2022 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2022 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreOKST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:40 · Michael Turk punt for 55 yds , Brennan Presley returns for 5 yds to the OKSt 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:09: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 23 yds for a TD, (Zach Schmit KICK) — OU win probability +6.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 4:05: Tanner Brown 24 Yd Field Goal — OKST win probability +10.9 pts (now 16%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 3:56: Tanner Brown kickoff for 62 yds , Billy Bowman return for 3 yds to the Okla 44 , Marvin Mims Jr. return for 38 yds to the Okla 44 — OU win probability +5.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:03: Quinton Stewart 2 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Tanner Brown Kick) — OKST win probability +4.4 pts (now 7%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
- FG · Q4 12:37: Tanner Brown 25 Yd Field Goal — OKST win probability +3.2 pts (now 8%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 8 of 12OKST made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
- Q1 12:29OKST 4th & 5 at OKST 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snapGo for it30.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.2%average punt
- Q1 8:53OU 4th & 12 at OU 48, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snapGo for it71.9%−0.423% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.3%average punt
- Q1 6:04OKST 4th & 16 at OKST 13, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snapGo for it21.6%−1.014% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.6%average punt
- Q1 2:40OKST 4th & 4 at OKST 25, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snapGo for it19.0%−0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.0%average punt
- Q2 11:29OU 4th & 4 at OU 21, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snapGo for it91.5%−0.847% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.2%average punt
- Q2 10:04OKST 4th & 5 at OKST 48, down 28Close callPunted · 7.4% before the snapGo for it7.3%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 8:40OU 4th & 9 at OU 5, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snapGo for it91.4%−0.728% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.1%average punt
- Q2 2:42OU 4th & 5 at OKST 36, up 22Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.0%42% to convertField goal91.7%−0.342% to makePunt91.3%−0.6average punt
- Q2 1:09OKST 4th & 2 at OKST 40, down 22Close callPunted · 8.4% before the snapGo for it8.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.3%−0.1average punt
- Q3 13:54OKST 4th & 6 at OKST 29, down 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snapGo for it6.9%−0.439% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.3%average punt
- Q3 12:32OU 4th & 15 at OU 33, up 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snapGo for it93.2%−1.516% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.7%average punt
- Q3 9:33OKST 4th & 2 at OU 17, down 22Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.4%56% to convertField goal4.6%−0.780% to makePunt-0.4%−5.8average punt
- Q3 8:24OU 4th & 6 at OU 33, up 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.4% before the snapGo for it95.4%−0.539% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.9%average punt
- Q3 4:33OKST 4th & 14 at OU 41, down 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snapGo for it3.0%−0.519% to convertField goal3.3%−0.332% to makePuntTheir call3.6%average punt
- Q3 3:20OU 4th & 5 at OU 18, up 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.8% before the snapGo for it96.7%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.9%average punt
- Q4 14:52OU 4th & 8 at OU 24, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snapGo for it95.4%−0.732% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.1%average punt
- Q4 12:37OKST 4th & 6 at OU 8, down 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.6% before the snapGo for it4.2%−0.232% to convertField goalTheir call4.4%90% to makePunt0.0%−4.4average punt
- Q4 11:25OU 4th & 3 at OU 25, up 15Close callPunted · 94.8% before the snapGo for it95.0%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.9%−0.2average punt
- Q4 10:03OKST 4th & 19 at OKST 18, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snapGo for it3.9%−0.910% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.8%average punt
- Q4 8:36OU 4th & 2 at OU 48, up 15Close callPunted · 95.9% before the snapGo for it96.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.5%−0.5average punt
- Q4 4:24OU 4th & 1 at OU 29, up 15Close callPunted · 96.9% before the snapGo for it97.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.7%−0.6average punt
- Q4 2:48OKST 4th & 26 at OKST 11, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q4 1:48OU 4th & 5 at OU 42, up 15Close callPunted · 98.1% before the snapGo for it98.1%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 0:16OKST 4th & 5 at OU 27, down 15Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.5%41% to convertField goal2.4%−0.162% to makePunt1.6%−1.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 13:43OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.5%97% to makeGo for two69.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:44OU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.0%97% to makeGo for two71.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:57OU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.2%97% to makeGo for two77.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:09OU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.8%97% to makeGo for two89.7%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOUDrive 1TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:1365% → 66%
Q1 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
65.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 13 yds to the Okla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
65.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marvin Mims Jr. for 7 yds to the Okla 45Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+20
65.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Eric Gray for 20 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+33
65.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 33 yds to the OKSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0235% → 34%
OUDrive 3TD9 plays · 93 yds · 2:3466% → 69%
Q1 12:00
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+19
65.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marvin Mims Jr. for 19 yds to the Okla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
65.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 12 yds to the Okla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
66.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gavin Freeman for 4 yds to the OKSt 30Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+30
68.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 30 yds for a TD, (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
68.1%
Spencer Sanders pass intercepted C.J. Coldon return for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 0:2869% → 69%
Q1 8:53
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
68.5%
Michael Turk punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Braylin Presley at the OKSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6INT3 plays · 9 yds · 0:3431% → 31%
OUDrive 7TD2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0970% → 73%
OKSTDrive 8PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 1:2827% → 25%
OUDrive 9FUMBLE3 plays · 54 yds · 0:3575% → 76%
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
75.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 3 yds to the Okla 46Similar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+16
75.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brayden Willis for 16 yds Brayden Willis fumbled, forced by Jabbar Muhammad, recovered by OKSt Jason Taylor IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 2:3024% → 21%
Q1 4:20
3RD & 2
OWN 11
+8
76.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Braden Cassity for 8 yds to the OKSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+2
77.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 2 yds to the OKSt 21Similar
Q1 3:14
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+4
78.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 4 yds to the OKSt 25Similar
Q1 2:40
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
78.7%
Logan Ward punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Marvin Mims Jr. at the Okla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 11TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2678% → 86%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
77.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brayden Willis for 6 yds to the Okla 31Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+16
78.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marvin Mims Jr. for 16 yds to the Okla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+22
79.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marvin Mims Jr. for 22 yds to the OKSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
85.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 23 yds for a TD, (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 12INT10 plays · 51 yds · 3:1712% → 10%
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+20
87.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 20 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+14
88.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 14 yds to the Okla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+6
90.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 6 yds to the Okla 23Similar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 9
OPP 23
-8
90.3%
Spencer Sanders pass intercepted Billy Bowman return for 8 yds to the Okla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5191% → 91%
Q2 11:29
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
90.8%
Michael Turk punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 1:169% → 8%
OUDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1692% → 91%
Q2 8:40
4TH & 9
OWN 5
+5
91.1%
Michael Turk punt for 55 yds , Brennan Presley returns for 5 yds to the OKSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16FG10 plays · 48 yds · 4:247% → 16%
Q2 5:49
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+8
94.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 8 yds to the Okla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
95.7%
John Paul Richardson sacked by Jonah Laulu and Jordan Kelley for a loss of 10 yards to the Okla 20 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Okla 20Similar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 0
OPP 20
-3
94.8%
Spencer Sanders sacked by Ethan Downs for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 23Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 0
OPP 23
+16
94.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Rashod Owens for 16 yds to the Okla 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17DOWNS6 plays · 24 yds · 1:0092% → 91%
OKSTDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2710% → 9%
Q2 1:09
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
90.8%
Logan Ward punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Damond Harmon at the Okla 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19INT9 plays · 50 yds · 0:5593% → 93%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
92.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Eric Gray for 7 yds to the Okla 28Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+13
92.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brayden Willis for 13 yds to the Okla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
93.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marcus Major for 3 yds to the Okla 44Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+5
93.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 5 yds to the Okla 49Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 10
OPP 29
-11
93.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass intercepted Jason Taylor II return for 11 yds to the OKSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:009% → 9%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:018% → 8%
OUDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 1:0893% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 23DOWNS8 plays · 80 yds · 2:547% → 6%
Q3 12:11
3RD & 4
OWN 10
+47
93.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 47 yds to the Okla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
93.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 18 yds to the Okla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+6
94.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 6 yds to the Okla 17Similar
Q3 9:33
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+1
94.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 1 yd to the Okla 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 24PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 1:0195% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 25PUNT9 plays · 39 yds · 3:385% → 4%
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+27
95.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 27 yds to the Okla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
95.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 4 yds to the Okla 33Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 7
OPP 34
-2
95.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaden Nixon for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 36Similar
Q3 4:33
4TH & 14
OPP 41
0
96.5%
Logan Ward punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Marvin Mims Jr. at the Okla 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 26PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5197% → 97%
Q3 3:20
4TH & 5
OWN 18
+13
96.7%
Michael Turk punt for 56 yds , Brennan Presley returns for 13 yds to the OKSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 27TD8 plays · 61 yds · 2:103% → 7%
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+20
96.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 20 yds to the Okla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
96.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Braden Cassity for 12 yds to the Okla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 12
OPP 15
+13
97.3%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Woodi Washington) to the Okla 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.9%
Quinton Stewart 2 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Tanner Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 28PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5995% → 96%
OKSTDrive 29FG6 plays · 59 yds · 2:096% → 8%
OUDrive 30PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5995% → 95%
Q4 11:25
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
94.6%
Michael Turk punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 31PUNT4 plays · -9 yds · 0:577% → 5%
OUDrive 32PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2196% → 96%
OKSTDrive 33INT13 plays · 70 yds · 2:455% → 6%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
94.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 12 yds to the Okla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+11
94.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Bryson Green for 11 yds to the Okla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+10
94.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 10 yds to the Okla 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
93.6%
Spencer Sanders pass intercepted, touchback. DaShaun White return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 34PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0597% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 35PUNT4 plays · -16 yds · 1:323% → 2%
OUDrive 36PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5398% → 99%
Q4 1:48
4TH & 5
OWN 42
+3
98.6%
Michael Turk punt for 39 yds , Brennan Presley returns for 3 yds to the OKSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 37DOWNS12 plays · 51 yds · 1:272% → 1%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
97.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 11 yds to the OKSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
97.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 11 yds to the OKSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+10
97.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 10 yds to the Okla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
97.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for no gain to the Okla 46Similar
Q4 0:41
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+14
99.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 14 yds to the Okla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
98.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 5 yds to the Okla 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 38END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 4:05
Tanner Brown 24 Yd Field Goal
-10.9
TD · Q1 1:09
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 23 yds for a TD, (Zach Schmit KICK)
+6.2
KEY PLAY · Q2 3:56
Tanner Brown kickoff for 62 yds , Billy Bowman return for 3 yds to the Okla 44 , Marvin Mims Jr. return for 38 yds to the Okla 44
+5.4