2022 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2022 · Boone Pickens Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreTEX score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:54 · Daniel Trejo punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:16: Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tanner Brown KICK) — OKST win probability +7.8 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q2 3:43: Roschon Johnson run for 52 yds for a TD, (Bert Auburn KICK) — TEX win probability +8.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:41: Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tanner Brown KICK) — OKST win probability +11.3 pts (now 36%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:54: Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 10 yds for a TD, (Tanner Brown KICK) — OKST win probability +27.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:09: Spencer Sanders pass complete to Bryson Green for 41 yds for a TD, (Tanner Brown KICK) — OKST win probability +31.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 8 of 11TEX made the numbers' call on 13 of 13
- Q1 13:21OKST 4th & 12 at TEX 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.4% before the snapGo for it35.3%−0.123% to convertField goalTheir call35.4%56% to makePunt35.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:37TEX 4th & 5 at TEX 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snapGo for it61.6%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.7%average punt
- Q1 7:07TEX 4th & 3 at OKST 28, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call61.4%52% to convertField goal61.2%−0.260% to makePunt60.0%−1.5average punt
- Q1 6:12OKST 4th & 2 at OKST 36, up 3Close callPunted · 38.7% before the snapGo for it38.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.7%−0.2average punt
- Q1 3:29OKST 4th & 8 at OKST 42, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snapGo for it36.8%−0.434% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.2%average punt
- Q1 1:58TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 41, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snapGo for it61.6%−0.729% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.4%average punt
- Q2 14:06OKST 4th & 4 at OKST 34, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snapGo for it37.7%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.9%average punt
- Q2 8:04TEX 4th & 17 at OKST 19, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.2% before the snapGo for it59.7%−1.813% to convertField goalTheir call61.5%77% to makePunt56.6%−4.9average punt
- Q2 1:49TEX 4th & 4 at TEX 31, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snapGo for it68.5%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.7%average punt
- Q3 13:44OKST 4th & 18 at OKST 9, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snapGo for it27.7%−2.911% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.6%average punt
- Q3 12:26TEX 4th & 6 at OKST 48, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.7% before the snapGo for it71.3%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.6%average punt
- Q3 10:44OKST 4th & 12 at OKST 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snapGo for it28.0%−2.822% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.8%average punt
- Q3 9:54TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 28, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snapGo for it67.4%−2.028% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.4%average punt
- Q3 7:04OKST 4th & 5 at TEX 44, down 7Close callPunted · 32.4% before the snapGo for it33.1%41% to convertField goal30.6%−2.527% to makePuntTheir call32.6%−0.5average punt
- Q3 5:12TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 47, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snapGo for it70.7%−1.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.3%average punt
- Q3 3:17OKST 4th & 7 at OKST 4, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snapGo for it25.8%−2.532% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.3%average punt
- Q3 2:10TEX 4th & 5 at OKST 15, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.1% before the snapGo for it73.1%−0.539% to convertField goalTheir call73.5%83% to makePunt65.8%−7.7average punt
- Q3 0:29OKST 4th & 8 at TEX 23, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.9% before the snapGo for it20.8%−0.833% to convertField goalTheir call21.6%70% to makePunt14.2%−7.3average punt
- Q4 14:47TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 25, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snapGo for it71.2%−2.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.6%average punt
- Q4 8:38TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snapGo for it46.1%−4.534% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.6%average punt
- Q4 7:58OKST 4th & 11 at OKST 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snapGo for it48.5%−5.826% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.3%average punt
- Q4 4:57TEX 4th & 7 at OKST 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.3% before the snapGo for it50.0%−0.437% to convertField goalTheir call50.4%60% to makePunt31.3%−19.1average punt
- Q4 1:23TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 36, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.7%34% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.6%−2.1average punt
- Q4 1:00OKST 4th & 4 at OKST 47, up 7Close callPunted · 94.8% before the snapGo for it94.6%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.5%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TEX made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 12:01TEX Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.4%97% to makeGo for two64.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:39OKST Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call37.7%97% to makeGo for two37.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:21TEX Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.9%97% to makeGo for two62.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:28TEX Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.6%97% to makeGo for two68.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:16OKST Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call38.3%97% to makeGo for two38.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:43TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.2%97% to makeGo for two74.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:41OKST Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call30.4%97% to makeGo for two30.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:54OKST Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.3%97% to makeGo for two48.0%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 3:09OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.2%97% to makeGo for two84.2%−2.045% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEXDrive 1INT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4468% → 68%
Q1 14:12
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-16
32.0%
Quinn Ewers pass intercepted Jason Taylor II return for 16 yds to the Texas 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2FG4 plays · -2 yds · 0:2732% → 33%
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
32.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dominic Richardson for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3TD5 plays · 71 yds · 1:0267% → 68%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
32.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Keilan Robinson for 19 yds to the OKSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4TD10 plays · 75 yds · 2:1633% → 35%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
32.6%
Sanders, Spencer pass incomplete to Johnson Jr., Stephon, PENALTY TEXAS pass interference 15 yards to the OKLAST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST.Similar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
33.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 1 yd to the OKSt 41Similar
Q1 10:41
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+40
33.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Bryson Green for 40 yds to the Texas 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+5
33.8%
Sanders, Spencer pass incomplete to Richardson, Dominic, PENALTY TEXAS offside 5 yards to the TEXAS13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+5
33.8%
TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Texas 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5FUMBLE5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5665% → 64%
Q1 8:37
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
35.6%
Daniel Trejo punt for 35 yds , Brennan Presley returns for no gain to the OKSt 35 Brennan Presley fumbled, recovered by Texas Keilan RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6DOWNS4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2366% → 64%
Q1 7:07
4TH & 3
OPP 28
0
35.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Roschon Johnson for no gain to the OKSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4836% → 36%
TEXDrive 8TD5 plays · 51 yds · 1:3964% → 67%
OKSTDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4035% → 34%
Q1 3:29
4TH & 8
OWN 42
+1
34.3%
Tom Hutton punt for 47 yds , Xavier Worthy returns for 1 yd to the Texas 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 29 yds · 1:2065% → 64%
Q1 2:47
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+23
34.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 23 yds to the Texas 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 27 yds · 2:4235% → 35%
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+11
34.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Bryson Green for 11 yds to the OKSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
35.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 7 yds to the OKSt 25Similar
Q1 0:33
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+2
35.0%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the OKSt 28 Dominic Richardson fumbled, recovered by OKSt Spencer Sanders for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+5
34.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Braylin Presley for 5 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
35.2%
Tom Hutton punt blocked by Morice Blackwell Jr. blocked by Morice Blackwell Jr. Anthony Cook return for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12TD2 plays · 42 yds · 0:2766% → 72%
OKSTDrive 13TD10 plays · 75 yds · 2:0830% → 39%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
30.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Stephon Johnson Jr. for 4 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+24
30.3%
Spencer Sanders run for 9 yds to the Texas 49 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
30.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 5 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+5
31.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Bryson Green for 5 yds to the Texas 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
31.5%
Sanders, Spencer pass incomplete to Shettron, Talyn, PENALTY TEXAS offside 5 yards to the TEXAS21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 5
OPP 21
+20
31.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 20 yds to the Texas 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14FG10 plays · 40 yds · 2:5565% → 69%
OKSTDrive 15INT10 plays · 63 yds · 2:4032% → 35%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
31.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Stephon Johnson Jr. for 8 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
32.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 5 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
32.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 4 yds to the OKSt 42Similar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+25
33.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Stephon Johnson Jr. for 25 yds to the Texas 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
35.1%
Sanders, Spencer pass incomplete to Green, Bryson, PENALTY TEXAS pass interference 15 yards to the TEXAS12, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST.Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
35.1%
Spencer Sanders pass intercepted, touchback. Ryan Watts return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16TD8 plays · 80 yds · 1:2269% → 79%
OKSTDrive 17TD6 plays · 85 yds · 0:4923% → 36%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+23
22.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Stephon Johnson Jr. for 23 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
24.1%
Sanders, Spencer pass incomplete to Johnson Jr., Stephon, PENALTY TEXAS roughing passer off-setting, PENALTY OKLAST Holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
25.0%
Sanders, Spencer pass incomplete to Shettron, Talyn, PENALTY TEXAS pass interference 9 yards to the TEXAS2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 0:4270% → 70%
OKSTDrive 19DOWNS13 plays · 54 yds · 1:4530% → 32%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
30.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 9 yds to the OKSt 24Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+12
30.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 12 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+12
30.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 12 yds to the OKSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
32.8%
Jaden Nixon pass complete to Spencer Sanders for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 8
50
+6
33.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 6 yds to the Texas 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 1:0131% → 29%
TEXDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0773% → 72%
Q3 13:05
3RD & 5
OPP 47
-1
27.0%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Trace Ford for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 1:2930% → 28%
Q3 11:54
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+15
30.1%
Sanders, Spencer pass incomplete to Green, Bryson, PENALTY TEXAS pass interference 15 yards to the OKLAST29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST.Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 11
OWN 28
-1
30.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dominic Richardson for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4272% → 69%
Q3 9:54
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
30.7%
Daniel Trejo punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24PUNT6 plays · 25 yds · 2:3631% → 31%
TEXDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 27 yds · 1:4072% → 72%
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+27
27.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 27 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 26PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4229% → 27%
TEXDrive 27FG4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0177% → 78%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 28FG8 plays · 52 yds · 1:3121% → 29%
TEXDrive 29PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3275% → 73%
OKSTDrive 30TD12 plays · 66 yds · 4:4428% → 61%
Q4 14:16
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+11
27.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 11 yds to the OKSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
30.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Stephon Johnson Jr. for 8 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+1
31.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 1 yd to the Texas 44Similar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+14
33.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 14 yds to the Texas 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
60.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 10 yds for a TD, (Tanner Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 31PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 1:0252% → 49%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 32PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:2956% → 51%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
56.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaden Nixon for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 33MISSED FG8 plays · 50 yds · 2:4850% → 53%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+20
49.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 20 yds to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 34TD6 plays · 72 yds · 1:4056% → 94%
Q4 4:17
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+9
55.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 9 yds to the OKSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
59.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Ollie Gordon for 14 yds to the Texas 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+41
93.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Bryson Green for 41 yds for a TD, (Tanner Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 35INT9 plays · 15 yds · 1:3413% → 11%
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
87.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 13 yds to the Texas 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 12
OWN 32
-10
88.2%
Ewers, Quinn rush for 33 yards to the OKLAST35, PENALTY TEXAS holding 10 yards to the TEXAS22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 22
OWN 22
+19
88.6%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 19 yds to the Texas 41Similar
Q4 1:23
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
88.7%
Quinn Ewers pass intercepted Jason Taylor II return for no gain to the OKSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 36PUNT7 plays · 6 yds · 0:1995% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 37INT9 plays · 38 yds · 0:488% → 11%
Q4 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+12
92.6%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Tarique Milton for 12 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+10
92.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 10 yds to the Texas 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 15
OWN 41
+21
92.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 21 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-8
89.3%
Quinn Ewers pass intercepted Kendal Daniels return for 8 yds to the OKSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 38END OF GAME1 play · -4 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:09
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Bryson Green for 41 yds for a TD, (Tanner Brown KICK)
+31.1
TD · Q4 9:54
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 10 yds for a TD, (Tanner Brown KICK)
+27.3
TD · Q2 2:41
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tanner Brown KICK)
+11.3