Try the model
BAY

Baylor 27 at Texas 38

TEX
2022 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2022 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4SAFETYTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:44 · Issac Power punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Pregame prior+28.8Home team on offense−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:54: Blake Shapen pass complete to Jaylen Ellis for 47 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +2.1 pts (now 25%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:40: Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 14 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +12.5 pts (now 39%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:21: Roschon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Stone KICK) — TEX win probability +14.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:25: Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Stone KICK) — TEX win probability +25.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:48: Roschon Johnson run for 11 yds for a TD, (Will Stone KICK) — TEX win probability +5.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 2 of 3BAY made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 10:44BAY 4th & 8 at TEX 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:55BAY 4th & 11 at BAY 18, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:00BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 44, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.4%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:04BAY 4th & 6 at TEX 37, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    27.0%−0.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    26.9%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:54BAY 4th & 11 at TEX 12, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    21.6%−5.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:50TEX 4th & 4 at BAY 20, up 2
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.4%−0.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    68.0%−4.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:07BAY 4th & 12 at TEX 46, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    24.8%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:12TEX 4th & 21 at TEX 9, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%−3.8
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:48TEX 4th & 6 at TEX 47, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:25BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 25, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−1.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:50BAY 4th & 1 at TEX 26, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    38.9%−4.4
    64% to make
    Punt
    27.2%−16.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:40BAY 4th & 9 at TEX 22, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−2.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    30.5%−13.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:46BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 32, down 5
    Close callWent for it · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.9%−0.7
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:41BAY 4th & 9 at BAY 38, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−1.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:58BAY 4th & 14 at BAY 21, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.1%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 4 of 5BAY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:54BAY Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:54TEX Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:35TEX Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:40BAY Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:21TEX Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:25TEX Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:48TEX Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 4:1119% → 20%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.7%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
80.6%
Richard Reese run for 8 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
80.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 2 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
80.2%
Craig Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 31Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+18
80.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 18 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
79.8%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Jaylen EllisSimilar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
79.7%
Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the Texas 49Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
79.5%
Qualan Jones run for no gain to the Texas 49Similar
Q1 10:44
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
79.6%
Issac Power punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2SF
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:0080% → 79%
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
79.6%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Hayden Conner) to the Texas 4Similar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 14
OWN 4
+3
79.5%
Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the Texas 7Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 11
OWN 7
0
79.4%
Bijan Robinson run for no gain to the Texas 7Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 11
OWN 7
-7
78.8%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Christian Morgan for a loss of 7 yards for a SAFETY TEXAS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Quinn Ewers) to the Texas 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:3621% → 25%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
78.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Qualan Jones for 3 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+3
78.3%
Qualan Jones run for 3 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+4
78.0%
Craig Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
77.6%
Richard Reese run for 5 yds to the Texas 47Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+47
75.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jaylen Ellis for 47 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3676% → 78%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
76.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 18 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+37
76.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 37 yds to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
76.8%
Bijan Robinson run for 5 yds to the Bayl 15Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+3
76.3%
Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 12Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+9
75.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 9 yds to the Bayl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
76.0%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Xavier WorthySimilar
Q1 3:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
78.1%
Quinn Ewers run for 3 yds for a TD, (Will Stone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4223% → 23%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
76.7%
Qualan Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 18Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 11
OWN 18
0
76.6%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 11
OWN 18
0
76.9%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q1 2:55
4TH & 11
OWN 18
0
77.1%
Issac Power punt for 11 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6TD
3 plays · 29 yds · 1:0878% → 79%
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+19
77.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Keilan Robinson for 19 yds to the Bayl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
77.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 8 yds to the Bayl 2Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
79.0%
Bijan Robinson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Will Stone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7FG
19 plays · 63 yds · 8:2522% → 25%
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
78.2%
Richard Reese run for 8 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
77.3%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:47
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
77.9%
Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
77.6%
Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 35Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
77.9%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q2 14:31
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+9
78.2%
Blake Shapen run for 9 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q2 14:00
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+15
77.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 15 yds to the Texas 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
76.2%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ben SimsSimilar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
76.1%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the Texas 40Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+3
76.2%
Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the Texas 37Similar
Q2 12:04
4TH & 6
OPP 37
+16
76.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 16 yds to the Texas 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
75.0%
Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the Texas 18Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+3
74.8%
Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the Texas 15Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+4
75.4%
Qualan Jones run for 4 yds to the Texas 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
74.9%
Blake Shapen run for no gain to the Texas 11Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+4
74.3%
Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the Texas 7Similar
Q2 8:09
3RD & 6
OPP 7
-5
75.1%
Richard Reese run for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 12Similar
Q2 7:54
4TH & 11
OPP 12
+30
75.0%
John Mayers 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8FG
7 plays · 55 yds · 1:5576% → 78%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
76.1%
Roschon Johnson run for 21 yds to the Texas 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+28
77.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 28 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
78.0%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Ja'Tavion SandersSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+6
77.9%
Roschon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 4
OPP 20
0
77.2%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Ja'Tavion SandersSimilar
Q2 5:50
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+38
78.4%
Bert Auburn 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:3323% → 23%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
76.6%
Qualan Jones run for 9 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
75.1%
Qualan Jones run for 1 yd to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
75.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Qualan Jones for 6 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+15
74.4%
Richard Reese run for 15 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
73.8%
Qualan Jones run for 1 yd to the Texas 43Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 9
OPP 43
-4
73.5%
Blake Shapen sacked by Alfred Collins for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 47Similar
Q2 2:14
3RD & 13
OPP 47
+1
76.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Qualan Jones for 1 yd to the Texas 46Similar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
76.6%
Issac Power punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:4878% → 77%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
77.9%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Gabe Hall for a loss of 10 yards to the Texas 10Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+8
77.4%
Bijan Robinson run for 8 yds to the Texas 18Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 12
OWN 18
-9
76.7%
Quinn Ewers sacked by TJ Franklin for a loss of 9 yards to the Texas 9Similar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 21
OWN 9
0
76.5%
Daniel Trejo punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Monaray Baldwin at the Texas 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 0:2724% → 39%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
75.7%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+12
76.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 12 yds to the Texas 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
74.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 12 yds to the Texas 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
74.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 7 yds to the Texas 14Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+14
61.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 14 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-8
66.6%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Bryson Jackson for a loss of 8 yards to the Texas 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:0367% → 66%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
67.2%
Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
67.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 14 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
69.1%
Bijan Robinson run for no gain to the Texas 43Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
67.9%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Jordan WhittingtonSimilar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+9
66.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 9 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q3 13:15
4TH & 1
OPP 48
-5
67.6%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 47Similar
Q3 12:48
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
65.5%
Daniel Trejo punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0536% → 35%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
63.7%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
64.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 3 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
64.4%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:25
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
65.5%
Issac Power punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15FUMBLE
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:1266% → 65%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
66.0%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Hayden Conner) to the Texas 32Similar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 15
OWN 32
-5
64.8%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Hayden Conner) to the Texas 27Similar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+29
64.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 29 yds Jordan Whittington fumbled, forced by Al Walcott, recovered by Bayl Devin LemearSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16MISSED FG
13 plays · 34 yds · 5:1539% → 42%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
60.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Qualan Jones for 1 yd to the Bayl 45Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+4
60.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 4 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+6
60.1%
Qualan Jones run for 6 yds to the Texas 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
58.9%
Blake Shapen run for 6 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+4
58.3%
Qualan Jones run for 4 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
57.2%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+7
57.2%
Qualan Jones run for 7 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+2
57.7%
Qualan Jones run for 2 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q3 6:50
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+3
59.0%
Blake Shapen run for 3 yds to the Texas 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
54.0%
Qualan Jones run for 1 yd to the Texas 22Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
53.7%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
55.8%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Qualan JonesSimilar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+40
58.3%
John Mayers 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 3:0461% → 80%
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
60.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 7 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+4
63.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 4 yds to the Texas 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
60.8%
Bijan Robinson run for 13 yds to the Texas 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
63.9%
Bijan Robinson run for 12 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
64.6%
Bijan Robinson run for 6 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+6
64.5%
Roschon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
65.8%
Roschon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+19
65.6%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 19 yds to the Bayl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
65.4%
Roschon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Bayl 1Similar
Q3 2:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.8%
Roschon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Stone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 2:2026% → 25%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.6%
Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
72.7%
Qualan Jones run for 3 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q3 1:03
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
73.4%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Qualan JonesSimilar
Q3 0:46
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+5
74.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Qualan Jones for 5 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
72.0%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the Bayl 38Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
71.8%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
73.1%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Jaylen EllisSimilar
Q4 14:41
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
74.8%
Issac Power punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Xavier Worthy at the Texas 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19FUMBLE TD
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0076% → 54%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
75.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 7 yds to the Texas 23Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+1
76.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 1 yd to the Texas 24Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+9
75.3%
Bijan Robinson run for 9 yds to the Texas 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
54.2%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Al Walcott for a loss of 17 yards Quinn Ewers fumbled, forced by Al Walcott, recovered by Bayl Gabe Hall , return for 0 yards , return for 16 yds, (Blake Shapen pass to Hal Presley for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20TD
13 plays · 74 yds · 4:5053% → 79%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
53.4%
Bijan Robinson run for 9 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
56.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 7 yds to the Texas 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
54.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+12
55.1%
Bijan Robinson run for 12 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
56.3%
Roschon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+2
55.1%
Roschon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+8
52.3%
Bijan Robinson run for 8 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+23
54.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 23 yds to the Bayl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
55.0%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the Bayl 5Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
54.7%
Roschon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Bayl 3Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 0
OPP 3
+1
53.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, Delay of Game (1 Yards) to the Bayl 2Similar
Q4 8:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.8%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Stone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21INT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2829% → 28%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
71.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 11 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-8
67.7%
Blake Shapen sacked by DeMarvion Overshown for a loss of 8 yards to the Bayl 38Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 18
OWN 38
+5
71.7%
Qualan Jones run for 5 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q4 6:28
3RD & 13
OWN 43
-18
72.4%
Blake Shapen pass intercepted Jaylan Ford return for 18 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22TD
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:2084% → 96%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
83.8%
Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+13
85.0%
Bijan Robinson run for 13 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
85.7%
Roschon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+6
88.2%
Roschon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
88.8%
Roschon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Bayl 11Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+11
95.9%
Roschon Johnson run for 11 yds for a TD, (Will Stone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:455% → 4%
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.9%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Qualan JonesSimilar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-6
95.0%
Blake Shapen sacked by Jahdae Barron for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 19Similar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+2
96.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Qualan Jones for 2 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
96.3%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 24END OF GAME
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:5397% → 97%
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
96.8%
Bijan Robinson run for 6 yds to the Bayl 15Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+8
96.9%
Bijan Robinson run for 8 yds to the Bayl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
97.3%
Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the Bayl 3Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
97.5%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the Bayl 2Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
97.4%
Bijan Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:25
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Stone KICK)
+25.4
TD · Q3 2:21
Roschon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Stone KICK)
+14.4
TD · Q2 0:40
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 14 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)
-12.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com