2022 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2022 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreTTU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:35 · Austin McNamara punt for 40 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- MISSED FG · Q1 12:31: Drake Nettles 30 yd FG MISSED — ISU win probability +15.8 pts (now 56%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- TD · Q4 11:18: Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Easton Dean for 24 yds for a TD, (Jace Gilbert KICK), (Jace Gilbert KICK) — ISU win probability +33.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:10: Tyler Shough pass complete to Baylor Cupp for 4 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK) — TTU win probability +52.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:28: Tyler Shough run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 28 — TTU win probability +15.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:00: End of 4th Quarter — ISU win probability +17.4 pts (now 22%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9TTU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 11:00TTU 4th & 7 at TTU 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snapGo for it39.0%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.1%average punt
- Q1 7:29ISU 4th & 24 at TTU 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snapGo for it60.0%−0.37% to convertField goal60.3%−<0.138% to makePuntTheir call60.3%average punt
- Q1 5:35TTU 4th & 4 at TTU 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snapGo for it39.2%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.2%average punt
- Q1 2:27ISU 4th & 6 at TTU 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snapGo for it60.9%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.9%average punt
- Q1 12:31ISU 4th & 7 at TTU 13, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.7% before the snapGo for it60.7%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call60.7%85% to makePunt60.3%−0.5average punt
- Q2 2:30ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 49, down 4Close callPunted · 53.7% before the snapGo for it53.2%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.6%−0.6average punt
- Q2 1:06TTU 4th & 15 at TTU 44, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snapGo for it45.7%−1.717% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.4%average punt
- Q2 6:38ISU 4th & 15 at TTU 19, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.5% before the snapGo for it51.6%−1.715% to convertField goalTheir call53.3%77% to makePunt47.9%−5.4average punt
- Q2 5:34TTU 4th & 3 at TTU 35, up 4Close callPunted · 45.7% before the snapGo for it46.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.7%−0.4average punt
- Q3 11:34TTU 4th & 5 at TTU 26, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snapGo for it48.7%−0.840% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.5%average punt
- Q3 7:29ISU 4th & 1 at TTU 2, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call50.3%60% to convertField goal46.2%−4.294% to makePunt34.9%−15.5average punt
- Q3 5:41TTU 4th & 11 at TTU 4, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snapGo for it46.7%−4.922% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.7%average punt
- Q3 0:31ISU 4th & 2 at TTU 2, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call45.2%48% to convertField goal42.1%−3.294% to makePunt28.1%−17.1average punt
- Q3 12:33ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 47, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snapGo for it51.2%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.5%average punt
- Q4 14:17TTU 4th & 11 at TTU 4, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.4% before the snapGo for it52.3%−6.422% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.7%average punt
- Q4 2:45ISU 4th & 15 at ISU 44, down 4Close callPunted · 27.7% before the snapGo for it20.0%17% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.9%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TTU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q2 12:23TTU Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call48.2%97% to makeGo for two48.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:18ISU Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.3%97% to makeGo for two66.7%−0.645% to convert
- Q4 6:10TTU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call63.6%−0.497% to makeGo for two64.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTTUDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3144% → 44%
ISUDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 3:3156% → 56%
Q1 11:00
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+8
56.5%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 8 yds to the TexTc 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5444% → 43%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 3:0856% → 57%
TTUDrive 5FUMBLE10 plays · 7 yds · 13:5644% → 44%
Q1 13:56
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+7
55.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Myles Price for 7 yds Tyler Shough fumbled, recovered by IowSt Will McLaughlinSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 26
-3
55.4%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Xavier White for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 23Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+5
56.3%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to Jerand Bradley IOWA ST Penalty, off-side (Isaiah Lee) to the TexTc 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6MISSED FG4 plays · 3 yds · 12:3156% → 57%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7TD14 plays · 96 yds · 2:3745% → 53%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+15
54.9%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 15 yds to the TexTc 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
54.6%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 2 yds to the TexTc 21Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+7
54.6%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Nehemiah Martinez I for 7 yds to the TexTc 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+12
54.1%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 12 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+28
52.8%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Myles Price for 28 yds to the IowSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
52.6%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Henry Teeter for 3 yds to the IowSt 1Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
46.9%
Donovan Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK), (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 3:0451% → 51%
Q2 5:34
3RD & 18
OWN 36
+13
49.8%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Cartevious Norton for 13 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 26 yds · 1:2452% → 50%
Q2 2:19
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+29
48.5%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Xavier White for 29 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10TD1 play · 82 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 11PUNT1 play · 7 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12MISSED FG1 play · 66 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5953% → 51%
Q3 12:33
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
46.6%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to Myles Price, broken up by Beau FreylerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14DOWNS9 plays · 55 yds · 4:0551% → 48%
TTUDrive 15PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:4855% → 52%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16DOWNS10 plays · 40 yds · 5:1051% → 44%
Q3 5:41
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+13
50.1%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to DeShawn Hanika for 13 yds to the TexTc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+15
50.4%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Eli Sanders for 15 yds to the TexTc 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+10
52.6%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Eli Sanders for 10 yds to the TexTc 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17PUNT3 plays · 31 yds · 12:3348% → 41%
TTUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4362% → 59%
ISUDrive 19TD1 play · 53 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q4 11:18
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+24
74.7%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Easton Dean for 24 yds for a TD, (Jace Gilbert KICK), (Jace Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20TD1 play · 77 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q4 6:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
21.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Baylor Cupp for 4 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 19 yds · 1:0033% → 28%
Q4 3:45
3RD & 12
OWN 47
-10
33.2%
IOWA ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Darrell Simmons Jr.) to the IowSt 37Similar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+16
32.3%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to DeShawn Hanika for 16 yds Hunter Dekkers fumbled, recovered by IowSt DeShawn Hanika for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
4TH & 15
OWN 44
+4
27.5%
Tyler Perkins punt for 45 yds , Myles Price returns for 4 yds to the TexTc 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:10
Tyler Shough pass complete to Baylor Cupp for 4 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)
-52.9
TD · Q4 11:18
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Easton Dean for 24 yds for a TD, (Jace Gilbert KICK), (Jace Gilbert KICK)
+33.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-22.1