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TCU

TCU 41 at West Virginia 31

WVU
2022 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2022 · Milan Puskar Stadium
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Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of GameTD+13.1WVU 43.2%Justin Johnson Jr. 5 Yd pass from JTDaniels (Casey Legg Kick)AWAY 21 - HOME 21 · Q2 1:35
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:35 · Justin Johnson Jr. 5 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Casey Legg Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 74Pregame prior−13.8Home team on offense+3.0Garbage-time factor−0.6Score differential−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:42: Quentin Johnston 55 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick) — TCU win probability +6.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:00: Kendre Miller 51 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick) — TCU win probability +13.0 pts (now 75%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:35: Justin Johnson Jr. 5 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Casey Legg Kick) — WVU win probability +13.1 pts (now 43%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:24: Emani Bailey 30 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick) — TCU win probability +10.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:12: Reese Smith 23 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Casey Legg Kick) — WVU win probability +31.6 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 10:40TCU 4th & 18 at WVU 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    64.6%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 1:35WVU 4th & 2 at TCU 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    31.7%−1.4
    92% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−8.4
    average punt
  3. Q3 13:09WVU 4th & 21 at WVU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−4.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  4. Q3 11:05WVU 4th & 8 at TCU 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−1.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    21.7%−10.0
    average punt
  5. Q3 10:12TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−1.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%
    average punt
  6. Q3 5:10WVU 4th & 4 at TCU 4, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    39.5%−1.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    27.8%−12.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 1:45TCU 4th & 3 at WVU 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    67.1%−1.4
    75% to make
    Punt
    55.5%−13.0
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:03TCU 4th & 12 at WVU 12, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−3.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.7%
    86% to make
    Punt
    51.6%−15.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:47WVU 4th & 19 at WVU 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−4.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:11TCU 4th & 5 at WVU 28, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.5%−0.2
    60% to make
    Punt
    71.2%−8.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:45WVU 4th & 1 at WVU 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.8%−2.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:53WVU 4th & 13 at WVU 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−1.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:20TCU 4th & 1 at WVU 29, up 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.4%−1.4
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    87.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    73.2%−14.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 6:02WVU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:27TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:47WVU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:42TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:00TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:35WVU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:24TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:12WVU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.7%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.0%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:20TCU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 46 yds · 4:0574% → 72%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
26.0%
Kendre Miller run for 6 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+6
26.2%
Max Duggan run for 6 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+27
26.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 27 yds to the WVirg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
26.4%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
26.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 5 yds to the WVirg 37Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+10
26.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 10 yds to the WVirg 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
26.9%
Emari Demercado run for 4 yds to the WVirg 23Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 6
OPP 23
-12
27.1%
Max Duggan sacked by Jared Bartlett for a loss of 12 yards to the WVirg 35Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 18
OPP 35
0
27.7%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Blake NowellSimilar
Q1 10:40
4TH & 18
OPP 35
0
28.0%
Jordy Sandy punt for 35 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 4:2028% → 34%
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
28.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to CJ Donaldson for no gain to the WVirg 20Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+31
28.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Treylan Davis for 16 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+36
29.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Sam James for 36 yds to the TCU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
29.4%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TCU 23Similar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 20
OPP 23
+11
29.7%
CJ Donaldson run for 11 yds to the TCU 12Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+10
30.0%
CJ Donaldson run for 10 yds to the TCU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
30.4%
CJ Donaldson run for 1 yd to the TCU 1Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
30.6%
CJ Donaldson run for no gain to the TCU 1Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
33.7%
CJ Donaldson 1 Yd Run (Casey Legg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 67 yds · 1:2867% → 69%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-4
32.8%
Max Duggan run for 6 yds to the TCU 39 TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TCU 29Similar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 14
OWN 29
0
33.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for no gain to the TCU 29Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 14
OWN 29
+71
30.8%
Taye Barber 71 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 4TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1231% → 39%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
31.0%
JT Daniels run for 3 yds to the WVirg 28Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
31.3%
CJ Donaldson run for 8 yds to the WVirg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
31.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 7 yds to the WVirg 43Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+38
33.0%
CJ Donaldson run for 38 yds to the TCU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-9
33.8%
Sam James run for 1 yd to the TCU 18 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TCU 28Similar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 19
OPP 28
+15
34.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 15 yds to the TCU 13Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+7
34.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Reese Smith for 7 yds to the TCU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
34.7%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the TCU 5Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
35.1%
CJ Donaldson run for 4 yds to the TCU 1Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.4%
CJ Donaldson 1 Yd Run (Casey Legg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5762% → 68%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
38.1%
TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TCU 15Similar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-1
38.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Kendre Miller for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 14Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+11
39.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 11 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
40.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 13 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
39.2%
Kendre Miller run for 7 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+55
32.3%
Quentin Johnston 55 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 6FUMBLE
11 plays · 25 yds · 4:2535% → 38%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
35.1%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the WVirg 27Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
35.3%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for 8 yds to the WVirg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
36.0%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-4 Yards) to the WVirg 31Similar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 14
OWN 31
+6
36.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Reese Smith for 6 yds to the WVirg 37Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
37.0%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the WVirg 42Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+9
37.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Garrett Greene for 9 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
39.3%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
39.0%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 6
OPP 45
-5
39.1%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 11
50
+20
37.9%
JT Daniels run for 20 yds to the TCU 49 JT Daniels fumbled, recovered by TCU Lwal Uguak , return for 19 yds to the TCU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7TD
1 play · 51 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
24.9%
Kendre Miller 51 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 8TD
19 plays · 89 yds · 5:0527% → 43%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
26.9%
Sam James run for 3 yds to the WVirg 14Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 7
OWN 14
0
26.9%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+5
26.1%
TCU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the WVirg 19Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+2
26.4%
CJ Donaldson run for 2 yds to the WVirg 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
27.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 1 yd to the WVirg 22Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
27.0%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+35
26.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 35 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
30.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Sam James for 6 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+4
30.1%
CJ Donaldson run for 4 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
31.1%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
31.1%
CJ Donaldson run for 4 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+16
29.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 16 yds to the TCU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
31.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Garrett Greene for 4 yds to the TCU 9Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+4
31.3%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the TCU 5Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 2
OPP 5
0
30.1%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the TCU 5Similar
Q2 1:35
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+5
43.2%
Justin Johnson Jr. 5 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Casey Legg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 0:4762% → 78%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
38.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 2 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+13
38.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 13 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
36.2%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
36.9%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+28
37.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 28 yds to the WVirg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
32.8%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
22.5%
Emani Bailey 30 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0828% → 27%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
27.6%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
27.0%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds to the WVirg 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 11FUMBLE
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:3528% → 26%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
27.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Sam James for 11 yds to the WVirg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
28.6%
CJ Donaldson run for 3 yds to the WVirg 39Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+1
29.6%
CJ Donaldson run for 1 yd to the WVirg 40Similar
Q3 13:22
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
28.1%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Bryce Ford-WheatonSimilar
Q3 13:22
4TH & 6
OWN 40
-15
27.2%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the WVirg 25Similar
Q3 13:09
4TH & 21
OWN 25
-3
26.1%
Oliver Straw punt for 55 yds , Noah Daniels returns for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 17 Noah Daniels fumbled, recovered by WVirg Malachi RuffinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 12FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4932% → 36%
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
32.1%
CJ Donaldson run for no gain to the TCU 17Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+4
32.1%
CJ Donaldson run for 4 yds to the TCU 13Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 6
OPP 13
-2
30.8%
JT Daniels sacked by Dylan Horton for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 15Similar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+33
36.3%
Casey Legg 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4066% → 64%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
33.8%
Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
33.6%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
34.8%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:12
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
36.0%
Jordy Sandy punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WVirg 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 54 yds · 4:4938% → 37%
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
37.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Cortez Braham for 15 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+24
39.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Sam James for 24 yds to the TCU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
41.5%
CJ Donaldson run for 4 yds to the TCU 15Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+2
41.9%
CJ Donaldson run for 2 yds to the TCU 13Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+5
38.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 5 yds to the TCU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
41.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 1 yd to the TCU 7Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
41.4%
JT Daniels run for 3 yds to the TCU 4Similar
Q3 5:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
39.6%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
37.4%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15FG
14 plays · 84 yds · 7:0066% → 79%
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
34.3%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+9
34.3%
Kendre Miller run for 9 yds to the TCU 13Similar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 1
OWN 13
+3
33.0%
Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the TCU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+57
31.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 57 yds to the WVirg 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
26.7%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-3
27.0%
Emari Demercado run for a loss of 3 yards to the WVirg 30Similar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 13
OPP 30
+10
29.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Emari Demercado for 10 yds to the WVirg 20Similar
Q3 1:45
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+11
29.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 11 yds to the WVirg 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
26.1%
Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the WVirg 7Similar
Q3 0:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
25.7%
Emari Demercado run for 5 yds to the WVirg 2 for a 1ST down WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Personal Foul (1 Yards) to the WVirg 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
25.7%
Emari Demercado run for a loss of 2 yards to the WVirg 3Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
25.7%
Quentin Johnston run for 2 yds to the WVirg 1Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-11
27.0%
Quentin Johnston run for a loss of 11 yards to the WVirg 12Similar
Q4 13:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
21.3%
Griffin Kell 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:0926% → 23%
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.6%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-9
25.1%
JT Daniels sacked by Jamoi Hodge for a loss of 9 yards to the WVirg 16Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 19
OWN 16
0
23.6%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:47
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
22.5%
Oliver Straw punt for 38 yds, downed at the TCU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17FG
5 plays · 26 yds · 2:1381% → 86%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+21
19.5%
Kendre Miller run for 21 yds to the WVirg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
17.6%
Kendre Miller run for 8 yds to the WVirg 25Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 2
OPP 25
0
16.2%
Max Duggan run for no gain to the WVirg 25Similar
Q4 9:43
3RD & 2
OPP 25
-3
15.9%
Max Duggan run for a loss of 3 yards to the WVirg 28Similar
Q4 9:11
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+46
14.1%
Griffin Kell 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 18TD
15 plays · 78 yds · 4:5414% → 45%
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
14.1%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+6
13.7%
CJ Donaldson run for 6 yds to the WVirg 28Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+10
13.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Sam James for 10 yds to the WVirg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
14.5%
JT Daniels sacked by Dylan Horton for a loss of 10 yards to the WVirg 28Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 20
OWN 28
+12
12.7%
TCU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (12 Yards) to the WVirg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
14.0%
Jaylen Anderson run for 5 yds to the WVirg 45Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
13.8%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+4
12.7%
Jaylen Anderson run for 4 yds to the WVirg 49Similar
Q4 5:45
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+2
12.2%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
13.1%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+8
12.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Sam James for 8 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+3
13.7%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
12.9%
TCU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the TCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
44.5%
Reese Smith 23 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Casey Legg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1279% → 78%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
21.1%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
21.2%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:56
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
22.0%
Max Duggan pass intercepted Malachi Ruffin return for no gain to the WVirg 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5735% → 31%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
35.3%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-3
34.4%
Jaylen Anderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the WVirg 13Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 13
OWN 13
0
32.6%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:53
4TH & 13
OWN 13
0
31.1%
Oliver Straw punt for 37 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21TD
11 plays · 50 yds · 2:2581% → 96%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
50
-1
19.1%
Kendre Miller run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 49Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+8
18.7%
Kendre Miller run for 8 yds to the WVirg 43Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+5
16.2%
Max Duggan run for 5 yds to the WVirg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
9.7%
Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the WVirg 35Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+2
8.1%
Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the WVirg 33Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+4
7.8%
Emari Demercado run for 4 yds to the WVirg 29Similar
Q4 0:20
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+29
3.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 29 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 22INT
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:093% → 3%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
3.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Jaylen Anderson for 15 yds to the WVirg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-37
3.2%
JT Daniels pass intercepted Bud Clark return for 37 yds to the WVirg 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:12
Reese Smith 23 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Casey Legg Kick)
+31.6
TD · Q2 1:35
Justin Johnson Jr. 5 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Casey Legg Kick)
+13.1
TD · Q2 7:00
Kendre Miller 51 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)
-13
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com