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UNLV

UNLV 21 at Notre Dame 44

ND
2022 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2022 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreUNLV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:50 · Marshall Nichols punt for 47 yds , Brandon Joseph returns for 10 yds to the NDame 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 50Pregame prior+38.9Home team on offense+5.3Score differential+1.4Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Time remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:10: Mitchell Evans run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ND win probability +2.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:06: Harrison Bailey run for 2 yds for a TD NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Holding ( Yards) declined, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) — UNLV win probability +4.0 pts (now 6%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:59: Chris Tyree run for 8 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ND win probability +2.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:02: Jordan Younge-Humphrey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) — UNLV win probability +2.9 pts (now 4%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:55: Drew Pyne pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 4 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ND win probability +1.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 7UNLV made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 12:13UNLV 4th & 15 at UNLV 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:06ND 4th & 2 at UNLV 25, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.8%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    93.4%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:26ND 4th & 6 at ND 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:32UNLV 4th & 7 at UNLV 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:46UNLV 4th & 6 at UNLV 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:58ND 4th & 5 at UNLV 9, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    92.1%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:30UNLV 4th & 23 at UNLV 12, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  8. Q1 1:18ND 4th & 6 at UNLV 28, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.0%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 14:50UNLV 4th & 10 at UNLV 25, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 11:48UNLV 4th & 17 at midfield, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 9:20ND 4th & 3 at UNLV 7, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.7%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    94.5%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    93.4%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q2 7:14UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 16, down 16
    Close callPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:57UNLV 4th & 6 at ND 49, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:49ND 4th & 7 at UNLV 24, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    96.6%−1.0
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:11UNLV 4th & 2 at ND 8, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%−0.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−1.5
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:39ND 4th & 5 at ND 32, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:09UNLV 4th & 12 at UNLV 30, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:02UNLV 4th & 1 at ND 1, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−1.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:30UNLV 4th & 3 at UNLV 32, down 23
    Close callPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UNLV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:35ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:10UNLV Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:24ND Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:10ND Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:06UNLV Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:59ND Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:02UNLV Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:55ND Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2596% → 95%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.6%
Logan Diggs run for 3 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+23
95.6%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 23 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
95.6%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
95.6%
Logan Diggs run for no gain to the UNLV 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+37
95.6%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 37 yds to the UNLV 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
95.4%
Audric Estime run for 12 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:225% → 5%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.3%
Cameron Friel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
95.3%
Cameron Friel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
95.3%
UNLV Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 20Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
95.3%
Cameron Friel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:13
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+43
95.3%
Marshall Nichols punt for 43 yds , returns for no gain to the UNLV 43 , returns for no gain to the UNLV 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3FG
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:0795% → 95%
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
95.3%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 10 yds to the UNLV 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
95.4%
Logan Diggs run for 4 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
95.4%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:13
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+4
95.3%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 4 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q1 10:06
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+43
95.1%
Blake Grupe 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 4TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:565% → 6%
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+74
95.0%
Courtney Reese run for 74 yds to the NOTREDAME 1 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offsides ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
94.8%
Jordan Younge-Humphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 2Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.4%
Jordan Younge-Humphrey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3895% → 94%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
94.5%
Logan Diggs run for no gain to the NDame 18Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+4
94.1%
Drew Pyne run for 4 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 6
OWN 22
0
94.0%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:26
4TH & 6
OWN 22
0
94.0%
Jon Sot punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Nohl Williams at the UNLV 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:546% → 6%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
94.2%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Nick Williams for 3 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
94.1%
Harrison Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
94.2%
Harrison Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:32
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
94.1%
punt blocked by Isaiah Foskey blocked by Isaiah FoskeySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7TD
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:0894% → 95%
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
94.2%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
94.7%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 20 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:386% → 6%
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
94.4%
Courtney Reese run for a loss of 6 yards to the UNLV 19Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
94.4%
Harrison Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:24
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+10
94.5%
Harrison Bailey run for 10 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q1 4:46
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
94.2%
punt blocked by Isaiah Foskey blocked by Isaiah FoskeySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4895% → 95%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
94.6%
Chris Tyree run for 5 yds to the UNLV 9Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 5
OPP 9
0
94.6%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
94.4%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:58
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+27
95.0%
Blake Grupe 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 1:285% → 5%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.6%
Cameron Friel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
94.6%
Jordan Younge-Humphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 24Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
94.7%
UNLV Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 2:30
4TH & 23
OWN 12
+20
94.7%
Marshall Nichols punt for 40 yds , Brandon Joseph returns for 20 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1295% → 95%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
95.1%
Logan Diggs run for 3 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+1
95.1%
Logan Diggs run for 1 yd to the UNLV 28Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
95.0%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:18
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+46
95.1%
Blake Grupe 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:286% → 6%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.4%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Kyle Williams for 4 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
94.4%
Cameron Friel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-4
94.3%
Cameron Friel sacked by Isaiah Foskey and Rylie Mills for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 25Similar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+10
94.4%
Marshall Nichols punt for 47 yds , Brandon Joseph returns for 10 yds to the NDame 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13FUMBLE
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:4095% → 95%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
95.1%
Audric Estime run for 3 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+2
95.1%
Audric Estime run for 2 yds to the NDame 43 Audric Estime fumbled, recovered by UNLV Nohl WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 2:226% → 6%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
93.8%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Nick Williams for 3 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+1
93.8%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Ricky White for 1 yd to the NDame 39Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+4
93.8%
Cameron Friel run for 4 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 2
OPP 35
-15
94.0%
FRIEL, Cameron pass to the left complete for 27 yards to WHITE, Ricky caught at the UND12 and advanced to the UND8, out of bounds. PENALTY UNL Pass Interference on WHITE, Ricky enforced 15 yards to the UNL50 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:48
4TH & 17
50
+45
94.4%
Marshall Nichols punt for 50 yds for a touchback UNLV Penalty, Illegal Formation (TEAM)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · 68 yds · 2:2895% → 95%
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
94.9%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 27 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
95.2%
UNLV Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Fred Thompkins) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
95.2%
Drew Pyne run for 5 yds to the UNLV 9Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+2
95.2%
Chris Tyree run for 2 yds to the UNLV 7Similar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 3
OPP 7
0
95.1%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:20
4TH & 3
OPP 7
0
95.2%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:066% → 6%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
94.5%
Jordan Younge-Humphrey run for 1 yd to the UNLV 8Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+6
94.6%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Ricky White for 6 yds to the UNLV 14Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+2
94.5%
Jordan Younge-Humphrey run for 2 yds to the UNLV 16Similar
Q2 7:14
4TH & 1
OWN 16
+12
94.4%
Marshall Nichols punt for 42 yds , Brandon Joseph returns for 12 yds to the UNLV 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17TD
7 plays · 46 yds · 3:0495% → 98%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
95.3%
Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+7
95.3%
Logan Diggs run for 7 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+4
95.2%
Mitchell Evans run for 4 yds to the UNLV 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
95.3%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Lorenzo Styles for 11 yds to the UNLV 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+21
95.3%
Drew Pyne run for 21 yds to the UNLV 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.6%
Mitchell Evans run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · 39 yds · 0:383% → 3%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
97.1%
Courtney Reese run for 13 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+26
97.0%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Ricky White for 26 yds Ricky White fumbled, recovered by NDame Clarence LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19INT
11 plays · 37 yds · 3:0098% → 98%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
97.8%
Logan Diggs run for 10 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
97.9%
Logan Diggs run for 5 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+4
97.8%
Chris Tyree run for 4 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
97.7%
Chris Tyree run for 2 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
98.1%
Logan Diggs run for 14 yds to the UNLV 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
98.1%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 7 yds to the UNLV 16Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 3
OPP 16
-5
98.1%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 21Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
98.0%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 8
OPP 21
0
98.0%
Drew Pyne pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20END OF HALF
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:243% → 2%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+14
97.4%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Jordan Younge-Humphrey for 14 yds to the UNLV 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
98.2%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Jordan Younge-Humphrey for 4 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 37
-8
98.2%
Cameron Friel sacked by Isaiah Foskey for a loss of 8 yards to the UNLV 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:033% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.5%
Courtney Reese run for 5 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
97.4%
UNLV Penalty, False Start (Kyle Williams) to the UNLV 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+22
97.5%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Kyle Williams for 22 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
97.3%
Courtney Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
97.4%
Cameron Friel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 46
0
97.5%
UNLV Penalty, Offensive Holding (Daviyon McDaniel) declinedSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 46
+5
97.5%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offsides (TEAM) to the NDame 49Similar
Q3 12:57
4TH & 6
OPP 49
-9
97.6%
Cameron Friel sacked by Isaiah Foskey for a loss of 9 yards to the UNLV 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22MISSED FG
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:0898% → 98%
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
98.0%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 15 yds to the UNLV 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
98.0%
Logan Diggs run for 3 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
98.0%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
98.0%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:49
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+42
97.9%
Blake Grupe 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 23TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 3:432% → 6%
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+47
97.8%
Courtney Reese run for 47 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
97.5%
Harrison Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+13
97.6%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Shelton Zeon III for 13 yds to the NDame 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
97.5%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Kyle Williams for 4 yds to the NDame 12Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 6
OPP 12
0
97.5%
Harrison Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+4
97.8%
Harrison Bailey run for 4 yds to the NDame 8Similar
Q3 9:11
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+2
97.8%
Harrison Bailey run for 2 yds to the NDame 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
97.6%
Jordan Younge-Humphrey run for 4 yds to the NDame 2Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
93.6%
Harrison Bailey run for 2 yds for a TD NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Holding ( Yards) declined, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:2396% → 96%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
96.1%
Chris Tyree run for 8 yds to the NDame 23Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+4
96.2%
Chris Tyree run for 4 yds to the NDame 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
96.2%
Chris Tyree run for 2 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+3
96.2%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 3 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
96.1%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:39
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
96.3%
Jon Sot punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Nohl Williams at the UNLV 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:306% → 4%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
94.5%
Courtney Reese run for no gain to the UNLV 32Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
94.8%
Harrison Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 10
OWN 32
-2
95.0%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Courtney Reese for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 30Similar
Q3 4:09
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
95.7%
Marshall Nichols punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 26TD
14 plays · 62 yds · 7:1097% → 100%
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
96.8%
Logan Diggs run for 1 yd to the NDame 39Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+7
96.8%
Logan Diggs run for 7 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+4
96.8%
Logan Diggs run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
50
+10
97.0%
Logan Diggs run for 10 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
97.0%
Logan Diggs run for 5 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+3
97.0%
Logan Diggs run for 3 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+3
97.1%
Chris Tyree run for 3 yds to the UNLV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
97.2%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Lorenzo Styles for 1 yd to the UNLV 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+6
97.2%
Logan Diggs run for 6 yds to the UNLV 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+5
97.1%
Logan Diggs run for 5 yds to the UNLV 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
97.2%
Logan Diggs run for 4 yds to the UNLV 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+5
97.2%
Chris Tyree run for 5 yds to the UNLV 8Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+8
99.5%
Chris Tyree run for 8 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 27TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:571% → 4%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.1%
Courtney Reese run for 2 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
99.1%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Nick Williams for 15 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
99.1%
Courtney Reese run for 2 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+8
99.1%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Ricky White for 8 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+26
99.1%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Nick Williams for 26 yds to the NDame 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
98.9%
Harrison Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+5
99.0%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Kyle Williams for 5 yds to the NDame 17 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Face mask (0 yards) (Benjamin Morrison) to the NDame 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
98.9%
Harrison Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
98.9%
Harrison Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
99.1%
Harrison Bailey run for 7 yds to the NDame 1Similar
Q4 8:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.2%
Jordan Younge-Humphrey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 28TD
9 plays · 46 yds · 5:0698% → 100%
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+16
97.8%
Logan Diggs run for 16 yds to the UNLV 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
97.8%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 9 yds to the UNLV 21Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 1
OPP 21
0
97.8%
Logan Diggs run for no gain to the UNLV 21Similar
Q4 8:01
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+2
97.7%
Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the UNLV 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
97.8%
Logan Diggs run for 5 yds to the UNLV 14Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+4
97.8%
Logan Diggs run for 4 yds to the UNLV 10Similar
Q4 8:01
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+3
97.7%
Logan Diggs run for 3 yds to the UNLV 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
97.8%
Logan Diggs run for 3 yds to the UNLV 4Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.7%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 4 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:251% → 1%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.5%
Courtney Reese run for 6 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
99.5%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Senika McKie for 1 yd to the UNLV 32Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
99.5%
Courtney Reese run for no gain to the UNLV 32Similar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.5%
Marshall Nichols punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Brandon Joseph at the NDame 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
99.8%
[NH] Kneel down by UND at UND28 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:06
Harrison Bailey run for 2 yds for a TD NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Holding ( Yards) declined, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)
-4
TD · Q4 8:02
Jordan Younge-Humphrey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)
-2.9
TD · Q4 11:59
Chris Tyree run for 8 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)
+2.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com