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TTU

Texas Tech 24 at TCU 34

TCU
2022 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2022 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreTTU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+11.2TCU 88.3%Max Duggan pass complete to DeriusDavis for 23 yds for a TD, (GriffinKell KICK)AWAY 17 - HOME 27 · Q4 10:53
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:53 · Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 23 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 148Pregame prior+4.3Home team on offense+19.1Garbage-time factor+8.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.6Score differential+2.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:38: Tyler Shough pass complete to J.J. Sparkman for 33 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK) — TTU win probability +17.8 pts (now 50%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:25: Kendre Miller run for 2 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +22.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:53: Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 23 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +11.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:46: Max Duggan pass complete to Emari Demercado for 16 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +5.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:46: Tyler Shough run for 3 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK) — TTU win probability +3.9 pts (now 5%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9TTU made the numbers' call on 12 of 13
  1. Q1 13:20TTU 4th & 7 at TTU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:29TTU 4th & 7 at TTU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:54TCU 4th & 1 at TTU 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    73.4%−0.5
    79% to make
    Punt
    72.0%−1.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:28TCU 4th & 1 at TCU 23, tied
    Close callPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:00TTU 4th & 11 at TCU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    29.0%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:58TCU 4th & 4 at TTU 22, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.0%−0.2
    72% to make
    Punt
    63.6%−3.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:18TTU 4th & 1 at TTU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.7%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:59TTU 4th & 7 at TTU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:16TCU 4th & 18 at TCU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−2.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:04TTU 4th & 9 at TCU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    34.5%−0.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:09TCU 4th & 10 at TTU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    62.4%−4.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:25TCU 4th & 9 at TCU 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−1.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:41TTU 4th & 7 at TTU 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:14TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−1.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:55TTU 4th & 1 at TTU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.1%−1.6
    average punt
  16. Q3 8:52TTU 4th & 4 at TCU 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    31.3%−2.4
    30% to make
    Punt
    32.3%−1.4
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:37TCU 4th & 4 at TTU 12, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.3%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    51.9%−0.4
    86% to make
    Punt
    40.1%−12.2
    average punt
  18. Q3 2:37TTU 4th & 4 at TTU 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:21TTU 4th & 2 at TTU 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.4%−1.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:28TTU 4th & 4 at TTU 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:02TTU 4th & 18 at TTU 17, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%−0.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:34TCU 4th & 1 at TTU 4, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.0%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    97.4%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    96.0%−2.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3TTU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:13TTU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:38TTU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:25TCU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.0%−0.5
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:53TCU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:46TCU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:46TTU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.4%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TTUDrive 1PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3527% → 27%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.0%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to SaRodorick ThompsonSimilar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
72.9%
Tahj Brooks run for 6 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-3
72.9%
Tahj Brooks run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 28Similar
Q1 13:20
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+82
73.3%
Austin McNamara punt for 54 yds , Derius Davis returns for 82 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:4127% → 27%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
73.2%
Behren Morton sacked by Dylan Horton and Terrell Cooper for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 17Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+4
73.3%
Behren Morton pass complete to Xavier White for 4 yds to the TexTc 21Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+21
73.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 21 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
73.2%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Jerand BradleySimilar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-4
73.2%
SaRodorick Thompson run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexTc 38Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 14
OWN 38
+7
73.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 7 yds to the TexTc 45Similar
Q1 10:29
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
73.4%
Austin McNamara punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3DOWNS
10 plays · 60 yds · 4:3174% → 74%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
73.5%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Derius DavisSimilar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
73.5%
Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+38
73.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 38 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
74.1%
Kendre Miller run for no gain to the TexTc 39Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
73.8%
Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the TexTc 37Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+10
74.0%
Emari Demercado run for 10 yds to the TexTc 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
74.3%
Emari Demercado run for 1 yd to the TexTc 26Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+1
74.4%
Emari Demercado run for 1 yd to the TexTc 25Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+7
74.3%
Max Duggan run for 7 yds to the TexTc 18Similar
Q1 5:54
4TH & 1
OPP 18
-2
74.1%
Kendre Miller run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:3026% → 30%
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
73.9%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 9 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+24
73.3%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 24 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
69.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 47 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3071% → 70%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
70.7%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Blair ConwrightSimilar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+4
70.6%
Kendre Miller run for 4 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+5
70.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Kendre Miller for 5 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q1 3:28
4TH & 1
OWN 23
+2
69.7%
Jordy Sandy punt for 33 yds , Myles Price returns for 2 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 3:2031% → 33%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
69.3%
Behren Morton run for 2 yds to the TexTc 48Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+5
69.2%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 5 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+3
68.7%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 3 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
68.4%
Morton, Behren pass incomplete to Bradley, Jerand, PENALTY TCU pass interference (Hodges-Tomlinson, Tre'Vius) 15 yards to the TCU29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASTECH.Similar
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
67.8%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 14 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
67.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to J.J. Sparkman for 10 yds to the TCU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
67.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to J.J. Sparkman for 3 yds to the TCU 2Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 0
OPP 2
-5
66.9%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (Dennis Wilburn) to the TCU 7Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-4
67.0%
Behren Morton sacked by Dee Winters for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 11Similar
Q1 0:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
67.7%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Henry TeeterSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
67.2%
Trey Wolff 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:5768% → 70%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
67.5%
Max Duggan run for 7 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+4
68.5%
Kendre Miller run for 4 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+30
68.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 30 yds to the TexTc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
69.2%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
69.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 5 yds to the TexTc 23Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+1
68.2%
Max Duggan run for 1 yd to the TexTc 22Similar
Q2 11:58
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+40
69.8%
Griffin Kell 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 3:5032% → 34%
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
68.1%
Behren Morton pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 7 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
66.9%
Behren Morton pass complete to Myles Price for 1 yd to the TexTc 33Similar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
67.3%
Donovan Smith run for 1 yd to the TexTc 34Similar
Q2 10:18
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
67.8%
Donovan Smith run for 2 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
66.4%
Behren Morton run for 2 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-3
65.8%
Behren Morton sacked by Dee Winters for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 35Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+4
67.6%
Behren Morton run for 4 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
Q2 7:59
4TH & 7
OWN 39
-2
66.3%
Austin McNamara punt for 51 yds , Derius Davis returns for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:3668% → 66%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+27
67.6%
Kendre Miller run for 27 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-8
68.3%
Max Duggan sacked by Jesiah Pierre and Tyree Wilson for a loss of 8 yards to the TCU 27Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 18
OWN 27
0
67.6%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 18
OWN 27
0
66.9%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Emani BaileySimilar
Q2 6:16
4TH & 18
OWN 27
+15
66.3%
Jordy Sandy punt for 43 yds , Myles Price returns for 15 yds to the TexTc 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:0837% → 35%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
63.4%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to Xavier WhiteSimilar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+10
63.9%
Tahj Brooks run for 10 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
62.7%
Tahj Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 46Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+1
62.9%
Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd to the TCU 45Similar
Q2 4:44
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+1
63.6%
Tyler Shough run for 1 yd to the TCU 44Similar
Q2 4:04
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
64.6%
Austin McNamara punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11FG
13 plays · 71 yds · 3:4568% → 71%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
67.5%
Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+13
67.2%
Max Duggan pass complete to Blair Conwright for 13 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
67.7%
Emari Demercado run for 15 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
69.2%
Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+21
69.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 21 yds to the TexTc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-4
70.4%
Max Duggan sacked by Jesiah Pierre for a loss of 4 yards to the TexTc 32Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 14
OPP 32
+20
70.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Gunnar Henderson for 20 yds to the TexTc 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
71.5%
Emari Demercado run for 6 yds to the TexTc 6Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 4
OPP 6
-6
71.4%
Max Duggan run for a loss of 6 yards to the TexTc 12Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
68.9%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Blair ConwrightSimilar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+30
71.0%
Griffin Kell 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
69.8%
SaRodorick Thompson run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexTc 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:1871% → 69%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
70.5%
Duggan, Max rush for 4 yards to the TCU19, PENALTY TCU holding (Davis, Derius) 7 yards to the TCU8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:13
1ST & 17
OWN 8
0
70.3%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 17
OWN 8
0
70.1%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Jordan HudsonSimilar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 17
OWN 8
+8
69.0%
Kendre Miller run for 8 yds to the TCU 16Similar
Q3 13:25
4TH & 9
OWN 16
0
68.5%
Jordy Sandy punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Myles Price at the TexTc 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3332% → 30%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
68.3%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Xavier White for 3 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
67.2%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to Myles PriceSimilar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
68.4%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to Myles PriceSimilar
Q3 12:41
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+13
70.2%
Austin McNamara punt for 50 yds , Derius Davis returns for 13 yds to the TCU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1870% → 68%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
70.4%
Kendre Miller run for 5 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 5
OWN 28
-2
70.2%
Kendre Miller run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 26Similar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 7
OWN 26
0
68.8%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Blair ConwrightSimilar
Q3 11:14
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
68.0%
Jordy Sandy punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Myles Price at the TexTc 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 2:2631% → 50%
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
69.1%
Tyler Shough run for 2 yds to the TexTc 25Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+7
69.1%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Brady Boyd for 7 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 1
OWN 32
0
68.3%
SaRodorick Thompson run for no gain to the TexTc 32Similar
Q3 9:55
4TH & 1
OWN 32
+5
69.9%
Donovan Smith run for 5 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
67.9%
Shough, Tyler pass incomplete to Bradley, Jerand, PENALTY TCU personal foul (Winters, Dee) 15 yards to the TCU48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASTECH. Winters ejected for Targeting. Similar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
65.5%
Nehemiah Martinez I run for 6 yds to the TCU 42 Nehemiah Martinez I fumbled, recovered by TexTc Nehemiah Martinez ISimilar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
65.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to SaRodorick Thompson for no gain to the TCU 42Similar
Q3 8:59
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
65.9%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to J.J. SparkmanSimilar
Q3 8:52
4TH & 4
OPP 42
+9
67.4%
Tyler Shough pass complete to SaRodorick Thompson for 9 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
49.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to J.J. Sparkman for 33 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 59 yds · 3:5355% → 53%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
55.1%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+9
54.8%
Max Duggan run for 9 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+2
55.1%
Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+50
53.1%
Kendre Miller run for 50 yds to the TexTc 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
59.1%
Kendre Miller run for 4 yds to the TexTc 14Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 6
OPP 14
-3
59.0%
Max Duggan sacked by Dadrion Taylor-Demerson for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 17Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+5
56.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 5 yds to the TexTc 12Similar
Q3 4:37
4TH & 4
OPP 12
-8
52.6%
Max Duggan sacked by Jaylon Hutchings for a loss of 8 yards to the TexTc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:5354% → 56%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
46.1%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the TexTc 23Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+7
45.8%
Tyler Shough run for 7 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
44.3%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
43.2%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to Myles PriceSimilar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+4
45.4%
Tyler Shough run for 4 yds to the TexTc 36Similar
Q3 2:37
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
44.0%
Austin McNamara punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 3:5947% → 77%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
47.3%
Max Duggan run for 7 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+2
48.0%
Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q3 1:33
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+6
46.3%
Max Duggan run for 6 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
47.4%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Gunnar HendersonSimilar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+15
46.9%
Duggan, Max pass sacked for loss of 4 yards to the TCU30 (Wilson, Tyree), PENALTY TEXASTECH face mask (Wilson, Tyree) 15 yards to the TCU49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU.Similar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
51.0%
Kendre Miller run for 11 yds to the TexTc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
51.5%
Kendre Miller run for 5 yds to the TexTc 35Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+11
53.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 11 yds to the TexTc 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+16
53.2%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 8 yds to the TexTc 16 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Dadrion Taylor-Demerson) to the TexTc 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
53.0%
Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the TexTc 6Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 0
OPP 6
+4
54.8%
Duggan, Max pass incomplete to Williams, Savion, PENALTY TEXASTECH pass interference (Williams, Rayshad) 4 yards to the TEXASTECH2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU.Similar
Q4 13:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
76.9%
Kendre Miller run for 2 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:4230% → 30%
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
69.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 12 yds to the TexTc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
68.6%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to J.J. SparkmanSimilar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+8
69.9%
Tahj Brooks run for 8 yds to the TexTc 36Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 2
OWN 36
0
67.4%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to Loic FouonjiSimilar
Q4 12:21
4TH & 2
OWN 36
-2
69.7%
Donovan Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21TD
3 plays · 34 yds · 1:1977% → 88%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
77.2%
Emari Demercado run for 10 yds to the TexTc 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
77.1%
Emari Demercado run for 1 yd to the TexTc 23Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+23
88.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 23 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:0712% → 12%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
87.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Myles Price for 13 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
86.1%
Tyler Shough pass complete to SaRodorick Thompson for 1 yd to the TexTc 40Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
86.9%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+5
87.5%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Brady Boyd for 5 yds to the TexTc 45Similar
Q4 9:28
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
88.2%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to Myles PriceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 3:2989% → 99%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
88.9%
Kendre Miller run for 6 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+5
91.0%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (Vidal Scott) to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
91.3%
Kendre Miller run for 11 yds to the TexTc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
91.8%
Kendre Miller run for 13 yds to the TexTc 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
92.5%
Emari Demercado run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 13Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
-3
92.8%
Emari Demercado run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 16Similar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 0
OPP 16
+16
99.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Emari Demercado for 16 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 24INT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:383% → 2%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.2%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to Xavier WhiteSimilar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-8
97.7%
Tyler Shough sacked by Shadrach Banks for a loss of 8 yards to the TexTc 17Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
97.8%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:02
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
97.8%
Tyler Shough pass intercepted Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson return for no gain to the TexTc 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 25DOWNS
8 plays · 29 yds · 1:2199% → 99%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+20
99.1%
Emani Bailey run for 20 yds to the TexTc 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
99.2%
Emani Bailey run for 7 yds to the TexTc 6Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 3
OPP 6
-2
99.3%
Max Duggan run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 8Similar
Q4 3:46
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+4
99.4%
Emani Bailey run for 4 yds to the TexTc 4Similar
Q4 3:34
4TH & 1
OPP 4
0
99.4%
Emani Bailey run for no gain to the TexTc 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 26TD
7 plays · 96 yds · 1:381% → 5%
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+38
99.3%
Cam'Ron Valdez run for 38 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
99.3%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 7 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 3
OWN 49
0
99.1%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to Jordan BrownSimilar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+18
99.2%
Cam'Ron Valdez run for 3 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Johnny Hodges) to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+30
99.1%
Cam'Ron Valdez run for 30 yds to the TCU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
98.9%
Tyler Shough run for no gain to the TCU 3Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.0%
Tyler Shough run for 3 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2497% → 97%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 44Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 11
OPP 44
-1
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 45Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 45
-2
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:25
Kendre Miller run for 2 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)
+22.1
TD · Q3 8:38
Tyler Shough pass complete to J.J. Sparkman for 33 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)
-17.8
TD · Q4 10:53
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 23 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)
+11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com