Try the model
BAY

Baylor 45 at Texas Tech 17

TTU
2022 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2022 · Jones AT&T Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:01 · Austin McNamara punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Gavin Holmes at the Bayl 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 51Home team on offense−0.9Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.5Pregame prior+6.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:39: Richard Reese run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +10.2 pts (now 58%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:13: Richard Reese run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +12.8 pts (now 76%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:09: Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 9 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +14.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:46: Behren Morton run for 8 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK) — TTU win probability +16.6 pts (now 39%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:46: Richard Reese run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +14.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7BAY made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:15BAY 4th & 2 at TTU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    44.1%−0.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    44.2%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:45TTU 4th & 4 at BAY 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    56.0%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    56.1%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:39BAY 4th & 5 at TTU 30, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.2%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    43.8%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:17BAY 4th & 3 at midfield, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    45.7%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:49BAY 4th & 3 at TTU 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    45.9%−1.0
    36% to make
    Punt
    45.9%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:01TTU 4th & 7 at TTU 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:42BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 46, up 3
    Close callPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.8%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:09TTU 4th & 7 at BAY 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    47.0%−5.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:51TTU 4th & 18 at TTU 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−3.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:42BAY 4th & 5 at TTU 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    61.2%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    59.9%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:46TTU 4th & 7 at BAY 8, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.8%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    20.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    13.7%−6.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:35TTU 4th & 2 at TTU 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.9%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:38BAY 4th & 8 at TTU 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    90.5%−1.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:11BAY 4th & 14 at BAY 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−1.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:23TTU 4th & 18 at TTU 36, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BAY made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q2 3:39BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:13BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:09BAY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:34TTU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:46TTU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:46BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:04BAY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:45BAY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1DOWNS
11 plays · 33 yds · 4:3341% → 41%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
59.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Richard Reese for 1 yd to the Bayl 26Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
59.5%
Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
59.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 8 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
59.4%
Qualan Jones run for 4 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-2
59.3%
Richard Reese run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 40Similar
Q1 12:03
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+9
59.5%
Blake Shapen run for 9 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
59.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 2 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
59.0%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+6
59.2%
Richard Reese run for 6 yds to the TexTc 43Similar
Q1 10:15
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+1
59.3%
Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the TexTc 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2DOWNS
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:2660% → 60%
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
60.0%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Jerand BradleySimilar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
59.8%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the TexTc 45Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 7
OWN 45
-5
59.8%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (Matt Keeler) to the TexTc 40Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+14
59.5%
Behren Morton run for 14 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
60.3%
Behren Morton pass complete to Xavier White for 6 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 4
OPP 40
0
60.3%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Trey ClevelandSimilar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
60.2%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Jerand BradleySimilar
Q1 8:45
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
59.7%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Nehemiah Martinez ISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3FG
9 plays · 30 yds · 4:0141% → 42%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
58.9%
Qualan Jones run for 3 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
58.8%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+10
59.1%
Richard Reese run for 10 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
58.5%
Jordan Nabors run for 6 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+6
58.4%
Richard Reese run for 6 yds to the TexTc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
58.2%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Kelsey JohnsonSimilar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
58.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 2 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+3
58.5%
Blake Shapen run for 3 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q1 4:39
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+48
58.4%
John Mayers 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4INT
8 plays · 43 yds · 1:4158% → 60%
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.0%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Myles PriceSimilar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-9
57.9%
Behren Morton sacked by Garmon Randolph for a loss of 9 yards to the TexTc 16Similar
Q1 3:54
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+39
57.3%
Behren Morton pass complete to Xavier White for 39 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
59.3%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
59.3%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Loic FouonjiSimilar
Q1 3:14
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+10
59.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 10 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-21
59.8%
Behren Morton pass intercepted Devin Lemear return for 21 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5DOWNS
11 plays · 34 yds · 4:5242% → 44%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
58.1%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the Bayl 22Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+11
57.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 11 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
57.3%
Richard Reese run for 10 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
56.6%
Richard Reese run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 40Similar
Q1 0:42
2ND & 13
OWN 40
0
57.1%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ben SimsSimilar
Q1 0:37
3RD & 13
OWN 40
+10
57.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:17
4TH & 3
50
+4
57.1%
Blake Shapen run for 4 yds to the TexTc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
55.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Nabors for 4 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+5
55.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Richard Reese for 5 yds to the TexTc 37Similar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 1
OPP 37
-2
55.1%
Richard Reese run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 39Similar
Q2 12:49
4TH & 3
OPP 39
-6
56.2%
Blake Shapen sacked by Tony Bradford Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the TexTc 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4159% → 57%
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
58.5%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 3 yds to the TexTc 48Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
58.7%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Mason TharpSimilar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
57.9%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Mason TharpSimilar
Q2 12:01
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
56.5%
Austin McNamara punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Gavin Holmes at the Bayl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 37 yds · 2:0943% → 44%
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+30
56.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 30 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
55.1%
Qualan Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 38Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+3
55.5%
Blake Shapen run for 3 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+5
55.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 5 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q2 9:42
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
55.6%
Issac Power punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexTc 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8FG
7 plays · 48 yds · 1:2557% → 60%
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
56.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Myles Price for 16 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
58.5%
Morton, Behren pass incomplete to Price, Myles, PENALTY BAYLOR personal foul (Hall, Gabe) 15 yards to the BAYLOR32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASTECH.Similar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
59.3%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 14 yds to the Bayl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
59.3%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+3
59.3%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 15Similar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
57.2%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Nehemiah Martinez ISimilar
Q2 8:09
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+33
60.4%
Trey Wolff 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2443% → 58%
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
57.0%
Richard Reese run for 19 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
55.0%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+6
54.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Richard Reese for 6 yds to the TexTc 48Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+4
54.6%
Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
54.1%
Shapen, Blake pass incomplete, PENALTY TEXASTECH holding 10 yards to the TEXASTECH34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BAYLOR.Similar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
53.4%
Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+6
53.0%
Qualan Jones run for 6 yds to the TexTc 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+17
52.0%
Richard Reese run for 17 yds to the TexTc 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
51.8%
Richard Reese run for 6 yds to the TexTc 1Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.6%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:4146% → 42%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
45.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the TexTc 28Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
45.7%
Tahj Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 27Similar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-10
43.4%
Behren Morton sacked by Brayden Utley and Matt Jones for a loss of 10 yards to the TexTc 17Similar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 18
OWN 17
-4
42.3%
Austin McNamara punt for 53 yds , Gavin Holmes returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 1:3558% → 76%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
41.8%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+30
41.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 30 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
38.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 5 yds to the TexTc 37Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
37.7%
Qualan Jones run for no gain to the TexTc 37Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
38.4%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 5
OPP 37
+23
40.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 23 yds to the TexTc 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
37.3%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Qualan JonesSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+12
37.2%
Shapen, Blake pass incomplete to Cameron, Josh, PENALTY TEXASTECH pass interference 12 yards to the TEXASTECH2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BAYLOR.Similar
Q2 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
36.9%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
37.0%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Gavin HolmesSimilar
Q2 0:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
24.2%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 31 yds · 0:0532% → 32%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.2%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+31
31.8%
Tahj Brooks run for 31 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13INT
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:2732% → 31%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
31.9%
Behren Morton sacked by Gabe Hall for a loss of 7 yards to the TexTc 18Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-2
31.3%
Behren Morton pass intercepted Mark Milton return for 2 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14TD
7 plays · 34 yds · 3:0172% → 89%
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
28.3%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+9
27.7%
Richard Reese run for 9 yds to the TexTc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
26.8%
Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the TexTc 20Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
26.0%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q3 12:27
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+10
26.3%
Richard Reese run for 10 yds to the TexTc 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
25.3%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the TexTc 9Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
11.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 9 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 3:3118% → 28%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
18.1%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 6 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
18.4%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 3 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q3 10:37
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
18.2%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 3 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
17.4%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Myles PriceSimilar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
16.9%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Brady BoydSimilar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+12
16.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Brady Boyd for 12 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
17.5%
Behren Morton run for 10 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
17.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 8 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 2
OPP 33
0
18.2%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Baylor CuppSimilar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+8
16.3%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 8 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
16.8%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Loic FouonjiSimilar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+8
16.3%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 8 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+16
15.6%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 16 yds to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
20.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Mason Tharp for no gain to the Bayl 1Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
27.9%
Behren Morton pass complete to Henry Teeter for 1 yd for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16FUMBLE
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:3378% → 82%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
21.8%
Blake Shapen run for 4 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
20.3%
Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 28Similar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+12
20.3%
Blake Shapen run for 12 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
18.3%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the Bayl 41Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
17.7%
Blake Shapen run for no gain to the Bayl 41 Blake Shapen fumbled, recovered by TexTc Rayshad WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 17TD
10 plays · 40 yds · 2:0424% → 39%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
23.8%
Tahj Brooks run for 12 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
24.5%
Tahj Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 31Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+14
23.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Baylor Cupp for 14 yds to the Bayl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
23.8%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Trey ClevelandSimilar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-5
23.5%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 21Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 14
OPP 21
+11
22.9%
Morton, Behren pass incomplete to Brooks, Tahj, PENALTY BAYLOR personal foul (Morgan, Christian) 11 yards to the BAYLOR10, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASTECH.Similar
Q3 3:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
23.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the Bayl 8Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
23.3%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Henry TeeterSimilar
Q3 2:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
22.5%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Baylor CuppSimilar
Q3 2:46
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+8
39.2%
Behren Morton run for 8 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5367% → 90%
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
32.7%
Jordan Nabors run for 2 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
32.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Qualan Jones for 5 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q3 1:36
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+16
31.6%
Richard Reese run for 16 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+25
29.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 25 yds to the TexTc 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
27.4%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ben SimsSimilar
Q3 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
27.6%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the TexTc 25Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+13
27.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Qualan Jones for 13 yds to the TexTc 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
24.4%
Richard Reese run for 7 yds to the TexTc 5Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+2
24.3%
Kyron Drones run for 2 yds to the TexTc 3Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+2
24.2%
Dillon Doyle run for 2 yds to the TexTc 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.7%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19INT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:3015% → 15%
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
15.2%
Tahj Brooks run for 6 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
15.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
15.5%
Tahj Brooks run for no gain to the TexTc 33Similar
Q4 11:35
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+4
14.9%
Tahj Brooks run for 4 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
15.3%
Donovan Smith pass intercepted Al Walcott return for 4 yds to the TexTc 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2292% → 92%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
8.4%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
8.0%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
8.2%
Blake Shapen run for no gain to the TexTc 46Similar
Q4 9:38
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
8.2%
Issac Power punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Xavier White at the TexTc 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21INT
7 plays · 56 yds · 1:2311% → 11%
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
11.1%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Jerand BradleySimilar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+27
8.6%
Behren Morton pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 27 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
10.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 17 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
10.6%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Jerand BradleySimilar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
10.2%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 2 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q4 8:31
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+10
10.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Baylor Cupp for 10 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
10.7%
Behren Morton pass intercepted, touchback. Tevin Williams III return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22PUNT
12 plays · 23 yds · 3:4993% → 96%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
7.1%
Richard Reese run for no gain to the Bayl 20Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+17
6.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 17 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
6.2%
Richard Reese run for 6 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+3
5.5%
Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+1
5.2%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
4.9%
Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 7
50
+3
4.8%
Jordan Nabors run for 3 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 4
OPP 47
-5
3.3%
Richard Reese run for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 48Similar
Q4 4:22
4TH & 9
OWN 48
-5
3.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 43Similar
Q4 4:11
4TH & 14
OWN 43
0
3.6%
Issac Power punt for 48 yds, downed at the TexTc 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-18
1.0%
Tyler Shough pass intercepted for a TD AJ McCarty return for 18 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:341% → 1%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
1.1%
Tyler Shough run for 4 yds to the TexTc 29 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-8
1.1%
Tyler Shough sacked by Garmon Randolph for a loss of 8 yards to the TexTc 36Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 18
OWN 36
+7
1.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 7 yds to the TexTc 43Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 11
OWN 43
-7
1.0%
Tyler Shough sacked by Gabe Hall for a loss of 7 yards to the TexTc 36Similar
Q4 2:23
4TH & 18
OWN 36
-10
0.9%
Tyler Shough sacked by Gabe Hall for a loss of 10 yards to the TexTc 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25TD
4 plays · 26 yds · 1:29100% → 100%
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
0.5%
Qualan Jones run for 4 yds to the TexTc 22Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+5
0.3%
Qualan Jones run for 5 yds to the TexTc 17Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+17
0.1%
Qualan Jones run for 17 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 27 yds · 0:360% → 0%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
0.1%
Tahj Brooks run for 15 yds to the TexTc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
0.1%
Tahj Brooks run for 4 yds to the TexTc 44Similar
Q4 0:02
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+8
0.1%
Tahj Brooks run for 8 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:46
Behren Morton run for 8 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)
+16.6
TD · Q4 12:46
Richard Reese run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)
-14.5
TD · Q3 11:09
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 9 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)
-14.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com