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TCU

TCU 17 at Texas 10

TEX
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFUMBLEEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:46 · Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Ja'Tavion Sanders
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 157Pregame prior+1.7Home team on offense−31.7Score differential−16.7Garbage-time factor−13.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−7.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:08: Kendre Miller run for 75 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +18.9 pts (now 67%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 0:58: Bert Auburn 22 yd FG GOOD — TEX win probability +9.2 pts (now 42%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:36: Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 31 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +14.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:25: Will Stone kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — TEX win probability +11.4 pts (now 23%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:15: Kendre Miller run for 6 yds to the TCU 31 — TCU win probability +9.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 7 of 12TCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 14:08TCU 4th & 10 at TCU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:48TEX 4th & 1 at TCU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.0%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    70.0%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:54TCU 4th & 18 at TCU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:29TEX 4th & 16 at TEX 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:18TCU 4th & 15 at TEX 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    31.0%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:35TEX 4th & 7 at TEX 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:22TCU 4th & 15 at TEX 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.7
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    30.1%−2.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:15TEX 4th & 15 at TEX 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:50TCU 4th & 10 at TEX 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    33.2%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 10:36TCU 4th & 18 at TEX 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−0.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    33.0%−0.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 8:05TEX 4th & 7 at TEX 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:20TCU 4th & 3 at TEX 16, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.3%−0.3
    81% to make
    Punt
    33.6%−6.0
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:01TEX 4th & 1 at TEX 49, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%−2.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:25TEX 4th & 13 at TEX 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−3.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:24TCU 4th & 13 at TCU 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−3.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:58TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−1.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:20TEX 4th & 7 at TCU 47, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.6%
    average punt
  18. Q3 0:58TEX 4th & 4 at TCU 4, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.7%−1.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    16.9%−12.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:40TEX 4th & 10 at TCU 10, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.1%−1.6
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    13.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−7.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:09TCU 4th & 5 at TCU 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:46TEX 4th & 17 at TEX 38, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q3 5:08TCU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 12:36TCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:1229% → 29%
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
70.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 5 yds to the TCU 17Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 5
OWN 17
0
70.9%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 5
OWN 17
-5
70.9%
TCU Penalty, False Start (Andrew Coker) to the TCU 12Similar
Q1 14:13
3RD & 10
OWN 12
0
70.9%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Kendre MillerSimilar
Q1 14:08
4TH & 10
OWN 12
0
71.0%
Jordy Sandy punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Xavier Worthy at the TCU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1571% → 71%
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
71.0%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Xavier WorthySimilar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
71.0%
Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+6
70.9%
Roschon Johnson run for 6 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q1 12:48
4TH & 1
OPP 34
0
70.8%
Bijan Robinson run for no gain to the TCU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:3629% → 29%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
70.6%
Taye Barber run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 32Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+5
70.6%
Kendre Miller run for 5 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 7
OWN 37
-11
70.5%
Max Duggan sacked by Barryn Sorrell for a loss of 11 yards to the TCU 26Similar
Q1 10:54
4TH & 18
OWN 26
+54
70.6%
Jordy Sandy punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Xavier Worthy at the TEXAS 30 TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Texas 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:0170% → 70%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
70.3%
Roschon Johnson run for no gain to the Texas 20Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
70.2%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Xavier WorthySimilar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-6
70.0%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Dylan Horton for a loss of 6 yards to the Texas 14Similar
Q1 9:29
4TH & 16
OWN 14
0
69.8%
Daniel Trejo punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the Texas 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:5731% → 30%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
69.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 11
50
+15
69.5%
TEXAS Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (15 Yards) to the Texas 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
69.1%
Kendre Miller run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 38Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 13
OPP 38
-7
69.4%
Max Duggan sacked by Barryn Sorrell and Moro Ojomo for a loss of 7 yards to the Texas 45Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 20
OPP 45
+10
69.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Emari Demercado for 10 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q1 6:53
4TH & 10
OPP 35
-5
69.5%
TCU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Texas 40Similar
Q1 6:18
4TH & 15
OPP 40
0
69.6%
Jordy Sandy punt for 39 yds, downed at the Texas 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2569% → 68%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
69.3%
Bijan Robinson run for 2 yds to the Texas 3Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+1
69.1%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the Texas 4Similar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 7
OWN 4
0
68.6%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Ja'Tavion SandersSimilar
Q1 4:35
4TH & 7
OWN 4
+2
68.3%
Daniel Trejo punt for 42 yds , Derius Davis returns for 2 yds to the Texas 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7MISSED FG
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:5332% → 32%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
67.9%
Kendre Miller run for 4 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+6
67.6%
Kendre Miller run for 6 yds to the Texas 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-6
67.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for a loss of 6 yards to the Texas 40Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 16
OPP 40
0
68.0%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Taye BarberSimilar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 16
OPP 40
+29
68.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 29 yds to the Texas 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
66.5%
Kendre Miller run for 4 yds to the Texas 7Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 6
OPP 7
-4
66.3%
Max Duggan run for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 11Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 10
OPP 11
-5
66.2%
Max Duggan sacked by DeMarvion Overshown and Ovie Oghoufo for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 16Similar
Q1 0:22
4TH & 15
OPP 16
+34
67.8%
Griffin Kell 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 1:0068% → 67%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
68.3%
Roschon Johnson run for 9 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+1
68.9%
Roschon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Texas 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
68.3%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Xavier WorthySimilar
Q2 14:36
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-5
68.1%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Cole Hutson) to the Texas 25Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 15
OWN 25
0
67.9%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Xavier WorthySimilar
Q2 14:25
3RD & 15
OWN 25
0
67.3%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Brenen ThompsonSimilar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 15
OWN 25
+8
66.9%
Daniel Trejo punt for 34 yds , Derius Davis returns for 8 yds to the Texas 33 TEXAS Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Texas 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4035% → 33%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
65.3%
Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 8
OPP 34
-2
64.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 36Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
65.6%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q2 12:50
4TH & 10
OPP 36
0
66.7%
Jordy Sandy punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Xavier Worthy at the Texas 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10INT
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:3268% → 68%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
67.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 8 yds to the Texas 18Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 2
OWN 18
-20
67.7%
Quinn Ewers pass intercepted Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson return for 20 yds to the Texas 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:5436% → 33%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
64.0%
Max Duggan sacked by Diamonte Tucker-Dorsey for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 39Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 15
OPP 39
-3
65.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 42Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 18
OPP 42
0
66.0%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Derius DavisSimilar
Q2 10:36
4TH & 18
OPP 42
0
66.8%
Jordy Sandy punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Xavier Worthy at the Texas 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:2067% → 65%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
66.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 3 yds to the Texas 8Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+9
66.6%
Bijan Robinson run for 9 yds to the Texas 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
67.3%
Bijan Robinson run for no gain to the Texas 17Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-9
66.9%
Quinn Ewers run for no gain to the Texas 17 TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-9 Yards) to the Texas 8Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 19
OWN 8
0
66.5%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Ja'Tavion SandersSimilar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 19
OWN 8
+12
65.6%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 12 yds to the Texas 20Similar
Q2 8:05
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
65.2%
Daniel Trejo punt for 43 yds , Derius Davis returns for no gain to the TCU 20 TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the TCU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13FG
16 plays · 57 yds · 6:3036% → 45%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
63.9%
Kendre Miller run for 4 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+2
63.4%
Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+6
63.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Geor'Quarius Spivey for 6 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
62.2%
Kendre Miller run for 5 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+9
61.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Trent Battle for 9 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
60.6%
Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+10
60.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jared Wiley for 10 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-4
59.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Emari Demercado for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 39Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 14
OPP 39
+3
61.1%
Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the Texas 36Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+5
60.8%
TEXAS Penalty, Delay of Game (Keondre Coburn) to the Texas 31Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+8
59.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 8 yds to the Texas 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
57.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 2 yds to the Texas 21Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
56.7%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+5
58.4%
Kendre Miller run for 5 yds to the Texas 16Similar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+34
54.9%
Griffin Kell 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:1258% → 56%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
58.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 15 yds to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
60.8%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Jordan WhittingtonSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
59.2%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Xavier WorthySimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+9
57.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 9 yds to the Texas 49Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
55.6%
Daniel Trejo punt for 45 yds, downed at the TCU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:0559% → 55%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
58.6%
Bijan Robinson run for no gain to the Texas 21Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+10
58.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 10 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
58.7%
Bijan Robinson run for no gain to the Texas 31Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-3
58.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 28Similar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 13
OWN 28
0
55.6%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Xavier WorthySimilar
Q3 12:25
4TH & 13
OWN 28
0
54.9%
Daniel Trejo punt for 41 yds, downed at the TCU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 3:5144% → 44%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
56.1%
Kendre Miller run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 30Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+1
56.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Max Duggan for 1 yd to the TCU 31Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+10
57.2%
Max Duggan pass complete to Kendre Miller for 10 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
53.5%
Kendre Miller run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 40Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 11
OWN 40
-10
53.0%
Max Duggan sacked by Ryan Watts for a loss of 10 yards to the TCU 30Similar
Q3 8:57
3RD & 21
OWN 30
+8
55.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 8 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q3 8:24
4TH & 13
OWN 38
0
55.6%
Jordy Sandy punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Xavier Worthy at the Texas 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:0255% → 53%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
55.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 13 yds to the Texas 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
55.8%
TCU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (14 Yards) to the Texas 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
58.9%
Bijan Robinson run for no gain to the Texas 46Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
56.8%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Jahleel BillingsleySimilar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
55.1%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Roschon JohnsonSimilar
Q3 6:58
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
53.3%
Daniel Trejo punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 93 yds · 1:4247% → 67%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
53.3%
Kendre Miller run for 4 yds to the TCU 11Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+9
52.9%
Max Duggan run for 9 yds to the TCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
52.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 5 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+75
33.1%
Kendre Miller run for 75 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19FG
13 plays · 71 yds · 3:5233% → 42%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
33.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
50
0
36.3%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Xavier WorthySimilar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 10
50
-1
35.2%
Bijan Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 49Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+4
32.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 4 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q3 3:20
4TH & 7
OPP 47
+9
31.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 9 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
34.6%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 11 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
36.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 1 yd to the TCU 26Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+24
35.6%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 24 yds to the TCU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
34.7%
Roschon Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 4Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
34.7%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Jordan WhittingtonSimilar
Q3 1:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
32.5%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Ja'Tavion SandersSimilar
Q3 0:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
41.7%
Bert Auburn 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:0965% → 89%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
35.0%
Kendre Miller run for 6 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+1
33.0%
Max Duggan run for 1 yd to the TCU 27Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
33.1%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:43
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+15
34.6%
TEXAS Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (15 Yards) to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
28.5%
Emari Demercado run for 5 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+10
27.6%
Max Duggan run for 10 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
26.2%
Emari Demercado run for 12 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
25.2%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
25.2%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Jordan HudsonSimilar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+31
11.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 31 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21DOWNS
11 plays · 38 yds · 2:3519% → 14%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
18.9%
Quinn Ewers run for 3 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+6
18.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 6 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+7
19.0%
Bijan Robinson run for 7 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
19.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 7 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+5
19.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 5 yds to the TCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
16.4%
TCU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson) to the TCU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
16.3%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Jordan WhittingtonSimilar
Q4 10:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
16.2%
Quinn Ewers run for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 10Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
14.5%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Jordan WhittingtonSimilar
Q4 9:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
0
13.7%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Ja'Tavion SandersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 3:1192% → 94%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
8.3%
Kendre Miller run for 9 yds to the TCU 19Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+2
8.1%
Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the TCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
7.7%
Emari Demercado run for 14 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
7.3%
Emari Demercado run for 5 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
6.4%
Emari Demercado run for no gain to the TCU 40Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
5.8%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q4 6:09
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
6.0%
Jordy Sandy punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Xavier Worthy at the Texas 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:147% → 6%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
6.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 20 yds to the Texas 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
7.5%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Tarique MiltonSimilar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-7
6.9%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Tymon Mitchell for a loss of 7 yards to the Texas 38Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 17
OWN 38
0
6.3%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Jordan WhittingtonSimilar
Q4 4:46
4TH & 17
OWN 38
0
5.7%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Ja'Tavion SandersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24FUMBLE TD
5 plays · -14 yds · 0:1695% → 88%
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
4.6%
Kendre Miller run for 1 yd to the Texas 37Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+4
4.3%
Emari Demercado run for 4 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+48
11.7%
Max Duggan run for a loss of 19 yards Max Duggan fumbled, recovered by Texas Jahdae Barron , return for 48 yds, (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 25END OF GAME
10 plays · 34 yds · 4:0586% → 96%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
13.6%
Kendre Miller run for 6 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
12.3%
Kendre Miller run for no gain to the TCU 31Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
12.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 6 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
10.1%
Emari Demercado run for 11 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
6.7%
Emari Demercado run for 1 yd to the TCU 49Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+7
5.0%
Emari Demercado run for 7 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+4
4.4%
Emari Demercado run for 4 yds to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
4.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:08
Kendre Miller run for 75 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)
-18.9
TD · Q4 12:36
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 31 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)
-14
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:25
Will Stone kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+11.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com