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Notre Dame 10 at Ohio State 21

OSU
2022 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2022 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:04 · Jesse Mirco punt for 48 yds, downed at the NDame 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 12Pregame prior+36.7Home team on offense−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:56: Audric Estime 1 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick) — ND win probability +3.5 pts (now 21%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:17: Xavier Johnson 24 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Noah Ruggles Kick) — OSU win probability +16.1 pts (now 82%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:12: Timeout NOTRE DAME, clock 00:12 — OSU win probability +4.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:50: TreVeyon Henderson run for 5 yds to the OhSt 10 — ND win probability +3.8 pts (now 21%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:51: Miyan Williams 2 Yd Run (Noah Ruggles Kick) — OSU win probability +7.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6ND made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:13ND 4th & 8 at OSU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    13.6%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:04OSU 4th & 7 at OSU 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:06ND 4th & 1 at ND 14, up 3
    Close callPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:28ND 4th & 11 at ND 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:06OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 37, up 4
    Close callPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:42OSU 4th & 3 at ND 40, down 3
    Close callPunted · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    76.8%−1.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:31ND 4th & 3 at ND 28, up 3
    Close callPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:35OSU 4th & 6 at ND 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.2%
    74% to make
    Punt
    67.2%−5.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:11ND 4th & 4 at ND 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−1.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:14OSU 4th & 6 at OSU 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:53ND 4th & 11 at OSU 36, up 3
    Close callPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    32.9%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:36OSU 4th & 2 at OSU 38, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:00ND 4th & 8 at ND 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−2.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:57ND 4th & 16 at OSU 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−2.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:42ND 4th & 21 at ND 14, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ND made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 5:32OSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:56ND Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:17OSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:51OSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1FG
6 plays · 71 yds · 2:3211% → 12%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+69
89.0%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Lorenzo Styles for 54 yds to the OHIOST 31 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (J.T. Tuimoloau) to the OhSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
88.8%
Audric Estime run for 3 yds to the OhSt 13Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 7
OPP 13
-2
88.6%
Logan Diggs run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 15Similar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+1
88.3%
Tyler Buchner run for 1 yd to the OhSt 14Similar
Q1 12:13
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+33
88.1%
Blake Grupe 33 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:5688% → 87%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
88.1%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the OhSt 29 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jayson Ademilola) to the OhSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
88.0%
C.J. Stroud sacked by Howard Cross III for a loss of 5 yards to the OhSt 39Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 15
OWN 39
0
87.8%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSimilar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 15
OWN 39
+8
87.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 8 yds to the OhSt 47Similar
Q1 10:04
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
87.3%
Jesse Mirco punt for 48 yds, downed at the NDame 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:4713% → 13%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
87.4%
Audric Estime run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 3Similar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 12
OWN 3
-1
87.2%
Estime, Audric rush for 2 yards to the NOTREDAME5, PENALTY NOTREDAME false start (Styles, Lorenzo) 1 yards to the NOTREDAME2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 13
OWN 2
+6
87.0%
Tyler Buchner run for 6 yds to the NDame 8Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 7
OWN 8
+6
86.9%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Michael Mayer for 6 yds to the NDame 14Similar
Q1 7:06
4TH & 1
OWN 14
0
86.6%
Jon Sot punt for 40 yds, downed at the OhSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 1:2787% → 87%
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
86.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 6
50
+15
86.5%
Stroud, C.J. pass incomplete to Egbuka, Emeka, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Hart, Cam) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
86.7%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Marvin Harrison Jr.Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
86.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 4 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+31
87.3%
Emeka Egbuka 31 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Noah Ruggles Kick)Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+15
86.8%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Personal Foul (Isaiah Foskey) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:5713% → 13%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.1%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Michael Mayer for no gain to the NDame 25Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
87.1%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Michael Mayer for 6 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-7
86.9%
Tyler Buchner sacked by Tommy Eichenberg for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 24Similar
Q1 3:28
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
87.1%
Jon Sot punt for 48 yds, downed at the OhSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1286% → 86%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
86.4%
Miyan Williams run for 8 yds to the OhSt 36Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 2
OWN 36
0
86.7%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Marvin Harrison Jr.Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+1
86.4%
Miyan Williams run for 1 yd to the OhSt 37Similar
Q1 2:06
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
85.8%
Jesse Mirco punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Deion Colzie at the NDame 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7TD
11 plays · 87 yds · 5:0314% → 21%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
86.2%
Audric Estime run for 8 yds to the NDame 21Similar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+6
85.9%
Audric Estime run for 6 yds to the NDame 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
85.9%
Audric Estime run for 2 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q1 0:12
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+6
85.7%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Chris Tyree for 6 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+31
85.4%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Matt Salerno for 31 yds to the OhSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+22
84.5%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Kevin Bauman for 22 yds to the OhSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
84.1%
Chris Tyree run for 5 yds to the OhSt 7Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+3
83.9%
Tyler Buchner run for 3 yds to the OhSt 4Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+3
84.1%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Michael Mayer for 3 yds to the OhSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.3%
Audric Estime 1 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 3:1481% → 80%
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
80.9%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Dawand Jones) to the OhSt 20Similar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+9
80.7%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 9 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
80.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
Q2 10:49
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+21
80.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 21 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
81.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for 1 yd to the NDame 46Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
81.0%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Marvin Harrison Jr., broken up by Benjamin MorrisonSimilar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+6
80.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 6 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q2 8:57
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
79.8%
OHIO ST Penalty, Delay of Game declinedSimilar
Q2 8:42
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
79.6%
Jesse Mirco punt for 35 yds, downed at the NDame 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 3:0421% → 23%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
79.0%
Logan Diggs run for 4 yds to the NDame 9Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+12
78.0%
Tyler Buchner run for 12 yds to the NDame 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
77.1%
Logan Diggs run for 7 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 3
OWN 28
0
75.8%
Logan Diggs run for no gain to the NDame 28Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 3
OWN 28
0
76.1%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q2 5:31
4TH & 3
OWN 28
+4
77.1%
Jon Sot punt for 52 yds , Emeka Egbuka returns for 4 yds to the OhSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10MISSED FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 4:4776% → 73%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
75.9%
Miyan Williams run for 8 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+3
76.9%
Miyan Williams run for 3 yds to the OhSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
75.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 34Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+6
74.8%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for 6 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q2 2:59
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+12
75.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 12 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
76.3%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for 7 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+16
76.0%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 16 yds to the NDame 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
76.5%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Emeka Egbuka, broken up by Clarence LewisSimilar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
76.4%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the NDame 21Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
74.8%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Emeka EgbukaSimilar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+39
73.3%
Noah Ruggles 39 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:2029% → 28%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
70.8%
Chris Tyree run for 1 yd to the NDame 22Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
72.1%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+5
72.8%
Chris Tyree run for 5 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
72.4%
Jon Sot punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Emeka Egbuka at the OhSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
69.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4273% → 70%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.7%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Marvin Harrison Jr.Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
72.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 4 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
Q3 14:20
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
71.1%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Marvin Harrison Jr.Similar
Q3 14:14
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+27
69.9%
Jesse Mirco punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Deion Colzie at the OHIOST 29 OHIO ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Jayden Ballard) to the NDame 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:1631% → 31%
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
68.6%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Lorenzo StylesSimilar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
68.9%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Jayden Thomas, broken up by Jack SawyerSimilar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+21
69.8%
Tyler Buchner run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Lathan Ransom) to the OhSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
66.8%
Audric Estime run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 36Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 11
OPP 36
0
66.9%
Tyler Buchner run for no gain to the OhSt 36Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 11
OPP 36
0
67.1%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Braden Lenzy, broken up by Denzel BurkeSimilar
Q3 11:53
4TH & 11
OPP 36
0
69.4%
Jon Sot punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Emeka Egbuka at the OhSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:1169% → 66%
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
68.8%
Miyan Williams run for 4 yds to the OhSt 11Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+8
68.5%
Miyan Williams run for 8 yds to the OhSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
68.5%
Miyan Williams run for 3 yds to the OhSt 22Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+5
68.2%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 5 yds to the OhSt 27Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+3
67.3%
C.J. Stroud run for 3 yds to the OhSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
68.1%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Cade StoverSimilar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
67.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jayden Ballard for 4 yds to the OhSt 34Similar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+4
66.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 4 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q3 8:36
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
66.3%
Jesse Mirco punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Deion Colzie at the NDame 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:2535% → 37%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
64.9%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the NDame 13Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+3
64.7%
Audric Estime run for 3 yds to the NDame 16Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+17
64.9%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Michael Mayer for 17 yds Michael Mayer fumbled, recovered by NDameSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
61.9%
Tyler Buchner sacked by Tommy Eichenberg for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 32Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+3
62.6%
Chris Tyree run for 3 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
62.2%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q3 5:00
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
63.0%
Jon Sot punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Emeka Egbuka at the OhSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:3565% → 82%
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
65.2%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 16 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
68.1%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Dawand Jones) to the OhSt 41Similar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+11
65.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 11 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+5
68.6%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 5 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
67.7%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 9 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+1
69.9%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 1 yd to the NDame 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
69.5%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Marvin Harrison Jr.Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+10
69.3%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jayden Ballard for 10 yds to the NDame 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
68.9%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the NDame 19Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 6
OPP 19
-15
68.5%
Stroud, C.J. pass incomplete to Johnson, Xavier, PENALTY OHIOST illegal block (Henderson, TreVeyon) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 21
OPP 34
+10
65.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 10 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q3 0:17
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+24
81.7%
Xavier Johnson 24 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Noah Ruggles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 40 yds · 3:0917% → 17%
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+32
83.1%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 32 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
80.8%
Chris Tyree run for 14 yds to the OhSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-15
79.1%
Buchner, Tyler pass incomplete to Salerno, Matt, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Salerno, Matt) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 25
OWN 44
+7
82.1%
Tyler Buchner run for 7 yds to the OhSt 49Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 18
OPP 49
0
81.3%
Chris Tyree run for no gain to the OhSt 49Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 18
OPP 49
+2
82.1%
Tyler Buchner run for 2 yds to the OhSt 47Similar
Q4 11:57
4TH & 16
OPP 47
0
83.1%
Jon Sot punt for 42 yds, downed at the OhSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19TD
15 plays · 95 yds · 6:5979% → 96%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
79.4%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 5 yds to the OhSt 10Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+7
79.3%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 7 yds to the OhSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
79.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 4 yds to the OhSt 21Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+3
79.5%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the OhSt 24Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+12
79.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Miyan Williams for 12 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
80.7%
Miyan Williams run for 4 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+11
81.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 11 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
82.3%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Dawand Jones) to the OhSt 46Similar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+11
81.0%
Miyan Williams run for 11 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+9
84.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 9 yds to the NDame 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
87.1%
Miyan Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+15
87.3%
Miyan Williams run for 15 yds to the NDame 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
87.9%
Miyan Williams run for 12 yds to the NDame 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
89.0%
Miyan Williams run for no gain to the NDame 2Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.0%
Miyan Williams 2 Yd Run (Noah Ruggles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:034% → 3%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.8%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
95.8%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Michael Mayer, broken up by Steele ChambersSimilar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-11
96.2%
Tyler Buchner sacked by Michael Hall Jr. for a loss of 11 yards to the NDame 14Similar
Q4 3:42
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
96.7%
Jon Sot punt for 75 yds, downed at the OhSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21END OF GAME
6 plays · 21 yds · 3:2696% → 97%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
95.9%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 12 yds to the OhSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
96.6%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 5 yds to the OhSt 28Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+4
96.6%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+3
97.1%
C.J. Stroud run for 3 yds to the OhSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
97.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 33Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 12
OWN 33
-1
97.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:17
Xavier Johnson 24 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Noah Ruggles Kick)
+16.1
TD · Q4 4:51
Miyan Williams 2 Yd Run (Noah Ruggles Kick)
+7
KEY PLAY · Q3 0:12
Timeout NOTRE DAME, clock 00:12
+4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com