2022 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2022 · Boone Pickens Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadWVU aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreWVU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:32 · Deondre Jackson run for no gain to the WVirg 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:56: Brennan Presley run for 4 yds for a TD, (Tanner Brown KICK) — OKST win probability +6.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:45: Jaylen Anderson run for 54 yds for a TD, (Casey Legg KICK) — WVU win probability +15.1 pts (now 47%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:53: Jaylen Anderson run for 57 yds for a TD, (Casey Legg KICK) — WVU win probability +17.5 pts (now 64%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:24: Ollie Gordon run for 23 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — OKST win probability +21.8 pts (now 62%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
- FG · Q4 5:59: Casey Legg 34 yd FG GOOD — WVU win probability +16.7 pts (now 75%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 8 of 12WVU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
- Q1 13:16OKST 4th & 3 at OKST 48, tiedClose callPunted · 65.6% before the snapGo for it65.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:28WVU 4th & 25 at WVU 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snapGo for it34.4%−0.57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.9%average punt
- Q1 7:19OKST 4th & 16 at OKST 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snapGo for it63.9%−0.513% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.4%average punt
- Q1 5:48OKST 4th & 14 at OKST 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.9% before the snapGo for it60.6%−0.518% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.1%average punt
- Q1 4:58WVU 4th & 7 at WVU 33, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snapGo for it38.8%−0.436% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.2%average punt
- Q1 3:44OKST 4th & 1 at OKST 31, down 7Close callPunted · 60.2% before the snapGo for it60.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.3%−0.5average punt
- Q1 1:34WVU 4th & 3 at WVU 21, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snapGo for it40.7%−0.251% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.9%average punt
- Q2 12:00WVU 4th & 13 at WVU 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snapGo for it35.0%−0.920% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.0%average punt
- Q2 8:13OKST 4th & 18 at OKST 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snapGo for it61.3%−1.613% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.9%average punt
- Q2 4:32OKST 4th & 1 at WVU 7, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call64.4%70% to convertField goal62.3%−2.191% to makePunt57.2%−7.3average punt
- Q2 2:18WVU 4th & 10 at WVU 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 38.7% before the snapGo for it37.4%−1.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.5%average punt
- Q2 0:14OKST 4th & 4 at WVU 4, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 63.5% before the snapGo for it63.3%40% to convertField goalTheir call63.2%−0.193% to makePunt58.2%−5.1average punt
- Q3 14:56WVU 4th & 1 at WVU 29, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call34.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt31.9%−2.6average punt
- Q3 10:26OKST 4th & 2 at OKST 42, down 4Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 53.3% before the snapGo for it54.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.1%−1.0average punt
- Q3 5:59OKST 4th & 11 at WVU 21, down 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.6% before the snapGo for it29.3%−1.925% to convertField goalTheir call31.2%74% to makePunt23.6%−7.6average punt
- Q3 2:16WVU 4th & 1 at WVU 49, up 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call70.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt67.8%−2.9average punt
- Q4 14:51WVU 4th & 10 at WVU 25, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.8% before the snapGo for it47.1%−5.028% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.1%average punt
- Q4 12:41WVU 4th & 9 at OKST 48, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snapGo for it54.0%−1.732% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.6%average punt
- Q4 11:18OKST 4th & 7 at OKST 23, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snapGo for it44.5%−2.335% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.8%average punt
- Q4 5:59WVU 4th & 2 at OKST 16, up 2Numbers favored go for it by 3.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 61.6% before the snapGo for it60.8%56% to convertField goalTheir call57.4%−3.481% to makePunt35.0%−25.8average punt
- Q4 1:50OKST 4th & 3 at WVU 28, down 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call24.7%52% to convertField goal18.4%−6.260% to makePunt10.2%−14.4average punt
- Q4 1:29WVU 4th & 12 at WVU 26, up 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.3% before the snapGo for it82.7%−3.622% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.2%average punt
- Q4 1:07OKST 4th & 10 at OKST 46, down 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.8%29% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt11.9%−2.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2WVU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 7:11WVU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call36.9%97% to makeGo for two36.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:56OKST Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.9%97% to makeGo for two62.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:45WVU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call47.4%97% to makeGo for two47.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 9:53WVU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.3%97% to makeGo for two64.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:24OKST Touchdown, down 2 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick51.8%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call51.5%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOKSTDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 28 yds · 1:3872% → 71%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
71.6%
Garret Rangel pass complete to Brennan Presley for 21 yds to the OKSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
71.6%
Garret Rangel pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 2 yds to the OKSt 39Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+9
71.6%
Garret Rangel pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 9 yds to the OKSt 48Similar
Q1 13:16
4TH & 3
OWN 48
+2
71.4%
Logan Ward punt for 39 yds , Preston Fox returns for 2 yds to the WVirg 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 2PUNT12 plays · 26 yds · 4:4829% → 29%
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
71.4%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Brian Polendey for 3 yds to the WVirg 18Similar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+8
71.4%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 8 yds to the WVirg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+3
71.4%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Tony Mathis Jr. for 3 yds to the WVirg 31Similar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+15
71.4%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Brian Polendey for 15 yds to the WVirg 46 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
71.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Greene,Garrett pass incomplete short middle to Ford-Wheaton,Bryce PENALTY OSU Holding (Muhammad,Jabbar) 10 yards from WVU46 to OSU44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-11
71.2%
Garrett Greene sacked by Kody Walterscheid for a loss of 11 yards to the WVirg 45Similar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 26
OWN 40
+1
71.4%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Tony Mathis Jr. for 1 yd to the WVirg 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 3PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 1:0970% → 70%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
70.4%
Garret Rangel pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 1 yd to the OKSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 4TD1 play · 36 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 5PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1768% → 66%
WVUDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5034% → 34%
Q1 4:58
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
66.5%
Oliver Straw punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1466% → 65%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
66.3%
Garret Rangel pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 1 yd to the OKSt 21Similar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 11
OWN 21
+10
65.9%
Garret Rangel pass complete to Brennan Presley for 10 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q1 3:44
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
65.4%
Logan Ward punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Preston Fox at the WVirg 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 8PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 2:1035% → 36%
OKSTDrive 9TD5 plays · 46 yds · 1:3866% → 71%
WVUDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 2:5232% → 32%
Q2 14:52
3RD & 10
OWN 33
-10
68.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Greene,Garrett rush right for 35 yards gain to the OSU32, out of bounds at OSU32 PENALTY WVU Holding (Nester,Doug) 10 yards from WVU33 to WVU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 20
OWN 23
+7
68.6%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kaden Prather for 7 yds to the WVirg 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11PUNT11 plays · 33 yds · 3:4768% → 67%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
68.2%
Garret Rangel pass complete to Rashod Owens for 5 yds to the OKSt 20Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+15
67.7%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Taurus Simmons) to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
68.6%
Garret Rangel pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 1 yd to the OKSt 36Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+10
68.7%
Garret Rangel pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 10 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+10
69.2%
Garret Rangel pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 10 yds to the WVirg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 9
OPP 43
-9
69.4%
Garret Rangel sacked by Lanell Carr for a loss of 9 yards to the OKSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 12INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13DOWNS8 plays · 26 yds · 3:3670% → 68%
Q2 8:08
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+8
69.5%
Garret Rangel pass complete to Brennan Presley for 8 yds to the WVirg 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 14PUNT9 plays · 25 yds · 2:1436% → 36%
Q2 4:32
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+10
64.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Greene,Garrett pass incomplete short right to James,Sam, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY OSU Pass Interference (McKinney,D.J.) 10 yards from WVU22 to WVU32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:18
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
64.3%
Oliver Straw punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15FG14 plays · 73 yds · 2:0466% → 69%
WVUDrive 16END OF HALF2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
68.0%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kaden Prather for 7 yds to the WVirg 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 17TD7 plays · 80 yds · 2:1131% → 47%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
68.4%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Sam James for 15 yds to the WVirg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 2:1257% → 56%
Q3 12:38
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
56.3%
Preston Wilson run for no gain to the OKSt 37 Preston Wilson fumbled, recovered by OKSt Preston WilsonSimilar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 7
OWN 37
+5
54.2%
Ward,Logan punt 40 yards to the WVU23 Fox,Preston return 69 yards to the OSU08 (Ward,Logan), out of bounds PENALTY WVU Offside (Del Negro,Anthony) 5 yards from OSU37 to OSU42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:26
4TH & 2
OWN 42
+8
56.2%
Logan Ward punt for 38 yds , Preston Fox returns for 8 yds to the WVirg 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 19TD2 plays · 72 yds · 0:3346% → 64%
OKSTDrive 20FG11 plays · 42 yds · 3:4738% → 39%
Q3 9:46
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+24
39.0%
Ollie Gordon run for 24 yds to the OKLAST 31 for a 1ST down WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Bryce Ford-Wheaton) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 21DOWNS9 plays · 24 yds · 3:4363% → 69%
OKSTDrive 22TD6 plays · 49 yds · 1:5238% → 62%
Q3 2:16
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
37.0%
Garret Rangel pass complete to Brennan Presley for 6 yds to the WVirg 43Similar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
38.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Rangel,Garret pass incomplete short left to Johnson Jr.,Stephon PENALTY WVU Pass Interference (Coleman,Caleb) 15 yards from WVU38 to WVU23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+23
61.8%
Ollie Gordon run for 23 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3351% → 47%
Q4 14:51
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
52.9%
Oliver Straw punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24FUMBLE4 plays · 18 yds · 0:4355% → 59%
Q4 14:08
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
59.4%
Garret Rangel run for 4 yds to the OKSt 49 Garret Rangel fumbled, recovered by WVirg Dante StillsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2755% → 52%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 26PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2353% → 48%
Q4 11:18
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
48.3%
Logan Ward punt for 37 yds , Preston Fox returns for no gain to the WVirg 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 27FG9 plays · 44 yds · 5:1957% → 75%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 28DOWNS11 plays · 47 yds · 4:0733% → 30%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
41.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Rangel,Garret pass incomplete short left PENALTY OSU Holding (Wilson,Preston) 10 yards from WVU35 to WVU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 17
OPP 42
+10
35.7%
Garret Rangel pass complete to Ollie Gordon for 10 yds to the WVirg 32Similar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+4
38.2%
Garret Rangel pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 4 yds to the WVirg 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 29PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 0:2189% → 87%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 30DOWNS4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2224% → 16%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:24
Ollie Gordon run for 23 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+21.8
TD · Q3 9:53
Jaylen Anderson run for 57 yds for a TD, (Casey Legg KICK)
-17.5
FG · Q4 5:59
Casey Legg 34 yd FG GOOD
-16.7