEM 43, up 14Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 80.8% before the snapGo for it81.6%48% to convertField goal79.0%−2.528% to makePuntTheir call80.2%−1.4average punt
- Q3 5:19CLEM 4th & 7 at CLEM 48, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snapGo for it18.3%−0.437% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.7%average punt
- Q3 1:20ND 4th & 8 at CLEM 38, up 14Close callPunted · 90.3% before the snapGo for it90.5%35% to convertField goal89.9%−0.638% to makePuntTheir call89.8%−0.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CLEM made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q1 9:08ND Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call45.9%97% to makeGo for two45.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:38ND Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.3%97% to makeGo for two73.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:37ND Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:58ND Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:35CLEM Touchdown, down 22 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.5%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNDDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 3:0040% → 41%
CLEMDrive 2PUNT TD7 plays · -4 yds · 2:2259% → 56%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
40.7%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 4 yds to the Clem 29 CLEMSON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Clem 19Similar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 16
OWN 19
-2
40.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Shipley for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 17Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+8
41.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 8 yds to the Clem 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 3DOWNS8 plays · 37 yds · 3:0256% → 54%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
44.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Antonio Williams for 15 yds to the Clem 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
44.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 3 yds to the Clem 43Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 9
OPP 43
-4
44.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Antonio Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 47Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 13
OPP 47
+9
45.7%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 9 yds to the NDame 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1647% → 47%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5053% → 51%
Q1 3:15
2ND & 13
OWN 10
+1
48.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Shipley for 1 yd to the Clem 11Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 12
OWN 11
+7
48.7%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 7 yds to the Clem 18Similar
Q1 2:00
4TH & 5
OWN 18
+5
49.3%
Aidan Swanson punt for 67 yds , Brandon Joseph returns for 5 yds to the NDame 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 31 yds · 3:0649% → 51%
CLEMDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5549% → 47%
NDDrive 8MISSED FG9 plays · 29 yds · 2:1555% → 55%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 1:5046% → 43%
Q2 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-7
55.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the Clem 29 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ClemSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10TD12 plays · 78 yds · 5:3757% → 74%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
64.1%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 11 yds to the Clem 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11END OF HALF3 plays · -7 yds · 0:2073% → 75%
CLEMDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 24 yds · 1:4626% → 24%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+23
73.7%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 8 yds to the Clem 29 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Clem 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 5
OWN 49
-4
72.9%
DJ Uiagalelei sacked by JD Bertrand for a loss of 4 yards to the Clem 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 52 yds · 3:2777% → 80%
CLEMDrive 14PUNT11 plays · 42 yds · 4:0421% → 19%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 13
OWN 3
+2
79.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 2 yds to the Clem 5Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 11
OWN 5
+15
80.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 15 yds to the Clem 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+12
80.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Adam Randall for 12 yds to the Clem 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
4TH & 7
OWN 48
+16
81.4%
Aidan Swanson punt for 43 yds , Brandon Joseph returns for 16 yds to the NDame 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 37 yds · 3:4085% → 90%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
87.6%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 15 yds to the Clem 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-2
90.4%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Jayden Thomas for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 38Similar
Q3 1:20
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
90.0%
Jon Sot punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Antonio Williams at the Clem 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16INT2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0813% → 12%
NDDrive 17TD3 plays · 14 yds · 0:3892% → 98%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+9
91.9%
Drew Pyne run for 7 yds to the Clem 4 for a 1ST down CLEMSON Penalty, Personal Foul (2 Yards) to the Clem 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 18INT TD9 plays · 56 yds · 1:343% → 0%
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
97.5%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Clem 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+15
97.7%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
97.8%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the NDame 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
97.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Shipley for 7 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+7
97.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Antonio Williams for 7 yds to the NDame 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19TD12 plays · 75 yds · 2:310% → 0%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Phil Mafah for 4 yds to the Clem 29Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
99.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Adam Randall for 15 yds to the Clem 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+22
99.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 22 yds to the NDame 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
99.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Antonio Williams for 8 yds to the NDame 15Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 2
OPP 15
-7
99.8%
DJ Uiagalelei sacked by TaRiq Bracy for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:44100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21TD12 plays · 75 yds · 2:350% → 1%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
100.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 7 yds to the Clem 32Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
100.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 7 yds to the Clem 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
100.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 4 yds to the Clem 43Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+5
100.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Shipley for 5 yds to the Clem 48Similar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+6
100.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Shipley for 6 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
100.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Sage Ennis for 4 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+13
100.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Sage Ennis for 13 yds to the NDame 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+12
100.0%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (12 Yards) to the NDame 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 4 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22END OF GAME5 plays · 9 yds · 0:56100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:38
Drew Pyne run for 5 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)
+10.9
TD · Q4 14:37
Audric Estime run for 2 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)
+5.7
TD · Q1 9:08
Prince Kollie 17 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Blake Grupe Kick)
+2.6