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TCU

TCU 29 at Baylor 28

BAY
2022 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2022 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:12 · Dillon Doyle run for 2 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Pregame prior−10.5Home team on offense+0.3Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:34: Max Duggan pass complete to Gunnar Henderson for 26 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell PAT MISSED) — TCU win probability +15.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:54: Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 12 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +22.6 pts (now 62%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:47: Richard Reese run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +20.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:07: Emari Demercado run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — TCU win probability +26.7 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Griffin Kell 40 yd FG GOOD — TCU win probability +70.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 5 of 8TCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:12BAY 4th & 1 at TCU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    47.5%−0.2
    81% to make
    Punt
    46.8%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:06TCU 4th & 5 at TCU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:56BAY 4th & 15 at TCU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    50.1%−1.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:52BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    49.9%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:05BAY 4th & 1 at TCU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    51.3%−2.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    50.5%−3.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:37TCU 4th & 9 at BAY 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    51.5%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:25TCU 4th & 8 at BAY 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:29BAY 4th & 13 at BAY 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−3.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:35BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 19, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.3 ptsPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%−3.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:49TCU 4th & 12 at TCU 43, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−4.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:52TCU 4th & 9 at TCU 26, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−2.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:48BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 40, up 8
    Close callPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:34BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 26, up 2
    Close callPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:00TCU 4th & 5 at BAY 24, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−33.4
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−43.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:15BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:20TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:05BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:00TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:34TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:54BAY Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:47BAY Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−1.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:07TCU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    28.7%−1.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    29.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 5:3839% → 44%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
38.7%
Craig Williams run for 5 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+7
38.9%
Qualan Jones run for 7 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
39.2%
Craig Williams run for 6 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+14
39.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 14 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
39.8%
Craig Williams run for 19 yds to the TCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
40.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Craig Williams for 6 yds to the TCU 19Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+3
40.4%
Blake Shapen run for 3 yds to the TCU 16Similar
Q1 10:52
3RD & 1
OPP 16
0
40.6%
Craig Williams run for no gain to the TCU 16Similar
Q1 10:12
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
40.7%
Dillon Doyle run for 2 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
41.3%
Monaray Baldwin run for 4 yds to the TCU 10Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
43.6%
Qualan Jones run for 10 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5457% → 56%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
42.9%
Kendre Miller run for 1 yd to the TCU 26Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
43.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 4 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
43.6%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q1 8:06
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
44.0%
Jordy Sandy punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Monaray Baldwin at the Bayl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3MISSED FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:0244% → 46%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+27
43.9%
Richard Reese run for 27 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
44.9%
Monaray Baldwin run for 3 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+10
45.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 10 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
45.8%
Richard Reese run for 10 yds to the TCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
46.3%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Kelsey JohnsonSimilar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
46.4%
Qualan Jones run for no gain to the TCU 23Similar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 10
OPP 23
-5
46.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Mose Jeffery) to the TCU 28Similar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 15
OPP 28
0
46.2%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q1 4:56
4TH & 15
OPP 28
+46
45.5%
John Mayers 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 3:3054% → 59%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
45.8%
Kendre Miller run for no gain to the TCU 28Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+39
46.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 39 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
44.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Trent Battle for 10 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
45.2%
Kendre Miller run for 5 yds to the Bayl 18Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+10
45.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 10 yds to the Bayl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
45.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Kendre Miller for 1 yd to the Bayl 7Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
40.6%
Max Duggan run for 7 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0944% → 53%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.5%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Kelsey JohnsonSimilar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
43.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Khalil Keith) to the Bayl 20Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+3
43.4%
Monaray Baldwin run for 3 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+42
43.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 42 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
46.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 9 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+5
46.4%
Craig Williams run for 5 yds to the TCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
46.5%
Craig Williams run for 5 yds to the TCU 16Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 5
OPP 16
-1
46.8%
Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 17Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+15
46.3%
Qualan Jones run for 15 yds to the TCU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
53.4%
Kelsey Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 90 yds · 2:4849% → 59%
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+77
51.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 77 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
48.5%
Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the Bayl 10Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+4
48.8%
Kendre Miller run for 4 yds to the Bayl 6Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+4
50.6%
Duggan, Max pass incomplete to Johnston, Quentin, PENALTY BAYLOR pass interference (Milton, Mark) 4 yards to the BAYLOR2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU.Similar
Q2 9:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
49.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for no gain to the Bayl 2Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
41.4%
Kendre Miller run for 2 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7DOWNS
12 plays · 37 yds · 5:3846% → 49%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
46.3%
Craig Williams run for 9 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 1
OWN 33
-4
47.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Craig Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 29Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+4
45.9%
Craig Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q2 6:52
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+3
45.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dillon Doyle for 3 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
47.7%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
47.4%
Blake Shapen run for 6 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+13
48.3%
Craig Williams run for 13 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
50.5%
Blake Shapen sacked by Johnny Hodges and Dylan Horton for a loss of 10 yards to the Bayl 45Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 20
OWN 45
+4
48.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 4 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q2 3:34
3RD & 16
OWN 49
+15
47.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 15 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q2 3:05
4TH & 1
OPP 36
-3
49.2%
Craig Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:2257% → 56%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
43.1%
Kendre Miller run for 10 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
42.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Kendre Miller for 13 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
41.7%
Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 8
OPP 36
-1
41.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Emari Demercado for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 37Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
41.8%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Geor'Quarius SpiveySimilar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
44.3%
Jordy Sandy punt for 24 yds, downed at the Bayl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9INT
12 plays · 76 yds · 1:2648% → 53%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
48.0%
Craig Williams run for 9 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+3
48.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 3 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
48.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Qualan Jones for 4 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+17
48.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 17 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
51.1%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Qualan JonesSimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
50.1%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+13
48.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Cameron Bonner for 13 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
51.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 14 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
52.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 8 yds to the TCU 19Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+8
52.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 8 yds to the TCU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
52.8%
Blake Shapen pass intercepted, touchback. Bud Clark return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
44.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:2955% → 53%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.3%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Taye BarberSimilar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
45.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 13 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
43.9%
Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+7
43.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Emari Demercado for 7 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+2
43.3%
Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
42.9%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
43.5%
Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
44.3%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q3 11:25
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
46.7%
Jordy Sandy punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Monaray Baldwin at the Bayl 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:4650% → 47%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-3
49.6%
Richard Reese run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 13Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 13
OWN 13
0
49.3%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 13
OWN 13
0
47.9%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q3 10:29
4TH & 13
OWN 13
+6
47.3%
Issac Power punt for 48 yds , Taye Barber returns for 6 yds to the TCU 19 TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (Bud Clark) to the TCU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:3854% → 56%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
46.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for no gain to the TCU 30Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+10
47.2%
Kendre Miller run for 10 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
45.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 5 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
44.2%
Max Duggan pass intercepted Devin Neal return for no gain to the Bayl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0050% → 49%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
50.3%
Craig Williams run for 6 yds to the Bayl 16Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 4
OWN 16
-1
50.6%
Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 15Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+4
49.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Richard Reese for 4 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 1
OWN 19
+12
48.6%
Issac Power punt for 44 yds , Taye Barber returns for 12 yds to the TCU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15TD
3 plays · 51 yds · 0:5656% → 72%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
44.1%
Kendre Miller run for 5 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+20
43.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Gunnar Henderson for 20 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
28.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Gunnar Henderson for 26 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 5:2636% → 62%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
35.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 10 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
33.8%
Craig Williams run for 7 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+6
36.6%
Richard Reese run for 6 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
36.5%
Blake Shapen run for 9 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+20
38.0%
Craig Williams run for 20 yds to the TCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
39.7%
Craig Williams run for 3 yds to the TCU 22Similar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+7
39.7%
Richard Reese run for 7 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
39.7%
Blake Shapen run for 3 yds to the TCU 12Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
39.7%
Richard Reese run for no gain to the TCU 12Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+12
62.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 12 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17FUMBLE
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:5843% → 41%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
56.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Trent Battle for 10 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
55.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Blair Conwright for 10 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
52.3%
Max Duggan run for 1 yd to the TCU 46Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 9
OWN 46
-10
52.7%
Duggan, Max rush for 2 yards to the TCU48, PENALTY TCU holding (Lanz, John) 10 yards to the TCU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 19
OWN 36
+7
57.2%
Max Duggan run for 7 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 12
OWN 43
0
57.1%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:49
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
59.5%
Jordy Sandy punt for 39 yds , Monaray Baldwin returns for no gain to the Bayl 16 Monaray Baldwin fumbled, recovered by Bayl Monaray BaldwinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18TD
5 plays · 84 yds · 1:5459% → 88%
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-4
58.8%
Craig Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 12Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 14
OWN 12
+3
58.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Craig Williams for 3 yds to the Bayl 15Similar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 11
OWN 15
+74
56.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 74 yds to the TCU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
66.7%
Richard Reese run for 10 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.5%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4216% → 13%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
84.3%
Emari Demercado run for 1 yd to the TCU 26Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
84.5%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Blair ConwrightSimilar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
85.8%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:52
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
86.6%
Jordy Sandy punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Monaray Baldwin at the Bayl 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5286% → 88%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
86.3%
Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+4
87.4%
Craig Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q4 7:02
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+1
89.0%
Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 6:48
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
88.2%
Issac Power punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Taye Barber at the TCU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21TD
11 plays · 90 yds · 4:3114% → 45%
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
86.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 5 yds to the TCU 15Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+22
87.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 22 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
85.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Gunnar Henderson for 6 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+3
84.5%
Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+21
85.7%
Max Duggan run for 21 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
83.2%
Max Duggan run for no gain to the Bayl 33Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
84.0%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Blair ConwrightSimilar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+15
85.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jared Wiley for 15 yds to the Bayl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
82.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 7 yds to the Bayl 11Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+8
81.7%
Emari Demercado run for 8 yds to the Bayl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
55.0%
Emari Demercado run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:2479% → 80%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
78.7%
Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 8
OWN 20
-2
78.5%
Qualan Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 18Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+8
80.4%
Blake Shapen run for 8 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q4 1:34
4TH & 2
OWN 26
+3
80.3%
Issac Power punt for 46 yds , Taye Barber returns for 3 yds to the TCU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23END OF GAME
9 plays · 45 yds · 1:3022% → 92%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
77.7%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Emari DemercadoSimilar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+19
80.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
50
+9
76.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 9 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 1
OPP 41
0
74.8%
Max Duggan run for no gain to the Bayl 41Similar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+12
75.7%
Max Duggan run for 12 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
73.2%
Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
73.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+2
78.1%
Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+40
7.6%
Griffin Kell 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Griffin Kell 40 yd FG GOOD
-70.5
TD · Q4 2:07
Emari Demercado run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-26.7
TD · Q4 14:54
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 12 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)
+22.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com