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KSU

Kansas State 31 at Baylor 3

BAY
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:50 · Issac Power punt for 56 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 111Home team on offense−16.9Score differential−9.0Garbage-time factor−6.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.9Pregame prior+1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 5:57: Ty Zentner 31 yd FG GOOD — KSU win probability +6.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:09: Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 20 yds for a TD, (Ty Zentner KICK) — KSU win probability +13.8 pts (now 77%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 2:09: Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Qualan Jones — BAY win probability +11.7 pts (now 36%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 2:09: Timeout BAYLOR, clock 02:09 — KSU win probability +6.7 pts (now 70%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:53: Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 19 yds for a TD, (Ty Zentner KICK) — KSU win probability +13.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 7KSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00KSU 4th & 1 at BAY 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    41.6%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    41.6%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:22KSU 4th & 6 at BAY 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    41.9%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    41.7%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:20BAY 4th & 11 at BAY 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:57KSU 4th & 10 at BAY 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    48.4%−5.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:54BAY 4th & 6 at BAY 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00BAY 4th & 2 at KSU 19, down 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.3%−0.9
    77% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−6.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:58BAY 4th & 10 at KSU 36, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    29.5%
    42% to make
    Punt
    29.1%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:56KSU 4th & 7 at KSU 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:50BAY 4th & 9 at BAY 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:27BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 19, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.4%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:15BAY 4th & 6 at KSU 20, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:45KSU 4th & 8 at BAY 38, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 14:20KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:09KSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:53KSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1DOWNS
16 plays · 36 yds · 6:3845% → 45%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
54.9%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 4 yds to the KanSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
54.9%
Deuce Vaughn run for 5 yds to the KanSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
54.9%
Deuce Vaughn run for 8 yds to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
54.9%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Kade Warner for 2 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+8
54.9%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 8 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
54.9%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 1 yd to the Bayl 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+4
54.9%
DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+4
54.9%
Adrian Martinez run for 4 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+3
54.9%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 3 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
54.9%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+2
54.9%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 6
OPP 32
0
54.6%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Phillip BrooksSimilar
Q1 8:22
4TH & 6
OPP 32
-7
55.0%
Adrian Martinez sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2INT
9 plays · 44 yds · 3:5856% → 57%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
55.7%
Craig Williams run for 7 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+4
56.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
50
+4
56.1%
Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the KanSt 46Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+14
56.1%
Richard Reese run for 14 yds to the KanSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
56.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 8 yds to the KanSt 24Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+6
56.3%
Qualan Jones run for 6 yds to the KanSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
56.3%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the KanSt 17Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
56.3%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ben SimsSimilar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 9
OPP 17
-3
56.7%
Blake Shapen pass intercepted KANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Josh Hayes) to the KanSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3TD
13 plays · 97 yds · 5:0444% → 53%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+6
55.6%
Deuce Vaughn run for 6 yds to the KanSt 9Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 4
OWN 9
+5
55.7%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Kade Warner for 5 yds to the KanSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
55.4%
Deuce Vaughn run for 7 yds to the KanSt 21Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+2
55.2%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Kade Warner for 2 yds to the KanSt 23Similar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+1
55.5%
Adrian Martinez run for 1 yd to the KanSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
54.8%
DJ Giddens run for 5 yds to the KanSt 29Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+11
54.4%
Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 11 yds to the KanSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
53.9%
Deuce Vaughn run for 4 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+18
53.6%
Deuce Vaughn run for 18 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+23
53.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 23 yds to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
52.3%
Deuce Vaughn run for no gain to the Bayl 15Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
46.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 15 yds for a TD, (Ty Zentner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 3:0048% → 47%
Q2 14:20
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+11
48.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 11 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
49.0%
Craig Williams run for 1 yd to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
48.2%
Craig Williams run for 8 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
49.4%
Qualan Jones run for 1 yd to the Bayl 39Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 11
OWN 39
0
48.7%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Qualan JonesSimilar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
48.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Qualan Jones for no gain to the Bayl 39Similar
Q2 11:20
4TH & 11
OWN 39
+13
46.7%
Issac Power punt for 34 yds , Phillip Brooks returns for 13 yds to the KanSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5FG
13 plays · 47 yds · 5:2354% → 61%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
45.9%
Deuce Vaughn run for 5 yds to the KanSt 45Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
46.0%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Ben SinnottSimilar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+12
46.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 12 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
45.4%
Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+5
45.5%
Will Howard pass complete to Malik Knowles for 5 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+6
45.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 6 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
45.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 6 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 4
OPP 24
-5
45.0%
PENALTY KSU False Start 5 yards from BU24 to BU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+16
45.3%
Phillip Brooks run for 16 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
45.0%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Ben SinnottSimilar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+1
45.0%
Deuce Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Bayl 14Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 11
OPP 14
+1
45.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 1 yd to the Bayl 13Similar
Q2 5:57
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+31
39.2%
Ty Zentner 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0339% → 38%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
39.4%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the Bayl 26Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
39.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Craig Williams for 3 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
39.1%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q2 4:54
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
37.9%
Issac Power punt for 37 yds , Phillip Brooks returns for no gain to the KanSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 2:4562% → 77%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
38.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 19 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
37.6%
Deuce Vaughn run for 10 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
37.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 11 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
37.0%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Phillip BrooksSimilar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+11
37.2%
Deuce Vaughn run for 11 yds to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
36.9%
DJ Giddens run for no gain to the Bayl 15Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-5
36.9%
PENALTY KSU False Start (Panzer,Hadley) 5 yards from BU15 to BU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+20
23.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 20 yds for a TD, (Ty Zentner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8FG
17 plays · 56 yds · 2:0936% → 29%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.3%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Qualan JonesSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+5
29.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 5 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+11
28.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 11 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
27.3%
Blake Shapen run for 5 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
30.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Shapen,Blake pass incomplete short right to Cameron,Josh PENALTY KSU Holding (Brents,Julius) 10 yards from BU36 to BU46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
30.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 16 yds to the KanSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
31.2%
Qualan Jones run for 6 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 4
OPP 32
0
29.3%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+5
29.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 5 yds to the KanSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
32.1%
Blake Shapen run for no gain to the KanSt 27Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+8
29.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 8 yds to the KanSt 19Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 2
OPP 19
0
26.3%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+37
29.1%
John Mayers 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9DOWNS
8 plays · 39 yds · 3:0230% → 29%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
30.1%
Richard Reese run for 12 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
31.0%
Blake Shapen run for 2 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+25
31.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 25 yds to the KanSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 46
0
31.8%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 46
+7
31.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Craig Williams for 7 yds to the KanSt 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 39
+3
31.4%
Blake Shapen run for 3 yds to the KanSt 36Similar
Q3 11:58
4TH & 10
OPP 36
0
28.6%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0274% → 75%
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
25.7%
Deuce Vaughn run for 3 yds to the KanSt 39Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
24.9%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Ben SinnottSimilar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
25.4%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Deuce VaughnSimilar
Q3 10:56
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
25.0%
Ty Zentner punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Gavin Holmes at the Bayl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 4:0626% → 23%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
26.4%
Richard Reese run for 6 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+1
26.5%
Craig Williams run for 1 yd to the Bayl 20Similar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+10
26.2%
Richard Reese run for 10 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
26.8%
Richard Reese run for 5 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+8
27.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 8 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
28.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Craig Williams for no gain to the Bayl 43Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
28.2%
Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the Bayl 44Similar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
27.5%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q3 6:50
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
22.8%
Issac Power punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:5781% → 96%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
19.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 1 yd to the KanSt 21Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+8
19.3%
Will Howard run for 8 yds to the KanSt 29Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
19.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 5 yds to the KanSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
19.2%
Deuce Vaughn run for 5 yds to the KanSt 39Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+8
18.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Malik Knowles for 8 yds to the KanSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
17.9%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Kade WarnerSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
17.6%
Will Howard run for 2 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+17
17.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Kade Warner for 17 yds to the Bayl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
17.2%
Deuce Vaughn run for no gain to the Bayl 19Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
17.6%
DJ Giddens run for no gain to the Bayl 19Similar
Q3 1:53
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+19
3.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 19 yds for a TD, (Ty Zentner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:186% → 5%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
6.0%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the Bayl 13Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 9
OWN 13
0
6.0%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 9
OWN 13
+6
6.0%
Blake Shapen run for 6 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
Q3 0:27
4TH & 3
OWN 19
+1
5.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 1 yd to the Bayl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 14TD
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:2797% → 99%
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
3.4%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Phillip BrooksSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
0.8%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the Bayl 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15DOWNS
8 plays · 55 yds · 1:511% → 0%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
0.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 24 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
0.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 7 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+20
0.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 20 yds to the KanSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
0.6%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
0.6%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+4
0.6%
Blake Shapen run for 4 yds to the KanSt 20Similar
Q4 12:15
4TH & 6
OPP 20
0
0.4%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 42 yds · 5:3099% → 100%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
0.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Malik Knowles for 5 yds to the KanSt 25Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+7
0.7%
Deuce Vaughn run for 7 yds to the KanSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
0.7%
Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the KanSt 34Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+2
0.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 2 yds to the KanSt 36Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+7
0.7%
DJ Giddens run for 7 yds to the KanSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
0.6%
DJ Giddens run for 17 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
0.6%
Deuce Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Bayl 41Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 11
OPP 41
0
0.6%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Deuce VaughnSimilar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+3
0.6%
Deuce Vaughn run for 3 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q4 12:15
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
0.7%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (Josh Hayes) declinedSimilar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
0.3%
Ty Zentner punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Gavin Holmes at the Bayl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17INT
10 plays · 40 yds · 1:480% → 0%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
0.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 6 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+12
0.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 12 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
0.2%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+11
0.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 11 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
0.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 11 yds to the KanSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
0.1%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
0.1%
Blake Shapen pass interceptedSimilar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
0.1%
Blake Shapen pass interceptedSimilar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
0.1%
Blake Shapen pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18END OF GAME
8 plays · 30 yds · 4:57100% → 100%
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
0.2%
PENALTY KSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting BU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
0.2%
Deuce Vaughn run for 3 yds to the KanSt 24Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+3
0.2%
Deuce Vaughn run for 3 yds to the KanSt 21Similar
Q4 4:57
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+10
0.2%
Will Howard pass complete to RJ Garcia II for 10 yds to the KanSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
0.2%
Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the KanSt 33Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+8
0.2%
DJ Giddens run for 8 yds to the KanSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
0.2%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+8
0.1%
DJ Giddens run for 8 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:09
Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 20 yds for a TD, (Ty Zentner KICK)
-13.8
TD · Q3 1:53
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 19 yds for a TD, (Ty Zentner KICK)
-13.6
KEY PLAY · Q2 2:09
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Qualan Jones
+11.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com