Baylor at Oklahoma (38-35)

BAY

Baylor 38 at Oklahoma 35

2022 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2022 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)

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Win probability · OU

modelOU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreBAY score

What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went

Q2 12:59 · John Mayers 49 yd FG GOOD

Driver values - Δ win prob, pts

Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts

This game in five plays

TD · Q4 4:05: Zach Schmit kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — OU win probability +12.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
TD · Q1 5:54: C. Williams run for 11 yds for a TD, (J. Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +33.5 pts (now 41%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
TD · Q3 10:56: Richard Reese 2 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick) — BAY win probability +23.9 pts (now 65%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
TD · Q3 4:52: Drake Stoops 9 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Zach Schmit Kick) — OU win probability +21.9 pts (now 57%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
TD · Q4 4:05: Eric Gray 1 Yd Run (Zach Schmit Kick) — OU win probability +32.6 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).

Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs

OU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3BAY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6

Q1 1:37BAY 4th & 13 at BAY 22, tied
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snap
Go for it
39.7%−1.0
19% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
40.6%
average punt
Q2 12:59BAY 4th & 8 at OU 32, tied
Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.7% before the snap
Go for it
41.5%−0.1
34% to convert
Field goalTheir call
41.6%
51% to make
Punt
41.1%−0.5
average punt
Q2 11:02OU 4th & 1 at BAY 35, down 3
Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.9% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
57.8%
71% to convert
Field goal
55.9%−2.0
45% to make
Punt
55.5%−2.4
average punt
Q2 0:54BAY 4th & 18 at BAY 24, up 3
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
Go for it
42.4%−3.8
12% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
46.2%
average punt
Q3 9:27OU 4th & 13 at OU 22, down 10
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
Go for it
31.1%−2.6
19% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
33.6%
average punt
Q3 7:08BAY 4th & 15 at BAY 40, up 10
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snap
Go for it
63.7%−3.1
17% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
66.8%
average punt
Q3 3:28BAY 4th & 16 at BAY 32, up 3
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.1% before the snap
Go for it
48.1%−6.3
15% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
54.4%
average punt
Q4 14:50OU 4th & 4 at BAY 46, down 3
Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 49.8% before the snap
Go for it
50.8%
48% to convert
Field goal
46.3%−4.5
23% to make
PuntTheir call
49.2%−1.5
average punt
Q4 14:09BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 29, up 3
Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.5% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
57.1%
71% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
Punt
52.2%−4.9
average punt

After touchdowns: kick or go for two?

OU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4

Q1 11:13OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
60.7%
97% to make
Go for two
60.6%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q1 5:54BAY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
40.0%
97% to make
Go for two
39.9%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q1 3:50BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
43.8%
97% to make
Go for two
43.7%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q1 3:01OU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
59.5%
97% to make
Go for two
59.4%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q2 9:06BAY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
53.1%
97% to make
Go for two
53.0%−0.1
45% to convert
Q2 6:46OU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
54.3%
97% to make
Go for two
54.2%−0.1
45% to convert
Q3 10:56BAY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
63.9%
97% to make
Go for two
63.7%−0.2
45% to convert
Q3 4:52OU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
47.3%
97% to make
Go for two
47.0%−0.2
45% to convert

Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump

Download drive chart

OUDrive 1TD

16 plays · 75 yds · 0:0062% → 62%

Q1 11:13

3RD & 9

OPP 10

+10

62.1%

D. Gabriel run for 10 yds for a TD, (Z. Schmit KICK)Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

BAYDrive 2TD

1 play · 63 yds · 0:0041% → 41%

Q1 5:54

3RD & 2

OPP 11

+11

59.2%

C. Williams run for 11 yds for a TD, (J. Mayers KICK)Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

OUDrive 3INT

1 play · 6 yds · 0:0060% → 60%

Q1 5:01

3RD & 4

OWN 31

60.0%

Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Brayden Willis, broken up by TJ FranklinSimilar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

BAYDrive 4TD

1 play · 26 yds · 0:0046% → 46%

Q1 3:50

2ND & GOAL

OPP 6

54.4%

J. Nabors run for 6 yds for a TD, (J. Mayers KICK)Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

OUDrive 5TD

1 play · 75 yds · 0:0061% → 61%

Q1 3:01

1ST & 10

OWN 37

+63

60.6%

Marvin Mims 63 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Zach Schmit Kick)Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

BAYDrive 6PUNT

1 play · -3 yds · 0:0040% → 40%

Q1 1:37

4TH & 13

OWN 22

60.5%

Issac Power punt for 46 ydsSimilar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

OUDrive 7INT

1 play · 11 yds · 0:0060% → 60%

Q2 14:50

3RD & 9

OWN 43

60.4%

Dillon Gabriel pass interceptedSimilar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

BAYDrive 8FG

1 play · 2 yds · 0:0043% → 43%

Q2 12:59

4TH & 8

OPP 32

+49

57.2%

John Mayers 49 yd FG GOODSimilar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

OUDrive 9DOWNS

1 play · 40 yds · 0:0059% → 59%

Q2 11:02

4TH & 1

OPP 35

58.5%

Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

BAYDrive 10TD

1 play · 65 yds · 0:0053% → 53%

Q2 9:06

1ST & GOAL

OPP 1

47.5%

Craig Williams 1 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

OUDrive 11TD

1 play · 75 yds · 0:0059% → 59%

Q2 6:46

2ND & 1

OPP 5

58.7%

Eric Gray 5 Yd Run (Zach Schmit Kick)Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

BAYDrive 12INT

1 play · 42 yds · 0:0049% → 49%

Q2 3:10

2ND & 9

OPP 33

50.6%

Blake Shapen pass interceptedSimilar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

OUDrive 13INT

1 play · 30 yds · 0:0057% → 57%

Q2 1:52

1ST & 10

56.9%

Dillon Gabriel pass interceptedSimilar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

BAYDrive 14PUNT

1 play · -8 yds · 0:0046% → 46%

Q2 0:54

4TH & 18

OWN 24

54.2%

Issac Power punt for 38 yds , Marvin Mims Jr. returns for 6 yds to the Okla 44Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

OUDrive 15MISSED FG

4 plays · 17 yds · 0:0055% → 59%

Q2 0:44

2ND & 10

OWN 44

+16

54.7%

Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marvin Mims Jr. for 16 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar

Q2 0:44

1ST & 10

OPP 40

57.1%

pass incomplete to Jalil FarooqSimilar

Q2 0:44

2ND & 10

OPP 40

+16

57.0%

Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 16 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar

Q2 0:44

1ST & 10

OPP 24

-15

58.5%

OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive holding (Andrew Raym) to the Bayl 39Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

BAYDrive 16TD

1 play · 75 yds · 0:0065% → 65%

Q3 10:56

1ST & GOAL

OPP 2

34.6%

Richard Reese 2 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

OUDrive 17PUNT

1 play · -3 yds · 0:0033% → 33%

Q3 9:27

4TH & 13

OWN 22

+33

32.6%

Michael Turk punt for 48 yds OKLAHOMA Penalty, kick catching interference (Gentry Williams) to the Bayl 45Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

BAYDrive 18PUNT

1 play · -5 yds · 0:0065% → 65%

Q3 7:08

4TH & 15

OWN 40

34.6%

Issac Power punt for 40 yds , Marvin Mims Jr. returns for 3 yds to the Okla 23Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

OUDrive 19TD

1 play · 77 yds · 0:0057% → 57%

Q3 4:52

1ST & GOAL

OPP 9

56.5%

Drake Stoops 9 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Zach Schmit Kick)Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

BAYDrive 20PUNT

2 plays · 7 yds · 3:2851% → 55%

Q3 3:28

4TH & 16

OWN 32

49.2%

Issac Power punt for 45 ydsSimilar

Q3 0:00

1ST & 10

OWN 25

+13

45.1%

Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 13 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

OUDrive 21PUNT

1 play · 31 yds · 0:0050% → 50%

Q4 14:50

4TH & 4

OPP 46

50.0%

Michael Turk punt for 46 ydsSimilar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

BAYDrive 22TD

11 plays · 80 yds · 14:0955% → 86%

Q4 14:09

3RD & 4

OWN 26

45.5%

Blake Shapen run for 3 yds to the Bayl 29Similar

Q4 14:09

4TH & 1

OWN 29

46.8%

Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar

Q4 14:09

1ST & 10

OWN 31

43.9%

Qualan Jones run for 8 yds to the Bayl 39Similar

Q4 14:09

2ND & 2

OWN 39

41.6%

Qualan Jones run for 6 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar

Q4 14:09

1ST & 10

OWN 45

+15

41.6%

Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 15 yds to the Okla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar

Q4 14:09

1ST & 10

OPP 40

+10

40.7%

Craig Williams run for 10 yds to the Okla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar

Q4 14:09

1ST & 10

OPP 30

+12

39.3%

Craig Williams run for 12 yds to the Okla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar

Q4 14:09

1ST & 10

OPP 18

38.8%

Qualan Jones run for 8 yds to the Okla 10Similar

Q4 9:15

2ND & 2

OPP 10

+10

30.7%

Qualan Jones 10 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)Similar

Q4 0:00

1ST & 10

OWN 20

14.2%

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Josh Cameron, broken up by DaShaun WhiteSimilar

Q4 0:00

2ND & 10

OWN 20

14.5%

Craig Williams run for 6 yds to the Bayl 26Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

OUDrive 23TD

14 plays · 75 yds · 4:0547% → 35%

Q4 4:05

1ST & GOAL

OPP 1

47.1%

Eric Gray 1 Yd Run (Zach Schmit Kick)Similar

Q4 0:00

1ST & 10

OWN 25

17.9%

Dillon Gabriel run for 2 yds to the Okla 27Similar

Q4 0:00

2ND & 8

OWN 27

18.0%

Eric Gray run for 2 yds to the Okla 29Similar

Q4 0:00

3RD & 6

OWN 29

17.5%

Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brayden Willis for 7 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar

Q4 0:00

1ST & 10

OWN 36

20.0%

Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Eric Gray for 9 yds to the Okla 45Similar

Q4 0:00

2ND & 1

OWN 45

-2

27.6%

Eric Gray run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 43Similar

Q4 0:00

3RD & 3

OWN 43

21.4%

Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 4 yds to the Okla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar

Q4 0:00

1ST & 10

OWN 47

22.5%

Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jalil Farooq BAYLOR Penalty, substitution infraction (Craig Williams) to the Bayl 48Similar

Q4 0:00

1ST & 5

OPP 48

29.2%

Marcus Major run for 3 yds to the Bayl 45Similar

Q4 0:00

2ND & 2

OPP 45

30.4%

Marcus Major run for 2 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar

Q4 0:00

1ST & 10

OPP 43

25.4%

Dillon Gabriel run for 9 yds to the Bayl 34Similar

Q4 0:00

2ND & 1

OPP 34

+17

35.0%

Eric Gray run for 17 yds to the Bayl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar

Q4 0:00

1ST & 10

OPP 17

34.9%

Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Eric Gray for 3 yds to the Bayl 14Similar

Q4 0:00

2ND & 7

OPP 14

+13

34.9%

Dillon Gabriel run for 13 yds to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

BAYDrive 24Uncategorized

9 plays · 65 yds · 2:1185% → 89%

Q4 2:12

2ND & 7

OWN 46

14.7%

Craig Williams run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar

Q4 2:06

3RD & 3

+43

14.6%

Craig Williams run for 43 yds to the Okla 7 for a 1ST downSimilar

Q4 2:06

1ST & GOAL

OPP 7

-2

13.1%

Blake Shapen run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 9Similar

Q4 2:06

2ND & GOAL

OPP 9

-1

13.1%

Blake Shapen run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 10Similar

Q4 2:06

3RD & GOAL

OPP 10

-2

14.6%

Blake Shapen run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 10Similar

Q4 0:01

1ST & 10

OWN 25

12.3%

Craig Williams run for 3 yds to the Bayl 28Similar

Q4 0:01

2ND & 7

OWN 28

12.4%

Craig Williams run for 1 yd to the Bayl 29Similar

Q4 0:01

3RD & 6

OWN 29

+14

13.1%

Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 14 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar

Q4 0:01

1ST & 10

OWN 43

11.5%

Qualan Jones run for 3 yds to the Bayl 46Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

Biggest swings

TD · Q1 5:54

C. Williams run for 11 yds for a TD, (J. Mayers KICK)

-33.5

TD · Q4 4:05

Eric Gray 1 Yd Run (Zach Schmit Kick)

+32.6

TD · Q3 10:56

Richard Reese 2 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)

-23.9