2022 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2022 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadWVU aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreWVU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:09 · Tyler Perkins punt for 32 yds, downed at the WVirg 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorDefense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 7:51: Hunter Dekkers pass complete to DeShawn Hanika for 16 yds for a TD WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined, (Jace Gilbert KICK) — ISU win probability +8.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:34: JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 25 yds for a TD, (Casey Legg KICK) — WVU win probability +10.8 pts (now 32%) (top driver: Defense has -4 timeouts left).
- TD · Q4 13:24: Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 24 yds for a TD, (Drake Nettles KICK) — ISU win probability +18.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:31: Cartevious Norton run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jace Gilbert KICK) — ISU win probability +7.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:04: Garrett Greene pass complete to Sam James for 8 yds for a TD, (Casey Legg KICK) — WVU win probability +1.2 pts (now 2%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8WVU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 12:11WVU 4th & 12 at WVU 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snapGo for it32.0%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.1%average punt
- Q1 10:46ISU 4th & 6 at ISU 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snapGo for it67.3%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.4%average punt
- Q1 9:13WVU 4th & 4 at WVU 44, tiedClose callPunted · 32.7% before the snapGo for it32.7%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 6:50ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 43, tiedClose callPunted · 67.1% before the snapGo for it67.2%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.9%−0.3average punt
- Q1 4:53WVU 4th & 4 at WVU 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snapGo for it33.0%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.0%average punt
- Q1 1:47ISU 4th & 8 at WVU 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.8% before the snapGo for it66.5%−0.230% to convertField goalTheir call66.7%85% to makePunt64.9%−1.8average punt
- Q2 14:53WVU 4th & 10 at ISU 49, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snapGo for it32.2%−0.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.5%average punt
- Q2 7:10WVU 4th & 4 at WVU 31, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snapGo for it24.8%−0.548% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.3%average punt
- Q2 5:48ISU 4th & 19 at ISU 30, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snapGo for it71.5%−2.411% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.9%average punt
- Q2 3:23ISU 4th & 6 at ISU 34, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snapGo for it75.0%−0.540% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.6%average punt
- Q3 11:25ISU 4th & 1 at WVU 23, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call68.7%71% to convertField goal66.4%−2.270% to makePunt59.9%−8.7average punt
- Q3 9:08ISU 4th & 13 at WVU 24, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.3% before the snapGo for it65.3%−2.120% to convertField goalTheir call67.4%68% to makePunt60.1%−7.3average punt
- Q3 8:09WVU 4th & 5 at WVU 29, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snapGo for it31.7%−0.541% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.2%average punt
- Q3 4:09ISU 4th & 18 at ISU 44, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snapGo for it63.1%−4.013% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.2%average punt
- Q3 1:22WVU 4th & 1 at WVU 33, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 31.3% before the snapGo for it33.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.9%−2.3average punt
- Q4 12:42WVU 4th & 10 at WVU 23, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snapGo for it11.8%−1.528% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.3%average punt
- Q4 6:40WVU 4th & 21 at WVU 4, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.97% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.7%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4WVU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 7:51ISU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.4%97% to makeGo for two75.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:34WVU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.7%97% to makeGo for two32.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:24ISU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.8%97% to makeGo for two86.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 8:31ISU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.1%97% to makeGo for two95.8%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 3:52ISU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%−0.197% to makeGo for two99.5%45% to convert
- Q4 1:04WVU Touchdown, down 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.4%97% to makeGo for two1.4%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWVUDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 2:4931% → 31%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+6
68.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 6 yds to the WVirg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 41
-10
68.8%
JOHNSON JR., Justin rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the WVU44 (FREYLER, Beau). PENALTY WVU Holding on MILUM, Wyatt enforced 10 yards from the WVU41 to the WVU31 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2568% → 68%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3332% → 32%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 39 yds · 2:2368% → 68%
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+18
68.1%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 18 yds to the IowSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
68.2%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 3 yds to the IowSt 37Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+6
67.6%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jirehl Brock for 6 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5732% → 33%
ISUDrive 6FG8 plays · 45 yds · 3:0668% → 69%
WVUDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 25 yds · 1:4832% → 32%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
67.9%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for 10 yds to the WVirg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
67.5%
DANIELS, JT pass to the right incomplete intended for PRATHER, Kaden thrown to the ISU17. PENALTY ISU Pass Interference on PURCHASE, Myles enforced 15 yards to the ISU49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-6
66.6%
JT Daniels run for a loss of 6 yards to the WVirg 45 JT Daniels fumbled, recovered by WVirg Justin Johnson Jr.Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
67.9%
Oliver Straw punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8TD15 plays · 86 yds · 6:5068% → 80%
Q2 14:41
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+8
68.3%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 8 yds to the IowSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+7
69.9%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 7 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
70.3%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 5 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+14
70.3%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 14 yds to the WVirg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+12
70.4%
Cartevious Norton run for 12 yds to the WVirg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+8
70.6%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jared Rus for 8 yds Jared Rus fumbled, recovered by IowSt Jared Rus for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 13
OPP 16
+16
80.3%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to DeShawn Hanika for 16 yds for a TD WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined, (Jace Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 0:4122% → 22%
ISUDrive 10PUNT4 plays · -9 yds · 1:2283% → 82%
Q2 7:10
2ND & 9
OWN 40
-10
82.8%
Hunter Dekkers sacked by Taijh Alston for a loss of 10 yards to the IowSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 11INT3 plays · 2 yds · 0:5521% → 20%
ISUDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3083% → 81%
Q2 4:53
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+6
82.6%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 6 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 13TD9 plays · 68 yds · 2:4920% → 32%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
80.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Cortez Braham for 8 yds to the WVirg 40Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+17
81.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Sam James for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
68.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 25 yds for a TD, (Casey Legg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · 1 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15MISSED FG15 plays · 51 yds · 5:5267% → 67%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
67.4%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Easton Dean for 14 yds to the IowSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
68.5%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Cartevious Norton for 10 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+7
68.6%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Cartevious Norton for 7 yds to the WVirg 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+13
69.6%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 13 yds to the WVirg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 1
OPP 23
0
70.3%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Cartevious Norton for no gain to the WVirg 23Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 6
OPP 17
-7
70.3%
Hunter Dekkers sacked by Jordan Jefferson for a loss of 7 yards to the WVirg 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5934% → 32%
Q3 8:09
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
68.3%
Oliver Straw punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 4:0069% → 66%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
68.8%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 14 yds to the IowSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
70.7%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 9 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+1
71.9%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Cartevious Norton for 1 yd to the WVirg 47Similar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 9
OPP 47
-9
70.6%
Hunter Dekkers sacked by Dante Stills for a loss of 9 yards to the IowSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 2:4734% → 34%
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-10
65.9%
JOHNSON JR., Justin rush to the left for no gain to the WVU24 (ONYEDIM, Tyler;CHAMBERS, Mason). PENALTY WVU Holding on RIMAC, Tomas enforced 10 yards from the WVU24 to the WVU14 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:09
1ST & 20
OWN 14
+4
66.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Treylan Davis for 4 yds to the WVirg 18Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 16
OWN 18
+13
66.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Sam James for 13 yds to the WVirg 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19TD10 plays · 94 yds · 2:5866% → 90%
Q4 14:43
4TH & 7
OWN 21
+15
63.1%
PERKINS, Tyler punt 53 yards to the WVU26, FOX, Preston return 0 yards to the WVU26 (PORTER, Darien), clock 14:43. PENALTY WVU Roughing the Kicker on SMITH, Reese enforced 15 yards from the ISU21 to the ISU36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+24
89.7%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 24 yds for a TD, (Drake Nettles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3616% → 14%
Q4 12:42
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
86.1%
Oliver Straw punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21TD9 plays · 64 yds · 4:1191% → 99%
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
90.6%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 4 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+10
90.3%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
91.2%
NORTON, Cartevious rush up the middle for a loss of 1 yard to the WVU18 (JEFFERSON, Jordan). PENALTY WVU Offsides on JEFFERSON, Jordan enforced 5 yards from the WVU17 to the WVU12 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 22PUNT6 plays · -11 yds · 1:423% → 1%
Q4 8:22
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-8
97.0%
JT Daniels sacked by O'Rien Vance for a loss of 8 yards to the WVirg 7Similar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 18
OWN 7
-3
97.2%
JT Daniels sacked by MJ Anderson and Will McDonald IV for a loss of 3 yards to the WVirg 4Similar
Q4 6:40
4TH & 21
OWN 4
0
97.5%
Oliver Straw punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the WVirg 34Similar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
98.9%
DEKKERS, Hunter pass to the right incomplete intended for STANLEY, Dimitri broken up by RUFFIN, Malachi at the WVU10. PENALTY WVU Pass Interference on RUFFIN, Malachi enforced 15 yards to the WVU19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 23TD5 plays · 34 yds · 2:4899% → 100%
Q4 6:40
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+9
98.9%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Darren Wilson Jr. for 9 yds to the WVirg 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
98.9%
QB Keeper DEKKERS, Hunter rush to the left for a loss of 4 yards to the WVU11 (KPOGBA, Lee). PENALTY WVU Face mask on KPOGBA, Lee enforced half the distance from the goal, 3 yards from the WVU7 to the WVU4 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 24TD10 plays · 75 yds · 2:481% → 2%
Q4 3:52
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
99.5%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Reese Smith for 8 yds to the WVirg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
99.5%
GREENE, Garrett pass to the left incomplete intended for FORD-WHEATON, Bryce thrown to the ISU20. PENALTY ISU Holding on MENDESZOON, Myles enforced 10 yards from the WVU40 to the WVU50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
99.5%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 7 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+20
99.4%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Reese Smith for 20 yds to the IowSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
98.2%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Sam James for 8 yds for a TD, (Casey Legg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 25Uncategorized1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:24
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 24 yds for a TD, (Drake Nettles KICK)
+18.2
TD · Q2 0:34
JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 25 yds for a TD, (Casey Legg KICK)
-10.8
TD · Q2 7:51
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to DeShawn Hanika for 16 yds for a TD WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined, (Jace Gilbert KICK)
+8.2