2022 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2022 · Jones AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadWVU aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreWVU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:09 · Oliver Straw punt for 63 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:35: Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK) — TTU win probability +3.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 12:25: Trey Wolff 46 yd FG GOOD — TTU win probability +4.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:14: Behren Morton pass complete to Xavier White for 55 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK) — TTU win probability +8.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:56: Behren Morton pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 12 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK) — TTU win probability +4.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:05: JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 28 yds for a TD, (Casey Legg KICK) — WVU win probability +4.2 pts (now 5%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 10 of 10WVU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 15:00TTU 4th & 4 at WVU 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call64.6%48% to convertField goal64.4%−0.134% to makePunt64.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 12:19WVU 4th & 7 at WVU 28, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snapGo for it34.6%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.7%average punt
- Q1 12:19TTU 4th & 1 at TTU 39, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call65.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt65.1%−0.2average punt
- Q1 12:19TTU 4th & 4 at WVU 20, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call65.4%47% to convertField goal65.4%−<0.175% to makePunt64.9%−0.5average punt
- Q1 8:35WVU 4th & 3 at TTU 27, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call32.0%52% to convertField goal31.7%−0.362% to makePunt30.0%−2.0average punt
- Q1 0:45WVU 4th & 8 at TTU 20, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.9% before the snapGo for it27.2%−0.532% to convertField goalTheir call27.8%75% to makePunt23.9%−3.8average punt
- Q2 12:25TTU 4th & 8 at WVU 28, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.2% before the snapGo for it71.7%−0.334% to convertField goalTheir call72.1%60% to makePunt68.5%−3.5average punt
- Q2 11:23WVU 4th & 15 at WVU 20, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snapGo for it23.3%−1.716% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.9%average punt
- Q2 11:23TTU 4th & 2 at WVU 49, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call76.6%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt75.5%−1.1average punt
- Q2 11:23TTU 4th & 2 at WVU 35, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call76.6%57% to convertField goal74.9%−1.745% to makePunt74.2%−2.4average punt
- Q2 7:19TTU 4th & 1 at WVU 22, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call77.7%71% to convertField goal75.9%−1.872% to makePunt71.0%−6.7average punt
- Q2 3:43WVU 4th & 10 at TTU 29, down 14Close callWent for it · 21.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call20.5%−0.529% to convertField goal20.9%58% to makePunt17.9%−3.1average punt
- Q2 1:32TTU 4th & 15 at WVU 43, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snapGo for it80.2%−0.517% to convertField goal80.6%−0.128% to makePuntTheir call80.7%average punt
- Q3 10:03WVU 4th & 15 at TTU 41, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snapGo for it5.5%−0.617% to convertField goal5.8%−0.332% to makePuntTheir call6.1%average punt
- Q3 3:58TTU 4th & 5 at TTU 30, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snapGo for it95.0%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.2%average punt
- Q4 11:58TTU 4th & 7 at WVU 8, up 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−<0.129% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%90% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
- Q4 10:21WVU 4th & 8 at WVU 27, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 1:09WVU 4th & 13 at WVU 37, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6WVU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 13:23TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.9%97% to makeGo for two64.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:35TTU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.4%97% to makeGo for two68.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:14TTU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.1%97% to makeGo for two94.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:56TTU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:05WVU Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.5%97% to makeGo for two4.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:46TTU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:33TTU Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTTUDrive 1TD8 plays · 75 yds · 1:3769% → 70%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
69.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Xavier White for 29 yds to the WVirg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
69.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 6 yds to the WVirg 40Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 40
+6
69.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Mason Tharp for 6 yds to the WVirg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
69.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Nehemiah Martinez I for 13 yds to the WVirg 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0431% → 30%
TTUDrive 3TD16 plays · 80 yds · 3:4470% → 73%
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
69.6%
Behren Morton pass complete to Mason Tharp for 10 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+3
69.6%
Behren Morton pass complete to Baylor Cupp for 3 yds to the TexTc 35Similar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
69.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 17 yds to the WVirg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
4TH & 4
OPP 34
0
69.6%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Jared Bartlett) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+4
69.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Xavier White for 4 yds to the WVirg 20Similar
Q1 12:19
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+19
69.6%
Behren Morton pass complete to Mason Tharp for 19 yds to the WVirg 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 4FG18 plays · 61 yds · 7:5028% → 28%
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+19
72.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Sam James for 19 yds to the WVirg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
71.8%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the WVirg 44Similar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+5
72.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 5 yds to the WVirg 49Similar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
71.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Brian Polendey for 4 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q1 8:35
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+5
71.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 5 yds to the TexTc 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
71.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 2 yds to the TexTc 20Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+6
73.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 6 yds to the TexTc 14Similar
Q1 1:28
3RD & 7
OPP 19
-1
73.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Sam James for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5FG12 plays · 47 yds · 3:2072% → 77%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
72.3%
Behren Morton pass complete to Nehemiah Martinez I for 15 yds to the TexTc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
73.5%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd to the TexTc 41 SaRodorick Thompson fumbled, recovered by TexTc Behren MortonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+7
73.3%
Behren Morton pass complete to Brady Boyd for 7 yds to the TexTc 48Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
73.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to SaRodorick Thompson for 3 yds to the WVirg 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+10
73.3%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 10 yds to the WVirg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 26
-10
73.4%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jerand Bradley) to the WVirg 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 6PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 1:0224% → 23%
Q2 11:23
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
76.9%
Oliver Straw punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Xavier White at the TexTc 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7DOWNS12 plays · 26 yds · 4:0479% → 79%
Q2 11:23
4TH & 2
OPP 49
+6
77.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Nehemiah Martinez I for 6 yds to the WVirg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+8
78.2%
Behren Morton pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 8 yds to the WVirg 35Similar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
78.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to SaRodorick Thompson for no gain to the WVirg 31Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+5
78.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 5 yds to the WVirg 22Similar
Q2 7:19
4TH & 1
OPP 22
-9
78.5%
Behren Morton sacked by Aubrey Burks for a loss of 9 yards to the WVirg 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 8DOWNS11 plays · 32 yds · 3:3622% → 21%
Q2 7:19
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
77.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Jeremiah Aaron for 8 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+11
76.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Sam James for 11 yds to the TexTc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
4TH & 10
OPP 29
-8
79.2%
JT Daniels sacked by Kosi Eldridge and Tyree Wilson for a loss of 8 yards to the TexTc 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 9PUNT10 plays · 20 yds · 2:1180% → 83%
Q2 3:43
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+3
80.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Nehemiah Martinez I for 3 yds to the WVirg 44Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 7
OPP 35
-10
80.8%
BROOKS, Tahj rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the WVU32 (MCLAURIN, Hershey). PENALTY TTU Holding on WRIGHT, Weston enforced 10 yards from the WVU35 to the WVU45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 10INT10 plays · 56 yds · 1:2518% → 20%
Q2 1:32
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+17
82.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 17 yds to the WVirg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+11
82.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Reese Smith for 11 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+15
81.2%
DANIELS, JT pass to the left incomplete intended for JAMES, Sam thrown to the TTU15. PENALTY TTU Pass Interference on TAYLOR-DEMERSON, Dadrion enforced 15 yards to the TTU28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
80.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to CJ Donaldson for 4 yds to the TexTc 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 12INT4 plays · -8 yds · 1:0516% → 16%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-10
83.5%
DONALDSON, CJ rush to the right for a gain of 8 yards to the WVU35 (TAYLOR-DEMERSON, Dadrion). PENALTY WVU Holding on POLENDEY, Brian enforced 10 yards from the WVU27 to the WVU17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13TD2 plays · 58 yds · 0:4186% → 94%
WVUDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 34 yds · 3:117% → 6%
TTUDrive 15TD12 plays · 91 yds · 3:0795% → 99%
Q3 10:03
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+15
94.9%
Behren Morton pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 15 yds to the TexTc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
94.9%
Behren Morton pass complete to Nehemiah Martinez I for 9 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+10
95.2%
Behren Morton pass complete to Xavier White for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 10
50
+10
95.2%
Behren Morton pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 10 yds to the WVirg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+27
95.3%
Behren Morton pass complete to Xavier White for 27 yds to the WVirg 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+12
99.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 12 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 16TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:511% → 5%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.3%
CJ Donaldson run for 2 yds to the WVirg 27 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the WVirg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
99.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 2 yds to the WVirg 39Similar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
50
+22
99.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Jeremiah Aaron for 22 yds to the TexTc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
95.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 28 yds for a TD, (Casey Legg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0796% → 97%
Q3 3:58
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+10
95.2%
Austin McNamara punt for 65 yds , Preston Fox returns for 10 yds to the WVirg 15Similar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
96.7%
DANIELS, JT pass to the left incomplete intended for JAMES, Sam broken up by WATERS, Marquis at the WVU43. PENALTY TTU Holding on WATERS, Marquis enforced 10 yards from the WVU15 to the WVU25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 18FUMBLE5 plays · 35 yds · 1:583% → 3%
Q3 3:58
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+18
96.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 18 yds to the WVirg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
96.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to CJ Donaldson for 3 yds to the WVirg 48Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+1
97.1%
CJ Donaldson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line CJ Donaldson fumbled, recovered by TexTc Tyrique Matthews , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19TD8 plays · 50 yds · 2:1498% → 100%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
50
+9
97.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Xavier White for 9 yds to the WVirg 41Similar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
97.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Nehemiah Martinez I for 6 yds to the WVirg 27Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+10
97.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 10 yds to the WVirg 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 20INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21FG8 plays · 48 yds · 2:42100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:370% → 0%
Q4 10:21
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Oliver Straw punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Xavier White at the TexTc 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23TD14 plays · 84 yds · 7:48100% → 100%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
99.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 8 yds to the TexTc 24Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 12
OWN 37
-3
99.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Xavier White for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 34Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+23
99.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Henry Teeter for 23 yds to the WVirg 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
100.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Brady Boyd for 2 yds for a TD, (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 12 yds · 1:240% → 0%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
100.0%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Jeremiah Aaron for 15 yds to the WVirg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:14
Behren Morton pass complete to Xavier White for 55 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)
+8.6
TD · Q3 5:05
JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 28 yds for a TD, (Casey Legg KICK)
-4.2
TD · Q3 6:56
Behren Morton pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 12 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)
+4.1