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Notre Dame 45 at North Carolina 32

UNC
2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:19 · Drew Pyne run for no gain to the NCaro 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 130Home team on offense−39.5Score differential−20.4Garbage-time factor−7.8Pregame prior+2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:55: Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 3 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +9.8 pts (now 62%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:37: Audric Estime run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ND win probability +13.1 pts (now 61%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:18: Drew Pyne pass complete to Logan Diggs for 29 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ND win probability +13.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:21: Audric Estime run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ND win probability +9.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:08: Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 80 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UNC win probability +9.0 pts (now 15%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ND made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:53UNC 4th & 4 at ND 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    58.7%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    57.8%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:46ND 4th & 2 at ND 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:14UNC 4th & 20 at UNC 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−0.8
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:56ND 4th & 4 at UNC 26, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.8%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    36.5%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:45UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:27UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.1%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:15UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:23ND 4th & 2 at UNC 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−0.9
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    55.4%−4.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:54UNC 4th & 12 at UNC 33, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−2.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:19ND 4th & 1 at UNC 25, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    94.0%−0.7
    66% to make
    Punt
    91.9%−2.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:44UNC 4th & 21 at UNC 36, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−<0.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ND made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:53UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:57ND Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:01ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:55UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:37ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:18ND Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:21ND Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:08UNC Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    12.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    12.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:04ND Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:47UNC Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    4.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.2%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:44UNC Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.6%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1TD
14 plays · 76 yds · 4:3757% → 60%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+28
57.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 28 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
57.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 7 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+6
57.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 6 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
57.8%
Drake Maye run for 6 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
58.0%
Drake Maye run for 15 yds to the NDame 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
58.0%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+1
58.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the NDame 13Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+12
58.0%
Drake Maye run for 12 yds to the NDame 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
58.2%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the NDame 1Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
58.3%
Omarion Hampton run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 4Similar
Q1 9:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
58.2%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q1 9:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
60.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 4 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0241% → 40%
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.5%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
59.8%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Chris Tyree for 8 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
59.8%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:46
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+3
60.0%
Jon Sot punt for 54 yds , Cam'Ron Kelly returns for 3 yds to the NCaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:1660% → 60%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
60.4%
Caleb Hood run for no gain to the NCaro 16Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-10
60.5%
Drake Maye sacked by Rylie Mills for a loss of 10 yards to the NCaro 6Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 20
OWN 6
0
60.5%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Bryson NesbitSimilar
Q1 7:14
4TH & 20
OWN 6
+17
60.3%
Ben Kiernan punt for 54 yds , Brandon Joseph returns for 17 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4MISSED FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:0840% → 39%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
59.9%
Chris Tyree run for 3 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+2
59.9%
Chris Tyree run for 2 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+6
60.2%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 6 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-7
59.9%
Drew Pyne sacked by Power Echols for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 39Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 17
OPP 39
0
61.0%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Jayden ThomasSimilar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 17
OPP 39
+13
61.5%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Chris Tyree for 13 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q1 3:56
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+44
61.3%
Blake Grupe 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:0063% → 63%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
62.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 5 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+8
62.9%
Drake Maye run for 8 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
63.5%
Omarion Hampton run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 37Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 12
OWN 37
0
63.0%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+2
62.7%
Drake Maye run for 2 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q1 1:45
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
62.6%
Ben Kiernan punt for 44 yds, downed at the NDame 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 3:3337% → 45%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
63.0%
Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the NDame 19Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+1
63.3%
Logan Diggs run for 1 yd to the NDame 20Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+12
64.0%
Drew Pyne run for 12 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+34
63.3%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Logan Diggs for 34 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
61.6%
Chris Tyree run for 9 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+5
61.7%
Chris Tyree run for 5 yds to the NCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
61.8%
Chris Tyree run for 10 yds to the NCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
55.0%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 10 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1359% → 58%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
58.9%
Caleb Hood run for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
58.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 3 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
58.6%
Drake Maye run for 4 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q2 11:27
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+9
58.3%
Ben Kiernan punt for 42 yds , Brandon Joseph returns for 9 yds to the NDame 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 1:1043% → 51%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
57.0%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 7 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+29
55.6%
Audric Estime run for 29 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
47.7%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Lorenzo Styles for 30 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
49.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 2:5050% → 62%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
49.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 21Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 13
OWN 21
+14
49.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 14 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
50.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 12 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
51.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 7
50
+4
50.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+43
50.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 43 yds to the NDame 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
51.8%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q2 6:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
51.7%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Bryson NesbitSimilar
Q2 6:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
61.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 3 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1244% → 61%
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.0%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.1%
Chris Tyree run for 5 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+13
56.1%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 13 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
53.8%
Chris Tyree run for 19 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+17
53.1%
Logan Diggs run for 17 yds to the NCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+19
52.1%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 19 yds to the NCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
52.2%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the NCaro 1Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.2%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1546% → 45%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.2%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
46.1%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to D.J. JonesSimilar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
45.2%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q2 2:15
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
44.6%
Ben Kiernan punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Brandon Joseph at the NDame 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12FG
14 plays · 52 yds · 1:3759% → 64%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
41.5%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Chris Tyree for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 25Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+7
41.9%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 7 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+16
41.7%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 16 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
39.8%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 5 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
38.3%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+7
38.7%
Logan Diggs run for 7 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
37.5%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+10
37.7%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 10 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
36.9%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Chris Tyree for 4 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 6
OPP 26
0
36.7%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Lorenzo StylesSimilar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+4
37.0%
Drew Pyne run for 4 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+40
35.8%
Blake Grupe 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
38.5%
George Pettaway run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3262% → 79%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
38.3%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 11 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
37.1%
Chris Tyree run for 6 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+11
36.1%
Chris Tyree run for 11 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
35.7%
Chris Tyree run for 2 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+16
34.6%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Lorenzo Styles for 16 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
21.4%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Logan Diggs for 29 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15FUMBLE
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
24.5%
Drake Maye run for a loss of 10 yards to the NCaro 15 Drake Maye fumbled, recovered by NDame Justin AdemilolaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16TD
11 plays · 15 yds · 1:5279% → 92%
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
21.1%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 20Similar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+11
20.9%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Lorenzo Styles for 11 yds to the NCaro 9Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 4
OPP 9
0
20.2%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+7
20.3%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Matt Salerno for 7 yds to the NCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
19.5%
Audric Estime run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 3Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
19.4%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q3 10:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
19.7%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Jayden ThomasSimilar
Q3 10:24
4TH & 0
OPP 3
+1
19.8%
Pyne, Drew pass incomplete to Tyree, Chris, PENALTY UNC pass interference 1 yards to the UNC2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 0
OPP 2
+1
18.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the NCaro 1Similar
Q3 10:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
8.3%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 2:2210% → 8%
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
10.4%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
9.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for no gain to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
9.2%
Drake Maye run for 10 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
9.1%
D.J. Jones run for 3 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
9.1%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Gavin BlackwellSimilar
Q3 8:35
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-5
8.8%
Drake Maye sacked by Isaiah Foskey and Marist Liufau for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 7:54
4TH & 12
OWN 33
+17
8.1%
Ben Kiernan punt for 53 yds , Brandon Joseph returns for 17 yds to the NDame 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 44 yds · 3:2193% → 95%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
6.6%
Braden Lenzy run for 7 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+3
6.4%
Logan Diggs run for 3 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
6.0%
Logan Diggs run for 5 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+20
5.3%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 20 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
5.0%
Logan Diggs run for 1 yd to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+6
4.8%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Lorenzo Styles for 6 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+2
4.4%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Logan Diggs for 2 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 4:19
4TH & 1
OPP 25
0
4.9%
Drew Pyne run for no gain to the NCaro 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:116% → 15%
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
6.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Encroachment (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 20Similar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+80
14.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 80 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:4689% → 99%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
10.6%
Chris Tyree run for 4 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
8.6%
Chris Tyree run for 5 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
8.3%
Logan Diggs run for 9 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
7.4%
Audric Estime run for 10 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
6.6%
Audric Estime run for 14 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
6.1%
Audric Estime run for 7 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+7
5.3%
Audric Estime run for 7 yds to the NCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
5.2%
Audric Estime run for 4 yds to the NCaro 15 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (8 Yards) to the NCaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
5.0%
Drew Pyne run for 3 yds to the NCaro 4 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (2 Yards) to the NCaro 2Similar
Q4 14:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
4.8%
Chris Tyree run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 5Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 0
OPP 5
+3
4.7%
Pyne, Drew pass incomplete to Styles, Lorenzo, PENALTY UNC pass interference 3 yards to the UNC2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q4 13:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
4.6%
Chris Tyree run for 1 yd to the NCaro 1Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.6%
Chris Tyree run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 3:081% → 7%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
0.8%
Drake Maye run for 5 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
0.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 6 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+38
0.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 23 yds to the UNC 39 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Personal Foul, targeting (JD Bertrand) to the NDame 24 for a 1ST down. JD Bertrand has been disqualifiedSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
0.9%
Drake Maye sacked by Rylie Mills for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 29Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+14
0.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 14 yds to the NDame 15Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 1
OPP 15
0
0.8%
George Pettaway run for no gain to the NDame 15Similar
Q4 10:08
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+6
0.7%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Offside (6 Yards) to the NDame 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 0
OPP 9
+6
0.7%
Maye, Drake pass incomplete to Blackwell, Gavin, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding 6 yards to the NOTREDAME4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q4 9:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
0.7%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Bryson NesbitSimilar
Q4 9:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
6.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22FUMBLE
11 plays · 74 yds · 6:0597% → 99%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
2.8%
Audric Estime run for 8 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
2.6%
Audric Estime run for 3 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
2.4%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Lorenzo Styles for 6 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+16
2.2%
Audric Estime run for 16 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
1.9%
Audric Estime run for 4 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 6
OPP 38
0
1.6%
Logan Diggs run for no gain to the NCaro 38Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+8
1.4%
Drew Pyne run for 8 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
1.3%
Audric Estime run for 18 yds to the NCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
1.2%
Audric Estime run for 5 yds to the NCaro 7Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+6
1.0%
Audric Estime run for 6 yds Audric Estime fumbled, forced by Don Chapman, recovered by NCaro Will HardySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 1:262% → 6%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
2.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Gavin Blackwell for 8 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
2.2%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Gavin BlackwellSimilar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+4
2.2%
Drake Maye run for 4 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
2.2%
Maye, Drake pass incomplete to Jones, J.J., PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference 15 yards to the UNC47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
2.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to George Pettaway for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 7
50
0
2.3%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Bryson NesbitSimilar
Q4 2:09
3RD & 7
50
-14
2.2%
Maye, Drake pass complete to Pettaway, George for 3 yards to the NOTREDAME47, PENALTY UNC personal foul 14 yards to the UNC36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 21
OWN 36
0
1.7%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 21
OWN 36
+64
3.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 64 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 0
OPP 3
-15
6.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the NDame 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1898% → 98%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
2.2%
Logan Diggs run for 5 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 5
OPP 38
-2
2.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 40Similar
Q4 0:12
3RD & 7
OPP 40
-2
2.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:18
Drew Pyne pass complete to Logan Diggs for 29 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)
-13.2
TD · Q2 2:37
Audric Estime run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)
-13.1
TD · Q2 6:55
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 3 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)
+9.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com